Anyone else excited about Portis in 2007? (1 Viewer)

[cscmtp]

Seeing how well Betts has played in the last month, going over 100 yards per game, and getting involved in the passing game, makes me VERY excited about Portis' outlook in 2007. Here's why:

1. The offense looks years better with Campbell at the helm. The kid throws a beautiful deep ball that Brunell hasn't thrown since those 2 late passes in the 4th quarter against Dallas in 2005. I believe this new threat of a passing game has opened up the running game BIG TIME.

2. Al Saunders and the offense is finally starting to gel. If you watched the first half of the season, the play calling was terrible, all we saw was 5-10 yard passes and screens, and teams stacked 8 in the box EVERY down. This isn't happening anymore. The Skins actually look like an NFL offense.

3. Portis will be well rested. He's had a lot of carries his first 4 years in the league, and I think this season could be a blessing for his body long term. I also think Gibbs saw the results of Marty resting LT all preseason this year. I expect Portis won't hardly sniff the field next year in the preseason, and I think that's a GREAT thing.

4. Schedule- This year, outside of the NFC East, the Skins played the NFC and AFC South, two of the best divisions in football IMO. Next year they play the NFC North (worst division hands down) and AFC East.

5. Portis Pride. Betts has done a great job, and there has been some talk that the Skins could trade Portis. I'm sure Portis is going to be motivated to remind everyone how good he really is. If Portis could score 7 TDs when the offense was horrible the first half of the year, imagine what he could do next year if the offense continues to progress.

I believe Portis will finish as one of the top 3 RBs in FF next year. Discuss.

 

[Colt Of Personality]

From your lips to God's ears

I'm not as excited, but you can have a much worse RB than Portis. I just wish he stayed on the Broncos personally.

But some very good rationale you have. Good job.

 

[Godsbrother]

You aren't worried that Bett's performances and contract extension aren't going to eat into Portis' carries?

 

[GrandpaRox]

With Betts contract extension and performance while Portis has been out, I expect Portis to get fewer touches per game to try to keep him healthy.

I see Portis going from stud to a semi RBBC situation.

So no I am not a bit excited about Portis in 2007, I think it takes him out of the top 10 as far as FF points.

 

[Banger]

I agree. This uncertainty regarding Betts will create a very good opportunity to get Portis cheaper than he should be. Betts is a backup, a good one but a backup. Portis has elite ability, the key is staying healthy.

 

[Rounders]

I agree with cscmtp. I'm exciting for Portis next year and when it comes time to draft I think that he's the #4 RB off the board.

1) LT

2) LJ

3) Action Jackson

4) Portis

He's one of the few RBs in the league that is capable of finishing ahead of the big 2. I will be happy with Portis on my fantasy squad next year.

Oh and I own him in 2 dynasty leagues, so maybe I'm a little more hopeful than most.

 

[Banger]

I agree with cscmtp. I'm exciting for Portis next year and when it comes time to draft I think that he's the #4 RB off the board.1) LT2) LJ3) Action Jackson4) PortisHe's one of the few RBs in the league that is capable of finishing ahead of the big 2. I will be happy with Portis on my fantasy squad next year.Oh and I own him in 2 dynasty leagues, so maybe I'm a little more hopeful than most.

I own him in none and agree with you. Betts and the injuries present the perfect opportunity to deal for him "on the cheap".

 

[malice]

I'm guessing Portis is going to be more valuable in PPR leagues, but Betts is going to be the stud at the goal line (aka MBIII, Brandon Jacobs). Gibbs has been singing the praises of Betts for a while now, and now that he's proved his worth, I see it tough for Portis to be THE GUY from now on. Splitting the carries not only gets the most out of both backs, but will keep Portis healthy which he's had problems with for the past few years.

 

[swirvenirvin]

With Betts contract extension and performance while Portis has been out, I expect Portis to get fewer touches per game to try to keep him healthy.

I see Portis going from stud to a semi RBBC situation.

So no I am not a bit excited about Portis in 2007, I think it takes him out of the top 10 as far as FF points.

RBBC

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'm guessing Portis is going to be more valuable in PPR leagues, but Betts is going to be the stud at the goal line (aka MBIII, Brandon Jacobs).

Then why did Portis have 7 TDs to Betts 1 through the first 10 weeks of the season?Portis is still a top 6-7 dynasty RB at worst, and I could see him as high as 4.

