Arian Foster (1 Viewer)

[HurryUpSundays]

drinking with about half of my league this afternoon and like clockwork, fantasy football the topic of number 1 pick came up for 2011.

yes, it is early. but all things considered, at this point, i am strongly considering taking arian foster with the first pick- redraft. i drafted him last year in the 8th round and clearly having lead me to another championship has much to do with my adoration for the fella. but it's a ppr and in that balanced of an offense, i don't see how he doesn't repeat the consistency. maybe not to the tune of the league rushing title and fantasy running back mvp, but still consistent enough numbers (potential to be a top 3 pick).

my buddies couldn't believe i'd take him over AD or CJ, and i played it off as to them being right (in the event i want to trade down a spot or two and still grab him). although they could be playing me as well, trying to scare me to pass on him.

i realize he recently had a knee scoped and ben tate is now healthy, but would those two facts be enough to deter you from taking him that early?

thanks for any input.

 

[Cassius]

paaarty.

 

[Dragon1952]

I took Foster at 1.3 in a start-up dynasty recently, ahead of Chris Johnson and Ray Rice but after Peterson. In the other start-up dynasty I've participated in he went 1.2 behind Aaron Rodgers in a league that can start 2 QB, so there are definitely others out there that value him as you do.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

OH No..... Never pass up on the better proven talent....

 

[Prinefan]

People will laugh at you for taking him first but I'd see nothing wrong with it. Peterson and Johnson both have questionable situations which may impact their value. Make sure you target Tate though (probably 5th or 6th round to be sure you get him. Then also nail Ward near the end of the draft.

 

[Go deep]

I could see Foster going 1st overall in a redraft. Situation goes alot further than it does in dynasty, and as long as Kubiak is there, the situation doesn't get any better.

I probably wouldn't take him in the top 6-7 picks, but I wouldnt fault someone else for doing so. Talent still plays a roll, and Foster is coming off an almost 400 touch season...plus with Tate being back I would prefer guys like Charles, AD, CJ, Calvin, plus a few others.

I wouldn't touch Foster at his current price in dynasty, but he is definitely one of the guys in the large group of players I wouldnt be suprised went 1st in a redraft.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Foster doesn't have the break away speed needed to be a elite back. Houston has done a great job of turning Avg RB into Fantasy Gold (D.Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton). I think his performance last year was him playing for a big-time contact, and did an outstanding job... I also think he benefited from extra attention on A. Johnson (who you have by the way). Tate was a high pick and want to get him on the field.. I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

 

[massraider]

Foster doesn't have the break away speed needed to be a elite back. Houston has done a great job of turning Avg RB into Fantasy Gold (D.Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton). I think his performance last year was him playing for a big-time contact, and did an outstanding job... I also think he benefited from extra attention on A. Johnson (who you have by the way). Tate was a high pick and want to get him on the field.. I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

It's weird that Foster doesn't have the talent to be elite, and was the best back in the league. My league doesn't give points for talent, we get points for yards and TDs. Tate was a 2nd rounder, not a top 10 pick. No team is going to bench the top performer in the league, so they can play a 2nd rounder coming off injury. I am willing to bet if the Texans knew what they had in Foster, Tate wouldn't have been drafted.

 

[Insein]

I took him 4th round last year and I'm definitely keeping him this year. However, if it was straight redraft, I wouldn't be able to draft him 1.1. I'd consider him if he were there in the late first early 2nd but he does have the classic makings of a let down year. Hopefully not but Tate coming back and a lot of reps this past year doesn't bode well. Plus with the lockout, how in shape will he be by season start?

 

[Hoosier16]

Plus with the lockout, how in shape will he be by season start?

As much as any other player who is locked out?

 

[blackbird001]

Foster is coming off a near 400 touch season and he completely obliterated the position stats-wise last year.

RBs typically experience a letdown after that much work and all skill players typically fall off (roughly 40%?) after record seasons.

That's two reasons to not dive in at 1.1. I can see middle of the 1st round all day in all formats, but he's risky as an automatic elite player.

Guarantee that's why they haven't reached an extension with him. They want to reward him for last year, but want to see more of it before they lock up elite numbers to him. Agent/Player are probably only seeing elite dollars at this point.

 

[Dragon1952]

In PPR, Foster was at least 5 ppg better than any other RB. He was 6 ppg better than Peterson and 7 ppg better than Rice and Johnson. He even out-scored Aaron Rodgers by 40 pts on the year. Even if he slips and the others perform better than last year it still should place him pretty equal to any other RB in the top tier. Seriously, 120+ pts over Peterson, Rice, Johnson and MJD on the year in 2010? That's a blowout. He's also on a team that will not be changing much offensively, personnel-wise. And he is only 24 yrs old to boot with just 1 yr wear and tear.

 

[mr roboto]

Foster doesn't have the break away speed needed to be a elite back. Houston has done a great job of turning Avg RB into Fantasy Gold (D.Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton). I think his performance last year was him playing for a big-time contact, and did an outstanding job... I also think he benefited from extra attention on A. Johnson (who you have by the way). Tate was a high pick and want to get him on the field.. I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

Do people read before they post?He was THE elite back last year. So you are already wrong.

 

[(HULK)]

I would take him first overall in a redraft, ppr or not.

Anyone saying they'd take him "late first or early second" is probably the same kinda person who thinks Natalie Portman is only a 6 because she has pointy knees.

