Are We on the Brink of Food Shortages in America? (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-hearing-inflation-farmers-20220614-d664grvihnfilakimt4wvcy6e4-story.html

Kotzmoyer told lawmakers diesel is a “huge, huge expense” for farmers. One Cumberland County farmer, he said, works about 3,500 acres with several diesel-consuming tractors and burns though about 2,000 gallons of diesel per month.

Farm operations do not have to pay sales taxes on diesel fuel purchases, giving them a minor break, he said.

But they can also decide to stop farming certain crops that are not worth the expense — raising the threat of shortages.

Asked if food shortages were a possibility, Kotzmoyer said, “If the farmers cannot get crops out of the ground, then there is not food on the shelves.”

Kotzmoyer said he has already heard of farmers selling seed corn or beans back to dealers so they can plant hay, which has “more return on investment.”

 

[[icon]]

I generally keep 2-3 months of food on hand, but we're upping to ~4 months... including disproportionately increasing beef/poultry stock in the freezers. 

 

[Max Power]

The fertilizer shortage is going to hurt the fall harvest. Prices will go up and yields reduced.

I keep about a 30 day supply on hand. I'm worried, but not super concerned. That will increase when the cities start rioting. 

 

[Gopher State]

Cutting water off to farmers in California and AZ will have an effect as well.

 

[Courtjester]

I generally keep 2-3 months of food on hand, but we're upping to ~4 months... including disproportionately increasing beef/poultry stock in the freezers. 

This is where we are at. My concern (because I don't have a generator) is loading my freezers up and then boom, power goes out and we lose everything. 

My wife thinks it is a little overkill, but I told her we may supplement things with getting a couple of those 14 days of meals that come in a portable tub. I would hope things would never ever come to having to eat that food, but I spend more on beer during the week than having a couple of those around.   

 

[moleculo]

The fertilizer shortage is going to hurt the fall harvest. Prices will go up and yields reduced.

I keep about a 30 day supply on hand. I'm worried, but not super concerned. That will increase when the cities start rioting. 

This means barely shortages, which means beer shortages.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Meh. Prices will go up, and some things may be harder to find, but we’ve perfected the art of getting calories to our populace.

 

[Sand]

Meh. Prices will go up, and some things may be harder to find, but we’ve perfected the art of getting calories to our populace.

Use corn for food instead of ethanol.  Easy dial to turn.

I try to keep a decent amount of staples on hand.  Those 20lb bags of rice at Costco are awesome.

 

[LawFitz]

Meh. Prices will go up, and some things may be harder to find, but we’ve perfected the art of getting calories to our populace.

Says the guy with the doctor (surgeon?) income. Please never use the term 'meh' again when it come to economics, doc.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Says the guy with the doctor (surgeon?) income. Please never use the term 'meh' again when it come to economics, doc.

My income is irrelevant. Obesity disproportionately impacts the poor, so calories are cheap.

 

[LawFitz]

My income is irrelevant. Obesity disproportionately impacts the poor, so calories are cheap.

Calories were cheap, if this is in any way true. I hope it isn't. Sincerely.

 

[FairWarning]

This means barely shortages, which means beer shortages.

There have been talk of potato shortages along with grains.   Potato chips have had some big increases already, beer and bread will soon follow.

 

[quick-hands]

Use corn for food instead of ethanol.  Easy dial to turn.

I try to keep a decent amount of staples on hand.  Those 20lb bags of rice at Costco are awesome.

Got 3

 

[quick-hands]

My income is irrelevant. Obesity disproportionately impacts the poor, so calories are cheap.

I don't think you have ever been to a food pantry.   What happens when they can't get food?

 

[FairWarning]

I don't think you have ever been to a food pantry.   What happens when they can't get food?

We haven’t been able to donate to the local pantry for a couple of years now:  it’s a double-edge sword as I’ve been selling everything.  It’s also bad as I’ve been shorted 50% for a month now.  

 

[Max Power]

I don't think you have ever been to a food pantry.   What happens when they can't get food?

Not a food pantry, but there is a dollar general in the middle of nowhere on my way home from work. Its the only thing for 15 miles in all directions. I'll stop there for a quick snack or if I need a basic item on my way home.  

It's gone downhill pretty bad over the last two months.  There is hardly anything in stock and when something decent hits the shelves its gone within a couple days.  Its all cheap processed junk, but its what most people in that commuting area live on. 

I have no doubt that if the media highlighted the coming food shortages harder, that place would be cleaned out immediately and not restocked very often.

 

[FairWarning]

Not a food pantry, but there is a dollar general in the middle of nowhere on my way home from work. Its the only thing for 15 miles in all directions. I'll stop there for a quick snack or if I need a basic item on my way home.  

