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Avoid players 30 years or older . . . (1 Viewer)

David Yudkin

David Yudkin

Footballguy
There has long been a theory pervading fantasy football that players that hit the big three oh are best left for other owners to draft. This got me wondering if this is fact or fiction and whether heartfelt concerns are warranted.

In 2005 . . .

QB: 6 of the top 12 were 30 or older

RB: 4 of the top 24 were 30 or older

WR: 14 of the top 36 were 30 or older

TE: 0 of the top 12 were 30 or older

In 2004 . . .

QB: 3 of the top 12 were 30 or older

RB: 5 of the top 24 were 30 or older

WR: 8 of the top 36 were 30 or older

TE: 0 of the top 12 were 30 or older

In 2003 . . .

QB: 6 of the top 12 were 30 or older

RB: 4 of the top 24 were 30 or older

WR: 11 of the top 36 were 30 or older

TE: 3 of the top 12 were 30 or older

I would have thought that seasoned tight ends would have fared better, but then again there are not that many older tight ends playing right now.

It does appear that being a veteran probably HELPS QB and WR. Yet I still see people hoarding young receivers with potential in lieu of proven wideouts that invariably are available a lot later with much better production.

Some of the concern for 30 year old running backs seems justified, but it seems that in recent seasons that there are still 4 or 5 that are fantasy worthy from year to year.

How do other people feel about the age issue and the proverbial chance that players will "hit the wall" at the magic age of 30?

 
this doesn't pertain to QBs, of course. I'd move it to about 32.

only special players don't fall at 32, Curtis Emmitt Rice etc

 
There has long been a theory pervading fantasy football that players that hit the big three oh are best left for other owners to draft. This got me wondering if this is fact or fiction and whether heartfelt concerns are warranted.

In 2005 . . .

QB: 6 of the top 12 were 30 or older

RB: 4 of the top 24 were 30 or older

WR: 14 of the top 36 were 30 or older

TE: 0 of the top 12 were 30 or older

In 2004 . . .

QB: 3 of the top 12 were 30 or older

RB: 5 of the top 24 were 30 or older

WR: 8 of the top 36 were 30 or older

TE: 0 of the top 12 were 30 or older

In 2003 . . .

QB: 6 of the top 12 were 30 or older

RB: 4 of the top 24 were 30 or older

WR: 11 of the top 36 were 30 or older

TE: 3 of the top 12 were 30 or older

I would have thought that seasoned tight ends would have fared better, but then again there are not that many older tight ends playing right now.

It does appear that being a veteran probably HELPS QB and WR. Yet I still see people hoarding young receivers with potential in lieu of proven wideouts that invariably are available a lot later with much better production.

Some of the concern for 30 year old running backs seems justified, but it seems that in recent seasons that there are still 4 or 5 that are fantasy worthy from year to year.

How do other people feel about the age issue and the proverbial chance that players will "hit the wall" at the magic age of 30?
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:goodposting: Good job as always. :thumbup:

QB's on my team. All of them are over 30.

RB's on my team. 4 out of 10 are over 30.

WR's on my team. 3 out of 5 are over 30.

I guess I should chance my team name to 'The over the Hill Gang'.

So I'm one of the few who does not follow this rule.

It is a Dynasty League. 12 teams TE, kicker, and Def.

I have Gates as my TE. :popcorn:

 
There is no wall at 30. Your research helps to prove this. Taking it one step further, it would be interesting to research all 30 and over starters in the NFL at the listed positions (QB, RB, WR) to find what percentage of over 30 NFL starters rank in the top (12,24,36) of those positions. I would disregard the TE position due to the fact that the position has changed tremendously in the past 8-10 years. Now teams are looking for TE's with NBA type skills more than ever...that position has changed and is still evolving.
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200525 QB had 300+ passing attempts12 QB were 30+ with 6 in the Top 12 (50% of the data set)13 QB were up to age 29 with 6 in the Top 12 (46% of the data set)35 RB had at least 100 carries7 RB were 30+ with 4 in the Top 24 (57% of the data set)28 RB were up to age 29 with 20 in the Top 24 (71% of the data set)57 WR had at least 40 receptions17 WR were 30+ with 14 in the Top 36 (82% of the data set)40 WR were up to age 29 with 22 in the Top 36 (55% of the data set)30+ year old WR are money.
 