I get the arguments for Peterson or CJ, and thats fine, but he is a lock top 3 pick in the vast majority of formats.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Foster doesn't have the break away speed needed to be a elite back. Houston has done a great job of turning Avg RB into Fantasy Gold (D.Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton). I think his performance last year was him playing for a big-time contact, and did an outstanding job... I also think he benefited from extra attention on A. Johnson (who you have by the way). Tate was a high pick and want to get him on the field.. I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

Do people read before they post?He was THE elite back last year. So you are already wrong.

Hmmm.. So is Dwayne Bowe or Brandon Lloyd an elite WR? Is Peyton Hillis an elite RB? They finish in the Top 5 in their positions. Come on fellas everyone know Foster had an amazing year, but do you really feel he can carry that type of load again? NO NO NO!!! I don't see it happening, so if you'll willing to draft him with the 1.01 so be it.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Depending on the scoring and league size, Vick is a viable option. Yes I'm totally serious.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Depending on the scoring and league size, Vick is a viable option. Yes I'm totally serious.

We're talking about "Elite" not "viable"... Big difference

 

[Sabertooth]

Foster could very well fall back to Earth this season too as we have seen so many times.

 

[Heep]

Everyone who takes Arian Foster this year is a year behind, meaning he will be good but he won't repeat his previous years monster numbers. If you want the "Arian Foster" of next year, I'm thinking Beanie Wells is the guy to have. Someone you will be able to draft later in redrafts who has a ton of upside and the situation should be better. I'm looking for the guys with Top 10 talent being taken in the middle rounds, not whether guys should be taken top 3 who have a chance of being a one year wonder.

 

[Buckna]

Wouldn't fault anyone for taking him #1 overall in a redraft.

 

[Londo]

You can count the guys worthy of the 1.01 on 1 hand. Foster is one of them.

 

[Shutout]

I outright giggle like a school girl when I read threads like this and pray that people in my leagues are reading too and buying into the naysayers.

Its funny. The same guys that are blindly saying he isn't worth it or can't repeat it are probably the same guys that were sitting here last year saying he couldn't be relevant and some of them ARE the same guys that say he can't do it again, but for some reason have no problem with assuming that ADP can do it every year forever.

Bottom line: This is about name recognition value and the unwillingness to remove biases by some people. Here's the truth, without biases.

In a dynasty, I probably wouldn't take him #1 only because I KNOW I can create value by trading down.

But in a redraft, I have absoultely NO PROBLEM taking him #1. Why not?

-Is it because of the people above who say "go with the proven talent"? What's more proven than FOSTER WAS THE #1 RB in fantasy last year. Are you the same people that said a few years ago "Rodgers had a nice year...but lets make him do it one more year...meanwhile, I'm going with the more "proven" Brett Favre".

-Is it because of opportunity? In a redraft, opportunity is EVERYTHING and I can't sit here today and think of a better RB opportunity that ADP, MJD, RICE, or CJ may have over Foster.

-Is it because Tate is back? Ok, Is he back? Have we heard he is healthy? IF he is healthy, has he ever PROVEN that he can do anything at this level(wasn't proof a big issue with some people?)? When is the last time you saw a coach whose job is on the line this year decide that now is the time to monkey with things and start pranking around with the #1 RB in football last year by REDUCING his time? I'm going to guess that has never happened unless it was when the player was aging.

-Is it because of the "nearly 400 touches" this past year? Ok, 1)we're not talking about nearly 400 carries. Foster had almost 70 catches last year and 326 carries. that is not an uncommon amount by a RB. Its not like they rode him into the ground last year and wore him out. 2) Why on Earth is it that this number means EVERYTHING to Foster right now, but meant absolutely NOTHING to ADP in 2008 when he had just as many total touches (and more carries)? Answer: Its name and reputation.

People can spin their take on this thing all they want to justify it but when you look at what has been proven and if you actually watched the Texans last year, you know Foster is a very capable back and you know he was a huge part of the offense and put up some great numbers. That comment about his "break away speed" is laughable. I always think of the people that criticized Emmitt smith's speed when I hear that. In the vast majority of times, its space, not pure speed that is the difference maker for a RB and watching Foster last year, I haven't seen a player run in (and with) space like that since LT in the prime years, Terrell Davis in his best years, and Jamaal Anderson in his great year. Basically, Its ok if I run.21 slower than you because When I have 9 feet of open space between you and me, you can't close the gap on me until I have eaten up a large chunk of yardage and that's how I get my yards (and fantasy points).

Overall, the only reason I WOULDN'T take Foster at 1.01 in a redraft is if I know there;s a chump who will trade up from the next spot down to take their name guy AND GIVE ME SOMETHING ELSE TO BOOT.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

People will laugh at you for taking him first but I'd see nothing wrong with it. Peterson and Johnson both have questionable situations which may impact their value. Make sure you target Tate though (probably 5th or 6th round to be sure you get him. Then also nail Ward near the end of the draft.

This is crazy talk. You do not take a guy as the #1 overall if you think you have to take his handcuff in the 5th or 6th. Either you take him #1 because you have confidence he is AT MINIMUM the #1 undisputed back on his team -or- you take someone else #1 overall. You talk like a 5/6 round pick is something you can throw away on drafting someone's backup. Those are the rounds you win or lose your league on and my guess is that if you draft Tate in the 5th or 6th round, you lose your league (unless you get lucky and a Preist Homes/Larry Johnson type thing happens. CAn't plan on htat in my opinion).

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Depending on the scoring and league size, Vick is a viable option. Yes I'm totally serious.

We're talking about "Elite" not "viable"... Big difference

Vick was elite last year.

