CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
It's at full tilt and $700, to request a check I have to send them a copy of my drivers license and a copy of a bill.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Assani's Poker Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Assani Fisher
- Start date
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
I gotta get this done too because I hate using epassporte and their stupid $300(and $2 fee) limit. Stars is so much easier- they don't require any proof of identity for checks. I guess I'll just fax my info over to Full Tilt soon.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
agree with everything, but I don't think you can completely eliminate any hand including one that has a 2 since it was folded to an aggressive player in the cutoff.
The Ref
Footballguy
Completely eliminate - no. Probably eliminate - Yes. Whats he going to raise with there? You think he tries to steal with A-2?
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Yes, and many hands much worse than that also. Hes an aggressive player and its been folded to him in the cutoff. Up until this time I had been playing tight. Don't really remember the how tight/passive the blinds had been. I don't see why his cards really matter at that point. Regardless, I do agree with the majority that this is most probably an easier call than I'm making it out to be.And if I hadn't hit the 3, then I most certainly fold to an all in there...not sure about a 2/3 pot size bet.
The Ref
Footballguy
Fair point, but like I said the 20$ bet on the turn all but eliminated the posibility of a 2 unless he meant to bet 200$.
The Ref
Footballguy
I don't want to hijack your thread AF, but I have been playing a live $70 tournament at a racetrack over the last four days that gets no less then 50 people. I have finished no worse then third.
In the tournament 5 days ago I lost early in, I made a promise to myself never play A-Q or A-J "strong" again as more often then not this was the hand I usualy go down with. Over the past 4 days, I have folded A-Q or A-J 6 different times where I would have played it in the past and was able to see the hand unfold by other calls. I would have lost 5 of the 6 times. I honestly think not playing A-Q or A-J like a strong hand has been the differance to take my (tournament) game to the next level.
Thoughts?
In the tournament 5 days ago I lost early in, I made a promise to myself never play A-Q or A-J "strong" again as more often then not this was the hand I usualy go down with. Over the past 4 days, I have folded A-Q or A-J 6 different times where I would have played it in the past and was able to see the hand unfold by other calls. I would have lost 5 of the 6 times. I honestly think not playing A-Q or A-J like a strong hand has been the differance to take my (tournament) game to the next level.
Thoughts?
MrPhoenix
Ron Paul Soldier
I've been reading Scott Fischman's "Online Ace" and he's not a big fan of the AQ or AJ either. As suited hands, they're good, but not so much of they're unsuited.I've been hurt playing hands like 22, 33, KQ, KJ, QJ, etc that are not the "ultra-premium" hands too strongly myself. I'm probably going to start pitching a lot of them into the muck myself a lot more often, depending on position of course.(I know I'm not Assani, but that's just my 2 cents)
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Don't apologize for hijacks man...plenty of them here, and I never mind talking poker.Congrats on your good finishes, but your sample size is ridiculously small and meaningless. Regarding the 5/6 times you folded AQ or AJ and would've lost, your sample size is ridiculously small and meaningless.First things first, stop thinking that these short term results mean anything at all because they don't. Most players would read what I wrote above, agree with it, but still hold on to some thinking that the results are significant. Good players would truly recognize the truth.AQ and AJ are not huge hands for sure.. Interesting math question for you here: If you have AQ UTG in a full ring game(so you're first to act and nobody has folded yet), what are the odds that you are dominated(AK, AA, KK, QQ) by another hand at the table? I think the results may surprise many. Do it for AJ(include AQ and JJ in your 'dominated list') too.With that said, your question is very vague. Are you talking about early in a tourney? Clearly if you're in a push/fold situation then AQ is a clear push. What do you mean by "play it strongly?" Do you mean raise preflop and then continuation bet no matter what? Its hard to grasp what you're getting at without more info. Post the 6 hands as best as you can remember. Post what you would've done before. Post what you did under your new strategy. I'll give you my thoughts. I know that takes some work, but I think it'll help you think through things and get more applicable advice from others as well.
The Ref
Footballguy
I hear you in RE: to the short term results. I am talking about late in tournaments where it really matters when the blinds are high and your in early posistion. The local tournaments offered here are 3K in chips and the blinds push the action very fast.I'll try to recall some of the hands later on, but for right now I'm all about the 16-0 Patriots.Assani Fisher said:
Txns8
Footballguy
I have an receive monthly checks from $500 - $5K from them with no problems. The last one arrvied within a week of the request.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Yeah I was just a little skeptical of giving out a copy of the info they wanted, but I emailed them and I should get a check in 3 weeks. Thanks to Eddie for the $100 transfer, I've been able to cash out $700 and I'm sitting comfy at about $550. :thumbsup:
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
<-- team player!