 

[browntown]

Those who own Portis in a keeper shouldn't necessarily be worried, but i think they're dreaming if they realistically think he's still the top 4 back he was coming into this year (pre injury). On talent alone, this is an elite player. But his situation could certainly be better. I don't know why someone might think he'd have an increased value in PPR, Betts is a superior receiver and better in pass protection. Goalline is a gamble between the two, but seeing as Portis is the better pure runner, he's likely to get his fair share of carries there either way, though don't be surprised if Betts does as well.

When you have a durable guy like Tomlinson of Johnson, sure give him the ball 30 times a game and get out of the way. They've proven that they can certainly handle the workload, though in the long term it will certainly take away from their dynasty league value. With Portis, he's not exactly the most durable guy, and doesn't have the body to consistently handle workhorse type touches. He'll be more effective with less touches, and it will prolong his career. But unfortunately you can't become a top 4 RB when you're giving up 3rd down's and sharing with another solid back, in Betts, who's going to be involved all over the place.

Unfortunately NFL coaches dont' care about fantasy owners. The best interest of any team is to keep their best players fresh when solid alternatives are available. In Washington's case, they'd be foolish to continue to give Portis 25 carries a game when they have a guy on the bench who's proven in this late season run that he deserves at least 10 touches a game himself. I see something between RB10-15 for Portis next season.

 

[malice]

I'm guessing Portis is going to be more valuable in PPR leagues, but Betts is going to be the stud at the goal line (aka MBIII, Brandon Jacobs).

Then why did Portis have 7 TDs to Betts 1 through the first 10 weeks of the season?Portis is still a top 6-7 dynasty RB at worst, and I could see him as high as 4.

1) Because Portis was healthy2) Because Betts hadn't been battle-tested like he has since Portis got hurt.Gibbs has been looking for an excuse to play Betts, and Saunders has also compared Portis/Betts to Holmes/Johnson. I don't see how these guys don't get the itch to play them both starting with next year.

 

[Kleck.]

You aren't worried that Bett's performances and contract extension aren't going to eat into Portis' carries?

No. Portis will get his 300+.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Doesn't Betts have like 2 TD's this season?

I don't share the optimism of the OP, but I think Portis is a nice buy low candidate because of all this Betts-love and the injury.

 

[gman74]

I'm guessing Portis is going to be more valuable in PPR leagues, but Betts is going to be the stud at the goal line (aka MBIII, Brandon Jacobs).

Then why did Portis have 7 TDs to Betts 1 through the first 10 weeks of the season?Portis is still a top 6-7 dynasty RB at worst, and I could see him as high as 4.

I would take a healthy kj and westy over portis all day. I dont see why people have portis lovenote he is not in denver anymore

 

[suchislife]

I have been a Portis owner since he went to the Redskins in 2004. The highest he's finished in my league, with fairly conventional scoring (non-PPR), is 6th. Every year I get excited that "this is his year", but it doesn't happen. And that was before the emergence of Betts. He's a solid #1 RB to have, but imo just hasn't reached the status of uber-stud. And I just can't see it happening in '07.

I can see Portis being in the top 10, but players like Gore, Westbrook, SJackson finishing ahead of him.

 

[Kleck.]

I'm guessing Portis is going to be more valuable in PPR leagues, but Betts is going to be the stud at the goal line (aka MBIII, Brandon Jacobs).

Then why did Portis have 7 TDs to Betts 1 through the first 10 weeks of the season?Portis is still a top 6-7 dynasty RB at worst, and I could see him as high as 4.

I would take a healthy kj and westy over portis all day. I dont see why people have portis lovenote he is not in denver anymore

Portis is currently the #8 RB on a PPG basis. Thats not too bad considering he never really played healthy this year.

 

[JayMan]

Poor Portis has the following 5 seasons since entering the NFL:

'02: 1872 / 17

'03: 1905 / 14

'04: 1550 / 7

'05: 1732 / 11

'06: 693 / 7 -> 1386 / 14

And unfortunately - he's 25 years old...

Ladell surely impressed everyone... especially when he and Portis were healthy...

Of course, the extension indicates that Portis will surely be gone by next year... same was said of Portis GL opportunities when the 'Skins traded for Duckett at the beginning of the season - wait, is the Data Dominator malfunctioning? It shows 0TD for Duckett this year?...

 

[Gr00vus]

His propensity for getting injured is disturbing.

 

[Todem]

His propensity for getting injured is disturbing.