 

[hook014]

I outright giggle like a school girl when I read threads like this and pray that people in my leagues are reading too and buying into the naysayers.Its funny. The same guys that are blindly saying he isn't worth it or can't repeat it are probably the same guys that were sitting here last year saying he couldn't be relevant and some of them ARE the same guys that say he can't do it again, but for some reason have no problem with assuming that ADP can do it every year forever.Bottom line: This is about name recognition value and the unwillingness to remove biases by some people. Here's the truth, without biases.In a dynasty, I probably wouldn't take him #1 only because I KNOW I can create value by trading down.But in a redraft, I have absoultely NO PROBLEM taking him #1. Why not?-Is it because of the people above who say "go with the proven talent"? What's more proven than FOSTER WAS THE #1 RB in fantasy last year. Are you the same people that said a few years ago "Rodgers had a nice year...but lets make him do it one more year...meanwhile, I'm going with the more "proven" Brett Favre". -Is it because of opportunity? In a redraft, opportunity is EVERYTHING and I can't sit here today and think of a better RB opportunity that ADP, MJD, RICE, or CJ may have over Foster.-Is it because Tate is back? Ok, Is he back? Have we heard he is healthy? IF he is healthy, has he ever PROVEN that he can do anything at this level(wasn't proof a big issue with some people?)? When is the last time you saw a coach whose job is on the line this year decide that now is the time to monkey with things and start pranking around with the #1 RB in football last year by REDUCING his time? I'm going to guess that has never happened unless it was when the player was aging.-Is it because of the "nearly 400 touches" this past year? Ok, 1)we're not talking about nearly 400 carries. Foster had almost 70 catches last year and 326 carries. that is not an uncommon amount by a RB. Its not like they rode him into the ground last year and wore him out. 2) Why on Earth is it that this number means EVERYTHING to Foster right now, but meant absolutely NOTHING to ADP in 2008 when he had just as many total touches (and more carries)? Answer: Its name and reputation.People can spin their take on this thing all they want to justify it but when you look at what has been proven and if you actually watched the Texans last year, you know Foster is a very capable back and you know he was a huge part of the offense and put up some great numbers. That comment about his "break away speed" is laughable. I always think of the people that criticized Emmitt smith's speed when I hear that. In the vast majority of times, its space, not pure speed that is the difference maker for a RB and watching Foster last year, I haven't seen a player run in (and with) space like that since LT in the prime years, Terrell Davis in his best years, and Jamaal Anderson in his great year. Basically, Its ok if I run.21 slower than you because When I have 9 feet of open space between you and me, you can't close the gap on me until I have eaten up a large chunk of yardage and that's how I get my yards (and fantasy points).Overall, the only reason I WOULDN'T take Foster at 1.01 in a redraft is if I know there;s a chump who will trade up from the next spot down to take their name guy AND GIVE ME SOMETHING ELSE TO BOOT.

Great post. Well thought out and really hit the nail on the head regarding perceived value and name recognition.I already know I wont have the 1st pick at my draft in Aug but if I did I would pick Foster without hesitation.Had him last year and watched every Texan game. He showed me everything I needed to see.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Shutout,

Here is a rundown dating back to 2004 of the top fantasy finishers.

2004: Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 505.0 Next Year 119.4

2005: Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 422.8 Next Year 150.4

2006: Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 491.4 Next Year 337.8

2007: Brady, Tom NEP QB 521.2 Next Year 3.8

2008: Brees, Drew NOS QB 454.1 Next Year 416.4

2009: Johnson, Chris TEN RB 477.9 Next Year 297.9

2010: Rivers, Philip SDC QB 415.9 Next Year ?????

As we see here no one has every repeated top of the chart. LT led the RBs the next and every though Brees had 400 pts in back to back years A. Rodgers finish ahead of him.

This has nothing to due with "Name Recognition Value", but just the fools gold everyone is buying. As one User said, "yall have miss the boat on that one, a year to late"... He or She was so correct with that statement. He can not produce these numbers again, and guess what, history is on my side. Anybody thats has every had the 1.01 pick wants to draft the #1 fantasy player for that year. hasn't been done in the past 5 years so roll the dice please.

Next... It got me thinking.. Why doesn't no one talk about the system??? This is the same system Denver used that turned T. Davis, O. Gary, C. Portis, T. Bell, etc etc... into stars. Now in Houston and D. Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton became valuable, and now it is A. Foster turns... Remember this guy Derrick Ward the backup up to Foster last year the same guy kicked out Tampa Bay decided to become"viable" again. On his 51 attempts he had 317 yards and 4tds... That's a 6.2 per carry avg... What!!! Come on get real... Ben Tate is younger and faster and I'm sure he will cut into Foster carries....

Please don't talk about #22, he was on a amazing team with a Great O-Line... Foster played with great vision and he was running like a man on a mission. Still doesn't have the contract... "Foster sustained the injury early in the preseason, yet was able to play through it for the entire year." "had an extensive injury history in college. Fantasy owners need to remember the name Ben Tate to handcuff to Foster in drafts.".... That's coming from our beloved Football Guys.... The 1.01 never needs a handcuff... Period

So please keep drinking kool-aid

 

[Ilov80s]

Peterson is the clear #1 pick in my mind. He is just so consistent. Over the last 4 years, he has finished 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd amongst RBs. People are downgrading him because of his situation, but what was so great about his situation in the past? He had a great offense with Favre for 1 year. The year before that Gus Ferrotte was their starting QB.

