Average Draft Position (1 Viewer)

[aburt19]

Ii see so many references to ADP when referring to when a player is available in the draft. I'm am coming more and more to the opinion that the ADP is

of very little value when drafting in a 12 team league. Mock Draft Central is often used when referring to the draft position of a player. But most of what

they refer to as "performance" drafts on that site are 10 team drafts. That has a huge effect on the draft positions of players. A QB that would normally

be the 9th-12th QB drafted goes much later in a 10 team league than in a 12 team league. The 9th QB drafted in a 10 teamer is for an owner who waits on

his QB. In a 12 team league that QB would probably be drafted much earlier based on someone not wanting to get stuck with the bottom of the barrel.

The 11th and 12th QB drafted would be backups in a 10 team league, but would be drafted higher in a 12 team league. The same problems are there for

the other positions.

You can see the differences in the draft positions for QB shown for CBS Sportline and ESPN drafts compared to MDC. Part of that is caused by fact that owners

may not be quite as experienced in those league. But I think that it is affected much more by the fact that more CBS and ESPN drafts are private 12 teams leagues.

This affects things such as QBBC, RB2BC, etc. In the QBBC article, it mentions that M. Schaub ADP is 79, which is right where MDC has him. But in CBS

leagues he's going 58 and in ESPN leagues, he's going 63. Counting on getting Schaub in the late sixth round figuring that you are safe in getting him there

and then having him drafted in the late 5th/early 6th can really mess up a draft without a backup plan. Taking Schaub in the 5th round almost defeats the

purpose of the QBBC.

 

[mydixie]

When using ADP be sure that you set filters so you match league size, scoring format to include PPR/non-PPR at a minimum, league type (keeper/redraft), and filter to get the most recent drafts as possible while having 20 drafts as minimum included.

After doing this you will still see owners jump on players way too early and skew the ADP list but, you can prepare a short list for each pick that will allow flexibilty and still get most of the players you are targeting.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

When using ADP be sure that you set filters so you match league size, scoring format to include PPR/non-PPR at a minimum, league type (keeper/redraft), and filter to get the most recent drafts as possible while having 20 drafts as minimum included.After doing this you will still see owners jump on players way too early and skew the ADP list but, you can prepare a short list for each pick that will allow flexibilty and still get most of the players you are targeting.

Yes. And make sure to only use REAL DRAFTS. This means you have to wait until the 2nd week of August to get decent results, but the mocks tend to throw the results off enough that I choose to ignore them. 2nd ...if you want to make the extra effort, map what your league has done the last 2-3 years. I take the ADP by position and then apply it by how our league tends to draft (slightly heavier on RBs and QBs early than the usual ADP). I take a look and adjust a bit from a gut level and go with that. For instance ...without fail, a couple of the "hot" rookie-type (also new team guys) goes at least a round before their ADP. Our guys read a bit and look for the easy sneaky pick. Drafting without some considerable thought to ADP and how it applies to your league will definitely leave you at a disadvantage.

 

[jdgsatx]

I think that so many people focus on drafting based on whatever the popular trend is at the time. I did a 14 team redraft over the weekend and focused mostly on ADP and I must say.. I was pretty dissapointed in the results. ADP focuses too much on last years stats and doesnt really do as good a job in projecting the real value of a player. Does it really matter where a guy is getting drafted? Am I really reaching for Reggie Wayne with pick 2.01 after I just grabbed Steve Slaton with 1.14?

 

[Ack88]

ADP is a guideline. Use it as a part of your research but don't overvalue it's effectiveness.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Very useful if you do your own projections, you get to see who you can wait on.

 

[PC Load Letter]

Which is the best site to use with custom settings? I play in two leagues that use 6pt TDs and most of the sites I've seen rely on the 4pt format.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I think that so many people focus on drafting based on whatever the popular trend is at the time. I did a 14 team redraft over the weekend and focused mostly on ADP and I must say.. I was pretty dissapointed in the results. ADP focuses too much on last years stats and doesnt really do as good a job in projecting the real value of a player. Does it really matter where a guy is getting drafted? Am I really reaching for Reggie Wayne with pick 2.01 after I just grabbed Steve Slaton with 1.14?

Maybe I am out to lunch, but ADP=average draft position. I think you are talking about VBD.Its only a reach if you think that player will still be available at your next turn.

I personally think that ADP is the most useful tool that you can use. If you can get a good list, you formulate a decent plan of attack before the draft starts. Without it, I am not sure how you plan to maximize value.

 

[davearm]

When using ADP be sure that you set filters so you match league size, scoring format to include PPR/non-PPR at a minimum, league type (keeper/redraft), and filter to get the most recent drafts as possible while having 20 drafts as minimum included.After doing this you will still see owners jump on players way too early and skew the ADP list but, you can prepare a short list for each pick that will allow flexibilty and still get most of the players you are targeting.

Yes. And make sure to only use REAL DRAFTS. This means you have to wait until the 2nd week of August to get decent results, but the mocks tend to throw the results off enough that I choose to ignore them. 2nd ...if you want to make the extra effort, map what your league has done the last 2-3 years. I take the ADP by position and then apply it by how our league tends to draft (slightly heavier on RBs and QBs early than the usual ADP). I take a look and adjust a bit from a gut level and go with that. For instance ...without fail, a couple of the "hot" rookie-type (also new team guys) goes at least a round before their ADP. Our guys read a bit and look for the easy sneaky pick. Drafting without some considerable thought to ADP and how it applies to your league will definitely leave you at a disadvantage.

Here's how I use ADP.I use my own league's draft history to determine how many players from each position will go in each round. This takes care of the league tendency element you mentioned.Then I use ADP to create a list of player rankings within each position. This reflects how I expect the rest of my league will value/rank the players in the draft pool, since ADP represents something of a consensus ranking.So for instance in round 1, history tells me that in my main league there will be 10 RBs, 1 QB, and 1 WR selected. ADP tells me the consensus on who the FF world thinks the 10 best RBs, 1 best QB, and 1 best WR are, so I assume those 12 players are drafted in the first round. Then overall ADP allows me to project the exact order the 12 guys will come off the board.Repeat for as many rounds as you draft, and you've got a pretty good blueprint for how your league's draft can be expected to unfold. I use that info to gauge who from my personal list of draft target I'd need to reach for to get, and who I can wait on. Seems to work fairly well -- every year my team comes out looking just about exactly how I thought it would based on my predraft prep.