Are we getting to the point to start to trade Peyton Manning? (1 Viewer)

[renesauz]

I was never arguing with the premise that value goes down, but with the idea that you HAVE TO sell before value goes down!

 

[gianmarco]

I was never arguing with the premise that value goes down, but with the idea that you HAVE TO sell before value goes down!

I agree with you. And I'm not sure there is a "right" answer. For some guys, I'd rather ride them to the end. Peyton would probably fit that category. Randy Moss is another for me as was TO. For others, better to get out before the decline comes. Some FFers prefer to gain as much value on their players as they can. I guess the purpose of this when I posted last year was 2-fold. One is discussing the merits of doing the above. Is it truly better to get top dollar and miss out on some top production or is it better to get top dollar and hope your replacement is truly comparable. Again, not sure there is an answer there. The 2nd point was, if you are one that likes to get top dollar, was last year the time to do it for Peyton? Is this year? My gut says the decline has already started. If you haven't already done so and like to get top dollar for your players, then right now is probably the best time to do so. I only see it getting worse as the year progresses. More importantly is if Peyton slips up even a little bit for whatever reason this year, then I think his value could actually plummet. Most would see it as "the beginning of the end" for Peyton. In fact, I would argue, unless he puts up top 2-3 #'s yet again, his value will most definitely take a significant hit heading into 2010. So, the question is do you like to trade players before their value falls? If so, does Peyton fit that category or is he an exception? And if he is someone to trade before his value falls, is now the time to do it or do u think there's more time?

 

[Enderdog]

I traded Peyton Manning away last week in a Zealots league for Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan, with the idea that Warner gives me similar production the next year or two, then Ryan takes over for the next decade. I originally turned down the offer, but then I looked at the QBs drafted in the first three rounds over the past nine years:

2008 - Matt Ryan (3), Joe Flacco (18), Brian Brohm (56), Chad Henne (57), Kevin O'Connell (94)

2007 - JaMarcus Russell (1), Brady Quinn (22), Kevin Kolb (36), John Beck (40), Drew Stanton (43), Trent Edwards (92)

2006 - Vince Young (3), Matt Leinart (10), Jay Cutler (11), Kellen Clemens (49), Tarvaris Jackson (64), Charlie Whitehurst (81), Brodie Croyle (85)

2005 - Alex Smith (1), Aaron Rodgers (24), Jason Campbell (25), Charlie Frye (67), Andrew Walter (69), David Greene (85)

2004 - Eli Manning (1), Philip Rivers (4), Ben Roethlisberger (11), J.P. Losman (22), Matt Schaub (90)

2003 - Carson Palmer (1), Byron Leftwich (7), Kyle Boller (19), Rex Grossman (22), Dave Ragone (88), Chris Simms (97)

2002 - David Carr (1), Joey Harrington (3), Patrick Ramsey (32), Josh McCown (81)

2001 - Michael Vick (1), Drew Brees (32), Quincy Carter (53), Marques Tuiasosopo (59)

2000 - Chad Pennington (18), Giovanni Carmazzi (65), Chris Redman (75)

There's 46 QBs on that list, and at best a dozen turned into what I consider useful fantasy QBs, or about a 26% success rate. I coupled that with my own pathetic success rate in rookie drafts, and tried to imagine how many draft picks I'd eventually waste on drafting a QB with stud potential. I went back and took a second look at Ryan and made the deal. Did I sell Manning too soon, or for too little? Ask me again in about four years and I'll let you know.

 

[AB in DC]

Manning lost his coach and his long-time OC this year, too.

SELL SELL SELL!!

 

[Birdie048]

I was not under the impression he would lose value, but I did sell Peyton last week. I received Carson Palmer and a 1st round rookie pick next year (I expect it to be 4-6 range).

Too many changes for me to be comfortable!!

 

[Pickle Rody]

The coaching changes this year are most likely the cause of any trade value falling with Manning. His production will remain elite for quite a few more years, sans injury.As a Manning Owner who traded to get him back in 2004, I'm not putting him on the block. I'm riding him out until he drops dead on the football field. The only way he leaves my team is if I'm blown away with an offer I can't refuse.......couldn't say what that is, but I'll know it when I see it. I've had a few offers over the past few years but mostly it was just a guppy trying out the waters to see if I'd let him go cheap. Not a chance, not when his fantasy production is top rate. Like others have said, he consistently produces and there is little worry each week as to who to start. Yeah, you need to have a capable #2 sitting there for the playoffs, but you need to get there to have a chance and Manning gives you that shot each and every year.

So, the question is do you like to trade players before their value falls? If so, does Peyton fit that category or is he an exception? And if he is someone to trade before his value falls, is now the time to do it or do u think there's more time?