 

[Heep]

Shutout, Here is a rundown dating back to 2004 of the top fantasy finishers.2004: Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 505.0 Next Year 119.4 2005: Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 422.8 Next Year 150.42006: Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 491.4 Next Year 337.82007: Brady, Tom NEP QB 521.2 Next Year 3.82008: Brees, Drew NOS QB 454.1 Next Year 416.42009: Johnson, Chris TEN RB 477.9 Next Year 297.9 2010: Rivers, Philip SDC QB 415.9 Next Year ?????As we see here no one has every repeated top of the chart. LT led the RBs the next and every though Brees had 400 pts in back to back years A. Rodgers finish ahead of him.This has nothing to due with "Name Recognition Value", but just the fools gold everyone is buying. As one User said, "yall have miss the boat on that one, a year to late"... He or She was so correct with that statement. He can not produce these numbers again, and guess what, history is on my side. Anybody thats has every had the 1.01 pick wants to draft the #1 fantasy player for that year. hasn't been done in the past 5 years so roll the dice please.Next... It got me thinking.. Why doesn't no one talk about the system??? This is the same system Denver used that turned T. Davis, O. Gary, C. Portis, T. Bell, etc etc... into stars. Now in Houston and D. Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton became valuable, and now it is A. Foster turns... Remember this guy Derrick Ward the backup up to Foster last year the same guy kicked out Tampa Bay decided to become"viable" again. On his 51 attempts he had 317 yards and 4tds... That's a 6.2 per carry avg... What!!! Come on get real... Ben Tate is younger and faster and I'm sure he will cut into Foster carries....Please don't talk about #22, he was on a amazing team with a Great O-Line... Foster played with great vision and he was running like a man on a mission. Still doesn't have the contract... "Foster sustained the injury early in the preseason, yet was able to play through it for the entire year." "had an extensive injury history in college. Fantasy owners need to remember the name Ben Tate to handcuff to Foster in drafts.".... That's coming from our beloved Football Guys.... The 1.01 never needs a handcuff... Period So please keep drinking kool-aid

I want shutout to come giggle in one of my leagues...This thread is great debate, but really irrelevant in my opinion because fantasy leagues are won in the middle rounds (A. Foster last year, R. Rice the year before, Deangelo Williams before that). I tend to want to take the hands down #1 and trade him for someone who I see of equal value that can be had for more pieces. So if ADP is hands down #1, maybe Id draft him and then trade him for Foster/+, etc....

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Shutout, Here is a rundown dating back to 2004 of the top fantasy finishers.2004: Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 505.0 Next Year 119.4 2005: Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 422.8 Next Year 150.42006: Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 491.4 Next Year 337.82007: Brady, Tom NEP QB 521.2 Next Year 3.82008: Brees, Drew NOS QB 454.1 Next Year 416.42009: Johnson, Chris TEN RB 477.9 Next Year 297.9 2010: Rivers, Philip SDC QB 415.9 Next Year ?????As we see here no one has every repeated top of the chart. LT led the RBs the next and every though Brees had 400 pts in back to back years A. Rodgers finish ahead of him.This has nothing to due with "Name Recognition Value", but just the fools gold everyone is buying. As one User said, "yall have miss the boat on that one, a year to late"... He or She was so correct with that statement. He can not produce these numbers again, and guess what, history is on my side. Anybody thats has every had the 1.01 pick wants to draft the #1 fantasy player for that year. hasn't been done in the past 5 years so roll the dice please.Next... It got me thinking.. Why doesn't no one talk about the system??? This is the same system Denver used that turned T. Davis, O. Gary, C. Portis, T. Bell, etc etc... into stars. Now in Houston and D. Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton became valuable, and now it is A. Foster turns... Remember this guy Derrick Ward the backup up to Foster last year the same guy kicked out Tampa Bay decided to become"viable" again. On his 51 attempts he had 317 yards and 4tds... That's a 6.2 per carry avg... What!!! Come on get real... Ben Tate is younger and faster and I'm sure he will cut into Foster carries....Please don't talk about #22, he was on a amazing team with a Great O-Line... Foster played with great vision and he was running like a man on a mission. Still doesn't have the contract... "Foster sustained the injury early in the preseason, yet was able to play through it for the entire year." "had an extensive injury history in college. Fantasy owners need to remember the name Ben Tate to handcuff to Foster in drafts.".... That's coming from our beloved Football Guys.... The 1.01 never needs a handcuff... Period So please keep drinking kool-aid

I want shutout to come giggle in one of my leagues...This thread is great debate, but really irrelevant in my opinion because fantasy leagues are won in the middle rounds (A. Foster last year, R. Rice the year before, Deangelo Williams before that). I tend to want to take the hands down #1 and trade him for someone who I see of equal value that can be had for more pieces. So if ADP is hands down #1, maybe Id draft him and then trade him for Foster/+, etc....

 

[Shutout]

Shutout,

Here is a rundown dating back to 2004 of the top fantasy finishers.

2004: Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 505.0 Next Year 119.4

2005: Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 422.8 Next Year 150.4

2006: Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 491.4 Next Year 337.8

2007: Brady, Tom NEP QB 521.2 Next Year 3.8

2008: Brees, Drew NOS QB 454.1 Next Year 416.4

2009: Johnson, Chris TEN RB 477.9 Next Year 297.9

2010: Rivers, Philip SDC QB 415.9 Next Year ?????

As we see here no one has every repeated top of the chart. LT led the RBs the next and every though Brees had 400 pts in back to back years A. Rodgers finish ahead of him.

This has nothing to due with "Name Recognition Value", but just the fools gold everyone is buying. As one User said, "yall have miss the boat on that one, a year to late"... He or She was so correct with that statement. He can not produce these numbers again, and guess what, history is on my side. Anybody thats has every had the 1.01 pick wants to draft the #1 fantasy player for that year. hasn't been done in the past 5 years so roll the dice please.