Huh??? So other than this year he has not been durable enough for ya?'02: 1872 / 17'03: 1905 / 14'04: 1550 / 7'05: 1732 / 11So what's wrong with that stat line???Portis is a super buy low and will be a top 5 back next season.He would have been this year had he not been injured.

 

[Gr00vus]

His propensity for getting injured is disturbing.

Huh??? So other than this year he has not been durable enough for ya?He would have been this year had he not been injured.

Back in 2003 he missed three games and played through injuries in several others, he missed the last two weeks of the season - which would mean if you made it to the finals you'd be without your likely #1 player. He's only made it through all 16 games twice in his five year career, and including his first year in that is questionable since he barely played 3 of the first 4 games that year.For a guy his age he's been getting hurt too much for me to want to invest heavily in him. If you can get him cheap in a dynasty situation, that's great. But if you're in a redraft, you're rolling the dice with him, and that's not a situation I want to be in with a top 5 pick - if he goes toward the back half of the 1st round or later then maybe I'd feel more comfortable about it.

 

[#1DetroitFan]

I have Portis in a keeper - auction - league. Because he was dropped when he got hurt and I picked him up he will only cost me 7% of my salary cap. My decision is between three players SJAX-15%, FWP-5% or Portis-7% to keep. I can only keep two. Keeping Portis is attractive but Betts has muddied the waters. Either way it will be interesting. I am confident that at this time next year someone will bump this thread to show everyone that they had predicted the correct outcome for Portis. My crystal ball is indicating that Portis will be a top 5-10 back.

 

[suchislife]

'02: 1872 / 17'03: 1905 / 14'04: 1550 / 7'05: 1732 / 11So what's wrong with that stat line???Portis is a super buy low and will be a top 5 back next season.He would have been this year had he not been injured.

First, the OP stated he believed CP would be a top 3 RB in '07. I stated in my earlier post that he hasn't finished higher than 6th in my league since joining the Redskins in '04. Portis played in 8 games this year and has 523 RuYds and 170 ReYds. That amounts to a season of 1046 RuYds and 340 ReYds. Barely top 10. I understand some of those games Portis wasn't completely healthy, but there are RB's ranked higher that have played injured this season as well.As a Portis Dynasty owner, I've been expecting top 3 for 3 seasons now. Hasn't happened yet and I don't share the optimism that that '07 will be the year.

 

[JayMan]

First, the OP stated he believed CP would be a top 3 RB in '07...

I think we can agree that Portis ceiling value for '07 is Top3...Of course, there are alot of variables that can influence that ranking, Betts is one of them, along with a possible injury... but I doubt that there are many RBs that are not affected by these same factors - other than LT and LJ...

If I had the 1.06 / 1.07 pick in redraft... I'd be hard press not to go with Portis... and choose Rudi / Gore / FWP / Brown instead...

 

[Bill]

Those who own Portis in a keeper shouldn't necessarily be worried, but i think they're dreaming if they realistically think he's still the top 4 back he was coming into this year (pre injury). On talent alone, this is an elite player. But his situation could certainly be better. I don't know why someone might think he'd have an increased value in PPR, Betts is a superior receiver and better in pass protection. Goalline is a gamble between the two, but seeing as Portis is the better pure runner, he's likely to get his fair share of carries there either way, though don't be surprised if Betts does as well.When you have a durable guy like Tomlinson of Johnson, sure give him the ball 30 times a game and get out of the way. They've proven that they can certainly handle the workload, though in the long term it will certainly take away from their dynasty league value. With Portis, he's not exactly the most durable guy, and doesn't have the body to consistently handle workhorse type touches. He'll be more effective with less touches, and it will prolong his career. But unfortunately you can't become a top 4 RB when you're giving up 3rd down's and sharing with another solid back, in Betts, who's going to be involved all over the place.Unfortunately NFL coaches dont' care about fantasy owners. The best interest of any team is to keep their best players fresh when solid alternatives are available. In Washington's case, they'd be foolish to continue to give Portis 25 carries a game when they have a guy on the bench who's proven in this late season run that he deserves at least 10 touches a game himself. I see something between RB10-15 for Portis next season.

well said-i couldn't agree more. betts will eat into his carries way to much for him to even be a top 10 back.

 

[Big Score]

With Betts contract extension and performance while Portis has been out, I expect Portis to get fewer touches per game to try to keep him healthy.I see Portis going from stud to a semi RBBC situation.So no I am not a bit excited about Portis in 2007, I think it takes him out of the top 10 as far as FF points.