Txns8
Footballguy
<-- team player!
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Decided that before the craziness that was NYE in Vegas, I'd go play $5/10 at the Wynn last night....my first session that high there. Always fun to move up...was a bit nervous, but I'm bankrolled for it now, so its all good. They started me off in a shorthanded game, which I really didn't like at all, but since there were only 3 of us I didn't want to kill the game by sitting out. And there were 2 other full games going, so hopefully I wouldn't be there too long.
I didn't play that well shorthanded...got bullied a lot and wasn't really feeling like making any risky moves. But I got lucky that when I had 99 against AQ the flop came Q92....flush coming and a four card straight appearing on the board on the river kept the pot smaller than it could've been, but at least I was winning when I got called to one of the main games.
The guy who won the huge set of aces vs set of tens hand against me was there, and the poker gods taunted me as I found out that hes perhaps the tightest player at the Wynn, which if I had known that before would've made me more likely to fold. Anyway, I'll get on to a hand....
Hand of the Day
You have around $2000. You have been a tad bit loose so far in the session, but nothing to really stand out so you probably don't have too much of an image. Villian #1 has only been at the table for 45 minutes or so and hasn't been that active really. Hes played a few hands cheaply, won one decent pot, and otherwise been quiet. He has $3500. Villian #2 is a loose player and probably one of the bigger fishes at the table. He has about $1500.
You have KTs in MP. Its folded to you and you limp. Villian #1 raises to $50 from MP/LP. Villian #2 calls from LP. Everyone else folds. You decide that the 125-40 pot odds combined with your good relative position make it worth a call(though it is arguably a bad play).
Flop comes TTQ rainbow. You check hoping to check raise, but they both check behind.
Turn is a K giving you the full house. You again check hoping to check raise. Villian #1 bets $100, Villian #2 raises it to $300. Whats your move now?
You decide to just call hoping to lure Villian #1 into the pot as well. Surprisingly Villan #1 raises it to $650($350 more). And Villian #2 calls! Now whats your move?
What happened
I've actually been telling this hand from my opponent's perspective because I think its a lot more interesting that way. I was Villian #1 in the hand. What ended up happening was that KTs pushed all in, I called, Villian #2 thought for a while and folded(he later claimed to have had a straight). I won the pot with QQ.
Thoughts on the hand
From my perspective, this hand really wasn't that interesting, which is why I didn't tell it normally. I got a great situation, and since he had just limped when folded to him in MP I could rule out KK and TT pretty easily there. It was a $2700+ win, which was by far my biggest pot since getting to Vegas.
From his perspective, its much more interesting. Personally I wouldn't have called preflop, especially given my description of my own play before the hand. But ignoring that, should he have been able to get away from it? Its pretty tough to put an opponent on an exact hand, but what else besides QQ do I play that way? I dunno....maybe I'm only able to say all of this because I have such knowledge of my own game(i.e. I know that I rarely if ever would've raised with QT in a fairly loose live game nor would I overplay the straight when my opponents have shown so much aggression). And of course its much easier to analyze the hand away from the table than make that fold in the heat of battle. Thoughts?
I stayed out of trouble the rest of the session. Flopped 4 sets on the night actually, which gives you an idea of how well I was running. No other big pots though. Obviously very pleased with my first $5/10 session. I was actually very surprised at how soft the game was. Now let me say that I realize that the game always seems softer when you're running well, and I"m sure thats a part of it. But I really only thought that 5 or 6 of the players that sat throughout the night were very difficult to play against. There were a few tight and straightforward players and a few fish. Lot of money on the table too.
In other news, my friend Anthony has moved here...one of my best friends growing up in Maryland. He got a job with a minor league hockey team here. Happy to have him here. Spent the rest of the night partying on the strip with him and his girlfriend Katie. Good times.
I didn't play that well shorthanded...got bullied a lot and wasn't really feeling like making any risky moves. But I got lucky that when I had 99 against AQ the flop came Q92....flush coming and a four card straight appearing on the board on the river kept the pot smaller than it could've been, but at least I was winning when I got called to one of the main games.
