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Auction Strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Annyong
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
My strategy has evolved over time as I have learned my strengths and weaknesses as a manager and most importantly my opponents.I am very strong streaming and playing day to day matchups, so in my daily lineup league auction I go studs and scrubs. Rosters are relatively deep, so the talent on waivers isn't anything to write home about, but if you know what you're looking for you can hunt and pick good matchups. I think I added and dropped Will Venable more than a dozen times last year. My opponents are RP whores, so finding saves has become challenging so I commit more $ than I am comfortable ensuring 4 closers out of camp. I usually take money out of my SP and OF budget to do this, via streaming I have found it easier to find OF's day to day than INF's so I put a priority on INF's in the auction.Weekly leagues are a whole 'nother story. Being patient is a term commonly tossed around, but I have found it often has owners leaving money on the table at the end of the auction. Big no-no. I would rather be caught over bidding on a couple of players and maximizing my auction budget than be the guy at the end spending $20 on Markl Reynolds because he is the best bat left, and I can, then ending with $30 not spent.
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Its all about getting value. Dont buy any #1 players. Instead target and buy undervalued guys (bounce back guys like Howard, Longoria, JUpton, Morse, Cliff Lee, Wainwright, etc) or any of the young breakout guys you like. Avoid anyone coming off a career-type year (EE, Posey, Miggy, Beltre, Trout, Rios, Willingham, Dickey, etc) because you'll have to overpay. You should walk out of there feeling like you got a bargain at every slot.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
The last two years, our league has drafted in three stages: Slight inflation in the beginning, followed by high inflation through the middle (Mark Reynolds almost went for $30 last year) as people fight over the few remaining good hitters, then everything crashes and there are some good bargains to be had near the end.I think they key is to just stay flexible, and constantly adjust your budget as you go.
Eephus
Footballguy
Every auction is different and reading and reacting to the trends are key. If owners play the opening rounds cagey, there may be more value then. If multiple people overspend early, then the middle stages may be the place to make your move. I've seen end game bids where people got tremendous value because they were the only ones with funds available. But there have also been cases where the last decent available players get way overbid for.I think tiered rankings are more useful in an auction than in a draft
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Yep. Everyone becomes valuable at some point. He's dropping well past that point in most drafts. He was a shell of himself for less than half a season last year and still had 14HRs and 56RBIs. Currently undervalued, especially in OBP leagues.
oso diablo
Footballguy
1. Don't fall in love with a pitcher (ie, absolutely no bidding wars for a pitcher). Just get the next guy.2. I like to be able to bid $2 at the end-game when most teams are stuck in the dollar derby.3. Come in with a rough idea of your budget for pitching vs hitting. 2/3 for hitting is a decent rule of thumb, but it depends on your league settings. I personally like to target 70% to hitting.4. Like a poker game, mix it up with your bidding, so others don't get a read on you (where they know when to bid you up on a guy you want).
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
I hate leaving money on the table, but its nice to have the extra buck in the end-game. Last year I got both Fowler and Willingham for $2.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
x 100. Leaving at least $2 per remaining spot can be massively helpful.
oso diablo
Footballguy
i look at the LABR auction and Tout Wars (mostly because i know most of my league uses them as their baseline)if there's an auction-equivalent to ADP, i'd love to discover it.
LongDuckDong
Footballguy
ESPN has them, CBS has them, pretty much all the major sports sites with fantasy links have free draft guides with auction values.My biggest piece of advice would be to add and subtract at least 10 and probably 20 percent from every value provided as a guide for bidding purposes. 25 dollar player can be bid from 22-28 without being a "steal or "overpay" but of course it depends on a million things going on in your auction at that time. Point being, don't get locked onto a set dollar value for anyone. If your sheet says $13 and you get a guy for $11 that might be a great thing or it might not. Depends who has money, what your needs are, whats left in the player pool, etc. Best advice I can give you is try to make it so you spend your money before you get down the the last of what you need to bid on, whether its a C, a P, SB, SV, whatever. Desperation buying happens in every auction, you want to try to not be the guy doing it.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Our league has artificial "ceilings" with a lot of the bidding. For example, the top player will invariably go for $50, give or take. The top closer will be $16-17. Top pitchers around $35. ETc.I think I played our auction pretty well this year. Things follow an invariable pattern of slight inflation, massive inflation, and then values crash down. I attacked early, burning through almost $200 in the first 100 picks or so. I wanted to build an offense before things got Ike Davis for $24 crazy, and then get cheap pitching on the other end.One mistake I made was trying to backfill with some cheaper targets I liked when there was still a lot of money being thrown around. Matt Carpenter, who I wanted for 2B, I foolishly nominated and then I just didn't have the budget to get him when he went for $8. I ended up paying a bit too much for Rosario to catch as well.Do a mock or two, and have a tentative idea of "slots", e.g. $45, $35, $20, etc. And then adjust that on the fly. I inevitably end up spending over a slot, and then pull money from other slots to compensate.
