Bench Peterson vs NYJ? (1 Viewer)

[OU#1]

Huge Peterson fan here. Been following him since his freshman days at OU. So now you know I'm not a hater. I'm probably his #1 fan! This is the 2nd time in three years that I've owned him. With that being said I do realize he's an elite talent, never bench your studs, but the fact is he's going to have down games here and there. It's always been feast of famine with him going back to his OU days. His game totals are just like his running style. You take the -2 yard runs with the 20+ yard runs because it evens out over the course of the game.

Nobody wants to play the lottery and try to predict when a stud RB is going to have an off day. Nobody wants to watch their #1 draft pick go nuts on their bench, but if there ever was a week to bench Peterson I think this is the one.

The Jets are allowing the least fantasy points per game right now to RBs. They have allowed 8.7 PPG. The league average is 18.4. In comparison, Minnesota, who I think has one of the top rush defenses in the league, is allowing 14.5 PPG. Pitt is allowing 12.5 PPG.

The Jets are allowing 23.9 fantasy points per game to WRs and 8.1 PPG to TEs. The league averages are 19.7 and 7.5 respectively. By the numbers it seems pretty clear the way to beat the Jets is through the air and not by running the ball.

Now for an elite back a down game is what 6 points? Maybe 10 points in PPR?

FBGs don't seem to think the Jets D can stop AP. Maybe it's because of his uptick in receptions? They have him as the #2 RB this week in both standard and PPR leagues.

I know this is crazy talk, but I'm seriously thinking about benching Peterson this week in my .5 PPR league for somebody who FBGs has ranked as the RB14 this week (don't want to mention name because I don't want this to turn into a WDIS thread).

I'm crazy right?

 

[ponchsox]

 

[otis68]

Huge Peterson fan here. Been following him since his freshman days at OU. So now you know I'm not a hater. I'm probably his #1 fan! This is the 2nd time in three years that I've owned him. With that being said I do realize he's an elite talent, never bench your studs, but the fact is he's going to have down games here and there. It's always been feast of famine with him going back to his OU days. His game totals are just like his running style. You take the -2 yard runs with the 20+ yard runs because it evens out over the course of the game.Nobody wants to play the lottery and try to predict when a stud RB is going to have an off day. Nobody wants to watch their #1 draft pick go nuts on their bench, but if there ever was a week to bench Peterson I think this is the one.The Jets are allowing the least fantasy points per game right now to RBs. They have allowed 8.7 PPG. The league average is 18.4. In comparison, Minnesota, who I think has one of the top rush defenses in the league, is allowing 14.5 PPG. Pitt is allowing 12.5 PPG.The Jets are allowing 23.9 fantasy points per game to WRs and 8.1 PPG to TEs. The league averages are 19.7 and 7.5 respectively. By the numbers it seems pretty clear the way to beat the Jets is through the air and not by running the ball.Now for an elite back a down game is what 6 points? Maybe 10 points in PPR?FBGs don't seem to think the Jets D can stop AP. Maybe it's because of his uptick in receptions? They have him as the #2 RB this week in both standard and PPR leagues.I know this is crazy talk, but I'm seriously thinking about benching Peterson this week in my .5 PPR league forf somebody who FBGs has ranked as the RB14 this week (don't want to mention name because I don't want this to turn into a WDIS thread).I'm crazy right?

If you don't start him, trade him to someone who will.

 

[G-Money]

Crazy Talk

 

[Clifford]

Would you start him against KC?

 

[Abraham]

Uh, no.

 

[maxwjom0]

Thats a great idea. You must have Emmit Smith and Jim Brown on your bench to replace him.

 

[JbizzleMan]

The guy I am playing this week has Peterson. Crossing my fingers that the never bench your studs theory is proven wrong!

 

[JMJ]

I'm as big of a Jets fan as you are a Vikings/Peterson fan, and I own Peterson, and I'm starting him. That simple. I don't expect him to treat the Jets like he does the Browns or whoever else, but he should still be a lock for double-digit points even in non-PPR leagues.

How many guys on your bench can you replace him with that should be a guarantee for double-digit points?

 

[OU#1]

Would you start him against KC?

KC is allowing 15.4 PPG to RBs. League average is 18.4, so yes I wouldn't even think twice.I normally just start my studs and never think twice, but this Jets game, on MNF, with a new Randy Moss "toy" to play with, and the Jets having home field just screams disaster for Peterson. And the year to date stats back it up.I know I'm nuts...

 

[Clifford]

Would you start him against KC?

KC is allowing 15.4 PPG to RBs. League average is 18.4, so yes I wouldn't even think twice.I normally just start my studs and never think twice, but this Jets game, on MNF, with a new Randy Moss "toy" to play with, and the Jets having home field just screams disaster for Peterson. And the year to date stats back it up.I know I'm nuts...