The guy who won the huge set of aces vs set of tens hand against me was there, and the poker gods taunted me as I found out that hes perhaps the tightest player at the Wynn, which if I had known that before would've made me more likely to fold. Anyway, I'll get on to a hand....
Hand of the Day
You have around $2000. You have been a tad bit loose so far in the session, but nothing to really stand out so you probably don't have too much of an image. Villian #1 has only been at the table for 45 minutes or so and hasn't been that active really. Hes played a few hands cheaply, won one decent pot, and otherwise been quiet. He has $3500. Villian #2 is a loose player and probably one of the bigger fishes at the table. He has about $1500.
You have KTs in MP. Its folded to you and you limp. Villian #1 raises to $50 from MP/LP. Villian #2 calls from LP. Everyone else folds. You decide that the 125-40 pot odds combined with your good relative position make it worth a call(though it is arguably a bad play).
Flop comes TTQ rainbow. You check hoping to check raise, but they both check behind.
Turn is a K giving you the full house. You again check hoping to check raise. Villian #1 bets $100, Villian #2 raises it to $300. Whats your move now?
You decide to just call hoping to lure Villian #1 into the pot as well. Surprisingly Villan #1 raises it to $650($350 more). And Villian #2 calls! Now whats your move?
What happened
I've actually been telling this hand from my opponent's perspective because I think its a lot more interesting that way. I was Villian #1 in the hand. What ended up happening was that KTs pushed all in, I called, Villian #2 thought for a while and folded(he later claimed to have had a straight). I won the pot with QQ.
Thoughts on the hand
From my perspective, this hand really wasn't that interesting, which is why I didn't tell it normally. I got a great situation, and since he had just limped when folded to him in MP I could rule out KK and TT pretty easily there. It was a $2700+ win, which was by far my biggest pot since getting to Vegas.
From his perspective, its much more interesting. Personally I wouldn't have called preflop, especially given my description of my own play before the hand. But ignoring that, should he have been able to get away from it? Its pretty tough to put an opponent on an exact hand, but what else besides QQ do I play that way? I dunno....maybe I'm only able to say all of this because I have such knowledge of my own game(i.e. I know that I rarely if ever would've raised with QT in a fairly loose live game nor would I overplay the straight when my opponents have shown so much aggression). And of course its much easier to analyze the hand away from the table than make that fold in the heat of battle. Thoughts?
I stayed out of trouble the rest of the session. Flopped 4 sets on the night actually, which gives you an idea of how well I was running. No other big pots though. Obviously very pleased with my first $5/10 session. I was actually very surprised at how soft the game was. Now let me say that I realize that the game always seems softer when you're running well, and I"m sure thats a part of it. But I really only thought that 5 or 6 of the players that sat throughout the night were very difficult to play against. There were a few tight and straightforward players and a few fish. Lot of money on the table too.
In other news, my friend Anthony has moved here...one of my best friends growing up in Maryland. He got a job with a minor league hockey team here. Happy to have him here. Spent the rest of the night partying on the strip with him and his girlfriend Katie. Good times.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I understand your argument for folding. What hands would raise preflop, then bet/raise postflop? The answer is, AJ/JT/QT/AT/JJ/AA/KQ. All of those hands would have a valid reason to check the flop, and any of them might raise the turn, especially if you were trying to isolate against the biggest fish at the table.
But I don't think I get away from KT on that hand. I think I smooth call if I'm him. With 1750 in the pot, is it worth 350 to call? You're getting 5:1 on this call, and you can probably afford to call a value bet on the river and still have decent odds here. I'm at worst risking a three outer to KQ or AT, a two outer to JJ or AA, or a one outer to a royal. Or, as it turns out, chasing a three outer. I'll take my 5:1 odds and check the river with the hope of calling a reasonable value bet.
Shoving is a huge mistake. The pot stays the same size if you raise, but most likely with more of villain 1's money and less of villain 2's money. And you only get called when you're way behind.
But I don't think I get away from KT on that hand. I think I smooth call if I'm him. With 1750 in the pot, is it worth 350 to call? You're getting 5:1 on this call, and you can probably afford to call a value bet on the river and still have decent odds here. I'm at worst risking a three outer to KQ or AT, a two outer to JJ or AA, or a one outer to a royal. Or, as it turns out, chasing a three outer. I'll take my 5:1 odds and check the river with the hope of calling a reasonable value bet.
