Attempting to Decode R.B.B.C. - Part III (long) (1 Viewer)

[FantasyTrader]

We left off in Part II of this series making some educated guesses about R.B.B.C.'s in today's NFL. It appears it's becoming more the norm for NFL teams to draft rookie RB's BEFORE they are actually needed, when the incumbent runner still has 2-3 solid years left in the tank. The idea being that the team can still get the veteran his touches while getting the rookie's "feet wet". Instead of being thrown to the wolves from Day 1 he can safely progress through the learning curve of route-running and blitz protection on passing downs on his own timetable.

In writing Part II, I was frankly shocked to learn that the only 2006 NFL offense which willingly gave more than 1 RB (where both RB's had more than one full year of experience) an equitable share of touches was the Oakland Raiders. Runners who cannot prove themselves early are being quickly earmarked as a career backup.

I feel that I again owe it to you guys to point out the fact that I did not bother going back through several seasons to see if these are actual trends. This series is based solely on the 2006 distribution of carries - a much more thorough analsis of several season's stats should be completed. With that in mind, let's take a quick glance at all 32 NFL teams and see if we can't apply what we've learned for 2007.

I'm NOT theorizing about individual player values here. I'm not factoring in the state of these player's offensive lines or their supporting cast in general. Other than the Cleveland Browns I'm not even factoring in a potential rookie runner thrown into the mix. In short - we still have a LOT of off season left and my purposes here are only to make some general assumptions of each teams distribution of carries in the upcoming season - not what these player's will do with those carries.

Arizona - Edge will enter 2007 at 29 yrs. old. The tread is beginning to wear. But he dominated the touches on this team and it was easy to miss out on the fact that he ended '06 in a flurry with three 100 yd. efforts in the Cards last 5 games. If Arizona ignores RB on Day 1 of the draft - expect Edge to again be the workhorse.

Atlanta - The PERFECT scenario where it will be tough for a team to keep a 2nd year runner off the field. Jerious Norwood exceeded expectations last year to the tune of 6.4 yards per! Warrick Dunn - the undying veteran - had arthroscopic surgery on a shoulder that bothered him all season. Worst case scenario for Norwood is a 50/50 split in '07 and there's no ceiling if Dunn's 32 year old body starts to betray him.

Baltimore -McGahee is now the Ravens feature back, but the result is the same as Jamal Lewis (remember I'm talking in terms of ATTEMPTS - not McGahee's potential prodution). No RBBC in Baltimore for '07.

Buffalo - The Bills have desperately wanted to make McGahee their workhorse now for four seasons and it never panned out. With Losman and Lee Evans hitting their stride in the 2nd half last year, I would love to see a workhorse emerge here but I don't. Anthony Thomas is just good enough to be involved and with no other starting quality back currently on the roster the carries for this team are totally up for grabs.

I wouldn't be a all surprised to see a time share in Buffal this year.

Carolina - Partly cloudy is the forecast for DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. It's clear that Foster's injury history has his long-term value capped as a decent bye week RB, however what threw a wrinkle into the mix last year was Williams having some injury issues of his own. It all came out in the wash with the final distribution being Foster - 227 attempts and Williams 121 attempts. The Panthers WANT Williams to win this job so don't be surprised if those attempts are at least flip-flopped this year. However this being only Williams’ 2nd season I'm thinking the Panthers involve Foster just enough to keep Williams value in check for one more year.

Chicago - Cedric Benson's learning curve has been longer than most, but he's ready. RBBC concerns gone. T. Jones was traded and Benson is your featured back in Chicago this season

Cincinnati - Rudi Johnson - what an animal this guy is. Another 341 attempt/12 TD season - ho hum, all in a day's work. The guy HAS to get nicked up or start sharing carries with young blood sooner or later - but if you're looking for someone betting against the guy, you're looking in the wrong place.

Cleveland - The consensus is still that they take Adrian Peterson with the 3rd overall pick. And knowing what we know about rookie RB timeshares is that it's a good bet Jamal Lewis gets somewhere around 200 attempts and Peterson gets sprinkled in for 125-140 attempts. Just good enough to make sure that you can't count on any Browns runner in '07.

Cowboys - You'd like to see a trade or an injury (nothing serious - maybe just your garden variety high ankle sprain) clear up this situation. Sometimes even I encounter a fantasy situation where I'm just lost and here it is. With a new coaching staff and Jones/Barber equally capable last year I'm just going to guess and say that it's status quo in Dallas next year. Take Jones in yardage heavy formats and Barber in TD only formats. How's that for analysis?

Denver - Shanahan almost ALWAYS throws a rookie runner into the mix late into Day 1. Bell was shipped to the Lions and Travis Henry was brought on board. Expect Henry to be leaned on. Mike Bell will be involved as well, but I think this is Henry's show if he's able to stay healthy.

Detroit - The Lions have a long-standing reputation of employing ONE workhorse. Conflicting reports this off season have Kevin Jones not returning until mid/late '07. Tatum Bell had been traded for and will deliver a solid stat-line this year. If Kevin Jones had played all 16 games in '06, he would have projected out to 1,612 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Martz loves versatile running backs and Tatum Bell is exactly that.

Green Bay - Ahman is gone - situation is yet unsettled. I cannot see Vernand Morency being the answer and given what we know that rookie backs rarely see a workhorse role anymore - it's looking more and more like a shared backfiled in Green Bay this season.