Next... It got me thinking.. Why doesn't no one talk about the system??? This is the same system Denver used that turned T. Davis, O. Gary, C. Portis, T. Bell, etc etc... into stars. Now in Houston and D. Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton became valuable, and now it is A. Foster turns... Remember this guy Derrick Ward the backup up to Foster last year the same guy kicked out Tampa Bay decided to become"viable" again. On his 51 attempts he had 317 yards and 4tds... That's a 6.2 per carry avg... What!!! Come on get real... Ben Tate is younger and faster and I'm sure he will cut into Foster carries....

Please don't talk about #22, he was on a amazing team with a Great O-Line... Foster played with great vision and he was running like a man on a mission. Still doesn't have the contract... "Foster sustained the injury early in the preseason, yet was able to play through it for the entire year." "had an extensive injury history in college. Fantasy owners need to remember the name Ben Tate to handcuff to Foster in drafts.".... That's coming from our beloved Football Guys.... The 1.01 never needs a handcuff... Period

So please keep drinking kool-aid

If I used that line of thinking, I never would have taken Terrell Davis in 1997 after his great 1996 season when people said he can't do it again...poor little late rounder without name value. And then I wouldn't have taken him again in 1998 when everyone said he was run into the ground. And it would detract people from taking Tiki barber the last 4 seasons. And Aaron Rodgers in 2009. And a whole list of other guys that stepped up and got it done.

I get what you're saying about guys not repeating #1 but no one is ever going to to NOT take LT #1 in 2007 after his 2006 season just because no one has repeated as #1 for a few years. But thats not the issue. Its a completely different line of thinking. Using the chart above, it would suggest we never take a RB #1 (but we know that isn't happening).

To each their own. My response was in how comfortable I was in taking him #1 based on what I have seen out of Foster and his opportunity on that team, etc. And I don't need his name to be SJAX or ADP or CJ3 to validate it.

To be honest, all the naysayers and their reasons sound, to me, remarkably similar to all the reasons why peope were saying that foster couldn't be relevant last year. And all he did was prove all those people wrong and reward all of us that watched him in December of the previous year and said "this kid can play" and pick him up or trade for him. So, I don't buy into it because Its been proven to me that he is just as good as the name guys and he outperformed them all last year. If Ryan matthews would have come into the league last year and ended up the #1 RB last year, he would have been HANDS DOWN the #1 pick in dynasties this year. No Debate, nothing! Name guy..hyped to all ends..delivered. Some ADP supporters would have said "meh" but overall there wouldn't be much debate. But when a guy with no name comes in and actually performs and DOES what everyone is hoping to see out of someone, then suddenly he has to prove it 3 more times than everyone else.

Doesn't make sense. If you spend your life looking for 3 years of proof from running backs before you accept what your eyes and the numbers are telling you, you will never end up with a long term elite dynasty back.

I agree with the person who said drafts are generally won in the mid-later rounds. I play mostly in dynasties so a lot of our leagues are won in December when you are picking up the guy for next year (as was the foster case) or in Jan-May when you are trading.

But it doesn't make it irrelevant because (especially in dynasties), IF you know and are correct in sizing up a guy that is going to be as good or better as a guy that carries a lot more perceived value; that's where you win. That's when you take your #1 pick and give it to the guy with a boner for CJ or ADP and you trade it to him for the #4 pick and something else of good value and you pick your Shady McCoy or Rice Or Foster or whoever else its going to be that is just as good as the ADP or CJ and then you go out and beat him with that extra pick or upgraded player you received in the trade. So, to me, I answered the OP's thought. I think he is perfectly going to be ok if he ends up with Foster with or without trading down). And I think there's a good chance he can create some advantage there.

As far as foster goes, I didn't drink Kool-Aid. I picked him up in my dynasty leagues in December, 2009 after watching him do well against baltimore and Miami and I snagged him everywhere I could in other leagues...and I drank Champagne baby....as I celebrated 3 league winners!

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Haha... I rode Foster to a Championship and a Superbowl (lost to K. Winslow monster gm )... But I know when to let him go and will not redraft him with the 1.01. I traded him in my dynasty league & I got the 1.01 & 2.01 & Ryan Mathews. Now in a Redraft the 1.01 need to be a solid pick were no one can say "See!! I told you so", Foster is just a big risk (S. Slaton AGAIN). Rice, Johnson & AP we know these guys are not getting bench. These guys do not have high draft picks as backup. AP lead the league in fumbles one year and was still in starting lineup, but when Slaton fumble the ball the coach said "stand next to me son" he fumbled again and he was gone to the bench for good!! So ask yourself again if he is worth the risk, cause most of the time if that 1.01 pick doesn't work out, you're probable not playing for the BIG TROPHY...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I outright giggle like a school girl when I read threads like this and pray that people in my leagues are reading too and buying into the naysayers.Its funny. The same guys that are blindly saying he isn't worth it or can't repeat it are probably the same guys that were sitting here last year saying he couldn't be relevant and some of them ARE the same guys that say he can't do it again, but for some reason have no problem with assuming that ADP can do it every year forever.Bottom line: This is about name recognition value and the unwillingness to remove biases by some people. Here's the truth, without biases.In a dynasty, I probably wouldn't take him #1 only because I KNOW I can create value by trading down.But in a redraft, I have absoultely NO PROBLEM taking him #1. Why not?-Is it because of the people above who say "go with the proven talent"? What's more proven than FOSTER WAS THE #1 RB in fantasy last year. Are you the same people that said a few years ago "Rodgers had a nice year...but lets make him do it one more year...meanwhile, I'm going with the more "proven" Brett Favre". -Is it because of opportunity? In a redraft, opportunity is EVERYTHING and I can't sit here today and think of a better RB opportunity that ADP, MJD, RICE, or CJ may have over Foster.-Is it because Tate is back? Ok, Is he back? Have we heard he is healthy? IF he is healthy, has he ever PROVEN that he can do anything at this level(wasn't proof a big issue with some people?)? When is the last time you saw a coach whose job is on the line this year decide that now is the time to monkey with things and start pranking around with the #1 RB in football last year by REDUCING his time? I'm going to guess that has never happened unless it was when the player was aging.-Is it because of the "nearly 400 touches" this past year? Ok, 1)we're not talking about nearly 400 carries. Foster had almost 70 catches last year and 326 carries. that is not an uncommon amount by a RB. Its not like they rode him into the ground last year and wore him out. 2) Why on Earth is it that this number means EVERYTHING to Foster right now, but meant absolutely NOTHING to ADP in 2008 when he had just as many total touches (and more carries)? Answer: Its name and reputation.People can spin their take on this thing all they want to justify it but when you look at what has been proven and if you actually watched the Texans last year, you know Foster is a very capable back and you know he was a huge part of the offense and put up some great numbers. That comment about his "break away speed" is laughable. I always think of the people that criticized Emmitt smith's speed when I hear that. In the vast majority of times, its space, not pure speed that is the difference maker for a RB and watching Foster last year, I haven't seen a player run in (and with) space like that since LT in the prime years, Terrell Davis in his best years, and Jamaal Anderson in his great year. Basically, Its ok if I run.21 slower than you because When I have 9 feet of open space between you and me, you can't close the gap on me until I have eaten up a large chunk of yardage and that's how I get my yards (and fantasy points).Overall, the only reason I WOULDN'T take Foster at 1.01 in a redraft is if I know there;s a chump who will trade up from the next spot down to take their name guy AND GIVE ME SOMETHING ELSE TO BOOT.

