Beating Guppies (1 Viewer)

[secretid]

So I had the ultimate guppy draft today and ended up doing not that much better than these guys who were the worst drafters I've ever seen. I take 3 RBs in my first 5 picks. The problem is that they aren't going for RBs at all and so Chester Taylor is out there in the 11th round (literally) and I'm already stacked 4 deep in a start 2 RB league.

In the meantime they've got me killed at QB and defense which I know is unpredictable but some defenses really are just better.

Now, obviously I should be able to outdo these guys on the wire but the issue here is that my team is so deep with talent (save QB/DEF) that I don't really have room to go chasing guys off the wire. And actually I face this in all of my leagues. Bench spots are scarce and because I have more info than most owners I've got solid guys all the way down. But when a guy like Cotchery comes up it's really hard to find room for him.

I guess the idea here is that I've already got the depth that will allow me to unearth some championship-winning gems but it's really discouraging to not be dominating against obviously inferior competition and not feel like you have much chance to change it up.

 

[Angry Beavers]

You needed to adjust your draft for the "guppy" factor. RB's are scarce, but when guppies go to fill out their entire starting rosters before obtaining RB#3 the draft dynamic changes. I had the same issue in a work draft with a number of people who had never played. I ended up with LJ in the three hole, followed by Holt, TO, Wayne, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Culpepper, and ELI. The real advantage in drafting with guppies IMHO lies in that you will know who the sleepers are and will not reach for the defense or kicker. All of that being said, I was lucky to win in week one by 2 lousy points. Hope this helps.

 

[pizzatyme]

So I had the ultimate guppy draft today and ended up doing not that much better than these guys who were the worst drafters I've ever seen. I take 3 RBs in my first 5 picks. The problem is that they aren't going for RBs at all and so Chester Taylor is out there in the 11th round (literally) and I'm already stacked 4 deep in a start 2 RB league.In the meantime they've got me killed at QB and defense which I know is unpredictable but some defenses really are just better.Now, obviously I should be able to outdo these guys on the wire but the issue here is that my team is so deep with talent (save QB/DEF) that I don't really have room to go chasing guys off the wire. And actually I face this in all of my leagues. Bench spots are scarce and because I have more info than most owners I've got solid guys all the way down. But when a guy like Cotchery comes up it's really hard to find room for him.I guess the idea here is that I've already got the depth that will allow me to unearth some championship-winning gems but it's really discouraging to not be dominating against obviously inferior competition and not feel like you have much chance to change it up.

I have experienced the same thing time and again. I have found that once the draft is over, I use my considerable depth to offer lopsided deals to acquire the true studs during or after the bye weeks.Once the guppies realize hat their starters are out, they are more willing to trade, especially since they are getting a sweet deal.An example of this is offering something like L. Jordan or Caddy and R. Wayne for LT2. In this case, you give up alot to acquire the coveted stud.Just my experience anyway.

 

[higgins]

 

[QUEZILLA]

You needed to adjust your draft for the "guppy" factor. RB's are scarce, but when guppies go to fill out their entire starting rosters before obtaining RB#3 the draft dynamic changes. I had the same issue in a work draft with a number of people who had never played. I ended up with LJ in the three hole, followed by Holt, TO, Wayne, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Culpepper, and ELI. The real advantage in drafting with guppies IMHO lies in that you will know who the sleepers are and will not reach for the defense or kicker. All of that being said, I was lucky to win in week one by 2 lousy points. Hope this helps.

I got LJ with the 4th pick in my work league, Peyton went #2. There are 2 flex spots and you must start 1 RB, 1 WR. So I start 1 WR and 3 RBs. The only problem is most the teams in the league have 2-3 D/ K/ QB's so my pickings are slim. I got lucky with Buffalo D, and I hope Mark Brunell can be solid because I don't have anyone else. My RB theory is to horde them so nobody else can get them. LJJulius Jones, Marion BarberTatum Bell- picked up off the waiver wire, and its a 12 team league Warrick DunnChestor TaylorKevin JonesCedric BensonDominic RhodesWR Bryant/ Roy Williams/ D. Mason