Well, talking real numbers the KC Defense is allowing a whopping .2 rushing yards more per game than the Jets, so maybe that answers your question.Also, your post about Moss shows you aren't thinking clearly or correctly about this. Having Moss on the field is an immense help to any running game. They know they have to leave at least one safety deep to help. If the Vikes run a three wide that's two players on Moss, a corner each on Harvin and Berrian/Whatshisname, and a LB on Shiancoe. 11-5=6. Only 6 defenders left in the box to stop Peterson on PA. Before the trade teams could put single coverage on all Vikings wideouts and move both safeties into the box. 11-3=8.

 

[Abraham]

Would you start him against KC?

KC is allowing 15.4 PPG to RBs. League average is 18.4, so yes I wouldn't even think twice.I normally just start my studs and never think twice, but this Jets game, on MNF, with a new Randy Moss "toy" to play with, and the Jets having home field just screams disaster for Peterson. And the year to date stats back it up.I know I'm nuts...

What year to date stats support your assertion?

 

[OU#1]

How many guys on your bench can you replace him with that should be a guarantee for double-digit points?

Again to avoid a ACF/WDIS I won't mention names, but I have the RB4, RB14, and RB15 according to Week 5. I think both the RB4 and RB14 are locks for top 10 this week. I think they have the RB14 completely wrong. I think he can be the top RB this week.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Yes, you are nuts.

The fact is that even the best defenses will yield points from time to time and the guys most likely to get those points are super studs like ADP.

-QG

 

[texasheat]

not a crazy idea, just a dumb one.

 

[OU#1]

Well, talking real numbers the KC Defense is allowing a whopping .2 yards more per game than the Jets, so maybe that answers your question.

Yards per game and rushing yards allowed have nothing to do with fantasy points allowed.

What year to date stats support your assertion?

I am using the numbers from the FBGs article for Fantasy Points Scored/Allowed. I use them heavily when I make my lineup decisions.

Yes, you are nuts.The fact is that even the best defenses will yield points from time to time and the guys most likely to get those points are super studs like ADP.-QG

I figured I'd get roasted posting this crazy talk. I can't believe these thoughts are even crossing my mind either. Sure the Jets are going to give up points, but the question is HOW MANY points? Top 25? Top 10? FBGs seems to think Top 2! I just don't see it.

 

[Insein]

Its not about never benching studs. Its who would you confidently put in to outscore him? He's going to get the touches regardless of who the defense is. Better opportunity to produce with more touches. Plus AP is looking dominant this year. Never bench AP.

 

[Exit 1]

Start him. Don't be cute.

 

[ponchsox]

I wish my opponents benched their studs

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

People forget about studs having bad weeks. But you never forget it when a stud goes nuts and you have him on the bench.

 

[OU#1]

I wish my opponents benched their studs

Look man, I get it. You don't agree. Please add something constructive into the debate?

 

[Abraham]

I am using the numbers from the FBGs article for Fantasy Points Scored/Allowed. I use them heavily when I make my lineup decisions.

It's an excellent tool for sure. I can see how that would give you pause. But where the logic of this discussion is lost on me is that there doesn't appear to be much reflection regarding Peterson's talent. Sure, he may have a bad game. All players have days when they aren't great. But if there was ANY back in the league that should be started at all times, it is Peterson.

 

[Clifford]

Well, talking real numbers the KC Defense is allowing a whopping .2 yards more per game than the Jets, so maybe that answers your question.

Yards per game and rushing yards allowed have nothing to do with fantasy points allowed.Those are rushing yards.http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tab...mp;d-447263-n=1

What year to date stats support your assertion?

I am using the numbers from the FBGs article for Fantasy Points Scored/Allowed. I use them heavily when I make my lineup decisions.

Yes, you are nuts.

The fact is that even the best defenses will yield points from time to time and the guys most likely to get those points are super studs like ADP.

-QG

I figured I'd get roasted posting this crazy talk. I can't believe these thoughts are even crossing my mind either. Sure the Jets are going to give up points, but the question is HOW MANY points? Top 25? Top 10? FBGs seems to think Top 2! I just don't see it.

It's a legit question and I don't think you're dumb to ask it, but I am trying to give you another data point to think about. I also don't see how you can say real stats and fantasy points have nothing to do with each other. Most of AP's points come rushing.

 

[OU#1]

Its not about never benching studs. Its who would you confidently put in to outscore him? He's going to get the touches regardless of who the defense is. Better opportunity to produce with more touches. Plus AP is looking dominant this year. Never bench AP.