Houston - So Ron Dayne is your answer huh? Wali Lundy started '06 with a BOOM and quickly fizzled so his play did not demand more carries this year. For Domanick Williams that 13 TD season in '04 is but a ghost of Christmas Past. As others have pointed out, the Texans timeshare last season was not by design. The Texans have traded for Ahman Green. For better or worse, Green is your featured back for the Texans this year.

Indianapolis - This is Addai's show now. 270 attempts for this 2nd year stud is the STARTING POINT this year.

J'Ville - Another sophomore runner who is going to make it incredibly difficult for his team to keeps his attempts in check. Maurice Jones-Drew did things with 166 attempts that I've seen few other rookies do. A word of caution however. As long as Fred Taylor is in a Jags uniform he'll be involved to some degree and Greg Jones, short yardage guru, will return from an ACL tear. The Jags may decide that Jones-Drew's 5'7, 212 lb. frame is best served up on a 12-15 carry per game platter. As for 2007, there's just too much upside in Jones-Drew for Keeper leaguer's but for the re-draft folks - somebody WILL take M.J.D. as a low-end #1 back in your draft this year. At that price, let someone else have him until the Jags prove they are willing to feed him 20+ attempts a game.

Kansas City - Larry Johnson has established himself as the unquestioned workhorse. Period. Moving along...

Miami - Though Sammy Morris proved capable in Ronnie Brown's stead, Brown gets the lion's share when healthy. Ricky Williams' return might give some owners pause, however at the age of 30 when the 2007 season begins, he's no threat. I cannot think of any other RB who (barring injury) will get 300+ carries in 2007 who's value is lower than Ronnie Brown's right now. Having been misused (by a staff no longer around) and in a struggling offense (who should return Culpepper) Brown's prospects are intriguing.

Minnesota - Chester Taylor quietly had a very effective 2006. At only 26 years old, this is a sneaky good situation for the astute re-draft leaguer in the 3rd round because he'll dominate the attempts for the Vikes.

New Orleans - Now here's a situation. Reggie Bush finished out the 2nd half of 2006 looking every bit as good as the Saints envisioned when they drafted him. Deuce McAllister looked as good as any runner I've ever seen coming off an ACL tear. My fear for 2007 is that if it isn’t broke, Sean Payton won't fix it. McAllister had 244 attempts to Bush's 155 last year and I envision a 50/50 split at least for Bush in the upcoming season. On draft day - when faced with an either/or - I'd go with Bush, the more explosive of the two.

New England - Maroney is ready and even Corey Dillon knows it. His demands all off season for the Patriots to trade him are music to the ears of everyone involved. If Dillon doesn't return, Maroney vaults into the 1st round and there isn't even a discussion of R.B.B.C. in New England.

New York Giants - Upon the news of Tiki Barber's pending retirement during the season last year, it was immediately assumed by everyone (other than Tom Coughlin apparently) that Brandon Jacobs would assume the workhorse role. The Giants have traded for Reubon Droughns. The knee-jerk reaction would be that Droughns is your new "between the 20's" back in New York but I feel this is actually a good scenario for Jacobs to fourish in. Droughns is not that talented - there is a very real possiblity Jacobs wins the starting job outright this year.

New York Jets - When the guy who was only 20 carries shy of being your rushing attempts leader in 2006 (Kevan Barlow) is outright RELEASED in the off season, that can't be good. Well, maybe it can be. Thomas Jones is now the man for the Jets. I don't see Washington denting Jones' production to the point that this will be RBBC in '07. Washington will still be involved but Jones will get his. No R.B.B.C.

Oakland - What fantasy football owners need to know is that JaMarcus Russell will be the rushing attempt leader as he's running for his life. Okay - seriously, LaMont Jordan is only 28 yrs. old and only a year removed from a solid campaign as a #2 fantasy RB. He should be the attempts leader in Oakland but Rhodes ws brought in to hedge the bet. Keep an eye on training camp, but you could do worse as your #3 RB with some upside entering '07.

Philadelphia - Since so much of what Philly does includes a short yardage, controlled passing game involving Westbrook - just looking at his rushing attempts doesn't tell the story. All told, Westbrook had 317 touches (6 yards per) and 11 TD's. That my dear friends, is a workhorse back. And at age 28, don't look for that to change in 2007.

Pittsburgh - Willie Parker toted the rocked 5.5 times more than the #2 in rushing attempts (Najeh Davenport). Before his hire as the Steelers head coach this year Mike Tomlin served as Minnesota's D.C. last year. And before that he spent 5 seasons with the Bucs as their defensive backs coach. Don't worry about Parker in 2007. Tomlin knows the worst thing he could do this year is "Saban-ize" the Steelers by tinkering with everything. 300+ attempts for Parker again in 2007.

San Diego - There's a guy named LaDanian Tomlinson who's pretty good and doesn't share well with others.