Shoving is a huge mistake. The pot stays the same size if you raise, but most likely with more of villain 1's money and less of villain 2's money. And you only get called when you're way behind.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Assani, imagine that you (not the guy whose perspective you told it from) had KT in that hand, and the action went exactly the same as above. Would you have called his shove?
chet
Footballguy
I would guess 20% for AQ and 25% for AJ.Interested in the answers.
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Hey Assani,
How is the football betting going?
How is the football betting going?
Well, based on the stated "dominating" hands, and you holding AQ - there are 24 possible combinations: AK - 12, AA - 3, KK - 6, QQ - 3. There are 1326 potential starting hands - 1.8% are better than AQ in this game.I am not smart enough to figure out the odds that one of the remaining players has one of those top 1.8% hands.
Alias
Footballguy
mutiply times 8 or 9 depending on how many are at your table?
9 man table, it's about 15% for AQ. AJ is 29%.
Last edited by a moderator:
munga30
Checkin' my email
There are 50 choose 2 = 1225 possible hands for your opponents when you hold one combo of AQ. 24 dominating hands in 1225 is 1.96%. The chance that no dominating hands are out there in the 9 other seats is (1 - 1.96%)^9 or 83.7%, so the probability of at least one dominating hand out there is 16.3%. When you hold one combo of AJ, there are 42 dominating combos: AA(3) KK(6) QQ(6) JJ(3) AK(12) AQ(12). That's a 27% probability of a dominating hand being dealt.
Ned
Footballguy
online is rigged! when i have aq the opponent has ak 100% of the time.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Well, like I said I most likely wouldn't have been in there preflop. But if for some reason I did.....Then honestly I'd most likely say yes. So I see what you're saying- he probably viewed me similarly to how I viewed him since we hadn't played a lot together yet and neither of us had gotten too out of line. Its only my full knowledge of my own game would I know that a player exactly like me would have QQ a great majority of the time.Yeah...I think you have changed my view somewhat with that question BF.bostonfred said:
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Havn't kept it up. I beat it for the season I'm sure because I did very well at the beginning, but as the season went out I started to find fewer and fewer lines that I really liked. Funny but the same thing happened to me in 2006 too....maybe its that the NFL is beatable early on if you really know what you're talking about and can pick a few surprise teams and disappointing teams that the public hasn't caught up to yet....but later on everyone then knows.This week I really do like TB -2.5 though. I simply think TB is a better team for sure, so I'm miffed that the line isn't much higher considering HFA is worth 3 points(and arguably more in the playoffs). Maybe the public is overreacting to the NYG/NE game, I dunno.I like the Skins +3.5 a little bit, but I won't bet a lot on my home team ever because I'm biased and I know it. I think Pit/Jaq is very much a game to stay away from as I think theres no edge to beat the juice longterm there. Kinda feel the same about SD/Tenn too. If you put a gun to my head I'd take Pit and SD though.I'm sure theres other betting threads around here so maybe I'll just check those out, but if anyone wants to give thoughts on TB-2.5 here I'll listen. Might make a bet on that one for sure.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
I'm not certain of the answer, but I don't think you can do it this way because for every one opponent that does not have one of them the odds that the next one does go slightly up. So they're not independent events.
Last edited by a moderator:
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
KK should not be included as it's not "dominating" AQ or AJ....
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
you nit
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Met up with FootballGuy "Voice of Reason" a few days ago for some $1/3 action at the Wynn. Fun session, was a cool guy to hang out with. Another guy at the table asked us if we wanted shots a few times and eventually I just said "Whenever you order one, don't bother to ask, just get us one too."....little did I know that this meant a shot every 15 minutes(at least it seemed like it to me). But whatever....some drinks never hurt anyone.
Game was softer than I remember most $1/3 games being at the Wynn...I dunno if thats because I've simply adjusted my perspective having played harder games the past few weeks/months or it was just good fortune.
We had one interesting coversation about how both of us were a bit nervous to play poker in front of each other for the first time....him being nervous simply because he doesn't want to make mistakes in front of me and would rather not have to show any hands down. But as I told him, I feel the exact same way whenever I meet people from the board....especially since I have a reputation as a pretty good player, I feel as if I have to live up to that almost.
