Chase Stuart
Footballguy
At this point, I'd take the Patriots. I've never taken a team vs. the field this early in my life.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
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As of right now...who wins the Super Bowl? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chase Stuart
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I'd bet the field, just based on odds alone.
Colts or Steelers could knock them off
Colts or Steelers could knock them off
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Because this week's game will indicate how good New England really is? Pfft. It is the opposite. Win, lose, or draw this week, we all know how good the Patriots are. This week's game will say more about how good Dallas is.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The odds favor the Pats, IMO.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Who gets home field in AFC title game Colts/Pats will be huge. And the regular season game this year is in Indy, so Indy might have the tie breaker.
perry147
Footballguy
The pats have not played an offense like the Colts this year. Peyton looks the best I have even seen a QB play EVER.He is unstoppable.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
No. Colts are still a long shot to win in Foxboro on January 20th. I'd give them roughly a 25% chance.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
For starters, I don't think HFA will be huge at all. Pats won't have a problem winning in Indy, which they'll do in week 9.Indy, even if they beat New England (which I don't think will happen) is still going to finish with fewer wins than NE, IMO.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
2004 down?
perry147
Footballguy
I think he looks even better than that year.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Manning 200769.7% completion percentage10 TDs263.8 yards/game8.0 yards/attemptBrady 200774.1% completion percentage16 TDs (3.20 TDs/game)276.6 yards/game8.8 yards/attemptManning 200467.6% completion percentage3.06 TDs/game284.8 yards/game9.2 yards/attemptIn Brady's first five games this year, he's put up numbers that are equivalent to Manning's best year ever. And he still hasn't had enough time to get comfortable with his receivers. He's crushing Manning's stats this year in every category.
Blind homerism doesn't suit you. The Pats only tough opponent was a home game against a good team that has yet to find their way this season. Lets wait for the half-way point of the season or at least for them to have a quality win.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
FWIW, here are my breakdowns:
90% chance of beating some hack NFC team
75% chance of beating the Colts
90% chance of beating the pathetic AFC West winner/Houston/Tennessee/Cincinnati/Baltimore
80% chance of being the #1 seed
49% chance of winning the SB as the #1 seed
90% chance of beating some hack NFC team
65% chance of beating the Colts at the RCA Dome
85% chance of beating Pittsburgh
18% chance of being the #2 seed
9% chance of winning the SB as the #2 seed
58% chance of New England winning the Super Bowl.
2% chance Brady gets hurt.
90% chance of beating some hack NFC team
75% chance of beating the Colts
90% chance of beating the pathetic AFC West winner/Houston/Tennessee/Cincinnati/Baltimore
80% chance of being the #1 seed
49% chance of winning the SB as the #1 seed
90% chance of beating some hack NFC team
65% chance of beating the Colts at the RCA Dome
85% chance of beating Pittsburgh
18% chance of being the #2 seed
9% chance of winning the SB as the #2 seed
58% chance of New England winning the Super Bowl.
2% chance Brady gets hurt.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
FWIW, NE is currently an 8/13 favorite to win the Super Bowl so Vegas has them at much better odds than the field...
As was pointed out in the other thread, this is only 5 games for Brady. Do you really think he'll maintain that pace once the weather breaks? What about when they face a good D? For that matter even a good one? I think the Pats are great, but I think you're putting way too much reliance on stats from just 5 games.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Why? Do you not think that Tom Brady is for real? Do you think that Moss is just an average WR? Do you think the Pats OL isn't any good? Do you think Bill Belichick is just coaching a few good games? Do the Patriots not have the best front 7 in the league?What exactly do you need to wait for? This team was in an elite tier last year with just two other teams in the NFL. Since then, they've added an awesome WR, a good WR, a very good possession WR, an awesome LB, and now have excellent depth in the secondary. Seriously, what are you waiting to see?
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I see NWE at 7/5. Where do you see 8/13?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
end the season then, no one has a chance to beat them
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
As of right now, I've got Brady just a hair behind Manning's 2004 pace. He is averaging 9.20 adjusted yards per attempt, while Manning averaged 9.25 adjusted yards per attempt that season. And Manning's 2004 season might have been the best season.
purestrength
Footballguy
Considering the Colts have beaten the Patriots three straight times (soon to be four). . .
Considering Manning is so deep in Belichick's head that no amount of cheating can overcome it now. . .
Considering the Colts won the Super Bowl eight months ago and don't look any weaker now (even when Harrison, Addai and Sanders don't play). . .
Let's just say, I wouldn't be plunking my money down on the Patriots so fast.
Considering Manning is so deep in Belichick's head that no amount of cheating can overcome it now. . .
Considering the Colts won the Super Bowl eight months ago and don't look any weaker now (even when Harrison, Addai and Sanders don't play). . .