I actually agree that Foster is an easy top 3 pick this year but I think some of your arguments, especially the analogies, are just so out of place that I'm going to have to actually rebut against them here.The main thing, perhaps the only thing, really holding Foster down from being the consensus #1 pick in everyone's mind is the idea that he's merely a mediocre talent (we can argue about his talent level all day, but the bottom line is for this analogy we're talking about perceived talent with the people arguing against him) who was in a great situation last year and plays for a coach who swaps out running backs like bad spark plugs. Saying that the people that are saying Foster is not worth the #1 pick are likely the same people who said Foster wasn't worth a middle round pick last year is just horribly wrong. In fact, it's likely that a large contingent of the people saying Foster isn't worth the #1 pick this year are the same ones who were championing him as a great pick in the middle rounds last year.People liked Foster in the middle rounds last year because they saw him as a guy who was a mediocre talent (hence his lack of a stranglehold on the starting job) who could blow up because of the team he plays on if he happened to wind up in the starting job. That's the perfect recipe for a mid-round breakout. Likewise, mediocre back who was in the perfect situation last year is the perfect recipe for a 1st round bust (change in team situation, change in playing time due to perceived talent, etc), hence why those same people wouldn't like him this year. A much better analogy for people "hating" on Arian Foster this year is probably on his own team. The people "hating" on Foster this year are probably the same ones that were hating on Steve Slaton after his 2008 season, because their situations are extremely similar.If you're looking for an analogy that paints Foster in a good light, Priest Holmes is the best one. I still don't believe that Priest was anything special as a running back, but the situation stayed good as long as Vermeil was there and he held onto the starting job (with some help from LJ's practice antics), and it was a recipe for fairly longterm FF domination.Either way though, saying people that are down on Foster this year are probably the same as people that were down on Foster last year is just off. It's much more likely that the opposite is true.The Aaron Rodgers analogy is similarly off. Most people thought Rodgers was a guy oozing with talent. He wasn't a nobody that signed as an undrafted FA and just happened into a great situation. People were very high on him after his first good year. If you're looking for a QB analogy a much better one is someone like Marc Bulger or Billy Volek, or if you're looking for a good one, Kurt Warner.Lastly I want to bring up the last point you made about touches, in that no one was worried about Adrian Peterson's 2008 touches because of his name recognition. To that I say WHAT IN THE HECK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!?!? Lol. Sorry for the caps but were you not here in 2008? There were like three threads a week, some of them that went on for dozens of pages, about Peterson's number of touches in 2008. It was literally probably the most talked about thing of the offseason. Foster's touches last year have barely been brought up at all this offseason, probably with 5% of the frequency (if that) that Peterson's were in 2008. If anything, name recognition makes the high touch numbers MORE apparent, not less, as Peterson, Turner, and LJ all had 100x the amount of talk about their high touch seasons as Foster has about his.I'm a big Foster fan. I've been pimping him since he was picked up as an undrafted FA (even before that), and had the Texans not drafted a RB early last year I would have owned Foster in all my leagues instead of just most of them. But the bottom line here is that Foster is perceived as a mediocre talent in a good situation, and those types are always going to lose out to people who are still performing at an elite level (though not as elite) based on pure talent and with little reliance on situation (like Peterson and CJ424 who both have proven they can perform at elite levels in bad situations).This is the same argument we used to have with Priest vs. LT. And I argued vehemently in Priest's favor at the time, but I can respect that some people are willing to give up 5-6 points per game to get a guy that is much more likely to finish somewhere in the top 5, and much less likely to finish somewhere outside the top 20.