He was dominant last year too. #2 RB behind CJ4.2, right? In all formats. He's been dominant since he joined the league IMHO.2009 Week 13 MIN vs ARI 6.5 Points2008 Week 3 MIN vs CAR 7.7 Points2008 Week 5 MIN vs NO 4.1 Points2007 Week 14 MIN vs SF 0.3 PointsI know I'm hand picking his worst games, but the point is every year he's had at least one game and looking at his schedule I think this is the week.Look at the above games. I'm sure you had better options on your bench those weeks...

 

[Exit 1]

The problem with your theory is that besides being an uber stud RB, Peterson gets a ton of carries on a team that has a pretty good offense (even though they have started out slow). Add in Randy Moss and the offense is that much better. Even if Peterson goes under 100 yards, he still might be good for a short TD or two.

 

[Clifford]

Its not about never benching studs. Its who would you confidently put in to outscore him? He's going to get the touches regardless of who the defense is. Better opportunity to produce with more touches. Plus AP is looking dominant this year. Never bench AP.

He was dominant last year too. #2 RB behind CJ4.2, right? In all formats. He's been dominant since he joined the league IMHO.2009 Week 13 MIN vs ARI 6.5 Points2008 Week 3 MIN vs CAR 7.7 Points2008 Week 5 MIN vs CAR 4.1 Points2007 Week 14 MIN vs SF 0.3 PointsI know I'm hand picking his worst games, but the point is every year he's had at least one game and looking at his schedule I think this is the week.Look at the above games. I'm sure you had better options on your bench those weeks...

The fact that you went three years deep and only managed to come up with four true stinkers should tell you everything you need to know. Also worth noting that none of them were against what were considered dominant defenses at the time.here are some of his recent games against really good defenses2009@BAL 22 143 6.5 0 4 23 5.8 0@PIT 18 69 3.8 1 4 60 15.0 02008@TEN 18 80 4.4 2 4 21 5.3 8 0@CHI 22 121 5.5 2 1 9 9.0 9 0you can do whatever you want but you started this thread to ask if you would be crazy to do this and thus far everyone has said yes.

 

[OU#1]

It's a legit question and I don't think you're dumb to ask it, but I am trying to give you another data point to think about. I also don't see how you can say real stats and fantasy points have nothing to do with each other. Most of AP's points come rushing.

Yes I do agree to an extent Clifford they normally go hand in hand. Sorry I do appreciate your reply and at least you offered something more constructive than the majority of the other replies. I like using the Fantasy Points Allowed/Scored article more than looking at the NFL stats because it factors in everything versus just looking at raw rushing yards. But I do consider every ounce of data when making decisions.

 

[GregR_2]

I agree FBG's projection for AP is too high. He might score that, and he might be equally likely to be RB20 in my mind.

I'm benching AP, but I also have 3 RBs who are all must start players, so I'm not dropping off as far as you're talking about.

 

[OU#1]

The fact that you went three years deep and only managed to come up with four true stinkers should tell you everything you need to know. Also worth noting that none of them were against what were considered dominant defenses at the time.

There were more. I purposely left out any playoff games and left out the ones that I thought were stinkers that might be considered "average" by others. IMHO if your #1 pick isn't scoring over 10 PPG then it's a stinker, but that's just me.

 

[texasheat]

I'd rather lose and have my league mates saying "wow Peterson did nothing today, tough break for you" rather than... "lol I see why you lost...you sat Peterson? you sir are a genius!"

 

[MIMN]

This is where you come off looking like a genius or a fool. If you really feel the others will out-score AP then bench him. At least your argument is reasonable. Every time I get tricky like this I wind up looking like the fool.

If I were the Jets I would make sure I stopped AP and make Favre beat me. Favre has shown some cracks this year. Some of that is on receivers dropping balls but he has also made some bad decisions. Last year he got away with those throws.

The catch is, if the Jets sell out to stop Moss at all costs then AP (or another Viking) could have a field day. If you have intel on who the Jets want to stop then your decision is easier.

If I had to pick a single Viking that is most likely to explode it would be Favre. However, I am still not starting him given that my other QB also has a great matchup.

At the end of the day, I'd play AP. It isn't my call though. Good luck.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Its not about never benching studs. Its who would you confidently put in to outscore him? He's going to get the touches regardless of who the defense is. Better opportunity to produce with more touches. Plus AP is looking dominant this year. Never bench AP.