Let's just say, I wouldn't be plunking my money down on the Patriots so fast.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
I took it from this guy's blog which is supposedly from BetUS.com...I can't access gambling sites right now from work so if you can, that would be more accurate...http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/nfl/...dds_to_win.html
radballs
Footballguy
perry147
Footballguy
Manning plays home game indoors and Pats plays outside. Can you get some stats on how Brady's numbers compare when playing outside vs (early in the season and indoors)?
radballs
Footballguy
Yep. This is what sportsbook.com lists it at. Chargers look nice at 12-1.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
About 20%NE @ DAL = 85% NE winNE @ MIA = 85% NE winWAS @ NE = 90% NE winNE @ IND = 70% NE winNE @ BUF = 90% NE winPHI @ NE = 90% NE win NE @ BAL = 85% NE winPIT @ NE = 85% NE winNYJ @ NE = 90% NE winMIA @ NE = 90% NE winNE @ NYG = 90% NE win
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Fixed, GB.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
You do know that Norv Turner is still their head coach, right?
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Before I run the numbers, can someone confirm these are the only indoor teams from 2001-2006:HoustonIndianapolisDallas (irrelevant, since Brady's never played at Texas Stadium)DetroitMinnesotaNew OrleansAtlantaSt. LouisArizona was outdoors before this yearThat it?
radballs
Footballguy
Fixed. About 3.5%.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Re: this was only five games:I'm responding to Perry, who said that Manning looks better this year (in the five games he's played) than any QB he's seen play EVER. Over the same five game stretch, Brady looks better.
Re: later in the season once the weather breaks:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7410468
Re: what happens when they face a good D?
Tom Brady has never faced a good D before. He'll probably fold under the pressure.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I'd advise against that when playing craps.If the Pats stay reasonably healthy I don't see how they lose. If they lost Brady or BB for some reason, things would be different.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Brady, by my count, has played 8 games in domes:
Code:
Year Wk Opp Cmp Att Pyd TD INT Y/A2001 6 clt 16 20 202 3 0 10.12001 8 atl 21 31 250 3 0 8.12002 13 det 18 30 210 0 1 7.02003 12 htx 29 47 368 2 2 7.82003 13 clt 26 35 236 2 2 6.72004 9 ram 18 31 234 2 0 7.52005 5 atl 22 27 350 3 1 13.02006 8 min 29 43 372 4 1 8.7perry147
Footballguy
Kingdome - Seattle (Seahawks moved into their current stadium in the summer of 2002)
Sabertooth
Footballguy
It's going to be David v Goliath in there. I think the only teams with a chance in the NFC are Washington and Arizona. And they'd have to play the game of their lives to do it.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Good catch, but fortunately NE hasn't played in Seattle during the Brady era.
Butters
Footballguy
I wouldn't advise playing craps at all.
Really, though, can anyone at Week 6 say with confidence that the Pats would be 80% likely to win each of their playoff games? Because that's what it would take to stand a 50/50 shot at the Super Bowl. I like their chances better than anyone else's, but its way too early to be that confident.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Your loss.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I can only assume you picked Arizona because the Super Bowl is going to be there.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Why?Are the Chargers going to trade for Champ Bailey and Chris McAllister between now and January? Are the Titans going to trade for Steve Smith? Are the Ravens going to add Peyton Manning? Because none of those teams have better than a 1/10 chance of going into Foxboro and winning, IMO. The AFC has won the last four SBs and six of the last seven. The Pats, IMO have an 80% chance of winning the SB if they make it. There's a serious flaw on every NFC team.I wouldn't advise playing craps at all.Really, though, can anyone at Week 6 say with confidence that the Pats would be 80% likely to win each of their playoff games? Because that's what it would take to stand a 50/50 shot at the Super Bowl. I like their chances better than anyone else's, but its way too early to be that confident.
timschochet
Footballguy
I used to take the field every year against the Chicago Bulls during their heydey, and always lost.
However, in Basketball the best team usually almost always wins, because of the combination of higher scoring and 7 game series, its very hard to beat the favorite in the NBA
On the other hand, football is a low scoring game (relatively speaking) with a single game playoff elimination. And that makes it much more likely for an upset.
The best and most recent example comes from 2 years ago. This year, everyone is wondering if the Patriots are one of the best teams ever. Yet if you remember in 2005, Indy won their first 13 games (or was it 14?) destroyed everyone in their path, and people were wondering if THAT was the best team ever. One of the teams they destroyed on a Monday night was Pittsburgh, and the result was most people said that year that New England might have a 10% chance of beating Indy, the rest of the field had NO chance. Remember?
We all know what happened. Pittsburgh was on a hot streak, rolled into Indy and jumped on them early. The Steelers benefited from the fact that it was only one game; Indy would probably have won 7 out of 10 from the Steelers that year, and I say that as a Steeler fan; I believe Indy was the best team in 2005.
This year I believe New England is the best team. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see either Indy or Pittsburgh or some other team holding up the Lombardi trophy when its all said and done.
However, in Basketball the best team usually almost always wins, because of the combination of higher scoring and 7 game series, its very hard to beat the favorite in the NBA
On the other hand, football is a low scoring game (relatively speaking) with a single game playoff elimination. And that makes it much more likely for an upset.