Seattle - When healthy, it's Alexander - end of discussion. Ya know what, let's take a closer look just for the heck of it. Everybody wants to just write off Alexander's season as a wash because of the broken foot. To be honest, I'm more concerned about what I saw while Alexander was on the field last year than his injury. In the three weeks Alexander played before the injury he average 2.9 yards per carry and zero TD's. He finished the season with a respectable 3.6 yds per but in his 7 games to close out 2006 if you take away a MAMMOTH game at home against the Packers where he rang up 40 carries for 201 yards, he had 147 carries for 508 yds (2.9 yds per attempt). Ummm, anyone else getting that not so fresh feeling? STAY AWAY FROM ALEXANDER IN '07! Let the other guy take him in the 1st round. Mark my words, there was more going on in Seattle last year than hairline fractures when you read between the lines. The loss of All-World tackle Steve Hutchinson hurt this team and if the losses begin to mount, Holmgren won't rule out giving Morris more looks. Okay, I promised I wouldn't give my opinion of player performences and I just did it. Sorry.

San Francisco - As a rookie Frank Gore showed the 'Niners enough to put Kevan Barlow on a plane. As a sophomore he didn't disappoint in a feature role. Frankly, it's kind of spooky that he did it without Alex Smith and Vernon Davis stretching defenses all year. No R.B.B.C. here for the foreseeable future.

St. Louis - Steven Jackson meet world. World, meet Steven Jackson. No R.B.B.C. worries at all.

Tampa Bay - After 290 attempts for over 1,100 yds as a rookie, Cadillac Williams was handed the workhorse role and proceeded to have the crem de la crem of sophomore slumps. In 225 rushing attempts he crossed the stripe ONE TIME on the ground in 2006. Entering his 3rd year, Williams is still young and nobody currently on the Bucs roster is unseating him. Quarterback play and his O-line didn't do him any favors. Jon Gruden could point the finger at 10 other guys on offense as the reason for Cadillac's '06 woes. So expect him to again carry the load for better or worse this season.

Tennessee - Henry is now gone. The Titans have vowed to add a veteran runner to the mix before the season starts so apparently LenDale White will not be given a feature role. But I don't see the Titans bringing in anyone that is more talented than White. This will be a very sticky situation by the time your draft rolls around in August but I think White could play himself into a feature role.

Washington - I've said Portis is the workhorse back for this offense when healthy and I'm sticking to that but this is a much more precarious situation for fantasy owners than it would first appear. Ladell Betts looked every bit Portis' equal over the final 7 games of '06 and Gibbs could very well decide that the way to keep Portis healthy is to include a consistent dose of Betts. I believe that ultimately Daniel Snyder and the dollar signs on the contracts will prevail, and the 'Skins will want Portis to give them their money's worth. But Clinton is quickly fading as a sure-fire workhorse option in Washington. He MUST stay healthy in 2007 or his future will begin to dim.

Summary: I don't see as many R.B.B.C's shaping up in 2007 as there were in '06. At this early juncture in the off season I see 4 of the 12 running back by committees in ‘06 being resolved. Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and Oakland (it now appears the Raiders will have BOTH Jordan and Rhodes clamoring for carries this year) appear poised to feature a standalone RB in 2007. Meanwhile Buffalo and the Giants are two teams that look ripe for shared rushing attempts this season. There are still injuries to be had, rookies to be drafted - players who will over perform/under perform their expectations so things will certainly change.

There’s also the possibility that I am short-changing several 2nd year RB’s here. Jerious Norwood, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew and Reggie Bush all had varying degrees of success last year (MJD and Bush having monster seasons by rookie standards) and I’m still seeing shared time for all of them!?! That doesn’t sound right. Keep an eye on these situations over the next several months because there are a handful ofbackfield situations that could be instantly cleared up based on a trade, injury or other factors.

Okay - tear me apart. If ya think I'm full of it, let me know. I'd like to hear where others disagree with me.

 

[s_ezy]

a fine post, but could you post links to parts 1 and 2

 

[The Shizzle]

I would be surprised to see Adrian Peterson get quite a few touches in Chitown this year.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Washington - I've said Portis is the workhorse back for this offense when healthy and I'm sticking to that but this is a much more precarious situation for fantasy owners than it would first appear. Ladell Betts looked every bit Portis' equal over the final 7 games of '06 and Gibbs could very well decide that the way to keep Portis healthy is to include a consistent dose of Betts. I believe that ultimately Daniel Snyder and the dollar signs on the contracts will prevail, and the 'Skins will want Portis to give them their money's worth. But Clinton is quickly fading as a sure-fire workhorse option in Washington. He MUST stay healthy in 2007 or his future will begin to dim.

I'm going to disagree, somewhat, with the bolded part. Betts may have put up "Portis-esque" stats, but he did not look like Portis' equal as a RB. Betts was running through monster holes during that last stretch, but was generally taken down pretty easily by LBs and Ss once he reached the second level (his longest rush during that stretch was for 25 yards, and he only had 4 runs of 20+ yards). Betts does not have the vision and/or the moves to avoid or make defenders miss in the open field. Portis is still the superior RB in that department.I do agree with your last sentence, though. Portis' health this year should be closely watched.

