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Beat The Streak (1 Viewer)

Not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread, but if you go to the "Season Stats" tab, there is some interesting data on your individual picks.

 
'RnR said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread, but if you go to the "Season Stats" tab, there is some interesting data on your individual picks.
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6-9 last two days, 35-132 .265 for the season.29-123 .236 before last two days and that included 9-game streak. :X
 
'shuke said:
'Getzlaf15 said:
'RnR said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread, but if you go to the "Season Stats" tab, there is some interesting data on your individual picks.
Click to expand...
6-9 last two days, 35-132 .265 for the season.29-123 .236 before last two days and that included 9-game streak. :X
Click to expand...
That is horrid.
Click to expand...
48-158 now... .30419-35 .543 last eight :excited:at 8 now6/08/2011Troy Tulowitzki@3-for-46/07/2011Asdrubal Cabreravs.1-for-46/06/2011Ryan Braun@2-for-46/05/2011Josh Hamilton@0-for-06/04/2011Adrian Gonzalezvs.3-for-56/03/2011Billy Butlervs.3-for-46/02/2011Josh Hamilton@1-for-56/01/2011Erick Aybar@3-for-45/31/2011Jose Bautistavs.3-for-5
 
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up to 12.

Alex Gordon got a hit in the 9th on Saturday. :whoosh:

Adrian G HR'd in first AB Sunday.

27-51 during the streak.

 
Appears this thread has died, and only a few are still playing (many streaks ending at 3 with no selection so obviously the jumpstart pick is in play), so bumping up to drum up some more interest.

Overall leader at 37...how far will he go?

 
'Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Appears this thread has died, and only a few are still playing (many streaks ending at 3 with no selection so obviously the jumpstart pick is in play), so bumping up to drum up some more interest.Overall leader at 37...how far will he go?
Click to expand...
I forgot about the Baseball Forum entirely for awhile...Currently at an 11 game streak. 23 out of my last 25.Here is my cheat sheet:- Jose Reyes is .360 at home and also .360 against righties. Hits first on the team with the 6th best OBP. The mets have picked up the offense lately and Reyes has been more likely to get 5 or even 6 at bats a game than 4. However, his hits come in bunches (4 for 5 one night and 0-4 the next). I think this is just coincidence so I keep picking him. - Brett Gardner is .360 during day games (.236 at night). Hits first on the team with the #2 OBP. VERY likely to get 5 at bats if a righty is pitching. Coach V – get granderson out of there ASAP!- Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting .326 against righties (.244 vs lefties). Hits 1st on the team with the #1 OBP. VERY likely to get 5 at bats if a righty is pitching- Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .384 vs. righties. Hits 3rd on the team with the #1 OBP.- Josh Hamilton is hitting .377 during night games. Hits 4th on the team with the #8 OBP.- Matt Holliday is hitting .340 against righties. Hits 3rd on the team that is 3rd in OBP. -Nyjer Morgan is .350 vs. righties (.222 vs lefties). His team OBP is 12 but he has an extremely high percentage of 5 at bat games.
 
Poor guy who was ranked 2nd went 36 games just to win a $50 gift card.

Jose Reyes just bumped me up to 15 with a dribbler to the second baseman. I broke my "never pick a player at home" rule because Reyes is just unstoppable hitting left-handed. With the way the Mets are playing, he's a good bet for 5 at bats a game, and unless there is a runner on 2nd with 1st empty, no one wants to walk him so he's seeing strikes.

Does anyone have any knowledge of the splits that show how a pitcher fares against the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc...batters? Do certain pitchers tend to pitch poorly against leadoff guys for a certain reason? Is there a way to sort through this data to find out who is the worst against the leadoff hitter?