It's gone downhill pretty bad over the last two months.  There is hardly anything in stock and when something decent hits the shelves its gone within a couple days.  Its all cheap processed junk, but its what most people in that commuting area live on. 

I have no doubt that if the media highlighted the coming food shortages harder, that place would be cleaned out immediately and not restocked very often.

Those stores are gold mines IF they can get the labor.   They are always understaffed, so there are holes everywhere.   Their sales are increasing with the prices being what they are.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I don't think you have ever been to a food pantry.   What happens when they can't get food?

I’ve volunteered at one, but admittedly that was several year ago. Still, I think this is mostly fear-mongering, and don’t expect we’re really going to run out of food.

I guess we’ll see how it pans out over the next few years.

 

[Max Power]

Those stores are gold mines IF they can get the labor.   They are always understaffed, so there are holes everywhere.   Their sales are increasing with the prices being what they are.

I've noticed that as well.  The cashier is stocking shelves between customers and there are unopened boxes lining the aisles.  They seem to operate (poorly) with 2 people, maybe 3 on a good day. 

 

[quick-hands]

I’ve volunteered at one, but admittedly that was several year ago. Still, I think this is mostly fear-mongering, and don’t expect we’re really going to run out of food.

I guess we’ll see how it pans out over the next few years.

Months

 

[FairWarning]

Months

This.  Shortages from COVID really hit the food banks.

 

[Sparky Big Time]

Yes.  Through a multitude of factors we should expect a range of issues, the bottom is still out there somewhere. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Months

Ok, so what outcome due you expect from these looming shortages? Widespread starvation and/or malnutrition? 

 

[quick-hands]

Ok, so what outcome due you expect from these looming shortages? Widespread starvation and/or malnutrition? 

In Africa  and in the 3rd world yes.    In America malnutrition and massive food insecurity.

 

[Terminalxylem]

In Africa  and in the 3rd world yes.    In America malnutrition and massive food insecurity.

Since the OP asked about “here”, let’s stick to the US. How much do you expect malnutrition and food insecurity to increase in the next year? Looks like a little over 10% of US households were food insecure in 2020

 

[LawFitz]

Ok, so what outcome due you expect from these looming shortages? Widespread starvation and/or malnutrition? 

Not to minimize them, but malnutrition and food insecurity are just the first-order concern. The bigger issue would be the second-order effect of widespread civil unrest should shelves suddenly empty or become prohibitively expensive. Summer of 2020 was nothing compared to what would happen if the masses suddenly and significantly feel unable to feed their families. I'm not predicting these food shortages - others are. I'm simply listening, considering and setting my own probabilistic expectations. 

 

[quick-hands]

Since the OP asked about “here”, let’s stick to the US. How much do you expect malnutrition and food insecurity to increase in the next year? Looks like a little over 10% of US households were food insecure in 2020

20 to 30.   But prices are gonna be sky high as well.     I just heard a report that food delivery truck drivers are insecure about driving these vehicle's.    

What's interesting  to me is u don't see any problems?

 

[Terminalxylem]

20 to 30.   But prices are gonna be sky high as well.     I just heard a report that food delivery truck drivers are insecure about driving these vehicle's.    

What's interesting  to me is u don't see any problems?

Yikes. I’ll eat my hat if 30 to 40% of the country is food insecure within 12 months.

Sure there are problems. But I have faith we’ll solve them, before people are starving in a country that’s as pleasantly plump as ours.

 

[quick-hands]

Yikes. I’ll eat my hat if 30 to 40% of the country is food insecure within 12 months.

Sure there are problems. But I have faith we’ll solve them, before people are starving in a country that’s as pleasantly plump as ours.

Just so we are on same page.   If fuel prices keep going up it won't be worth bringing in harvests.   Fertilizer is a oil product.   Ukraine  can't export grain.   

I literally have 5 months of spam in my garage.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Just so we are on same page.   If fuel prices keep going up it won't be worth bringing in harvests.   Fertilizer is a oil product.   Ukraine  can't export grain.   

I literally have 5 months of spam in my garage.

Within a year, I’ll be shocked if US citizens are starving in appreciably greater numbers than currently, or 30%+ are food insecure.

Consuming that much SPAM poses more of an existential threat to humanity than access to Ukrainian grain.

 

[FairWarning]

Ok, so what outcome due you expect from these looming shortages? Widespread starvation and/or malnutrition? 

It’s been an issue in inner cities for a while now.  Many schools offer free lunches in the summer to students who have nothing at home.  Could I see it 20%, thanks to rising costs? It wouldn’t surprise me.