Yes I try to trade players before their trade value and fantasy value falls. NO, Manning does not fit into that category......he is most definitely an exception. If you feel he is someone to trade before his value falls any more, then yes, now is the time to do it...........I wouldn't.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I was not under the impression he would lose value, but I did sell Peyton last week. I received Carson Palmer and a 1st round rookie pick next year (I expect it to be 4-6 range). Too many changes for me to be comfortable!!

I like the pick, but how can you feel more "comfortable"with Carson Palmer as your starting QB instead of Peyton Manning ?Palmer is a huge question mark.

 

[massraider]

I was not under the impression he would lose value, but I did sell Peyton last week. I received Carson Palmer and a 1st round rookie pick next year (I expect it to be 4-6 range). Too many changes for me to be comfortable!!

Yeah, I prefer the stability Carson has in Cincy.

 

[Terps2002]

Peyton Manning is a great quarterback because of his preparation and his football mind. He doesn't have one singe physical quality that he will lose in the next ten years barring injury that would cause him to drop off. His arm is average at best and he throws some of the ugliest prettiest passes in the game.

The Colts are his team, he has more freedom to audible and suggest plays then any qb playing today, I doubt very seriously him losing his offensive coordinator is going to downgrade his game in anyway. I would argue he is more intelligent and could call a better game for the Colts right now then any OC they would have.

R Wayne, D Clark, A Gonzales, A Collie, P Garcon, J Addai and Donald Brown and enough weapons and young enough to ensure he will be a top 5 qb for the next five years.

I can see selling guys at other positions who depend on their athletiscim to perfom at a high level. Quarterback isn't one of those positions.

Alot of people say that if you get the best player in the trade you got the better of deal. In my eyes there are only 2-3 guys who are better then Manning that you could get in return in the next five years.

 

[Spark026]

Peyton is already coming at a considerable discount this season. He's lasting past the 40th pick in a lot of drafts.

I think he's a strong buy and hold play for those drafting now, and a good trade target this off-season if you can get him on the cheap.

His value could easily rise during the season, and then he'll have another decline next off-season no matter how well he performs this coming year.

If you still have him. I say hold him till he retires for the 3rd time.

 

[trader jake]

This season is the first that real concerns exist for Peyton Manning in terms of fantasy production. As usual, I suspect he'll do very well but for the first time I can understand owners selling him if their team isn't a contender.

In one league I traded him straight up for CAR WR Steve Smith. Lack of wide receiver depth and Rodgers, Cassell, and Quinn on the bench made it a bit easier to pull the trigger...but it still wasn't easy. Peyton Manning is just money in the bank and is so consistent.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm gonna trade him for a QB who, you know... plays in the fantasy playoffs.

 

[Hendo]

not to hijak this thread but whats the consensus with Brees who is a little younger then Manning and has been setting records and been a stud for a while now.... i personaly own him in my dynasty league and plan on riding his arm till it falls off or he retires imo. i would not trade away either of Manning/Brees or Brady for that matter i mean look at how long and good FFavre has been imo.

 

[switz]

Peyton has just turned 32 this year. Yes, this is still young by QB standards and I'm quite sure he's definitely got a few years left. This isn't a matter of trying to guess whether it's going to be 4, 5, or 6 more years but more about trade value.

In just 2 short years, Manning will be 34 to start the year (and turning 35 that following March). At that point, Manning may start to lose considerable value as most will be well aware of his age at that point and not many are going to pay a premium price for a 35 year old QB no matter how good he is. Think of Favre who was only 38 this past year. His value took a serious hit over his last 3 yrs. Peyton will be in that same spot in just 2 short years.

First, I don't think your math is adding up.Second, you don't trade a guy like Manning, you ride him until he's done. Period.

 

[shader]

To the original poster:

You are thinking correctly. This is exactly when you trade a guy. You just have to make sure you get something good in return. Can you get Rivers and a young RB or WR that has a bright future? Rivers and a draft pick?

Or maybe you trade for a guy like Matt Ryan.

2 years ago, I posted that LT was done. Finished. Sell out now while you can. I was of course laughed off the board.

Now LT is still producing...but in dynasty formats, he is basically worthless.

2 years ago, you could have gotten a kings ransom for LT. Now? Nothing.

Right now you can get a TON for Manning. In 2 years when he's 34-35? His value will be way down REGARDLESS of how well he does.

Age hits everyone. Now is the time to sell out.

 

[Riffraff]

Gotta love the bumping of old threads.

I'd still take these last 2 years of Manning's career (since the thread was started) over plenty of the guys we could have gotten by selling high.

 

[gianmarco]

So, I'm sure many of you think this is quite premature to consider this. Or is it?