 

[moleculo]

...Detroit - The Lions have a long-standing reputation of employing ONE workhorse. Conflicting reports this off season have Kevin Jones not returning until mid/late '07. Tatum Bell had been traded for and will deliver a solid stat-line this year. If Kevin Jones had played all 16 games in '06, he would have projected out to 1,612 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Martz loves versatile running backs and Tatum Bell is exactly that. ...New York Giants - Upon the news of Tiki Barber's pending retirement during the season last year, it was immediately assumed by everyone (other than Tom Coughlin apparently) that Brandon Jacobs would assume the workhorse role. The Giants have traded for Reubon Droughns. The knee-jerk reaction would be that Droughns is your new "between the 20's" back in New York but I feel this is actually a good scenario for Jacobs to fourish in. Droughns is not that talented - there is a very real possiblity Jacobs wins the starting job outright this year....Summary: I don't see as many R.B.B.C's shaping up in 2007 as there were in '06. At this early juncture in the off season I see 4 of the 12 running back by committees in ‘06 being resolved. Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and Oakland (it now appears the Raiders will have BOTH Jordan and Rhodes clamoring for carries this year) appear poised to feature a standalone RB in 2007. Meanwhile Buffalo and the Giants are two teams that look ripe for shared rushing attempts this season. There are still injuries to be had, rookies to be drafted - players who will over perform/under perform their expectations so things will certainly change.There’s also the possibility that I am short-changing several 2nd year RB’s here. Jerious Norwood, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew and Reggie Bush all had varying degrees of success last year (MJD and Bush having monster seasons by rookie standards) and I’m still seeing shared time for all of them!?! That doesn’t sound right. Keep an eye on these situations over the next several months because there are a handful ofbackfield situations that could be instantly cleared up based on a trade, injury or other factors. Okay - tear me apart. If ya think I'm full of it, let me know. I'd like to hear where others disagree with me.

excellent breakdown. my comments:TBell is not versatile. He has rather poor hands, which is unfortunate. Last year he had only 24 receptions for 115 yards - 60th in the league for RB's. Given that, unless Martz plans on teaching Bell how to catch, I don't think it is possible to shoe-horn TBell into the MFaulk mold. I think he is destined for the Trung Candidate role. I think Martz wil llimp along w/ Bell, Bryson, and Calhoun until Jones is healthy, and then it's Jones' position after that. Messy all around.On Droughns - he may not be the most talented, but don't underestimate his heart. He seems to me to be the Coughlin kind of guy - hard working, over-achieving. Jacobs may win the job outright, but if he does so, it will be because he is good, not because Droughns is bad. Should be a good camp battle to keep an eye on.

 

[FantasyTrader]

...Detroit - The Lions have a long-standing reputation of employing ONE workhorse. Conflicting reports this off season have Kevin Jones not returning until mid/late '07. Tatum Bell had been traded for and will deliver a solid stat-line this year. If Kevin Jones had played all 16 games in '06, he would have projected out to 1,612 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Martz loves versatile running backs and Tatum Bell is exactly that. ...New York Giants - Upon the news of Tiki Barber's pending retirement during the season last year, it was immediately assumed by everyone (other than Tom Coughlin apparently) that Brandon Jacobs would assume the workhorse role. The Giants have traded for Reubon Droughns. The knee-jerk reaction would be that Droughns is your new "between the 20's" back in New York but I feel this is actually a good scenario for Jacobs to fourish in. Droughns is not that talented - there is a very real possiblity Jacobs wins the starting job outright this year....Summary: I don't see as many R.B.B.C's shaping up in 2007 as there were in '06. At this early juncture in the off season I see 4 of the 12 running back by committees in ‘06 being resolved. Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and Oakland (it now appears the Raiders will have BOTH Jordan and Rhodes clamoring for carries this year) appear poised to feature a standalone RB in 2007. Meanwhile Buffalo and the Giants are two teams that look ripe for shared rushing attempts this season. There are still injuries to be had, rookies to be drafted - players who will over perform/under perform their expectations so things will certainly change.There’s also the possibility that I am short-changing several 2nd year RB’s here. Jerious Norwood, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew and Reggie Bush all had varying degrees of success last year (MJD and Bush having monster seasons by rookie standards) and I’m still seeing shared time for all of them!?! That doesn’t sound right. Keep an eye on these situations over the next several months because there are a handful ofbackfield situations that could be instantly cleared up based on a trade, injury or other factors. Okay - tear me apart. If ya think I'm full of it, let me know. I'd like to hear where others disagree with me.

excellent breakdown. my comments:TBell is not versatile. He has rather poor hands, which is unfortunate. Last year he had only 24 receptions for 115 yards - 60th in the league for RB's. Given that, unless Martz plans on teaching Bell how to catch, I don't think it is possible to shoe-horn TBell into the MFaulk mold. I think he is destined for the Trung Candidate role. I think Martz wil llimp along w/ Bell, Bryson, and Calhoun until Jones is healthy, and then it's Jones' position after that. Messy all around.On Droughns - he may not be the most talented, but don't underestimate his heart. He seems to me to be the Coughlin kind of guy - hard working, over-achieving. Jacobs may win the job outright, but if he does so, it will be because he is good, not because Droughns is bad. Should be a good camp battle to keep an eye on.

Thanks - good points on Bell and Doughns. Especially Droughns, he sure does run hard. I'm just thinking he doesn't have the Pedigree of the other runners New York could have aquired (McGahee, Lewis) which could crack the door wider for Jacobs if he does pick up where he left off.

 

[Chase Stuart]

New York Jets - When the guy who was only 20 carries shy of being your rushing attempts leader in 2006 (Kevan Barlow) is outright RELEASED in the off season, that can't be good. Well, maybe it can be. Thomas Jones is now the man for the Jets. I don't see Washington denting Jones' production to the point that this will be RBBC in '07. Washington will still be involved but Jones will get his. No R.B.B.C.