The best and most recent example comes from 2 years ago. This year, everyone is wondering if the Patriots are one of the best teams ever. Yet if you remember in 2005, Indy won their first 13 games (or was it 14?) destroyed everyone in their path, and people were wondering if THAT was the best team ever. One of the teams they destroyed on a Monday night was Pittsburgh, and the result was most people said that year that New England might have a 10% chance of beating Indy, the rest of the field had NO chance. Remember?
We all know what happened. Pittsburgh was on a hot streak, rolled into Indy and jumped on them early. The Steelers benefited from the fact that it was only one game; Indy would probably have won 7 out of 10 from the Steelers that year, and I say that as a Steeler fan; I believe Indy was the best team in 2005.
This year I believe New England is the best team. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see either Indy or Pittsburgh or some other team holding up the Lombardi trophy when its all said and done.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
Last I checked, last year the Bears played NE pretty tough - 17-13 in NE. In that game Rex was 15/34 with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. The Bears defense (without Mike Brown, Tommie Harris, etc.) held NE to 17 points and Brady to 267 yards passing with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Yes, I realize Moss plays for the Patriots now - and his career stats againts the Bears are not great. From 2000-2005 (10 games) Moss has averaged the following against the Bears:5.6 catches/67 yards/.6 TD per game. In those 10 games, Moss only had 100+yards receiving twice - but he was held at 31 yards or less 4 times. Arguably the Bears defense now is better than the defense in 2000-2005 was. Simply put, the Bears physical style of defense tends to "bother" Moss (and the corner that is best known for giving Moss a hard time still plays for the Bears).If (and I realize this is a big IF at 2-3) - the Bears can get healthy and end up facing the Pats in the Superbowl, I would think the Patriots would hardly consider them to be an easy target.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
How many points do you see the Bears offense scoring against New England? 6? Thirteen? Either way, it won't be enough unless Hester scores 3 TDs.Benson should be good for about 38 yards, and Griese for 3 INTs.
Yes, I realize Moss plays for the Patriots now - and his career stats againts the Bears are not great. From 2000-2005 (10 games) Moss has averaged the following against the Bears:
5.6 catches/67 yards/.6 TD per game. In those 10 games, Moss only had 100+yards receiving twice - but he was held at 31 yards or less 4 times. Arguably the Bears defense now is better than the defense in 2000-2005 was. Simply put, the Bears physical style of defense tends to "bother" Moss (and the corner that is best known for giving Moss a hard time still plays for the Bears).
If (and I realize this is a big IF at 2-3) - the Bears can get healthy and end up facing the Pats in the Superbowl, I would think the Patriots would hardly consider them to be an easy target.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Indy lost because Manning blew the game three straight times, starting with the Polamalu interception. That was the knock on Indy, and the reason that nobody that I know on this board said that "New England might have a 10% chance of beating Indy and the rest of the field had NO chance".
NYCGangGreen
Footballguy
You cant be serious...?????That's like me saying if the Jets can get things turned around, we played them pretty tough last year, and even one a game.Fact is, this N.E. team is better than any team they have had in recent years....they actually have WR threats and the D is playing better than I remember.No offense Bears
, but please...take offense, the Bears are who we thought they were....and Griese/Grossman....you will be lucky for a wild card spot.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
This N.E. team isn't just better than any team they've had in recent years. They're a legit threat to put an end to all the 1985 Bears/1972 Dolphins/1989 49ers/1991 Redskins/1996 Packers/197* Steelers/199* Cowboys are the greatest team of all time discussion. They could easily end up being the '27 Yankees or the '96 Bulls.Consider this: The Patriots have outscored their opponents by 117 points through five games (23.4 PPG). They'd only need to outscore their opponents by 168 points (15.3 PPG) over the next eleven games to have the largest margin since the merger (currently held by the '99 Rams).You cant be serious...?????That's like me saying if the Jets can get things turned around, we played them pretty tough last year, and even one a game.Fact is, this N.E. team is better than any team they have had in recent years....they actually have WR threats and the D is playing better than I remember.No offense BearsLast I checked, last year the Bears played NE pretty tough - 17-13 in NE. In that game Rex was 15/34 with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. The Bears defense (without Mike Brown, Tommie Harris, etc.) held NE to 17 points and Brady to 267 yards passing with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Yes, I realize Moss plays for the Patriots now - and his career stats againts the Bears are not great. From 2000-2005 (10 games) Moss has averaged the following against the Bears:5.6 catches/67 yards/.6 TD per game. In those 10 games, Moss only had 100+yards receiving twice - but he was held at 31 yards or less 4 times. Arguably the Bears defense now is better than the defense in 2000-2005 was. Simply put, the Bears physical style of defense tends to "bother" Moss (and the corner that is best known for giving Moss a hard time still plays for the Bears).If (and I realize this is a big IF at 2-3) - the Bears can get healthy and end up facing the Pats in the Superbowl, I would think the Patriots would hardly consider them to be an easy target.
8/13 as in 8/13 = 62%? Or 8:13 as in 13/21 = 62%? I guess it doesn't matter . . .Either way, your second statement doesn't follow from your first. The way the vigorish works, Vegas could have the Patriots as a 62% favorite while having the field as a 65% favorite.
