Scoresman
Footballguy
As part of doing player projections by team, I end up with a projected ranking of NFL offenses and thought I would share what I ended up with, at least as of mid-July. Team offense rankings are usually done by total yards, so this is ranked the same.
#1 - Baltimore Ravens - Even with a forecast 10% regression reduction from last year, I have the Ravens repeating as the number one offense. While I do expect regression, when you look at Lamar's amazing 41 TD/4 INT season, you can regress a lot and still end up with elite numbers. And they are returning essentially the same offensive players.
#2 - San Francisco 49ers - Last year the 49ers had arguably the league's toughest schedule, were decimated by injuries and still ended up with the 4th ranked offense. This year thay have a projected top 3 easiest schedule. That's pretty insane. Assuming a healthy CMC at the very least, I feel the O line can support one more elite offensive season.
#3 - Detroit Lions - Another regression candidate, but with the Lions its more about the losses on their O-line. I'm less worried about the loss of Ben Johnson. Last year they had a near perfect schedule with 14 dome games. The result was a career year for Goff and the offense as a whole. This year, their schedule is tougher. That's a lot of negative things to say about the offense I'm ranking #3. That's a testament to how many weapons they have.
#4 - Buffalo Bills - I was surprised to see the Bills rank 10th last season. At least yardage-wise, I'm projecting about the same numbers this year as I see no reason not to with Josh Allen still at the helm and a lot of the same pieces. But this is enough to rank 4th this year.
#5 - Philadelphia Eagles - Really lopsided pass/run splits for them last year due to leading in games at a ridiculous rate and Saquon running wild. This year, with a much tougher schedule and after all those miles on Barkley, I and a lot of others see Hurts passing a lot more. And that's not a bad thing. He was crazy efficient last year when he did throw, so that projects to a top 5 offense for me.
#6 - Cincinnati Bengals - Another regression candidate, but mostly on the TD side which isn't measured here. This ranking assumes their dumpster fire of an offensive line can keep people healthy. Projecting their rushing total is pretty easy as they've had pretty much the same number of carries and yards the last 3 seasons. Can't justify a higher ceiling here with this O line.
#7 - Atlanta Falcons - Really high on Bijan this year after his second half performance last year. They are returning most of their O line and other offensive players. Penix is the wild card here.
Tie # 9 - Washington Commanders - I projected the Commanders similar to 2024, but this year, between Vegas's lower expected wins and slightly tougher SoS, I'm going with slightly more passing. The addition of Deebo will help here too.
Tie # 9 - Green Bay Packers - Last year, Jordan Love was hampered by injuries and was not himself, so I weighed his 2023 season more when projecting him. Last year, they only passed at a 47% rate which is not normal for them. I also expect slightly less rushing efficiency in part due to a tougher schedule.
#10 - Dallas Cowboys - I'm nervous ranking them this high. My gut tells me this team could fall apart offensively. But it is an odd number year for Dak if you believe in such things, and their receiving weapons are pretty elite. One interesting stat that I believe speaks volumes about their terrible RBs is that when Dak started last year, Dallas led the league in pass rate at a whopping 66.7%. But at the same time Dak posted career lows in completion rate and on-target rate. This team could be top 5 or completely fall apart.
#11 - Arizona Cardinals - Not much to mention here. Basically projecting a repeat of 2024's stats due to not much changing for the Cardinals. Main difference is a higher pass rate. After their bye last year, they had pretty wild swings in pass/run rate, passing a lot more.
#12 - Miami Dolphins - Increases across the board assuming Tua is healthy. I worry a little about Tyreek being over the hill, and I reduced a bit of efficiency due to that, but dumping off to Achane as much as they probably will is enough for this ranking. Their YPA plummeted last year. I do see them continuing to do this sort of thing vs stretching the field mainly to try and keep Tua healthy.
#13 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year's #3 offense, I am projecting a lot of regression here. Baker Mayfield, IMO is my top QB regression candidate, even with a healthy and upgraded WR room. HE set career highs in just about every metric last year. It's very rare for a QB to follow up such a career year with a similar statistical performance. He also will be without his all pro center for the start of the year. The loss of Liam Coen hurts a bit too.
#14 - Kansas City Chiefs - This seems low for the almighty Chiefs, but it's actually 3 spots higher than 2024's finish. Defenses have not been allowing the Chiefs to beat them deep and that has had effects on Mahomes YPA and aDOT. There has been a lot of coachspeak out of KC about returning to a more deep passing offense, and I'm projecting a slight uptick in YPA and yards overall. The loss of Rashee Rice for X number of games will hurt.
#15 - Los Angeles Rams - Yeah I'm concerned a bit about Stafford's sore back entering camp. Kyren is an ok RB propped up by volume. I'm hoping a healthy year on the O line can help his efficiency numbers. Adams and Nacua is an elite duo at WR.
#16 - Jacksonville Jaguars - This is a pretty big increase from last year's 25th ranking, and it's really all about the hire of Liam Coen, and I dont know how I feel about that. IF he can work his QB magic on Lawrence, then sure. But the O line is still shaky, and the RB room has talent but questions as well.