Peyton has just turned 32 this year. Yes, this is still young by QB standards and I'm quite sure he's definitely got a few years left. This isn't a matter of trying to guess whether it's going to be 4, 5, or 6 more years but more about trade value.

In just 2 short years, Manning will be 34 to start the year (and turning 35 that following March). At that point, Manning may start to lose considerable value as most will be well aware of his age at that point and not many are going to pay a premium price for a 35 year old QB no matter how good he is. Think of Favre who was only 38 this past year. His value took a serious hit over his last 3 yrs. Peyton will be in that same spot in just 2 short years.

So, the point of this discussion is when is the best time to trade him? I think this year he still has maximal trade value as he's still going relatively high in startup drafts. But I would argue in 2 yrs, when he's 34, is when that value will start to go down. It's similar to the LT discussion that gained momentum last year. At age 28, he was still the #1 RB but there were talks that it was the last chance to trade him to get top value. Turns out that it was true as this year he seems to be getting less in return. I truly think Manning will see that in just 2 short years, which mean this year and probably next will be the last chance to get top dollar in return. And while Manning is still at the top, there are some guys that have joined him near the top that should produce almost at the same level. A trade for one of these guys using Manning could net you a little something in return.

Just some food for thought as it may be too late in 2 short years.

It's now been 2 years. There are a couple threads (one example here) suggesting that guys like Rivers and Rodgers are now worth more than Manning and that he simply doesn't carry the same trade value as before. Of course, Manning is still going to command a nice price tag in a trade, but I would argue that he's going to be a very difficult player to trade because I don't think many will want to pay that price tag now for a 34 year old QB.

Last year may have truly been the best time to trade him and get maximum value. At the same time, if you own a guy like Rivers, moving him for Manning + significant piece, if possible, may not be a bad idea as Manning still has at least 3-4 great years left.

 

[videoguy505]

I'm gonna trade him for a QB who, you know... plays in the fantasy playoffs.

A slightly downhill Peyton may be more valuable if, as a result, the Colts don't have their berth sewn up in week 16.

 

[cstu]

Rivers and Romo are younger and should put up similar numbers as Peyton this year so I think if you could get one of them straight up now you should do it since I doubt you're able to next year.

 

[DropKick]

So, I'm sure many of you think this is quite premature to consider this. Or is it?

Peyton has just turned 32 this year. Yes, this is still young by QB standards and I'm quite sure he's definitely got a few years left. This isn't a matter of trying to guess whether it's going to be 4, 5, or 6 more years but more about trade value.

In just 2 short years, Manning will be 34 to start the year (and turning 35 that following March). At that point, Manning may start to lose considerable value as most will be well aware of his age at that point and not many are going to pay a premium price for a 35 year old QB no matter how good he is. Think of Favre who was only 38 this past year. His value took a serious hit over his last 3 yrs. Peyton will be in that same spot in just 2 short years.

So, the point of this discussion is when is the best time to trade him? I think this year he still has maximal trade value as he's still going relatively high in startup drafts. But I would argue in 2 yrs, when he's 34, is when that value will start to go down. It's similar to the LT discussion that gained momentum last year. At age 28, he was still the #1 RB but there were talks that it was the last chance to trade him to get top value. Turns out that it was true as this year he seems to be getting less in return. I truly think Manning will see that in just 2 short years, which mean this year and probably next will be the last chance to get top dollar in return. And while Manning is still at the top, there are some guys that have joined him near the top that should produce almost at the same level. A trade for one of these guys using Manning could net you a little something in return.

Just some food for thought as it may be too late in 2 short years.

It's now been 2 years. There are a couple threads (one example here) suggesting that guys like Rivers and Rodgers are now worth more than Manning and that he simply doesn't carry the same trade value as before. Of course, Manning is still going to command a nice price tag in a trade, but I would argue that he's going to be a very difficult player to trade because I don't think many will want to pay that price tag now for a 34 year old QB.

Last year may have truly been the best time to trade him and get maximum value. At the same time, if you own a guy like Rivers, moving him for Manning + significant piece, if possible, may not be a bad idea as Manning still has at least 3-4 great years left.

Of course his value is less after two years but you've had his services for two seasons. I'd have no interest in trading him unless he was a chip in a MAJOR rebuilding project. Too steady and too explosive to let go when you're very competitive.I haven't been impressed with reports for what people have moved him for... Palmer and a rookie pick? Not enough for me. Now, if I had "developed" a suitable replacement (ala Rodgers or Brees) then I'd see what the market had to offer. But it would take a legit deal. I wouldn't be negatively influenced by his future value. Warner and Favre have been very successful as older QBs and nothing Manning has done would make someone expect less.

 

[Ocram]

Sad to see him potentially go out so early.