Auction Value for "Big 3" rising? (1 Viewer)

[RamMan]

First, hello to all. I'm new to this board as well as a first time suscriber to FBG (spent the last several years with anotiher service that shall remain nameless!). I'll try to prove myself worthy of SHARK status, but who knows? This seems like an extremely sharp board so I'm just glad to participate.

Anyhow, I'd appreciate feedback on how much of a premium the BIG 3 RB's should command this year. With question marks surrounding Tiki (can he duplicate last year/Jacobs vultering TD's), Portis (shoulder), Rudi (Palmer/SOS), Ronnie Brown (can he carry full season load), Caddy (breaks down?), Westbrook (foot/injuries), Jordan (OL and horrid offense), etc., the only sure bets seem to be the BIG 3 and possibly SJax. I play in a pretty sharp 10-team, $200 auction league and we draft next week.

Under normal conditions, I would probably assign the following values for the BIG 3, Tiki, and SJax: LJ ($74=37% of total budget); LT ($70/35%); SA ($70/35%), Tiki ($55/27.5%); SJax ($49/24.5%). First, do you think the issues pointed out with the other RB's are valid and, if so, what sort of additional premium should I expect to pay for the BIG 3 and SJax this year?

Thanks...

 

[CalBear]

In a 10-team league, I'd expect those numbers to be about right, at least for the top 3; Tiki and SJax are more variable depending on the views of people in your league. The fact that there are three RBs rated in the same tier will keep the prices from going too high; once it starts getting above 35% of cap, some people will drop out of the auction thinking, "I'll just get one of the other two," and then the price of the first one will set the market for the other two. I would be surprised to see any of them go for 40% of cap.

 

[RamMan]

Thanks CalBear (I'm a BearBacker as well - looking forward to a great season by the way!).

I agree that the $ values I currently have them at are probably about right. However, when the auction starts and everyone realizes that their going to have question marks in their backfields unless they open their wallets for one of the BIG 3, I wouldn't be surprised to see some very agressive bids. I'm willing to bet that the first of the BIG 3 to go will be cheaper than than the next two, as the pressure will build to get one of them as the supply diminishes. I normaly don't go for a top 3 RB (I usually opt more for a #5 along with a #8 or something like that), but this year I may end up making a big run at one of these guys due to the uncertainty with the others.

 

[bbuster]

In my 10 team auction league last year, the top 3 went for much higher than you are projecting. I have to admit, I was actually thinking they would go a little closer to what you are thinking. Last year: LT 45%

SA 43% and Priest 40%. I have no idea what to expect this year. I'm assuming they will be similar to last year.

 

[weiner]

I have run a $100 auction league for years and I cannot go by any sites published auction figures. Last year in our league, Tomlinson went for $55, Alexander $54 and Priest for $51. I agree with the issues you have pointed out with the other RBs, LJ will go for over $60 and LT and SA will be mid $50's anyway.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

You have to always remember that an auction is a place where the price is determined by the market. You can project all day long and be shuked on draft day when a guy you thought would go for $11, goes for $4 or $18. I've played in several over the past few years and I try to establish a baseline for prices and then stick to them whenever possible. Biggest thing about an auction is to never target any one player because you will likely overpay. It's always good to group guys three or four at a time and target whichever the market likes the least.

OBTW in my big $ league last year LT2 went for 38%, SA for 37%, and Holmes for 35%. All but two guys are returning from a year ago but as I've found out before, just those two new guys can shift prices. It's scary and fun and that is why the auction format rules the roost IMO.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I have run a $100 auction league for years and I cannot go by any sites published auction figures. Last year in our league, Tomlinson went for $55, Alexander $54 and Priest for $51. I agree with the issues you have pointed out with the other RBs, LJ will go for over $60 and LT and SA will be mid $50's anyway.

This illustrates my point about markets. In this market LT2 goes for $55 in mine he goes for $38. That's why auctions are a ##### to predict.

 

[Defending Champs]

Or auction is $150.

LT went for $73, just under 50% of the owners cap. That is the second year in a row that he went for a hair under 50%.

Alexander went for $66 last year and is expected to hit the $70 mark this year.

The Big boys commonly go for some 40-50% of the cap space while other owners will search out the bargains and breakouts hoping to not have to pay that much.

 

[RamMan]

I have run a $100 auction league for years and I cannot go by any sites published auction figures. Last year in our league, Tomlinson went for $55, Alexander $54 and Priest for $51. I agree with the issues you have pointed out with the other RBs, LJ will go for over $60 and LT and SA will be mid $50's anyway.

Or auction is $150.LT went for $73, just under 50% of the owners cap. That is the second year in a row that he went for a hair under 50%.Alexander went for $66 last year and is expected to hit the $70 mark this year.The Big boys commonly go for some 40-50% of the cap space while other owners will search out the bargains and breakouts hoping to not have to pay that much.

Thanks for the input everyone. And, BTW I agree that the auctions leagues rule!!I'm wondering in what size leagues these higher prices were paid. Of course, the more teams there are (12, 14 , 16) the higher the prices will be for the studs (supply & demand). I play in a 10 team league, so the RB studs seem to generally go for 35% - 38% in years past. I'm just wondering if they'll go for higher prices this year in particular being that there are so many question marks surrounding RB's 5 - 12 on the board. My guess is "yes" - maybe closer to the 40% range for a 10 team league.

 

[weiner]

Auctions definately RULE!!

I posted that in our $100 auction league, the stud RBs go for $50 ++ and this year LJ will go for 60 +++...this for your information is a 10 person league...I can only imagine what us RB starved owners would pay if it was a 12-14 team league????