 

[GregR_2]

So I had the ultimate guppy draft today and ended up doing not that much better than these guys who were the worst drafters I've ever seen. I take 3 RBs in my first 5 picks. The problem is that they aren't going for RBs at all and so Chester Taylor is out there in the 11th round (literally) and I'm already stacked 4 deep in a start 2 RB league.In the meantime they've got me killed at QB and defense which I know is unpredictable but some defenses really are just better.Now, obviously I should be able to outdo these guys on the wire but the issue here is that my team is so deep with talent (save QB/DEF) that I don't really have room to go chasing guys off the wire. And actually I face this in all of my leagues. Bench spots are scarce and because I have more info than most owners I've got solid guys all the way down. But when a guy like Cotchery comes up it's really hard to find room for him.I guess the idea here is that I've already got the depth that will allow me to unearth some championship-winning gems but it's really discouraging to not be dominating against obviously inferior competition and not feel like you have much chance to change it up.

I have experienced the same thing time and again. I have found that once the draft is over, I use my considerable depth to offer lopsided deals to acquire the true studs during or after the bye weeks.Once the guppies realize hat their starters are out, they are more willing to trade, especially since they are getting a sweet deal.An example of this is offering something like L. Jordan or Caddy and R. Wayne for LT2. In this case, you give up alot to acquire the coveted stud.Just my experience anyway.

I agree. You are essentially taking guys you acquired with 5th and later round picks for guys who should have gone in the 1st round when you do this.It does stink when you don't have enough roster space to pick up the players who should be on a team, but that just goes to show that small rosters favor the less skilled owner.

 

[Englishteacher]

The key to beating guppies is taking them out of their fishbowl. This is a literal, not metaphorical statement.

 

[secretid]

I tried to adjust my draft but I couldn't anticipate how off the wall it would be. A kicker went in the 3rd. It was a complete joke.

I passed up great RBs in the 2nd and 4th to take WRs. I got Dunn in the 5th.

Anyway, 2-for-1's definitely seem like the way to go. I've really struggled to get any of these through though in my other leagues. People don't seem to know they need depth. And they're just sure that their back-ups or RBBC guys are going to be the featured back in a week or 2. Maybe I just need to wait 5 weeks while they see they have some busts/injuries and then my sleepers will be shown as strong players and I can finally get some value... maybe...

 

[Uruk-Hai]

So I had the ultimate guppy draft today and ended up doing not that much better than these guys who were the worst drafters I've ever seen. I take 3 RBs in my first 5 picks. The problem is that they aren't going for RBs at all and so Chester Taylor is out there in the 11th round (literally) and I'm already stacked 4 deep in a start 2 RB league.

In the meantime they've got me killed at QB and defense which I know is unpredictable but some defenses really are just better.

Now, obviously I should be able to outdo these guys on the wire but the issue here is that my team is so deep with talent (save QB/DEF) that I don't really have room to go chasing guys off the wire. And actually I face this in all of my leagues. Bench spots are scarce and because I have more info than most owners I've got solid guys all the way down. But when a guy like Cotchery comes up it's really hard to find room for him.

I guess the idea here is that I've already got the depth that will allow me to unearth some championship-winning gems but it's really discouraging to not be dominating against obviously inferior competition and not feel like you have much chance to change it up.

As much as I hate the terms "shark" & "guppy", I'll use 'em here for clarity: part of being a shark is being able to adjust to what's happening in your draft. You didn't do that, but bulldozed ahead snatching up tons of value. Problem is, if your "obviously inferior competition" ( ) won't make trades, you're sitting on a whole lot of worthless value. On top of that, right or wrong, your guppy leaguemates think that QBs & DEF are valuable & are probably not going to give what you think is fair return on your "stacked" roster of RBs.There's a great thread from a few weeks ago about this, as well as an essay written for subscribers dealing with it.

 

[secretid]

Yeah I read the article and really did try to adjust but there's only so much you can predict. I'd never played with these guys before and had no idea what I was in for.

Let me reiterate that Chester Taylor went in the 11th round. Todd Heap went in the 14th. I am not being condescending when I say obviously inferior.