We both had really good sessions. I was even or down a little bit for the first few hours before going on a really nice run of hitting big hands and getting paid off. Ended up winning over $500, and I'm pretty sure VoR won even more. One interesting hand.....
Hand of the Day
Since it was only $1/3 and we were drinking and having a good time, I wasn't really paying much attention to my opponents so I don't really remember having a read before the hand on this opponent. However, he only had $140 or so which usually means a weaker player to buy in for so little or to not reload once you get down so far. I obviously had him covered. I hadn't been that aggressive on the entire session, but I had won a few pots in a row.
Two limpers in EP, I get KK in MP and raise to $18. Folded around to limpers, one folds, one calls.
Flop comes AJ5. He checks, I check.
Turn is an ace making the board AAJ5. I don't remember if there were any flush draws.
He tries to go all in for $120 or so, but accidentally string bets and the bet is only $45. Your move.
What I did
I asked him if I called the $45 could we check the river. He said 'yes' almost immediately, which I admit was a bit surprising to me. I called. He had 55 for the full house and won the hand.
What I think I should've done
As it played out, I'm very happy with only losing $45 more there. With his agreeing to checking the river, I think that was a solid move. If he had said 'no' or if the all in bet had been done correctly, its a really tough decision. Its such a strange overbet. I guess I could see that if he put me on AK that he would've gotten paid off, but even still there were so many better ways to play it. With the game being so soft, I think I would've ended up folding had the all in bet stood. Weird play though.
Game was softer than I remember most $1/3 games being at the Wynn...I dunno if thats because I've simply adjusted my perspective having played harder games the past few weeks/months or it was just good fortune.
We had one interesting coversation about how both of us were a bit nervous to play poker in front of each other for the first time....him being nervous simply because he doesn't want to make mistakes in front of me and would rather not have to show any hands down. But as I told him, I feel the exact same way whenever I meet people from the board....especially since I have a reputation as a pretty good player, I feel as if I have to live up to that almost.
We both had really good sessions. I was even or down a little bit for the first few hours before going on a really nice run of hitting big hands and getting paid off. Ended up winning over $500, and I'm pretty sure VoR won even more. One interesting hand.....
Hand of the Day
Since it was only $1/3 and we were drinking and having a good time, I wasn't really paying much attention to my opponents so I don't really remember having a read before the hand on this opponent. However, he only had $140 or so which usually means a weaker player to buy in for so little or to not reload once you get down so far. I obviously had him covered. I hadn't been that aggressive on the entire session, but I had won a few pots in a row.
Two limpers in EP, I get KK in MP and raise to $18. Folded around to limpers, one folds, one calls.
Flop comes AJ5. He checks, I check.
Turn is an ace making the board AAJ5. I don't remember if there were any flush draws.
He tries to go all in for $120 or so, but accidentally string bets and the bet is only $45. Your move.
What I did
I asked him if I called the $45 could we check the river. He said 'yes' almost immediately, which I admit was a bit surprising to me. I called. He had 55 for the full house and won the hand.
What I think I should've done
As it played out, I'm very happy with only losing $45 more there. With his agreeing to checking the river, I think that was a solid move. If he had said 'no' or if the all in bet had been done correctly, its a really tough decision. Its such a strange overbet. I guess I could see that if he put me on AK that he would've gotten paid off, but even still there were so many better ways to play it. With the game being so soft, I think I would've ended up folding had the all in bet stood. Weird play though.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Wow what a depressing post this was....glad to say I'm doing much better now emotionally!
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Played another session of $5/10 at the Wynn last night. First table had a total maniac, but I was card dead...literally didn't win a single hand for the first 3 hours. Maniac eventually got stacked when he got all his money in with AT on a 8TQ flop...I kid you not that he put $3000 into that pot with AT. Other guy of course had the nut flopped straight. I had pushed all in against a shortstack when I had a flush draw and top pair/weak kicker and he called and beat me with top pair/better kicker. That and a complete lack of cards had me down $1100 when I got moved to the main table(was must move game).
And the main table featured some really good players. Tons of money on the table(I'd say definitely over $100,000) too. But I finally hit a big hand when I got TT in MP. There was a straddle and a limper and I raised to $90. 3 callers, flop came 23T. Limper checked, I bet $200, 2 folds, limper called. Until this point the limper had been very tight, he seemed like a regular(knew everyone), and he had $10,000+ in front of him....so basically I gave him a lot of respect. Turn was a 9, no flush draws. He checks, I bet $450, he calls. River is a 5. Only hands that beat me are A4 and 46, both of which would absolutely shock me. I bet $1100, and he called before I even put the money in. I showed, he mucked....really really wonder what he had there, but of course I'm not going to kick nutmeg in someone's wounds and ask to see his hand after I just beat him.