I'm not going to say I disagree with you, but I'm not really sure where this analysis comes from. This is Part III of a series of empirical analysis of RBBC in the NFL, which I assume you did because you were trying to base your opinions off of last year's results.The Jets had a RBBC last year. Thomas Jones was in a RBBC last year. You said all RBBCs involve first or second year RBs. Leon Washington was a rookie last year and played well, which you said is a strong indicator that he'll get more carries the next year.

In short, all the evidence you presented in the first two posts made me think you'd predict a heavy RBBC for the Jets. Now you say no RBBC. I'm not sure how that follows. (If you just made a post saying I think Thomas Jones is going to be the main man for the Jets, then fine. But to spend lots of time showing how the '06 Jets used RBBC and the same coaching staff returns, and how Washington was a rookie that ran well and those players get more carries the next year, and how Jones was in a RBBC last year, and how all RBBCs involve a young and an old player, your conclusion that the Jets won't use a RBBC surprised me.)

 

[Fullback Fro]

New England - Maroney is ready and even Corey Dillon knows it. His demands all off season for the Patriots to trade him are music to the ears of everyone involved. If Dillon doesn't return, Maroney vaults into the 1st round and there isn't even a discussion of R.B.B.C. in New England.

Link to trade demands? I've not heard he wanted to be traded. He was due a 5mil roster bonus. Too much for the Pats to eat so they released him. Never once heard of a trade request.

 

[FantasyTrader]

New England - Maroney is ready and even Corey Dillon knows it. His demands all off season for the Patriots to trade him are music to the ears of everyone involved. If Dillon doesn't return, Maroney vaults into the 1st round and there isn't even a discussion of R.B.B.C. in New England.

Link to trade demands? I've not heard he wanted to be traded. He was due a 5mil roster bonus. Too much for the Pats to eat so they released him. Never once heard of a trade request.

You're right, he only asked for his relase before free-agency period began. My bad.

 

[FantasyTrader]

New York Jets - When the guy who was only 20 carries shy of being your rushing attempts leader in 2006 (Kevan Barlow) is outright RELEASED in the off season, that can't be good. Well, maybe it can be. Thomas Jones is now the man for the Jets. I don't see Washington denting Jones' production to the point that this will be RBBC in '07. Washington will still be involved but Jones will get his. No R.B.B.C.

I'm not going to say I disagree with you, but I'm not really sure where this analysis comes from. This is Part III of a series of empirical analysis of RBBC in the NFL, which I assume you did because you were trying to base your opinions off of last year's results.The Jets had a RBBC last year. Thomas Jones was in a RBBC last year. You said all RBBCs involve first or second year RBs. Leon Washington was a rookie last year and played well, which you said is a strong indicator that he'll get more carries the next year.

In short, all the evidence you presented in the first two posts made me think you'd predict a heavy RBBC for the Jets. Now you say no RBBC. I'm not sure how that follows. (If you just made a post saying I think Thomas Jones is going to be the main man for the Jets, then fine. But to spend lots of time showing how the '06 Jets used RBBC and the same coaching staff returns, and how Washington was a rookie that ran well and those players get more carries the next year, and how Jones was in a RBBC last year, and how all RBBCs involve a young and an old player, your conclusion that the Jets won't use a RBBC surprised me.)

The Jets are one of the teams that puzzled me, so it's no surprise that came across in my post. I have mixed feelings. Part of me says Washington performed well enough to at least duplicate his '06 touches. The other part says why trade for Jones (and sign him to 4-years with $12 mil guaranteed) if you're not going to give him 18-23 touches a game? I don't know. Maybe that's what I should say instead of continuing to defend myself - I don't know - lol.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Mangini loves the RBBC concept.

That's part of the reason I'm downgrading TJones for next year. He won't get as much work as he did in Chicago.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Mangini loves the RBBC concept.That's part of the reason I'm downgrading TJones for next year. He won't get as much work as he did in Chicago.

I wouldn't be so quick to go with that. I don't think we have lots of data to support that theory. All we know is that when Kevan Barlow is your RB1, Mangini/Schottenheimer like to use RBBC. When LT is your RB1, Schottenheimer doesn't like to use RBBC. Mangini wasn't part of the offense in NE obviously, but he's from the Belichick/Parcells tree. While Belichick hasn't had many talented backs, Dillon averaged over 100 rushing yards per game in NE, and Parcells got the reputation for running his RBs into the ground. Once again, it's not telling us much. The Jets didn't have a stud RB last year. I don't think Thomas Jones qualifies as a stud RB, but he might be studly enough. I think Leon Washington is very good, so he should get carries regardless. But I don't see any reason to think Mangini will be a RBBC coach.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Mangini loves the RBBC concept.

That's part of the reason I'm downgrading TJones for next year. He won't get as much work as he did in Chicago.

I wouldn't be so quick to go with that. I don't think we have lots of data to support that theory. All we know is that when Kevan Barlow is your RB1, Mangini/Schottenheimer like to use RBBC. When LT is your RB1, Schottenheimer doesn't like to use RBBC. Mangini wasn't part of the offense in NE obviously, but he's from the Belichick/Parcells tree. While Belichick hasn't had many talented backs, Dillon averaged over 100 rushing yards per game in NE, and Parcells got the reputation for running his RBs into the ground. Once again, it's not telling us much. The Jets didn't have a stud RB last year. I don't think Thomas Jones qualifies as a stud RB, but he might be studly enough. I think Leon Washington is very good, so he should get carries regardless. But I don't see any reason to think Mangini will be a RBBC coach.