This is what I see too. Heck, Betts was already the pass catching back specialist. Only time Portis was involved in the passing game was as a 3rd read dump off / outlet. On specific passing downs where the 1st read was the RB, Portis came out & betts went in. Then you take into consideration that Betts was already coming in on some running downs diluting Portis' carries & Portis was not getting enough opps as is.Now Betts has performed well while Portis has been out & resigned.I see next year as being even worse, as far as Portis opportunities go. Probably a 60 / 40 or even 55 / 45 split in RB touches.

 

[JayMan]

Heck, Betts was already the pass catching back specialist. Only time Portis was involved in the passing game was as a 3rd read dump off / outlet. On specific passing downs where the 1st read was the RB, Portis came out & betts went in. Then you take into consideration that Betts was already coming in on some running downs diluting Portis' carries & Portis was not getting enough opps as is.

I'm not saying that you won't be right... but care to explain to me why - if all you are saying above was already in place - that in the last three years (the only time they played together)... the stats look like this:'04: Portis: 1553yds / 40recs (56 trgts) / 7tds'04: Betts: 479yds / 15recs (24 trgts) / 1td'05: Portis: 1728yds / 30recs (41 trgts) / 11tds'05: Betts: 421yds / 10recs (17 trgts) / 2tds'06: Portis: 693yds / 17recs (26 trgts) / 7tds'06: Betts: 506yds / 26recs (31 trgts) / 1tdI'm just looking for info...

 

[Big Score]

Heck, Betts was already the pass catching back specialist. Only time Portis was involved in the passing game was as a 3rd read dump off / outlet. On specific passing downs where the 1st read was the RB, Portis came out & betts went in. Then you take into consideration that Betts was already coming in on some running downs diluting Portis' carries & Portis was not getting enough opps as is.

I'm not saying that you won't be right... but care to explain to me why - if all you are saying above was already in place - that in the last three years (the only time they played together)... the stats look like this:'04: Portis: 1553yds / 40recs (56 trgts) / 7tds

'04: Betts: 479yds / 15recs (24 trgts) / 1td

'05: Portis: 1728yds / 30recs (41 trgts) / 11tds

'05: Betts: 421yds / 10recs (17 trgts) / 2tds

'06: Portis: 693yds / 17recs (26 trgts) / 7tds

'06: Betts: 506yds / 26recs (31 trgts) / 1td

I'm just looking for info...

'06 is the year you want to zero in on. That is how Saunders is using them. Beginning of the year he remarked on how good Betts was & they needed to get him more involved in the offense. As you can see from the '06 numbers, Saunders has indeed gotten Betts more involved, (Portis did miss the 1st game of the season with the shoulder injury so Betts #'s are slightly inflated due to that).

Saunders isn't going anywhere & he's in charge of the offensive playcalling.

 

[JayMan]

Heck, Betts was already the pass catching back specialist. Only time Portis was involved in the passing game was as a 3rd read dump off / outlet. On specific passing downs where the 1st read was the RB, Portis came out & betts went in. Then you take into consideration that Betts was already coming in on some running downs diluting Portis' carries & Portis was not getting enough opps as is.

I'm not saying that you won't be right... but care to explain to me why - if all you are saying above was already in place - that in the last three years (the only time they played together)... the stats look like this:'04: Portis: 1553yds / 40recs (56 trgts) / 7tds

'04: Betts: 479yds / 15recs (24 trgts) / 1td

'05: Portis: 1728yds / 30recs (41 trgts) / 11tds

'05: Betts: 421yds / 10recs (17 trgts) / 2tds

'06: Portis: 693yds / 17recs (26 trgts) / 7tds

'06: Betts: 506yds / 26recs (31 trgts) / 1td

I'm just looking for info...

'06 is the year you want to zero in on. That is how Saunders is using them. Beginning of the year he remarked on how good Betts was & they needed to get him more involved in the offense. As you can see from the '06 numbers, Saunders has indeed gotten Betts more involved.

Saunders isn't going anywhere & he's the one doing the playcalling.

Thus... with Saunders in... looking at averages and tendencies... we get the following stats for Was RBs:2400 yds / 60 rec / 14 tds

Splitting these according to '06 use would yield the following '07 results:

Portis: 1390yds / 24 recs / 12 tds

Betts: 1010yds / 36 recs / 2 tds

Looking at this year's results as the benchmark... this would yield:

(PPR) Portis: RB6 and Betts: RB23;

(noPPR) Portis: RB7 and Betts: RB28

Would you say these assumptions/expectations are correct (no injuries predicted to either obviously)?...