 

[Insein]

2009 to 20101 Chris Johnson, RB TEN 358 2006 14 to 4 Chris Johnson, RB TEN 316 1364 112008 to 20091 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN 363 1760 10 to 5 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN 314 1383 182007 to 20081 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB SD 315 1474 15 to 10 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB SD 292 1110 112006 to 20071 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB SD 348 1815 28 to 1 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB SD 315 1474 15 2005 to 20061 Shaun Alexander, RB SEA 370 1880 27 to 27 Shaun Alexander, RB SEA 252 896 72004 to 20051 Curtis Martin, RB NYJ 371 1697 12 to 26 Curtis Martin, RB NYJ 220 735 52003 to 20041 Jamal Lewis, RB BAL 387 2066 14 to 18 Jamal Lewis, RB BAL 235 1006 72002 to 20031 Ricky Williams, RB MIA 383 1853 16 to 10 Ricky Williams, RB MIA 392 1372 9

Looking at the rushing leaders for the last 9 years, we see them go down in stats every year but in most cases, they were still worth a high draft pick the following year. Foster is a lot younger than some of these guys were on the list. He's going to be good and probably is worth a look at #1. I wouldn't take him there but I would go in the first 3 picks for him.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Peterson is the clear #1 pick in my mind. He is just so consistent. Over the last 4 years, he has finished 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd amongst RBs. People are downgrading him because of his situation, but what was so great about his situation in the past? He had a great offense with Favre for 1 year. The year before that Gus Ferrotte was their starting QB.

Their offensive line is much worse than it was a few years ago.

 

[footballsavvy]

Nitpicking the top 10 or 12 picks doesn't make a hill of beans. It the later round picks that get you into the championship. McFadden, Hillis, McCoy, Foster, Lloyd, Collie, etc. Those picks matter much more than who you take in the first round.

Chris Johnson might score 50 more points than Ray Rice or whatever, but how many more points did Peyton Hillis score than Cadillac Williams? Those are the choices that matter.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

I outright giggle like a school girl when I read threads like this and pray that people in my leagues are reading too and buying into the naysayers.Its funny. The same guys that are blindly saying he isn't worth it or can't repeat it are probably the same guys that were sitting here last year saying he couldn't be relevant and some of them ARE the same guys that say he can't do it again, but for some reason have no problem with assuming that ADP can do it every year forever.Bottom line: This is about name recognition value and the unwillingness to remove biases by some people. Here's the truth, without biases.In a dynasty, I probably wouldn't take him #1 only because I KNOW I can create value by trading down.But in a redraft, I have absoultely NO PROBLEM taking him #1. Why not?-Is it because of the people above who say "go with the proven talent"? What's more proven than FOSTER WAS THE #1 RB in fantasy last year. Are you the same people that said a few years ago "Rodgers had a nice year...but lets make him do it one more year...meanwhile, I'm going with the more "proven" Brett Favre". -Is it because of opportunity? In a redraft, opportunity is EVERYTHING and I can't sit here today and think of a better RB opportunity that ADP, MJD, RICE, or CJ may have over Foster.-Is it because Tate is back? Ok, Is he back? Have we heard he is healthy? IF he is healthy, has he ever PROVEN that he can do anything at this level(wasn't proof a big issue with some people?)? When is the last time you saw a coach whose job is on the line this year decide that now is the time to monkey with things and start pranking around with the #1 RB in football last year by REDUCING his time? I'm going to guess that has never happened unless it was when the player was aging.-Is it because of the "nearly 400 touches" this past year? Ok, 1)we're not talking about nearly 400 carries. Foster had almost 70 catches last year and 326 carries. that is not an uncommon amount by a RB. Its not like they rode him into the ground last year and wore him out. 2) Why on Earth is it that this number means EVERYTHING to Foster right now, but meant absolutely NOTHING to ADP in 2008 when he had just as many total touches (and more carries)? Answer: Its name and reputation.People can spin their take on this thing all they want to justify it but when you look at what has been proven and if you actually watched the Texans last year, you know Foster is a very capable back and you know he was a huge part of the offense and put up some great numbers. That comment about his "break away speed" is laughable. I always think of the people that criticized Emmitt smith's speed when I hear that. In the vast majority of times, its space, not pure speed that is the difference maker for a RB and watching Foster last year, I haven't seen a player run in (and with) space like that since LT in the prime years, Terrell Davis in his best years, and Jamaal Anderson in his great year. Basically, Its ok if I run.21 slower than you because When I have 9 feet of open space between you and me, you can't close the gap on me until I have eaten up a large chunk of yardage and that's how I get my yards (and fantasy points).Overall, the only reason I WOULDN'T take Foster at 1.01 in a redraft is if I know there;s a chump who will trade up from the next spot down to take their name guy AND GIVE ME SOMETHING ELSE TO BOOT.