Granted this is pre-Thomas Jones trade, but:RBBC for NYJ

Tannenbaum wants ducks in a row before draft

BY TOM ROCK

Newsday Staff Writer

Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum has a combination of cash, clout and college seniors with which to assemble the 2007 roster. "Once we are done with the critical analysis of our team, Eric [Mangini] and I will assemble our lists of 'musts and needs,'" he said yesterday. "We will pursue those 'musts and needs' as soon as the offseason begins, be it offense, defense or special teams."

Tannenbaum, who has almost $30 million of space under the salary cap, wants to have the roster set as much as he can before the April draft; he has a first-round pick, two in the second, and third-, fifth- and sixth-rounders.

"I don't want to go into the draft saying, 'We have to get X or Y,' because based on history what I have learned is that is when mistakes can be made," he said. "I would like to have as few moving parts as possible ... because then we can capitalize on opportunities if they are presented and take what is best value."

That likely means contract extensions for wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery and linebacker Victor Hobson, who can be free agents after the 2007 season, and decisions on players such as wide receiver Justin McCareins, running backs Derrick Blaylock and Kevan Barlow and linebacker Eric Barton.

Among other significant items brought up during Tannenbaum's season wrapup:

The Jets believe they have flexibility with nose tackle Dewayne Robertson, meaning he could play over center or at end. Tannenbaum said he was disappointed with the production of defensive end Kimo von Oelhoffen but praised his contributions in "intangibles."

The Jets likely will continue the running back-by-committee approach, but the personnel will surely change, and they like Leon Washington in that system.

After making the playoffs, Mangini might be in line for a raise and an extension (the Jets did that with Herman Edwards after his first season).

 

[Chase Stuart]

Mangini loves the RBBC concept.

That's part of the reason I'm downgrading TJones for next year. He won't get as much work as he did in Chicago.

I wouldn't be so quick to go with that. I don't think we have lots of data to support that theory. All we know is that when Kevan Barlow is your RB1, Mangini/Schottenheimer like to use RBBC. When LT is your RB1, Schottenheimer doesn't like to use RBBC. Mangini wasn't part of the offense in NE obviously, but he's from the Belichick/Parcells tree. While Belichick hasn't had many talented backs, Dillon averaged over 100 rushing yards per game in NE, and Parcells got the reputation for running his RBs into the ground. Once again, it's not telling us much. The Jets didn't have a stud RB last year. I don't think Thomas Jones qualifies as a stud RB, but he might be studly enough. I think Leon Washington is very good, so he should get carries regardless. But I don't see any reason to think Mangini will be a RBBC coach.

Granted this is pre-Thomas Jones trade, but:RBBC for NYJ

Tannenbaum wants ducks in a row before draft

BY TOM ROCK

Newsday Staff Writer

Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum has a combination of cash, clout and college seniors with which to assemble the 2007 roster. "Once we are done with the critical analysis of our team, Eric [Mangini] and I will assemble our lists of 'musts and needs,'" he said yesterday. "We will pursue those 'musts and needs' as soon as the offseason begins, be it offense, defense or special teams."

Tannenbaum, who has almost $30 million of space under the salary cap, wants to have the roster set as much as he can before the April draft; he has a first-round pick, two in the second, and third-, fifth- and sixth-rounders.

"I don't want to go into the draft saying, 'We have to get X or Y,' because based on history what I have learned is that is when mistakes can be made," he said. "I would like to have as few moving parts as possible ... because then we can capitalize on opportunities if they are presented and take what is best value."

That likely means contract extensions for wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery and linebacker Victor Hobson, who can be free agents after the 2007 season, and decisions on players such as wide receiver Justin McCareins, running backs Derrick Blaylock and Kevan Barlow and linebacker Eric Barton.

Among other significant items brought up during Tannenbaum's season wrapup:

The Jets believe they have flexibility with nose tackle Dewayne Robertson, meaning he could play over center or at end. Tannenbaum said he was disappointed with the production of defensive end Kimo von Oelhoffen but praised his contributions in "intangibles."

The Jets likely will continue the running back-by-committee approach, but the personnel will surely change, and they like Leon Washington in that system.

After making the playoffs, Mangini might be in line for a raise and an extension (the Jets did that with Herman Edwards after his first season).

1. That's an article about Mike Tannenbaum.2. Mike Tannenbaum isn't quoted as saying anything; that's the author's opinion.

3. Anything Tannenbaum and Mangini say should be ignored, anyway. Mangini is worse than Belichick when it comes to talking to the media.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Chase GB, I'll defer to your expertise here on the Jets for now. I'll take it under advisement as we roll into training camp.

Let us know if you think that Leon or Houston are getting more than their allotted workload.

 

[greeklightnin]

Cadillac Williams had 225 carries out of a team total 404 rush attempts. He predominantly gets replaced at the goalline by Altott and 3rd downs by Pittman.

Fantasy trader, since neither of these cogs have left, why havent you listed this as a RBBC?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase GB, I'll defer to your expertise here on the Jets for now. I'll take it under advisement as we roll into training camp.Let us know if you think that Leon or Houston are getting more than their allotted workload.

