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Preflop call OOP is marginal and could even be bad depending upon villian(me). Flop play is pretty bad. No real clue why he played it like that or if he cares about this type of money at all.
I think it was 25-20. I'm not sure what you're getting at. No matter what my record was through 45 games, it wouldn't be nearly enough of a sample size to know anything about our system. If you want to be technical about it, 25-20 is 55.55% which only about 1% of the sport bettors in the world can maintain long term, but thats beside the point. We're consistently beating closing lines. That is the main point. And its not my system to sell. Another guy came up with it, and I'm just a part of the team. Its ulimately his decision on what he wants to do with it. Hes been pretty clear so far that he isn't interested in selling picks unless the money is substantial- I'm trying to not give exact $$ figures when I can avoid it, but to give you guys an idea of what substantial may mean to us, I had over $20K in bets yesterday(ended up losing around $900 on the day). Basically hes simply not interested in it.I've now had 4 offers to get our picks. Two were for money(the one here and one on 2p2), one was just to be part of the team(on 2p2), and another was a friend of mine who has done this for years and is sharing his picks in other sports in return(lives here in Vegas). Only the last one we accepted.Didn't you say you were only 25-23 or something like that?
I've pretty much taken the rest of 2008 off because its gonna be insane to try to do this in 2009. I should be heavily rewarded $$-wise if I can pull it off though. I tried once before with shortstacking NLHE(it actually might be somewhere in this thread), but I had a small bankroll and no history of a positive winrate at shortstacking NLHE. I have a solid winrate over a ton of hands at PLO8/NLO8 and the bankroll to easily withstand any variance I encounter at these levels. Will try to post updates as I go along.
ObviousI agree.
How many hours a day will you have to play, on average?ETA: Will you play any NL or PLO if the PLO8 games are slow?
No, I'll probably just stick to PLO8/NLO8, although if December rolls around and I am behind pace but still within striking distance then maybe I'll just play something like 100 $2000 SnGs(step 6 PCAs for example) per day because the huge rake on those gets you quick VPPs.One concern with PLO8/NLO8 is that during non-peak hours there aren't many games running, so I'll have to have a bit more of a set schedule and get at least 5 hours on average in per day from noon-9PM West Coast Time.If I want to play later at night, then I may just play some shorthanded higher stakes games to give myself a bit of a break from the monotony.I won't go into details regarding NBA betting right now because I'm more concerned with this, but our model is improving more and more by the day. We've added in a recency bias, accounted for 2nd night of back to backs, and a few other things. I'm hopeful that by 2009 NBA season, our model will be perfected and we can come close to hitting high 50s or even 60% of our games in 2009.Obvious
Sorry to burst your bubble but your dreaming if you think you can hit close to 60% with NBA totals. CBB totals - MAYBE. Just hit 55% and collect your winnings.No, I'll probably just stick to PLO8/NLO8, although if December rolls around and I am behind pace but still within striking distance then maybe I'll just play something like 100 $2000 SnGs(step 6 PCAs for example) per day because the huge rake on those gets you quick VPPs.One concern with PLO8/NLO8 is that during non-peak hours there aren't many games running, so I'll have to have a bit more of a set schedule and get at least 5 hours on average in per day from noon-9PM West Coast Time.ObviousI agree.
How many hours a day will you have to play, on average?
ETA: Will you play any NL or PLO if the PLO8 games are slow?
If I want to play later at night, then I may just play some shorthanded higher stakes games to give myself a bit of a break from the monotony.
I won't go into details regarding NBA betting right now because I'm more concerned with this, but our model is improving more and more by the day. We've added in a recency bias, accounted for 2nd night of back to backs, and a few other things. I'm hopeful that by 2009 NBA season, our model will be perfected and we can come close to hitting high 50s or even 60% of our games in 2009.
Very ambitious, glll.
Sounds like fun times.
you probably heard of the guy who just did 600K on stars last month so this is definitely doable.
Ok, after re-looking over things, 70K hands in a week is pretty unreasonable. If I can get 50K, I'll consider that a success. I havn't been playing a lot recently, and I'm really pumped up to start this. Hopefully this feeling will stay with me for quite a while. And honestly, all the encouragement and support here only helps, so thanks for that everyone. I'll try to post a bunch of hands each day and discuss them so that I can make things more interesting to follow. Will also give daily updates on my VPP and $$ earned count.
Good luck to you...
Meh, not really all that interested unless I can get a ton of action. The whole idea of that was giving me something to motivate me. Right away, I had someone express interest in betting me $1000, and I figured that I'd get plenty more and hopefully get well over $10K in action, which would give me some solid motivation. But he actually dropped out and nobody else took me up on it....and to be honest, any small amount probably isn't going to have a motivational effect on me, so I don't really see the point as that was the entire point of me doing it.