 

[NFZ]

Auctions definately RULE!!I posted that in our $100 auction league, the stud RBs go for $50 ++ and this year LJ will go for 60 +++...this for your information is a 10 person league...I can only imagine what us RB starved owners would pay if it was a 12-14 team league????

14 person league with 1 keeper $200cap: LT - 108, SA - keeper, LJ - keeper, Tiki - 89, SJacks - 100 (some examples)

 

[glock]

Auctions definately RULE!!I posted that in our $100 auction league, the stud RBs go for $50 ++ and this year LJ will go for 60 +++...this for your information is a 10 person league...I can only imagine what us RB starved owners would pay if it was a 12-14 team league????

I've posted this a couple of times already in other auction threads, but it is so pertinant here that I must once again...In our 12 team, 15 position $200 auction keeper league we just had 12 of the top 15 RB's kept. We moved up to 12 owners from 10 this year, so the two noobies will have all $200 to play with. LT2 already went for $102 when we were at 10 teams. Supply dictating demand, it will be interesting to see how much the likes of LT2, Parker and Edge will be going for this weekend. I see LT2 easily topping the $102 mark and bigger than normal cash being thrown at Parker and Edge. Some teams will have to go QB and WR heavy.I can't wait. (LJ/$11)

 

[beto]

I only had one auction this year, but it was for an IDP dynasty type league. I was astonished on how high the big 3 went.

 

[Warpig]

I'm in a 12 team auction league with a $100 cap.

I'm assuming LJ will go for $60 (possibly more), LT ($45+) , and SA for the same as LT. I wouldn't be surprised if they all 3 go for over $50!

Last year LT and SA both went for $55. Our league is a TD heavy league with 1 pt for every 25 yds rush/rec and 50 yds pass.

If you want any of the big 3 you gotta be prepared to spend.

Now with Portis's shoulder injury and their attempts to lighten his load by RBBC muddying up the waters...I think I'll kick back and get two of the 2nd tier guys and get me a solid roster all around.

 

[BigRed]

I have run a $100 auction league for years and I cannot go by any sites published auction figures. Last year in our league, Tomlinson went for $55, Alexander $54 and Priest for $51. I agree with the issues you have pointed out with the other RBs, LJ will go for over $60 and LT and SA will be mid $50's anyway.

This illustrates my point about markets. In this market LT2 goes for $55 in mine he goes for $38. That's why auctions are a ##### to predict.

Gotta know your owners. Most in my league tends to go more for balance so I'll be surprised if anyone goes much if at all over $35. And lmao @ over 50% for any one guy.

 

[The Ref]

Well - Look at it this way. I think the top three are going for huge money, and it may not be enough.

LT2, LJ and SA All Studs, all had huge ##'s LY, all in there prime.

Ports - Broken

Tiki - Old, and may get Vultured

Jordan - Not going to get receptions, and O-line stinks

Jackson - some have concerns, as do I

Brown - Durability

Caddy - Durability

Rudi - good pick, just not in PPR.

Edge - Zona line stinks

Westy - Hurt already

I'm going into my auction and If I can't get Alexander (LJ and LT are kept) then I am going WR and not looking back. I would rather spend money on two of Holt/Boldin/Harrison and get someone like a Dunn. then have two lesser WR and one of the 4-12 backs.

But thats just me.

 

[Defending Champs]

I have run a $100 auction league for years and I cannot go by any sites published auction figures. Last year in our league, Tomlinson went for $55, Alexander $54 and Priest for $51. I agree with the issues you have pointed out with the other RBs, LJ will go for over $60 and LT and SA will be mid $50's anyway.

Or auction is $150.LT went for $73, just under 50% of the owners cap. That is the second year in a row that he went for a hair under 50%.Alexander went for $66 last year and is expected to hit the $70 mark this year.The Big boys commonly go for some 40-50% of the cap space while other owners will search out the bargains and breakouts hoping to not have to pay that much.

Thanks for the input everyone. And, BTW I agree that the auctions leagues rule!!I'm wondering in what size leagues these higher prices were paid. Of course, the more teams there are (12, 14 , 16) the higher the prices will be for the studs (supply & demand). I play in a 10 team league, so the RB studs seem to generally go for 35% - 38% in years past. I'm just wondering if they'll go for higher prices this year in particular being that there are so many question marks surrounding RB's 5 - 12 on the board. My guess is "yes" - maybe closer to the 40% range for a 10 team league.

Ours is a 12 Man league.

 

[weiner]

I will probably end up with 1 of the Big 3. I had Emmitt in his glory years, Marshall in his peak, Priest...etc. I spend the $$$ at the beginning on the #1 rated RB and wait until everyone else does there spending and I have control of the board (more $$$ than anyone else). It is then that you make your team by getting the bargains on lower tier WRs and Rbs. I almost always have used this strategy and have been very successful, even though my WRs seldom pan out..Of course if your stud gets injured, you will probably be in for a long season but its the chance I take.

Of course I ventured from my strategy last year and won the title..RB were McGahee $30, L jordan $19 and K Jones at $19 but got S Smith for $8 and Hines Ward for $1....he was 1 of the last WRs to be thrown out so YES you can win with different strategies which is the beauty of an auction!!

 

[Defending Champs]

The fact that you got S Smith for $8 and Hines Ward for a Buck is just silly. It's like you are playing with Monoply Money.

 

[Warpig]

The fact that you got S Smith for $8 and Hines Ward for a Buck is just silly. It's like you are playing with Monoply Money.

Thus the beauty of auction!

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

I play in a 16 team auction league with a $260 cap (13 players), and I expect LJ and LT to both be around $135. I expect Alexander to be around $130, and then someone like Tiki to be around $115. my league goes after the studs full-throttle.