I don't think we'll ever know much. I can't remember exactly when it was, but before one of the games in the middle of the season Mangini was asked something like "is player X going to start this week?" Mangini's response was "we don't have any of our 22 starters declared yet."Remember, the depth chart last year was listed alphabetically at the open of TC.FWIW, I think Leon will get a good number of carries. I was just saying I don't think Mangini is a RBBC guy. I think he's pretty flexible; the Jets are just in a situation where they have one of the best change of pace RB2s in the league, and a RB1 that for whatever reason hasn't been labelled a workhorse back. I'm curious to see what sort of shape all three runners are in once July rolls around.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Cadillac Williams had 225 carries out of a team total 404 rush attempts. He predominantly gets replaced at the goalline by Altott and 3rd downs by Pittman. Fantasy trader, since neither of these cogs have left, why havent you listed this as a RBBC?

Good eye Greek,Tampa Bay would have fit my RBBC criteria, had I made it the primay runner getting less than a ratio of 3:1 attempts vs. all other team rushing attempts combined - and so would have many other teams. I just compared the primary runner to the next most rushing attempts by another RB (Alstott - 60). Plus Caddy DNP weeks 16-17 which factors in as well.

 

[greeklightnin]

Perhaps you should adjust that criteria.

Caddie essentially is only the 1st and 2nd down guy, with little chance of getting the money carries at the goalline. In PPR, he's brutal as well b/c of Pittman. He has 2 specialists cannibalizing his stats. Thats RRBC to me.

I know you dont adjust for injuries in your theory, but him missin games every season is a trend that has continued since his college days.

 

[Family Matters]

It's nice to see the level of detail and thought FantasyTrader put into his 3 part series on RBBC. While his conclusions are fairly well spot on, I'm not sure the concern about is this being a trend is so much an issue. It's an anlysis of what's happening now and that's the most important thing. Looking at last year and projecting this coming year is what most of care about. Understanding a team's or coaches philosophy is important but I'm not so sure the induvidual was fairly evaluated.

If you want to know the why's you should incorpprate team needs and available talent into the equation. Supply and demand will always drive the draft and free agent market. Right now there are a lot of 2nd tier backs in the market. Guys that help teams but are not able to carry the load on their own. Primier backs are still in rare supply, high demand. While supply and demand are always cyclical, premier backs are always few and far between. The last factor in why things happen, which you already identified are injuries. Some impact seasons and some just a few games. You did a great job of identifying which.

What is not a trend is RBBC. There is no clear evidence (except for a few coaches like Reid) that actually intend and desire to be RBBC. They do so because they do not have a 1 back. A guy like LT, LJ or Jackson that can carry the load for them. Or they do so because of injuries.

As you pointed out in your team analysis, these are focusing on where the attempts go. Who gets the lions share if you will. Now a Part IV is needed. This the talent evaluation part. This is where we decide who's the best based on talent and touches. I would like to see your thoughts on that as well. But I would suggest waiting until the draft is over so you can incorporate the rookies into the equation. I like to use the 3 keys to drafting a fantasy player:

1. Talent. Self explanatory.

2. Opportunity. Will he get the touches. Do the coaches plan to make him the man?

3. Motivation. Is this player interested in being good? Is character going to interfer?

Part V should breakdown the redraft v dynasty rankings. They will change the rankings depending on all the stuff you listed above. For example, Norwood will ranks much higher in dynasty then redraft. Where those rankings fall will complete the anaysis.

Again, nice job and I encourage you do follow up on this. This is good work.

 

[FantasyTrader]

It's nice to see the level of detail and thought FantasyTrader put into his 3 part series on RBBC. While his conclusions are fairly well spot on, I'm not sure the concern about is this being a trend is so much an issue. It's an anlysis of what's happening now and that's the most important thing. Looking at last year and projecting this coming year is what most of care about. Understanding a team's or coaches philosophy is important but I'm not so sure the induvidual was fairly evaluated.If you want to know the why's you should incorpprate team needs and available talent into the equation. Supply and demand will always drive the draft and free agent market. Right now there are a lot of 2nd tier backs in the market. Guys that help teams but are not able to carry the load on their own. Primier backs are still in rare supply, high demand. While supply and demand are always cyclical, premier backs are always few and far between. The last factor in why things happen, which you already identified are injuries. Some impact seasons and some just a few games. You did a great job of identifying which.What is not a trend is RBBC. There is no clear evidence (except for a few coaches like Reid) that actually intend and desire to be RBBC. They do so because they do not have a 1 back. A guy like LT, LJ or Jackson that can carry the load for them. Or they do so because of injuries.As you pointed out in your team analysis, these are focusing on where the attempts go. Who gets the lions share if you will. Now a Part IV is needed. This the talent evaluation part. This is where we decide who's the best based on talent and touches. I would like to see your thoughts on that as well. But I would suggest waiting until the draft is over so you can incorporate the rookies into the equation. I like to use the 3 keys to drafting a fantasy player:1. Talent. Self explanatory.2. Opportunity. Will he get the touches. Do the coaches plan to make him the man?3. Motivation. Is this player interested in being good? Is character going to interfer?Part V should breakdown the redraft v dynasty rankings. They will change the rankings depending on all the stuff you listed above. For example, Norwood will ranks much higher in dynasty then redraft. Where those rankings fall will complete the anaysis.Again, nice job and I encourage you do follow up on this. This is good work.