Ended up winning just over $1100 on the night. Very happy that I stayed on my A game the entire time I was running bad and losing.
Hand of the Day
This was at the 2nd table. Both opponents seemed to be reasonably good. I like this hand because I had an interesting decision at every single street, so it might be fun to get some discussion on it. Villian #1 had $900, I had about $4500, Villian #2 had me covered easily. Three limpers including Villain #1, I get AA in MP/LP, I raise to $70. Villian #2 calls from SB, and 1 other person unimportant to the hand calls.
Flop is 288 rainbow. Checked around to Villian #1 who is immediately on my right, and he surprises me by betting $150. With two guys left to act behind, what is your move here?
I flat called. Villian #2 flat called from SB. Turn is a 7. Villian #2 checks, Villian #1 checks. Your move.
I bet $300. Villian #2 folded(he later said he had JJ). Villian #1 instantly goes all in for $380 more to me. Whats your move?
What I did
I folded. The table was talking about the hand afterwards and villian #1 said that he had my AA beat and he seemed sincere fwiw.
What I think I should've done
I'm getting 1710-380 odds here. Perhaps the math nerds can chime in: Assuming that I have 2 outs when I am beat, how certain do I have to be that he has me beat to fold? Whatever it was, I felt very very confident that I was beat. He hadn't played a single hand recklessly, and he had to put me on a high pocket pair. Unless he was slowplaying KK, I can't think of a single hand that I beat, and slowplaying KK doesn't make sense with so many people in there preflop and him having a chance to limp reraise all of them. 22, 89, and 78 all make a ton of sense. As we were discussing the hand afterwards, most people at the table were in the "you simply have to call being so commited" camp, but I still feel pretty good about the fold. Thoughts?
And the main table featured some really good players. Tons of money on the table(I'd say definitely over $100,000) too. But I finally hit a big hand when I got TT in MP. There was a straddle and a limper and I raised to $90. 3 callers, flop came 23T. Limper checked, I bet $200, 2 folds, limper called. Until this point the limper had been very tight, he seemed like a regular(knew everyone), and he had $10,000+ in front of him....so basically I gave him a lot of respect. Turn was a 9, no flush draws. He checks, I bet $450, he calls. River is a 5. Only hands that beat me are A4 and 46, both of which would absolutely shock me. I bet $1100, and he called before I even put the money in. I showed, he mucked....really really wonder what he had there, but of course I'm not going to kick nutmeg in someone's wounds and ask to see his hand after I just beat him.
Ended up winning just over $1100 on the night. Very happy that I stayed on my A game the entire time I was running bad and losing.
Hand of the Day
This was at the 2nd table. Both opponents seemed to be reasonably good. I like this hand because I had an interesting decision at every single street, so it might be fun to get some discussion on it. Villian #1 had $900, I had about $4500, Villian #2 had me covered easily. Three limpers including Villain #1, I get AA in MP/LP, I raise to $70. Villian #2 calls from SB, and 1 other person unimportant to the hand calls.
Flop is 288 rainbow. Checked around to Villian #1 who is immediately on my right, and he surprises me by betting $150. With two guys left to act behind, what is your move here?
I flat called. Villian #2 flat called from SB. Turn is a 7. Villian #2 checks, Villian #1 checks. Your move.
I bet $300. Villian #2 folded(he later said he had JJ). Villian #1 instantly goes all in for $380 more to me. Whats your move?
What I did
I folded. The table was talking about the hand afterwards and villian #1 said that he had my AA beat and he seemed sincere fwiw.
What I think I should've done
I'm getting 1710-380 odds here. Perhaps the math nerds can chime in: Assuming that I have 2 outs when I am beat, how certain do I have to be that he has me beat to fold? Whatever it was, I felt very very confident that I was beat. He hadn't played a single hand recklessly, and he had to put me on a high pocket pair. Unless he was slowplaying KK, I can't think of a single hand that I beat, and slowplaying KK doesn't make sense with so many people in there preflop and him having a chance to limp reraise all of them. 22, 89, and 78 all make a ton of sense. As we were discussing the hand afterwards, most people at the table were in the "you simply have to call being so commited" camp, but I still feel pretty good about the fold. Thoughts?