What adjustments would you recommend exactly? Going for a K in the 4th? I obviously needed to get a QB, I blew it there. But 8 QBs went in the first 2 rounds. Am I supposed to take my QB6 over Chad Johnson? I held off on TE because I knew I could get Colston whenver I wanted. I really don't even know what the adjustment is in that situation.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Yeah I read the article and really did try to adjust but there's only so much you can predict. I'd never played with these guys before and had no idea what I was in for.

Let me reiterate that Chester Taylor went in the 11th round. Todd Heap went in the 14th. I am not being condescending when I say obviously inferior.

What adjustments would you recommend exactly? Going for a K in the 4th? I obviously needed to get a QB, I blew it there. But 8 QBs went in the first 2 rounds. Am I supposed to take my QB6 over Chad Johnson? I held off on TE because I knew I could get Colston whenver I wanted. I really don't even know what the adjustment is in that situation.

Listen, I've done the same thing you did. Here's what I've learned to do in the rare draft I'm in anymore with inexperienced drafters:QBs will go fast (duh). I'll wait until 10 or 11 are gone & take one with my next pick (& maybe a 2nd right after that if I'm getting the feeling they're gonna continue to run). The "value" positions are dropping while all of these QBs are being taken, They will still be there and at least you haven't fallen off of the face of the earth at QB.

If K & D score a ton of points (regardless of their "real" value), they're going to go earlier than you want them to also. I'd plan on the same thing as with QBs, except maybe wait for 13 or 14 to go instead (especially if there's a mid-ranked player you really like).

As you said, you could still have gotten Taylor & Heap late. That's hindsight of course, but had you adjusted your thinking both before & during the draft, you could have done better damage control at the off positions & still have done very well at RB & WR. Just knowing that odd stuff happens in these kinds of drafts helps.

Also, part of "value" at draft time is determined by the other drafters. These guys basically put the squeeze on you without knowing it.

 

[mojorizin]

You can only use VBD to a certain extent in a league/draft like this one. You get so geeked up to get all this "value" that the other owners end up with a better squad top to bottom than you do and split your head open every week. First two rounds, they end up with about the same quality players that you do. Third Round they get Carson Palmer. You cant BELIEVE Kevin Jones is still there. Fourth Round they get good WR, but you cant BELIEVE Dunn is still there. Round 5 you cant BELIEVE Thomas Jones is still there........

You of course are such a shark that you KNOW all that QB/VBD value is in the later rounds so you have a ton of RBs, a few decent WRs, no TE, No D, and chuckle to yourself as you take Jake Plummer and Brett Favre because you are so much smarter than the idiots running right down the cheat sheet. Meanwhile they have the much better QBs, the same starting quality at RB, better WRs, better TE, better D AND better Kicker. But YOU my shark friend, have Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Kevin Jones, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister AND a rookie that may have a good season when the starter goes down. You of course scooped up LOADS of these WRs with boom or bust written all over them due to all the talk you heard here. Oh you laugh because these chumps dont know anything about them. Half of those "value" picks end up on the shelf or underperforming anyway and you basically whittled away your draft shopping for high dollar value like a Jersey Soccer Mom the day after Thanksgiving.

 

[Bluestaples]

You can only use VBD to a certain extent in a league/draft like this one. You get so geeked up to get all this "value" that the other owners end up with a better squad top to bottom than you do and split your head open every week. First two rounds, they end up with about the same quality players that you do. Third Round they get Carson Palmer. You cant BELIEVE Kevin Jones is still there. Fourth Round they get good WR, but you cant BELIEVE Dunn is still there. Round 5 you cant BELIEVE Thomas Jones is still there........You of course are such a shark that you KNOW all that QB/VBD value is in the later rounds so you have a ton of RBs, a few decent WRs, no TE, No D, and chuckle to yourself as you take Jake Plummer and Brett Favre because you are so much smarter than the idiots running right down the cheat sheet. Meanwhile they have the much better QBs, the same starting quality at RB, better WRs, better TE, better D AND better Kicker. But YOU my shark friend, have Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Kevin Jones, Warrick Dunn, Fred Taylor, Deuce McAllister AND a rookie that may have a good season when the starter goes down. You of course scooped up LOADS of these WRs with boom or bust written all over them due to all the talk you heard here. Oh you laugh because these chumps dont know anything about them. Half of those "value" picks end up on the shelf or underperforming anyway and you basically whittled away your draft shopping for high dollar value like a Jersey Soccer Mom the day after Thanksgiving.