 
'gonzobill5 said:
Poor guy who was ranked 2nd went 36 games just to win a $50 gift card. Jose Reyes just bumped me up to 15 with a dribbler to the second baseman. I broke my "never pick a player at home" rule because Reyes is just unstoppable hitting left-handed. With the way the Mets are playing, he's a good bet for 5 at bats a game, and unless there is a runner on 2nd with 1st empty, no one wants to walk him so he's seeing strikes. Does anyone have any knowledge of the splits that show how a pitcher fares against the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc...batters? Do certain pitchers tend to pitch poorly against leadoff guys for a certain reason? Is there a way to sort through this data to find out who is the worst against the leadoff hitter?
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Got lucky there with Reyes since it was his only AB. Went with Ellsbury today for my 16th straight. It still says I'm ranked 3000 or so. Other guys I have added to my list in Reyes' absence:Jemile Weeks is .344 (11 for 32) with no walks against lefties. Seems to be leading off. Only four 0-fers in the month or so that he's been playing. Carlos Gonzalez has hit safely in seven straight, hits .320 vs righties and .340 at home. Though I'd prefer to pick him on the road, the Rockies are 9th in OBP (and I suspect even better at home) and they only play .500 ball at home so you have a good shot at that last at bat anyhow. Eric Thames on the Jays caught my eye by getting 2 hits in each game against the phils this series. Plays pretty much exclusively against righties and gets to hit in front of Bautista. Jays are below average in OBP though.Who am I overlooking?Also, just noticed they have a HR beat the streak, too.ETA: Rockies have a .350 OBP at home vs .300 on the road.
 
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'gonzobill5 said:
Poor guy who was ranked 2nd went 36 games just to win a $50 gift card.

Jose Reyes just bumped me up to 15 with a dribbler to the second baseman. I broke my "never pick a player at home" rule because Reyes is just unstoppable hitting left-handed. With the way the Mets are playing, he's a good bet for 5 at bats a game, and unless there is a runner on 2nd with 1st empty, no one wants to walk him so he's seeing strikes.

Does anyone have any knowledge of the splits that show how a pitcher fares against the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc...batters? Do certain pitchers tend to pitch poorly against leadoff guys for a certain reason? Is there a way to sort through this data to find out who is the worst against the leadoff hitter?
Click to expand...
What's the logic here? I have been doing the opposite, trying to pick guys at home. Outside of the potential missed AB in the bottom of the ninth, what else am I missing?
 
'Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
'gonzobill5 said:
Poor guy who was ranked 2nd went 36 games just to win a $50 gift card.

Jose Reyes just bumped me up to 15 with a dribbler to the second baseman. I broke my "never pick a player at home" rule because Reyes is just unstoppable hitting left-handed. With the way the Mets are playing, he's a good bet for 5 at bats a game, and unless there is a runner on 2nd with 1st empty, no one wants to walk him so he's seeing strikes.

Does anyone have any knowledge of the splits that show how a pitcher fares against the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc...batters? Do certain pitchers tend to pitch poorly against leadoff guys for a certain reason? Is there a way to sort through this data to find out who is the worst against the leadoff hitter?
Click to expand...
What's the logic here? I have been doing the opposite, trying to pick guys at home. Outside of the potential missed AB in the bottom of the ninth, what else am I missing?
Click to expand...
Just the extra at bat. The advantage of 5 at bats compared to 4 is really significant. Significant enough that it makes a .300 hitter (with 5 ABs) a better pick than a .350 hitter (with 4).If you pick a leadoff hitter you need 37 team plate appearances to get your guy five at bats. A road team only needs walks + hits + sac = 10. For a home team you need the sum to be 13. Boston, for example, averages 9 hits and 4 walks a game. You can see that if they are at home, slightly below average just isn't good enough - and that is using the best team in the league. The Cubs are the fifteenth best offense and only average 11.5 hits and walks.

I'm not sure I'm doing a great job of spelling it out. I'm trying to say its a real fine line between 5 at bats and 4 so every little advantage helps - and picking a road team is a pretty simple way to gain advantage.

 
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Just joined the group too...freaked out for a moment because it said I'm back at zero!

I'm still looking for an answer to the question about the usefulness of pitchers' batting order splits. Looking at Michael Bourn tomorrow vs. Charlie Morton. Leadoff hitters are something like 18-46 against Morton this year. In Morton's case, the stat is wildly inconsistent across his career. There are probably some much better picks out there, but I'd like to know if this is something I can add to help narrow the field.

 
Had Hafner today, hey 19! Getting pretty close to page 1 of the leader board...

Bourn 0-4 (only position player on Houston without a hit). For the time being that will be a split to ignore.

 
Boy this thread is dead...I'm posting my last 20 picks in the hopes of stirring up some discussion/interest. I'm trying to figure out how well I'm doing at hitting my target of 5 plate appearances. Then, I'll take a look at the ones that missed the target to gain some insight. I put a Y/N next to each game to indicate whether the player reached 5 plate appearances.