Parmcat
Canada: Beer, Bacon and Beavers
Hey Assani,My game sucks very badly, and I probably have no business relpying to this thread....but in this hand, I don't think I could get away from this hand.
You said he was short stacked, and only called preflop. I guess you could put him on A8 K8s or something that effect, but I think 99, 10,10 (JJ was already claimed) QQ, KK.
With approx 5-1 to call, I know I would make it...probably lose that hand, and retire to the 2/4 limit game....and the Crown and Ginger would flow!
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Two points:1. He wasn't really shortstacked. I mean, yes he was shortstacked compared to that table, but 90 BBs is a plenty big enough stack to play poker with.
2. Reading through your analysis and re-reading my description of it, I really don't think this hand comes through well through a hand history...it was very much a tell based fold, as I clearly got the impression that he was trapping me based upon how he went all in.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Also just to add: I had my phone stolen, so any FBGs whose numbers I had, if you want PM it to me again. I will keep the same number when I get a new phone.
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
I call "BS" on this...I think you just are claiming this to keep from replying to voicemail....
And i got your PM...by "a few weeks" you mean next week, right? 
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
haha swear, some ******* at the gym stole it. Yea I guess next week as long as you give me some good links to check out.I call "BS" on this...I think you just are claiming this to keep from replying to voicemail....And i got your PM...by "a few weeks" you mean next week, right?
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
You got 4 so far....haha swear, some ******* at the gym stole it. Yea I guess next week as long as you give me some good links to check out.I call "BS" on this...I think you just are claiming this to keep from replying to voicemail....And i got your PM...by "a few weeks" you mean next week, right?
Your Mother
Footballguy
Can you quantify how certain you were that you were beat? 90%? 80%?
eagles2007
Footballguy
Assani
Your hand got me to thinking about something Phil Hellmuth said this week on Poker After Dark. He was talking about odds and 'new math' that is influencing so many decisions at the poker table these days. He basically said he'd rather not call getting the requisite 2.5:1 if he's convinced he's behind, because he can get those chips into a hand later that he's 4:1 favorite in.
I'm wondering your thoughts on situations like this. I tend to make the stupid 'any two cards' call when getting the right odds and rarely hitting a flop that I like.
You were able to fold AA, which is a great fold, since I'm pretty sure 97 percent of us would.
Thoughts?
Your hand got me to thinking about something Phil Hellmuth said this week on Poker After Dark. He was talking about odds and 'new math' that is influencing so many decisions at the poker table these days. He basically said he'd rather not call getting the requisite 2.5:1 if he's convinced he's behind, because he can get those chips into a hand later that he's 4:1 favorite in.
I'm wondering your thoughts on situations like this. I tend to make the stupid 'any two cards' call when getting the right odds and rarely hitting a flop that I like.
You were able to fold AA, which is a great fold, since I'm pretty sure 97 percent of us would.
Thoughts?
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
You didn't ask me, but thought that I'd chime in on this...I agree w/ what PH said, to a point. I trust my gut a LOT in these type of situations, coupled w/ reads, image, villain's image etc. If I feel convinced that I'll find a better spot in which to get all of said villain's chip and I really believe that I'm beaten here, I will wait for another spot. But if there is enough doubt in mind that warrants the pot odds call (say he can be bluffing here 1/3 of the time or more..not likely in this case, but you get the point), you bet your ### I'm calling here. Something to keep in mind in his situation here is that if we know that he knows that we have a big pair here, he can make this play with any two cards, knowing that we read well and that he knows that we know that he knows what we have. Just something to be aware of what this tells villain, as well as the rest of the table that we'll make "big folds". etc.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
We were talking about the hand afterwards and a few players said that they would've called for sure. I said to them "If he agrees to tell us the truth, I'll give you 5-1 odds if you want to bet me on it", so I guess that gives you some idea.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