I actually agree that Foster is an easy top 3 pick this year but I think some of your arguments, especially the analogies, are just so out of place that I'm going to have to actually rebut against them here.The main thing, perhaps the only thing, really holding Foster down from being the consensus #1 pick in everyone's mind is the idea that he's merely a mediocre talent (we can argue about his talent level all day, but the bottom line is for this analogy we're talking about perceived talent with the people arguing against him) who was in a great situation last year and plays for a coach who swaps out running backs like bad spark plugs. Saying that the people that are saying Foster is not worth the #1 pick are likely the same people who said Foster wasn't worth a middle round pick last year is just horribly wrong. In fact, it's likely that a large contingent of the people saying Foster isn't worth the #1 pick this year are the same ones who were championing him as a great pick in the middle rounds last year.People liked Foster in the middle rounds last year because they saw him as a guy who was a mediocre talent (hence his lack of a stranglehold on the starting job) who could blow up because of the team he plays on if he happened to wind up in the starting job. That's the perfect recipe for a mid-round breakout. Likewise, mediocre back who was in the perfect situation last year is the perfect recipe for a 1st round bust (change in team situation, change in playing time due to perceived talent, etc), hence why those same people wouldn't like him this year. A much better analogy for people "hating" on Arian Foster this year is probably on his own team. The people "hating" on Foster this year are probably the same ones that were hating on Steve Slaton after his 2008 season, because their situations are extremely similar.If you're looking for an analogy that paints Foster in a good light, Priest Holmes is the best one. I still don't believe that Priest was anything special as a running back, but the situation stayed good as long as Vermeil was there and he held onto the starting job (with some help from LJ's practice antics), and it was a recipe for fairly longterm FF domination.Either way though, saying people that are down on Foster this year are probably the same as people that were down on Foster last year is just off. It's much more likely that the opposite is true.The Aaron Rodgers analogy is similarly off. Most people thought Rodgers was a guy oozing with talent. He wasn't a nobody that signed as an undrafted FA and just happened into a great situation. People were very high on him after his first good year. If you're looking for a QB analogy a much better one is someone like Marc Bulger or Billy Volek, or if you're looking for a good one, Kurt Warner.Lastly I want to bring up the last point you made about touches, in that no one was worried about Adrian Peterson's 2008 touches because of his name recognition. To that I say WHAT IN THE HECK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!?!? Lol. Sorry for the caps but were you not here in 2008? There were like three threads a week, some of them that went on for dozens of pages, about Peterson's number of touches in 2008. It was literally probably the most talked about thing of the offseason. Foster's touches last year have barely been brought up at all this offseason, probably with 5% of the frequency (if that) that Peterson's were in 2008. If anything, name recognition makes the high touch numbers MORE apparent, not less, as Peterson, Turner, and LJ all had 100x the amount of talk about their high touch seasons as Foster has about his.I'm a big Foster fan. I've been pimping him since he was picked up as an undrafted FA (even before that), and had the Texans not drafted a RB early last year I would have owned Foster in all my leagues instead of just most of them. But the bottom line here is that Foster is perceived as a mediocre talent in a good situation, and those types are always going to lose out to people who are still performing at an elite level (though not as elite) based on pure talent and with little reliance on situation (like Peterson and CJ424 who both have proven they can perform at elite levels in bad situations).This is the same argument we used to have with Priest vs. LT. And I argued vehemently in Priest's favor at the time, but I can respect that some people are willing to give up 5-6 points per game to get a guy that is much more likely to finish somewhere in the top 5, and much less likely to finish somewhere outside the top 20.

Awesome

 

[NajehHejan]

Still the #1 for this year, IMO, A case could be made for McCoy or Rice, but Foster probably gets the edge.

 

[mr roboto]

Foster doesn't have the break away speed needed to be a elite back. Houston has done a great job of turning Avg RB into Fantasy Gold (D.Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton). I think his performance last year was him playing for a big-time contact, and did an outstanding job... I also think he benefited from extra attention on A. Johnson (who you have by the way). Tate was a high pick and want to get him on the field.. I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

Do people read before they post?He was THE elite back last year. So you are already wrong.

Hmmm.. So is Dwayne Bowe or Brandon Lloyd an elite WR? Is Peyton Hillis an elite RB? They finish in the Top 5 in their positions. Come on fellas everyone know Foster had an amazing year, but do you really feel he can carry that type of load again? NO NO NO!!! I don't see it happening, so if you'll willing to draft him with the 1.01 so be it.

Is he elite yet? Or just another Hillis?

 

[12punch]

Still the #1 for this year, IMO, A case could be made for McCoy or Rice, but Foster probably gets the edge.

this is why I come to the shark pool

 

[SproutDaddy]

Still the #1 for this year, IMO, A case could be made for McCoy or Rice, but Foster probably gets the edge.

this is why I come to the shark pool

For someone else's opinion?

 

[Pots]

Still the #1 for this year, IMO, A case could be made for McCoy or Rice, but Foster probably gets the edge.

this is why I come to the shark pool

For someone else's opinion?

I think he was being sarcastic. 95% of people have Foster/McCoy/Rice as the top 3 with Foster a slight favorite to be #1. So nothing of interest was pointed out.

 

[GreekFreak]

I have the #1 in my league and I am debating between Foster and McCoy.

I am leaning towards McCoy,I think he is going to have a big year.

 

[Shutout]

Foster doesn't have the break away speed needed to be a elite back. Houston has done a great job of turning Avg RB into Fantasy Gold (D.Williams, R. Dayne, and S. Slaton). I think his performance last year was him playing for a big-time contact, and did an outstanding job... I also think he benefited from extra attention on A. Johnson (who you have by the way). Tate was a high pick and want to get him on the field.. I wouldn't touch him in the first round.

Do people read before they post?He was THE elite back last year. So you are already wrong.

Hmmm.. So is Dwayne Bowe or Brandon Lloyd an elite WR? Is Peyton Hillis an elite RB? They finish in the Top 5 in their positions. Come on fellas everyone know Foster had an amazing year, but do you really feel he can carry that type of load again? NO NO NO!!! I don't see it happening, so if you'll willing to draft him with the 1.01 so be it.

Is he elite yet? Or just another Hillis?

yeah, somehow i feel better about going to bat for Foster. I think there is a lot to learn about players performing that get glossed over just because they don't have the "name" yet.

 

[NajehHejan]

Still the #1 for this year, IMO, A case could be made for McCoy or Rice, but Foster probably gets the edge.

this is why I come to the shark pool

For someone else's opinion?

I think he was being sarcastic. 95% of people have Foster/McCoy/Rice as the top 3 with Foster a slight favorite to be #1. So nothing of interest was pointed out.

My comments were just to bump the thread to point out the massive fail contained within.