 

[Big Score]

Heck, Betts was already the pass catching back specialist. Only time Portis was involved in the passing game was as a 3rd read dump off / outlet. On specific passing downs where the 1st read was the RB, Portis came out & betts went in. Then you take into consideration that Betts was already coming in on some running downs diluting Portis' carries & Portis was not getting enough opps as is.

I'm not saying that you won't be right... but care to explain to me why - if all you are saying above was already in place - that in the last three years (the only time they played together)... the stats look like this:'04: Portis: 1553yds / 40recs (56 trgts) / 7tds

'04: Betts: 479yds / 15recs (24 trgts) / 1td

'05: Portis: 1728yds / 30recs (41 trgts) / 11tds

'05: Betts: 421yds / 10recs (17 trgts) / 2tds

'06: Portis: 693yds / 17recs (26 trgts) / 7tds

'06: Betts: 506yds / 26recs (31 trgts) / 1td

I'm just looking for info...

'06 is the year you want to zero in on. That is how Saunders is using them. Beginning of the year he remarked on how good Betts was & they needed to get him more involved in the offense. As you can see from the '06 numbers, Saunders has indeed gotten Betts more involved.

Saunders isn't going anywhere & he's the one doing the playcalling.

Thus... with Saunders in... looking at averages and tendencies... we get the following stats for Was RBs:2400 yds / 60 rec / 14 tds

Splitting these according to '06 use would yield the following '07 results:

Portis: 1390yds / 24 recs / 12 tds

Betts: 1010yds / 36 recs / 2 tds

Looking at this year's results as the benchmark... this would yield:

(PPR) Portis: RB6 and Betts: RB23;

(noPPR) Portis: RB7 and Betts: RB28

Would you say these assumptions/expectations are correct (no injuries predicted to either obviously)?...

No.I think since Betts has proven to Saunders just how effective he can be, Saunders will involve Betts in the offense even more for '07.

Think of last year & how Saunders went with a RBBC in KC, with Priest & LJ when both were healthy.

That's what I see happening next year with Portis & Betts.

 

[JayMan]

Heck, Betts was already the pass catching back specialist. Only time Portis was involved in the passing game was as a 3rd read dump off / outlet. On specific passing downs where the 1st read was the RB, Portis came out & betts went in. Then you take into consideration that Betts was already coming in on some running downs diluting Portis' carries & Portis was not getting enough opps as is.

I'm not saying that you won't be right... but care to explain to me why - if all you are saying above was already in place - that in the last three years (the only time they played together)... the stats look like this:'04: Portis: 1553yds / 40recs (56 trgts) / 7tds

'04: Betts: 479yds / 15recs (24 trgts) / 1td

'05: Portis: 1728yds / 30recs (41 trgts) / 11tds

'05: Betts: 421yds / 10recs (17 trgts) / 2tds

'06: Portis: 693yds / 17recs (26 trgts) / 7tds

'06: Betts: 506yds / 26recs (31 trgts) / 1td

I'm just looking for info...

'06 is the year you want to zero in on. That is how Saunders is using them. Beginning of the year he remarked on how good Betts was & they needed to get him more involved in the offense. As you can see from the '06 numbers, Saunders has indeed gotten Betts more involved.

Saunders isn't going anywhere & he's the one doing the playcalling.

Thus... with Saunders in... looking at averages and tendencies... we get the following stats for Was RBs:2400 yds / 60 rec / 14 tds

Splitting these according to '06 use would yield the following '07 results:

Portis: 1390yds / 24 recs / 12 tds

Betts: 1010yds / 36 recs / 2 tds

Looking at this year's results as the benchmark... this would yield:

(PPR) Portis: RB6 and Betts: RB23;

(noPPR) Portis: RB7 and Betts: RB28

Would you say these assumptions/expectations are correct (no injuries predicted to either obviously)?...

No.I think since Betts has proven to Saunders just how effective he can be, Saunders will involve Betts in the offense even more for '07.

Think of last year & how Saunders went with a RBBC in KC, with Priest & LJ when both were healthy.

That's what I see happening next year with Portis & Betts.

All right then... I guess we can only speculate - and we'll have to wait and see...Thanks for your input on the situation!