1. Hellmuth is talking about tournaments where if you make a call when you're only a slight favorite and lose then it will prevent you from attaining the larger advantage later on since you'll either be knocked out of the tournament or shortstacked. In a cash game where you can reload should you lose anything, this doesn't really apply.2. Hellmuth's way of thinking really only applies to tournaments with a good structure in which the blinds are slow to rise. With most low buy in live tourneys, you can't sit back and wait for those huge edges as the blinds will kill you.3. While I agree with Hellmuth's idea in principle, there are a few other lines of thought here as well:-Some players are significantly better as big stacks, and for them it might even be worth it to take shots as a slight underdog in order to accumulate a big stack. -This is especially true for some players in some situations as the bubble approaches. Consider the following scenario: There are a bunch of small or average stacks at the table. They mostly seem timid and really wanting to get into the money. You are an experienced player and are mostly playing for the big money at the final table. You are slightly above average, as is one other player. The other player goes all in, and you see his cards and know that you're a 49-51 underdog. Some players would call there because even though its slightly -EV, the opportunity to then bully the small stacks on the bubble makes up for it.-Moreover many players who thrive on side games will adopt a "get a big stack or go out early" approach. For the top pros, for example, spending 3 days just to cash in the WSOP ME and win $10,000 but then bust out quickly afterwards is a complete waste of time.4. Although Hellmuth is a very good tourney player, he has undoubtedly run well(despite what he may have you believe) in order to win so many bracelets, and he way overestimates his own edge due to his running well and his already large ego. I'm not certain exactly what you're saying though....if you're saying that any player should ever pass up a situation that they're a 2.5:1 favorite then thats laughable. If you're saying that he said that he would pass up 2.5:1 pot odds when he thinks hes about 50/50 of winning, then thats a bit more understandable but its still quite a stretch. And no Hellmuth is not going to consistently get his money in as a 4:1 favorite, especially not against top competition like I believe PAD is(I havn't seen it though, so I could be wrong there).5. " tend to make the stupid 'any two cards' call when getting the right odds and rarely hitting a flop that I like.".....Explain to me what you mean by this. This very well could be a mistake you're making, but perhaps give me a few examples to better understand what you mean.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Assani, I think you're misunderstanding what Hellmuth said. The 2.5:1 I think he's describing is when you see four limpers preflop, only to have the button raise to 8 BB, get one caller, and the last guy decides that he's getting about 2.5:1 on this call, so he may as well see the flop. And Hellmuth is saying, I'd rather be the one raising, and get my money in as a 4:1 favorite with a big pair, than be the guy who makes that call because I'm getting 2.5:1 from the pot. I can totally understand where he's coming from on that, in tournaments, with slow raising blinds.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I miss playing poker.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Let's break his possible holdings into four categories:A) Quads, trips or a boat. With a board of 8872, you have the seventeenth nut hand. The hands that already beat you are 88, 87, 77, 82, 22, and any of the 8x hands, in that order. Against any of those hands except 88, you have two outs with one card to come. Your odds are 1 in 23 of hitting your hand if you are behind. B) 7x, 2x, or a pocket pair. Any of these hands have two outs with one card to come. Your odds are 22 in 23 of keeping the lead if you are ahead of one of these hands. C) A draw. It's pretty unlikely that he would do this with a draw, because the flop was rainbow and there were no straights or flushes. But, in theory, he could have T9, 96 or 56, AKs if the 7 put a second suited card on the board, so it's possible. In this case, he could have anywhere from eight to fifteen outs, so we'll call it roughly 5 in 6 that you win this one. D) A pure bluff. As the shortstack, bluffing into a huge multiway pot, against two bigger stacks, this is highly unlikely. But it's possible he flipped out and was on tilt and shoved with an unmade hand. Your odds of winning this hand are .04A + .96B + .83C + D, where A, B, C, and D are the odds you assign to each of the above scenarios. Since you have to assign a very low probability to C and D, we can assign them a zero probability for the purposes of this conversation, and just bundle them in with B. We can also divide out the numbers to come up with (A + 24B)/25 = your odds of winning this hand. Since your odds of winning this hand only have to be 1 in 5.5 to make it a good call, you have to believe you have less than an 18.2% chance of winning to make the call. Since B can be described as (1-A), and A can be described as (1-B), we can further simplify this by saying(A + 24(1-A))/25= the odds of winning this hand, which you believe to be less than 18%. So we can further reduce this to (A + 24-24A)/25 = .18, then multiply both sides by 25 and subtract 24 to getabout 85%. And I think you were 85% sure he had AA beat. Good fold.
The Ref
Footballguy
Rock Lonemilk
Footballguy
I'm starting to think bostonfred is sklansky's demon spawn.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
oh ok