I just bookmarked that reply.Seriously is it to loate to vote for you for class president???

 

[mojorizin]

With rookie/inexperienced fantasy owners, you almost always have to trade 2 for 1. Chances are they are only two deep at RB and WR, but chances are very good they are quality players that they will fear parting with. They likely went down the cheatsheet and either took the next guy (who at times has no upside or is an injury problem) or picked out guys who's names they recognized, so their #3, #4, #5 guys are pretty expendable, but their starters will be strong because they didnt outthink themselves in the early rounds of the draft and tough to pry away. Best bet is to swoop in on an injury because they dont have the depth to contend with it. Thats where you hope your planning pays off as your depth allows you to thrive until injury clears up and you can afford the extra player in the deal.

You also have to be quick to the waiver wire, and just like in a "shark" league, anticipate the value before it presents itself. In these leagues they wont have much depth and will be able to jettison half their team to pick up free agents without ramification. As soon as they see someone on the halftime highlights put on a show, they'll be clicking like crazy trying to pick the guys up. We on the other hand are sitting there several deep at RB/WR and won't/can't release quality players. See it happen every year.

 

[dickey moe]

As long as you're willing to give the appearance that you are not getting the "fair" end of any such trade deals early on in the season, you should be ok. As Mojo said, makes no sense to have 3 RB studs sit and rot on your bench. I loaded up on RBs and had to sacrifice a bit at WR and it's a start 3 WR league. I'm currently trying to package a deal right now to move Kevin Jones and possibly another good WR for Larry Fitzgerald -- if that doesn't work I might settle to move Jones for Reggie Wayne. I'll still have LJ, Gore, and Maroney on my roster.

 

[sinatravolta]

You needed to adjust your draft for the "guppy" factor. RB's are scarce, but when guppies go to fill out their entire starting rosters before obtaining RB#3 the draft dynamic changes. I had the same issue in a work draft with a number of people who had never played. I ended up with LJ in the three hole, followed by Holt, TO, Wayne, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Culpepper, and ELI. The real advantage in drafting with guppies IMHO lies in that you will know who the sleepers are and will not reach for the defense or kicker. All of that being said, I was lucky to win in week one by 2 lousy points. Hope this helps.

I got LJ with the 4th pick in my work league, Peyton went #2. There are 2 flex spots and you must start 1 RB, 1 WR. So I start 1 WR and 3 RBs. The only problem is most the teams in the league have 2-3 D/ K/ QB's so my pickings are slim. I got lucky with Buffalo D, and I hope Mark Brunell can be solid because I don't have anyone else. My RB theory is to horde them so nobody else can get them. LJJulius Jones, Marion BarberTatum Bell- picked up off the waiver wire, and its a 12 team league Warrick DunnChestor TaylorKevin JonesCedric BensonDominic RhodesWR Bryant/ Roy Williams/ D. Mason

Hoarding players at a position like RB is not going to get the job done to win your league unless you're lucky. I think you're better off making a series of trades to get studs at other positions. So - trade Roy Williams and Chester Taylor for a total stud WR if you can. Trade Kevin Jones or Tatum Bell for a good QB. Turn those late picks into guys that they drafted early on. Your league-mates aren't probably ready to trade yet, but as the year goes on - they'll be more willing. They'll be tired of getting very little production from RB, just as you should get tired of getting very little production at QB - except you have the benefit that there are more decent QBs out there - and they'll be someone good sitting on someone else's bench.With 12 teams in the league - trying to hoard a position and leaving yourself with mediocre/bad starters at other positions is not going to work.I regularly don't draft the best starting lineup in my league - but I've got more on my bench that I am able to trade into having the best starting lineup as the year goes on.