oso diablo
Footballguy
12 team, NL-only, keeper league... here are my $2 players from last year:Kris MedlenChris VolstadDillon GeePaul Maholmfrom previous year:Sergio RomoAnibal Sanchezso, for me, it only seems to work on pitchers
oso diablo
Footballguy
anyone have strong views about the impact of the Astros move to the AL, with respect to AL-only or NL-only leagues and auction values?
my NL-only league moves from 75% (12/16) to 80% (12/15) penetration, so i'm trying to figure out how (and where) to adjust bid prices.
my NL-only league moves from 75% (12/16) to 80% (12/15) penetration, so i'm trying to figure out how (and where) to adjust bid prices.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Probably minimal, given that it's the Astros. Not many players of significance left.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I disagree with this.It's not all about value. It's about buying the right players who will give you the right stats to win your league. Value obviously plays a role in that, and it comes into play for all types of players depending on the auction. But, unfortunately, "value" isn't a category in most 5x5 leagues.
Buying some expensive players is a perfectly fine strategy, particularly if you are confident that you'll find really good players for super cheap late. In fact, that's a big part of the reason to work the bottom shelf for great value....so you can afford to splurge on a stud.
There's no one perfect strategy, but I know one thing that usually doesn't work very well.....Being way too cheap early, only to end up having to overpay for guys you don't really want later on.
As far as general principles I agree with:
-Be flexible to adjust to how the auction is going
-Using tiers to avoid unnecessary bidding wars.
-Strategic use of $2 bids.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I agree with this. Striking quickly and often in our auction allowed me to get Harper for $30, and several rounds later Freeman went for $28.'pollardsvision said:
The Ref
Footballguy
Tiers are very important but it's equally important to now why.... as a rule of thumb you never want to be bidding on the last player in a tier because thats when S can get out of hand.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I try to group players and then never get into bidding wars on the first or last player from that tier that is introduced. Didn't matter much in my draft this year, the top guys all went for more than what they were worth IMO (but you have to realize the market determines the price, even if it's ridiculous). I ended up with Jose Reyes instead of Fielder or Votto who I wanted, but I already have a lot of power (keeper league) so in the end this might actually work to my advantage (if, if, if Reyes can stay healthy). I will not overspend on guys and never panic, then I pick off very good players for way under their value later when everyone runs dry. Only player I overpaid for this year was Kenley Jansen at $9, but he is only one of two players that I told myself I had to have going in (Yonder Alonso was the other and I got him for $7). I got Grandy for $15, Markakis for $11 and Tim Hudson for $2. I did accidentally fall into Roy Halladay though, we'll see how that works out.Posey/Sal PerezRizzo/NapoliAltuveReyes/A. EscobarAlvarezBruceMarkakisEthierPaganGrandyCuddyerKeppingerAlonso-----------CainGallardoWainoFisterEstradaHudsonJansenJanssenRomoHalladay5X5 Avg league
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Statorama
gangster
Good stuff.I'd add in, don't be afraid to pay a little extra near the end to avoid getting a bottom tiered player. If you have Scutaro at the bottom of your tier 3 SS in an NL only draft, pay the extra or you'll end up with Reid Brignac or Justin Sellers. Remember, everyone else around the table sees that Scutaro is the last available decent choice at that point also.Keep track of the max bids around the table. Know how much the other guys can bid on any one player and what positions they need to fill.Keep your utility slot open as long as possible. Gives you flexibility to pounce on a bargain.Know your league rules. If there's no transaction limits or fees and no IP limits, don't bid that much on pitching. You'll be able to stream all year.'pollardsvision said:
I think the #1 thing to do is not be afraid to spend money early. Everyone gets nervous about bidding a couple of bucks extra on a stud or two and bows out only to spend those couple of bucks more on someone you want way less later on.
There will absolutely be several teams who have lots of money left in the middle->end stages who will bid up the mediocre players during that stage because they simply have to get players. Don't be those guys.
Most of the really good auction teams I've ever had have been when I got 2-3 first round guys, and then picked off good values for the rest of the auction.
There will absolutely be several teams who have lots of money left in the middle->end stages who will bid up the mediocre players during that stage because they simply have to get players. Don't be those guys.
Most of the really good auction teams I've ever had have been when I got 2-3 first round guys, and then picked off good values for the rest of the auction.
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