Every auction is different and reading and reacting to the trends are key. If owners play the opening rounds cagey, there may be more value then. If multiple people overspend early, then the middle stages may be the place to make your move. I've seen end game bids where people got tremendous value because they were the only ones with funds available. But there have also been cases where the last decent available players get way overbid for.I think tiered rankings are more useful in an auction than in a draftThe last two years, our league has drafted in three stages: Slight inflation in the beginning, followed by high inflation through the middle (Mark Reynolds almost went for $30 last year) as people fight over the few remaining good hitters, then everything crashes and there are some good bargains to be had near the end.I think they key is to just stay flexible, and constantly adjust your budget as you go.
Yep. Everyone becomes valuable at some point. He's dropping well past that point in most drafts. He was a shell of himself for less than half a season last year and still had 14HRs and 56RBIs. Currently undervalued, especially in OBP leagues.Howard?
2. I like to be able to bid $2 at the end-game when most teams are stuck in the dollar derby.
2. I like to be able to bid $2 at the end-game when most teams are stuck in the dollar derby.I hate leaving money on the table, but its nice to have the extra buck in the end-game. Last year I got both Fowler and Willingham for $2.
i look at the LABR auction and Tout Wars (mostly because i know most of my league uses them as their baseline)if there's an auction-equivalent to ADP, i'd love to discover it.where can i get some good Auction values to use as a bseline?
Our league has artificial "ceilings" with a lot of the bidding. For example, the top player will invariably go for $50, give or take. The top closer will be $16-17. Top pitchers around $35. ETc.I think I played our auction pretty well this year. Things follow an invariable pattern of slight inflation, massive inflation, and then values crash down. I attacked early, burning through almost $200 in the first 100 picks or so. I wanted to build an offense before things got Ike Davis for $24 crazy, and then get cheap pitching on the other end.One mistake I made was trying to backfill with some cheaper targets I liked when there was still a lot of money being thrown around. Matt Carpenter, who I wanted for 2B, I foolishly nominated and then I just didn't have the budget to get him when he went for $8. I ended up paying a bit too much for Rosario to catch as well.Do a mock or two, and have a tentative idea of "slots", e.g. $45, $35, $20, etc. And then adjust that on the fly. I inevitably end up spending over a slot, and then pull money from other slots to compensate.ESPN has them, CBS has them, pretty much all the major sports sites with fantasy links have free draft guides with auction values.My biggest piece of advice would be to add and subtract at least 10 and probably 20 percent from every value provided as a guide for bidding purposes. 25 dollar player can be bid from 22-28 without being a "steal or "overpay" but of course it depends on a million things going on in your auction at that time. Point being, don't get locked onto a set dollar value for anyone. If your sheet says $13 and you get a guy for $11 that might be a great thing or it might not. Depends who has money, what your needs are, whats left in the player pool, etc. Best advice I can give you is try to make it so you spend your money before you get down the the last of what you need to bid on, whether its a C, a P, SB, SV, whatever. Desperation buying happens in every auction, you want to try to not be the guy doing it.
12 team, NL-only, keeper league... here are my $2 players from last year:Kris MedlenChris VolstadDillon GeePaul Maholmfrom previous year:Sergio RomoAnibal Sanchezso, for me, it only seems to work on pitchers2. I like to be able to bid $2 at the end-game when most teams are stuck in the dollar derby.I hate leaving money on the table, but its nice to have the extra buck in the end-game. Last year I got both Fowler and Willingham for $2.
Probably minimal, given that it's the Astros. Not many players of significance left.anyone have strong views about the impact of the Astros move to the AL, with respect to AL-only or NL-only leagues and auction values?my NL-only league moves from 75% (12/16) to 80% (12/15) penetration, so i'm trying to figure out how (and where) to adjust bid prices.
I disagree with this.It's not all about value. It's about buying the right players who will give you the right stats to win your league. Value obviously plays a role in that, and it comes into play for all types of players depending on the auction. But, unfortunately, "value" isn't a category in most 5x5 leagues.Its all about getting value. Dont buy any #1 players. Instead target and buy undervalued guys (bounce back guys like Howard, Longoria, JUpton, Morse, Cliff Lee, Wainwright, etc) or any of the young breakout guys you like. Avoid anyone coming off a career-type year (EE, Posey, Miggy, Beltre, Trout, Rios, Willingham, Dickey, etc) because you'll have to overpay. You should walk out of there feeling like you got a bargain at every slot.
I agree with this. Striking quickly and often in our auction allowed me to get Harper for $30, and several rounds later Freeman went for $28.'pollardsvision said:There's no one perfect strategy, but I know one thing that usually doesn't work very well.....Being way too cheap early, only to end up having to overpay for guys you don't really want later on.
Tiers are very important but it's equally important to now why.... as a rule of thumb you never want to be bidding on the last player in a tier because thats when S can get out of hand.I agree with this. Striking quickly and often in our auction allowed me to get Harper for $30, and several rounds later Freeman went for $28.'pollardsvision said:There's no one perfect strategy, but I know one thing that usually doesn't work very well.....Being way too cheap early, only to end up having to overpay for guys you don't really want later on.
I try to group players and then never get into bidding wars on the first or last player from that tier that is introduced. Didn't matter much in my draft this year, the top guys all went for more than what they were worth IMO (but you have to realize the market determines the price, even if it's ridiculous). I ended up with Jose Reyes instead of Fielder or Votto who I wanted, but I already have a lot of power (keeper league) so in the end this might actually work to my advantage (if, if, if Reyes can stay healthy). I will not overspend on guys and never panic, then I pick off very good players for way under their value later when everyone runs dry. Only player I overpaid for this year was Kenley Jansen at $9, but he is only one of two players that I told myself I had to have going in (Yonder Alonso was the other and I got him for $7). I got Grandy for $15, Markakis for $11 and Tim Hudson for $2. I did accidentally fall into Roy Halladay though, we'll see how that works out.Posey/Sal PerezRizzo/NapoliAltuveReyes/A. EscobarAlvarezBruceMarkakisEthierPaganGrandyCuddyerKeppingerAlonso-----------CainGallardoWainoFisterEstradaHudsonJansenJanssenRomoHalladay5X5 Avg leagueTiers are very important but it's equally important to now why.... as a rule of thumb you never want to be bidding on the last player in a tier because thats when S can get out of hand.I agree with this. Striking quickly and often in our auction allowed me to get Harper for $30, and several rounds later Freeman went for $28.'pollardsvision said:There's no one perfect strategy, but I know one thing that usually doesn't work very well.....Being way too cheap early, only to end up having to overpay for guys you don't really want later on.
Good stuff.I'd add in, don't be afraid to pay a little extra near the end to avoid getting a bottom tiered player. If you have Scutaro at the bottom of your tier 3 SS in an NL only draft, pay the extra or you'll end up with Reid Brignac or Justin Sellers. Remember, everyone else around the table sees that Scutaro is the last available decent choice at that point also.Keep track of the max bids around the table. Know how much the other guys can bid on any one player and what positions they need to fill.Keep your utility slot open as long as possible. Gives you flexibility to pounce on a bargain.Know your league rules. If there's no transaction limits or fees and no IP limits, don't bid that much on pitching. You'll be able to stream all year.'pollardsvision said:As far as general principles I agree with:-Be flexible to adjust to how the auction is going-Using tiers to avoid unnecessary bidding wars. -Strategic use of $2 bids.