Thanks Family Matters.I'll definitely plan on a part IV post draft. Maybe I can go 3 deep for every team and answer the Talent/Opportunity/Motivation factors. What I'm concerned about is attempting to pinpoint "motivation". That's such a subjective thing that can change in a hurry based on real-life factors that are impossible to calculate. In the end, these are human beings with lives and families and sick grandmothers and dope deals. But talent and opportnity, that would be easy enough.I think the one thing I've taken from doing this analysis is that FAR fewer teams than I suspected are actively LOOKING for a 1 & 1A backfield. Like - almost none. Feel free to disagree with me all you want on this pont - but it cannot just be COINCIDENCE that all but one of the split backfield's I identified involved a rookie or 2nd year player (and one of the 2nd year players, (Benson), is now by himself and the other (Barber) might be given a workhorse role before all is said and done this off season. The fact that such YOUNG runners were involved in all of the committees is a huge tell IMO.For instance - name me all of the 1 - 1A backfields that have survived for more than 2 years in the last 6-7 years? Sure - part of why it's rare is probably due to the fact that you have to spend more than you want to as a francise on a QUALITY 1 - 1A scenario, but I believe it more has to do with grooming the young runner for a workhorse role. If I'm right about this - we are SERIOUSLY undervaluing M.J.D., Bush, Norwood and LenDale White among others for THIS YEAR. Many coaches are saying all the right things, but in the end - these 2nd year men will NOT be involved in RBBC and all the other noise we're hearing through the off season is just coach-speak. We'll see though - it'll be interesting to see how these play out. God, I wish I had gone back 3-4 years through the stats.

 

[Family Matters]

It's nice to see the level of detail and thought FantasyTrader put into his 3 part series on RBBC. While his conclusions are fairly well spot on, I'm not sure the concern about is this being a trend is so much an issue. It's an anlysis of what's happening now and that's the most important thing. Looking at last year and projecting this coming year is what most of care about. Understanding a team's or coaches philosophy is important but I'm not so sure the induvidual was fairly evaluated.If you want to know the why's you should incorpprate team needs and available talent into the equation. Supply and demand will always drive the draft and free agent market. Right now there are a lot of 2nd tier backs in the market. Guys that help teams but are not able to carry the load on their own. Primier backs are still in rare supply, high demand. While supply and demand are always cyclical, premier backs are always few and far between. The last factor in why things happen, which you already identified are injuries. Some impact seasons and some just a few games. You did a great job of identifying which.What is not a trend is RBBC. There is no clear evidence (except for a few coaches like Reid) that actually intend and desire to be RBBC. They do so because they do not have a 1 back. A guy like LT, LJ or Jackson that can carry the load for them. Or they do so because of injuries.As you pointed out in your team analysis, these are focusing on where the attempts go. Who gets the lions share if you will. Now a Part IV is needed. This the talent evaluation part. This is where we decide who's the best based on talent and touches. I would like to see your thoughts on that as well. But I would suggest waiting until the draft is over so you can incorporate the rookies into the equation. I like to use the 3 keys to drafting a fantasy player:1. Talent. Self explanatory.2. Opportunity. Will he get the touches. Do the coaches plan to make him the man?3. Motivation. Is this player interested in being good? Is character going to interfer?Part V should breakdown the redraft v dynasty rankings. They will change the rankings depending on all the stuff you listed above. For example, Norwood will ranks much higher in dynasty then redraft. Where those rankings fall will complete the anaysis.Again, nice job and I encourage you do follow up on this. This is good work.

Thanks Family Matters.I'll definitely plan on a part IV post draft. Maybe I can go 3 deep for every team and answer the Talent/Opportunity/Motivation factors. What I'm concerned about is attempting to pinpoint "motivation". That's such a subjective thing that can change in a hurry based on real-life factors that are impossible to calculate. In the end, these are human beings with lives and families and sick grandmothers and dope deals. But talent and opportnity, that would be easy enough.I think the one thing I've taken from doing this analysis is that FAR fewer teams than I suspected are actively LOOKING for a 1 & 1A backfield. Like - almost none. Feel free to disagree with me all you want on this pont - but it cannot just be COINCIDENCE that all but one of the split backfield's I identified involved a rookie or 2nd year player (and one of the 2nd year players, (Benson), is now by himself and the other (Barber) might be given a workhorse role before all is said and done this off season. The fact that such YOUNG runners were involved in all of the committees is a huge tell IMO.For instance - name me all of the 1 - 1A backfields that have survived for more than 2 years in the last 6-7 years? Sure - part of why it's rare is probably due to the fact that you have to spend more than you want to as a francise on a QUALITY 1 - 1A scenario, but I believe it more has to do with grooming the young runner for a workhorse role. If I'm right about this - we are SERIOUSLY undervaluing M.J.D., Bush, Norwood and LenDale White among others for THIS YEAR. Many coaches are saying all the right things, but in the end - these 2nd year men will NOT be involved in RBBC and all the other noise we're hearing through the off season is just coach-speak. We'll see though - it'll be interesting to see how these play out. God, I wish I had gone back 3-4 years through the stats.

From what I'm reading we are in total agreement. I think the young RB lends itself to RBBC when there is an aging vet present or one that's on the last year of his contract.As for the motivation factor, you are right when you say it's hard to quantify. It's not a stat. It's an observation from numerous reports and eyewitness accounts. Listening to the player and the coach and what they say about one another. It takes time to learn about a given player and where they are interms of these soft factors. But it makes this process more fun.