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Good posting.

I would assume the positions (most notably, RB's and LB's) with the greatest amount of "full-speed collisions" are affected more by the magical number of 30. Sure...you'll have your Emmitt Smiths, Donnie Edwards etc, but the abuse will ultimately take it's toll.

Players like WR's, QB's, CB's etc may get hit 5-10x per game while LB's are RB's are whacked anywhere from 25-35x per game. A direct coorelation much exist.

 
With every thread like this, Tiki Barber drops a few more spots. Keep up the good work, fellas! :thumbup:

 
With every thread like this, Tiki Barber drops a few more spots. Keep up the good work, fellas! :thumbup:
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In two weeks He'll be 31 years old.By game 5, Eli will be crying there's no running game.

Or is it the line can't block? :lmao:

 
I have only ever seen it applied it to RBs. I had no idea there was the idea that 30+ year olds at other positions were avoided in redraft leagues. Not sure where you got that idea.

There have always been plenty of 30+ QBs, WRs, and TEs doing just fine. I consider the prime age of a WR or TE 28-32. Most QBs dont even become fantasy factors til the latter 20s and have long careers.

Since Sharpe retired, there havent been any older star TEs. Before that though top TEs were playing well in their early 30s. Guys like Sharpe, Wesley Walls, Todd Christianson, ect played well in their 30s. Problem is that there are very few TEs who have ever had the statistical quality of these guys. Rule changes and athletic advancement has increased the number of quality fantasy TEs just in the last 3 years. Before that, times were different. Few TEs even scored enough fantasy points to even matter.

 
Do running backs really tail off at the age of thirty or do teams simply go along with that perception and thus replace othewise reliable, albeit unflashy, starters?

 
Do running backs really tail off at the age of thirty or do teams simply go along with that perception and thus replace othewise reliable, albeit unflashy, starters?
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I think the tailing off has more to with the number of touches than their age. There I said it.Here are Yudkin's stats combined over the past 3 years

QB: 15 of 36 over the age of 30 = 41.7%

RB: 13 of 72 over the age of 30 = 18.1%

WR: 33 of 108 over the age of 30 = 30.6%

TE: 3 of 36 over ha ge of 30 = 8.3%

Clearly, the best bet for finding a player over 30 years of age who will finish in the Top 12, 24, or 36, respectively, is QB (2 of 5) followed by WR (3 of 10) and then RB (1 of 5).

 
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I have only ever seen it applied it to RBs. I had no idea there was the idea that 30+ year olds at other positions were avoided in redraft leagues. Not sure where you got that idea.

There have always been plenty of 30+ QBs, WRs, and TEs doing just fine. I consider the prime age of a WR or TE 28-32. Most QBs dont even become fantasy factors til the latter 20s and have long careers.

Since Sharpe retired, there havent been any older star TEs. Before that though top TEs were playing well in their early 30s. Guys like Sharpe, Wesley Walls, Todd Christianson, ect played well in their 30s. Problem is that there are very few TEs who have ever had the statistical quality of these guys. Rule changes and athletic advancement has increased the number of quality fantasy TEs just in the last 3 years. Before that, times were different. Few TEs even scored enough fantasy points to even matter.
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I agree. My rule of thumb regarding when I start 'avoiding' guys:QB & WR: 35

RB: 32

 
I agree. My rule of thumb regarding when I start 'avoiding' guys:QB & WR: 35RB: 32
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Since 1970 . . .- There have been 92 QB age 30+ that have scored 260+ fantasy points in a season (the total for the #12 QB last season)- There have been 67 RB age 30+ that have scored 140+ fnatasy points in a season (approximately the total for the #24 RB last season)- There have been 243 WR age 30+ that have scored 100+ fantasy points (approximately the total for the #36 WR last season)- There have been 42 TE age 30+ that have scored 75+ fantasy points (approximately the total for the #12 TE last season)When you up the ante age wise to 32 for RB but 35 at the other spots and leave the total points the same . . .QB - 21RB - 4WR - 22TE - 2
 
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