 

[mojorizin]

You needed to adjust your draft for the "guppy" factor. RB's are scarce, but when guppies go to fill out their entire starting rosters before obtaining RB#3 the draft dynamic changes. I had the same issue in a work draft with a number of people who had never played. I ended up with LJ in the three hole, followed by Holt, TO, Wayne, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Culpepper, and ELI. The real advantage in drafting with guppies IMHO lies in that you will know who the sleepers are and will not reach for the defense or kicker. All of that being said, I was lucky to win in week one by 2 lousy points. Hope this helps.

I got LJ with the 4th pick in my work league, Peyton went #2. There are 2 flex spots and you must start 1 RB, 1 WR. So I start 1 WR and 3 RBs. The only problem is most the teams in the league have 2-3 D/ K/ QB's so my pickings are slim. I got lucky with Buffalo D, and I hope Mark Brunell can be solid because I don't have anyone else. My RB theory is to horde them so nobody else can get them. LJJulius Jones, Marion BarberTatum Bell- picked up off the waiver wire, and its a 12 team league Warrick DunnChestor TaylorKevin JonesCedric BensonDominic RhodesWR Bryant/ Roy Williams/ D. Mason

Hoarding players at a position like RB is not going to get the job done to win your league unless you're lucky. I think you're better off making a series of trades to get studs at other positions. So - trade Roy Williams and Chester Taylor for a total stud WR if you can. Trade Kevin Jones or Tatum Bell for a good QB. Turn those late picks into guys that they drafted early on. Your league-mates aren't probably ready to trade yet, but as the year goes on - they'll be more willing. They'll be tired of getting very little production from RB, just as you should get tired of getting very little production at QB - except you have the benefit that there are more decent QBs out there - and they'll be someone good sitting on someone else's bench.With 12 teams in the league - trying to hoard a position and leaving yourself with mediocre/bad starters at other positions is not going to work.I regularly don't draft the best starting lineup in my league - but I've got more on my bench that I am able to trade into having the best starting lineup as the year goes on.

I agree completely. You'll often see in these leagues that you look at your starting lineup Week 1 and giggle saying "I'm gonna KILL these chumps" but you likely won't start out as well as they do and you'll be on the message board bemoaning lousy stud performance. As the season wears on, you'll likely finish a lot stronger than they do and be in a better position for the playoffs when they start losing their stud team to attrition and diminishing returns after a quick start.What you did was avoid those guys with question marks, that the inexperienced had NO CLUE had question marks. You loaded up on depth, and skipped right over those talented QBs (in particular) with potential problems. Other owners saw Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Palmer etc there and couldnt believe he was there (he's the best on my cheatsheet!) and drafted him. Of course you struggle first week and this guy is the total points leader and has no idea how or why, only that McNabb f'in ROCKS. They're so happy with that team, they think they'll be steamrolling all year long and may not touch their team to improve it.Patience, Grasshopper. Tough to come back against guys that know whats going on, but you will have the advantage over the rookies in the long run.

 

[JohnnyCat]

A question about depth - how big are all your rosters? We have only 6 on the bench, I feel like its just a bit too small. This is my first year doing fantasy football, so maybe it isn't. I feel like I have no depth at WR with only 1 backup and I'm not sure if my RB depth is that good either. I also feel like I'm stuck when it comes to making a waiver wire move. Unless a good player gets dropped, I don't see room on my roster to drop a player.

One guy took 7 RBs which leff him weak on WRs. He has Steve Smith so already in week 1 he had to drop his only backup QB Kitna, and pick up a lesser reciever. Is his strategy of RB hoarding not working out too well?

One of the crazy things that happened in my draft was that Dominick Davis went 10th overall.

 

[mojorizin]

I think you need some roster control to keep someone from hoarding 12 players they dont use, but not so much that it penalizes owners for drafting/picking up guys that may pan out later, or causes a problem with injuries and bye weeks, forcing them to waive productive players just to field a team.

Also kinda tough to swing bigger trades involving more than one player when there's no roster spots to put them.