No, stop 3 betting and start calling in position more, which encourages postflop play and disguises your hand. 3 betting with AA to narrow the field to heads up is fine, especially with a good AA. 3 betting with strong heads up hands like A2Kx is fine as well. Otherwise, just no need for it.Shorthanded(4 players or less) 3 betting with a wide range is a lot more necessary if you're playing against good aggressive opponents(but to be honest, you probably won't be playing many great shorthanded players until you get to at least $3/6 and even then its only the regs who are actually good). But for the stakes you're playing, the reason those games are so profitable is poor postflop play from the vast majority of players. Just play a solid TAG style....always raise if you're coming in PF and it hasn't been raised yet, C-bet often when its heads up, and otherwise just nut peddle and get paid off.
This is a pretty accurate description of my play currently. Today I was re-raised on the river by a high straight with a low and flush on board, then the K-high flush called, and I won a 600bb pot with the nuts both ways. Good advice, thx!
seems like half of the west coast is sick
Me too, it sucks:( Tune into ESPN to watch some nut jump his bike 90+ ft in the air! It's making my night not quite as horrible as it would be otherwise...
1. I wasn't able to play when I wanted to, which interfered with my gym time(pickup bball gameas are best around 5PM right when tourneys are starting) and made me get on a set sleep schedule2. I ran well to make that much imo 3. Even with running well in MTTs last year, I can still make more this year through cash games4. Cold stretch had nothing to do with it5. The day to day variance is a lot less this way
The only other way I see to play this is to check-call the turn, or check-raise if he doesn't pot it. I think most players would bet 100% if they hit a straight there and try to charge the max. for a low chaser or 2 pair+ here, but maybe play is different at 200-400. But I think most floaters would go 1/2 pot, or check and take a shot on the river if you check again.I really like the play on the river, this a great spot to try and catch a bluff. If he hit a straight, he'd probably pop the turn.
Could be anything. Blind vs. blind.
Standard continuation bet for 2/3. His call says he has a drawing hand of some time, but not a strong enough draw to reraise. Something like a jack, or QT or T8, but not a monster wrap.
Another 2/3 pot bet. I like this bet to find out where you are. In pot limit you might prefer check/calling here but in NL I think you have to lead out. His smooth call with a flush draw on board and your blind vs. blind aggression on every street says he doesn't have the nuts, and a set or the low end of the straight reraises you here almost 100% of the time. This might be a case of two pair, pair and a straight draw like QTxx/JTxx/T9xx, or a pair and a heart draw. Really hard to put him on anything much stronger than that - maybe a timid set of threes, but I doubt it. With J9xx, your big fear is probably a hand like Q9xx.
This could be anything, but it's sure not the nuts. KT or T8 would have hit on the turn and either repopped the turn or potted the river. Kind of looks like a value bet, but it could just as easily be a busted draw trying to push you off with just under a half pot bet. We've pretty much eliminated straights and sets based on how the hand has played out so far, so the only things you're really afraid of are 77 or queen high two pair. When you check, you almost obligate him to bluff with his missed draw/one pair hands, so check/fold is out unless he shoves the river. I like check/calling here because you keep the pot small and pick up the bluffs that you miss out on if you lead out. I like the way you played it.
Yeah, that all makes a lot of sense. Right now I'm definitely going to play every day, as I'm extremely motivated and want to get off to a great start. However, as the grind wears on and I start to lose motivation, I very well may take you up on your advice and only play 5 or 6 days per week.
I was getting over 1.5-1 on the call though. Aside from total monsters like 2 pair or better AND a better or equal low draw to mine, I think I'm clearly getting the right price to call, no?As it turns out, he had just that: 2 pair and the same low draw. But I got lucky and hit a higher 2 pair. But all of that is obviously results oriented. Moreover when he makes the play with only 2 pair and no low draw, then I'm a decent favorite.I did note in my post that I was gambling more often in this session, so maybe thats a hint of entitlement creeping in that I'll have to watch out for.Heres let me go use twodimes to look up the percentages of my hand against some of his possible holdings(my % listed first, then his):Against low+wrap(Ah 2s 5c Jh): 39.2% - 60.8%Against bare two pair(Ad 3h 4c Js): 52% - 48%Against bare set(As 3d 3c Js): 39.4% - 60.6%Against low draw + pair(Ah 2s Tc Js): 41.1% - 58.9%Against low draw + two pair(Ah 2s Tc 3d): 27.6% - 72.4%Against low draw + set(Ah 2s Tc Th): 16% - 84%Against same low draw as me + 2 pair(what he actually had): 38.4% - 61.6%I'm sure theres more possibilities, but obviously I'm not going to list them all. I have to be at least 40% to be getting the right odds to call. While I think my call was an interesting and debateable move, I also think that it raises another question: "If I'm planning on making a crying call then was my bet sizing poor there in that I would've been better off just pushing myself and having fold equity on my side?"edited to add: As always thanks for your thoughts....much apprciiated, and I think its very possible that you're right about this hand.