7/07 Joey Votto 2-for-4 Y

7/06 Travis Hafner 2-for-3 Y

7/05 Dustin Pedroia 1-for-4 N

7/04 Josh Hamilton 1-for-4 Y

7/03 Jacoby Ellsbury 2-for-4 Y

7/02 Jose Reyes 1-for-1 N *inj

7/01 Adrian Gonzalez 1-for-5 Y

6/30 Matt Holliday 1-for-4 Y

6/29 Adrian Gonzalez 1-for-4 N

6/28 Jose Reyes 4-for-4 Y

6/27 Carlos Gonzalez 2-for-4 N

6/26 Jacoby Ellsbury 1-for-4 Y

6/25 Jacoby Ellsbury 1-for-5 Y

6/24 Joey Votto 1-for-6 Y

6/23 Ichiro Suzuki 1-for-4 N

6/22 Kosuke Fukudome 2-for-5 Y

6/21 Jacoby Ellsbury 2-for-5 Y

6/20 Nyjer Morgan 1-for-5 Y

6/19 Robinson Cano 1-for-5 Y

6/18 Robinson Cano 2-for-3 Y

So I missed the target five times:

6/23 Ichiro Suzuki 1-for-4 against Jason Marquis

Ichiro is not generally a player I target, but there were only 5 games played this day and there wasn't too much to choose from. The best offense was St. Louis and they were going up against the Phils (though in hindsight it was Oswalt...) The Mariners came within three team plate appearances of Ichiro getting a 5th at bat.

6/27 Carlos Gonzalez 2-for-4 against Matt Garza

I loved this pick when I made it, Gonzo went deep twice, but I still missed my target by two team at bats. I need to figure out if I'm better off ignoring Colorado on the road, especially since I have Carlos penciled in for today!

6/29 Adrian Gonzalez 1-for-4 against Vance Worley

I just underestimated my man Vance here. Thought he'd struggle against all those lefties. This was a bad pick.

7/2 Jose Reyes 1-for-1

While I couldn't have expected an injury, he probably wouldn't have reached 5 ABs if he was healthy. The team fell 2 short and his replacement was 0-for-3.

7/5 Dustin Pedroia 1-for-4

I didn't realize he was batting clean up this game. That is what really sucks about the deadlines on this game.

And one more thing...I'm not sure how often my only hit came in the fifth at bat. The answer to this question is the difference between whether my strategy is working or if its pure luck. But I do know it happened at least once. Ellsbury eeked out an infield single in the bottom of the ninth on 6/26.

 
#### me, jason marquis was supposed to start for the nats, now its lannan. I wouldn't have picked carlos gonzalez against a lefty!

 
'Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Appears this thread has died, and only a few are still playing (many streaks ending at 3 with no selection so obviously the jumpstart pick is in play), so bumping up to drum up some more interest.Overall leader at 37...how far will he go?
Click to expand...
this damn thing is hard. For lots of reasons. I wish there was an iphong app. Would be easy to just do this from the :toilet: daily. That's how I manage lots of little crap like this.
 
'culdeus said:
'Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Appears this thread has died, and only a few are still playing (many streaks ending at 3 with no selection so obviously the jumpstart pick is in play), so bumping up to drum up some more interest.Overall leader at 37...how far will he go?
Click to expand...
this damn thing is hard. For lots of reasons. I wish there was an iphong app. Would be easy to just do this from the :toilet: daily. That's how I manage lots of little crap like this.
Click to expand...
I wussed out when I realized how difficult and frustrating this is.
 
'culdeus said:
'Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Appears this thread has died, and only a few are still playing (many streaks ending at 3 with no selection so obviously the jumpstart pick is in play), so bumping up to drum up some more interest.Overall leader at 37...how far will he go?
Click to expand...
this damn thing is hard. For lots of reasons. I wish there was an iphong app. Would be easy to just do this from the :toilet: daily. That's how I manage lots of little crap like this.
Click to expand...
There is an iphone app
 
Fresh season and I expect to actually keep up with it this year since I am in the United States this year.

I am sitting on six. Going with David Wright and Brandon Phillips today. DDBP has a 27 game hitting streak in New York, and Wright is going against a spot starter who I think is going to get rocked.

One of us needs to win this year. (my five game hit streak got me a 25% off MLB.com shop coupon) Would like to see what others get since its a new thing this year.

 
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