The rest in the second post....
#1 - Baltimore Ravens - Even with a forecast 10% regression reduction from last year, I have the Ravens repeating as the number one offense. While I do expect regression, when you look at Lamar's amazing 41 TD/4 INT season, you can regress a lot and still end up with elite numbers. And they are returning essentially the same offensive players.
#2 - San Francisco 49ers - Last year the 49ers had arguably the league's toughest schedule, were decimated by injuries and still ended up with the 4th ranked offense. This year thay have a projected top 3 easiest schedule. That's pretty insane. Assuming a healthy CMC at the very least, I feel the O line can support one more elite offensive season.
#3 - Detroit Lions - Another regression candidate, but with the Lions its more about the losses on their O-line. I'm less worried about the loss of Ben Johnson. Last year they had a near perfect schedule with 14 dome games. The result was a career year for Goff and the offense as a whole. This year, their schedule is tougher. That's a lot of negative things to say about the offense I'm ranking #3. That's a testament to how many weapons they have.
#4 - Buffalo Bills - I was surprised to see the Bills rank 10th last season. At least yardage-wise, I'm projecting about the same numbers this year as I see no reason not to with Josh Allen still at the helm and a lot of the same pieces. But this is enough to rank 4th this year.
#5 - Philadelphia Eagles - Really lopsided pass/run splits for them last year due to leading in games at a ridiculous rate and Saquon running wild. This year, with a much tougher schedule and after all those miles on Barkley, I and a lot of others see Hurts passing a lot more. And that's not a bad thing. He was crazy efficient last year when he did throw, so that projects to a top 5 offense for me.
#6 - Cincinnati Bengals - Another regression candidate, but mostly on the TD side which isn't measured here. This ranking assumes their dumpster fire of an offensive line can keep people healthy. Projecting their rushing total is pretty easy as they've had pretty much the same number of carries and yards the last 3 seasons. Can't justify a higher ceiling here with this O line.
#7 - Atlanta Falcons - Really high on Bijan this year after his second half performance last year. They are returning most of their O line and other offensive players. Penix is the wild card here.
Tie # 9 - Washington Commanders - I projected the Commanders similar to 2024, but this year, between Vegas's lower expected wins and slightly tougher SoS, I'm going with slightly more passing. The addition of Deebo will help here too.
Tie # 9 - Green Bay Packers - Last year, Jordan Love was hampered by injuries and was not himself, so I weighed his 2023 season more when projecting him. Last year, they only passed at a 47% rate which is not normal for them. I also expect slightly less rushing efficiency in part due to a tougher schedule.
#10 - Dallas Cowboys - I'm nervous ranking them this high. My gut tells me this team could fall apart offensively. But it is an odd number year for Dak if you believe in such things, and their receiving weapons are pretty elite. One interesting stat that I believe speaks volumes about their terrible RBs is that when Dak started last year, Dallas led the league in pass rate at a whopping 66.7%. But at the same time Dak posted career lows in completion rate and on-target rate. This team could be top 5 or completely fall apart.
#11 - Arizona Cardinals - Not much to mention here. Basically projecting a repeat of 2024's stats due to not much changing for the Cardinals. Main difference is a higher pass rate. After their bye last year, they had pretty wild swings in pass/run rate, passing a lot more.
#12 - Miami Dolphins - Increases across the board assuming Tua is healthy. I worry a little about Tyreek being over the hill, and I reduced a bit of efficiency due to that, but dumping off to Achane as much as they probably will is enough for this ranking. Their YPA plummeted last year. I do see them continuing to do this sort of thing vs stretching the field mainly to try and keep Tua healthy.
#13 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year's #3 offense, I am projecting a lot of regression here. Baker Mayfield, IMO is my top QB regression candidate, even with a healthy and upgraded WR room. HE set career highs in just about every metric last year. It's very rare for a QB to follow up such a career year with a similar statistical performance. He also will be without his all pro center for the start of the year. The loss of Liam Coen hurts a bit too.
#14 - Kansas City Chiefs - This seems low for the almighty Chiefs, but it's actually 3 spots higher than 2024's finish. Defenses have not been allowing the Chiefs to beat them deep and that has had effects on Mahomes YPA and aDOT. There has been a lot of coachspeak out of KC about returning to a more deep passing offense, and I'm projecting a slight uptick in YPA and yards overall. The loss of Rashee Rice for X number of games will hurt.
#15 - Los Angeles Rams - Yeah I'm concerned a bit about Stafford's sore back entering camp. Kyren is an ok RB propped up by volume. I'm hoping a healthy year on the O line can help his efficiency numbers. Adams and Nacua is an elite duo at WR.
#16 - Jacksonville Jaguars - This is a pretty big increase from last year's 25th ranking, and it's really all about the hire of Liam Coen, and I dont know how I feel about that. IF he can work his QB magic on Lawrence, then sure. But the O line is still shaky, and the RB room has talent but questions as well.
The rest in the second post....