He was dominant last year too. #2 RB behind CJ4.2, right? In all formats. He's been dominant since he joined the league IMHO.2009 Week 13 MIN vs ARI 6.5 Points2008 Week 3 MIN vs CAR 7.7 Points2008 Week 5 MIN vs NO 4.1 Points2007 Week 14 MIN vs SF 0.3 PointsI know I'm hand picking his worst games, but the point is every year he's had at least one game and looking at his schedule I think this is the week.Look at the above games. I'm sure you had better options on your bench those weeks...

Hmm, 4 bad weeks in 3 years? (j/k, I know you picked a handful of 'example' weeks).Anyhow Pocket Aces lose to a random hand heads-up about 1 out of every 6 times or so. You're still gonna play 'em though.Peterson is so consistently good that I think it's a bad idea to try and guess where that one bad week is going to rear its head. Based on the examples you've chosen, they've happened against a fairly random group of teams.Looking at the Jets specifically. Benson racked up about 175 yards against them last year in a playoff loss. As surely as Peterson will have a bad day from time to time, so can the Jets defense.-QG

 

[Clifford]

Hmmm, who has a prominent Jets defender been trash-talking for the past two years?

 

[OU#1]

I agree FBG's projection for AP is too high. He might score that, and he might be equally likely to be RB20 in my mind.I'm benching AP, but I also have 3 RBs who are all must start players, so I'm not dropping off as far as you're talking about.

Thanks for not thinking I'm crazy! Who do you think is startable over AP this week? Here's my list:GoreFosterBestCJ4.2SJaxMJDRiceTurnerCharlesBradshawThat's 10 right there. I own two in this list hence why I'm thinking of benching him.

 

[Billy Costigan Jr]

I am benching him to start Barry Sanders Jr.

 

[Abraham]

The fact that you went three years deep and only managed to come up with four true stinkers should tell you everything you need to know. Also worth noting that none of them were against what were considered dominant defenses at the time.

There were more. I purposely left out any playoff games and left out the ones that I thought were stinkers that might be considered "average" by others. IMHO if your #1 pick isn't scoring over 10 PPG then it's a stinker, but that's just me.

I haven't looked, but I'd be willing to bet that there are very few instances of a player scoring 10+ ppg for 16 games in a season.

 

[gethugefast1]

This is where you come off looking like a genius or a fool. If you really feel the others will out-score AP then bench him. At least your argument is reasonable. Every time I get tricky like this I wind up looking like the fool.If I were the Jets I would make sure I stopped AP and make Favre beat me. Favre has shown some cracks this year. Some of that is on receivers dropping balls but he has also made some bad decisions. Last year he got away with those throws.The catch is, if the Jets sell out to stop Moss at all costs then AP (or another Viking) could have a field day. If you have intel on who the Jets want to stop then your decision is easier.If I had to pick a single Viking that is most likely to explode it would be Favre. However, I am still not starting him given that my other QB also has a great matchup.At the end of the day, I'd play AP. It isn't my call though. Good luck.

Let us not forget, Childress is not one of the best coaches to make half-time adjustments...I'm sure I just opened up a can of worms.

 

[Clifford]

I agree FBG's projection for AP is too high. He might score that, and he might be equally likely to be RB20 in my mind.

I'm benching AP, but I also have 3 RBs who are all must start players, so I'm not dropping off as far as you're talking about.

Thanks for not thinking I'm crazy! Who do you think is startable over AP this week? Here's my list:Gore

Foster

Best

CJ4.2

SJax

MJD I'd have to think hard about this one

Rice

Turner

Charles

Bradshaw

That's 10 right there. I own two in this list hence why I'm thinking of benching him.

Those are the only four I would consider. And I would have to think hard about the bottom two.

 

[Raider Nation]

I wouldn't even sit AP if Kris Jenkins was still healthy.

 

[OU#1]

This is where you come off looking like a genius or a fool. If you really feel the others will out-score AP then bench him. At least your argument is reasonable. Every time I get tricky like this I wind up looking like the fool.If I were the Jets I would make sure I stopped AP and make Favre beat me. Favre has shown some cracks this year. Some of that is on receivers dropping balls but he has also made some bad decisions. Last year he got away with those throws.The catch is, if the Jets sell out to stop Moss at all costs then AP (or another Viking) could have a field day. If you have intel on who the Jets want to stop then your decision is easier.If I had to pick a single Viking that is most likely to explode it would be Favre. However, I am still not starting him given that my other QB also has a great matchup.At the end of the day, I'd play AP. It isn't my call though. Good luck.

Great post, thanks.I personally think the MIN offense flows through Peterson. My #1 goal would be to stop him. Moss is new addition and while his talent is proven I don't know if he makes his presense felt right away. Plus Farve has looked awful this year. I would stop Peterson and force Farve to beat me.

 

[Nemesis]

You also have to consider the highly likely PI penalty in the End Zone on whomever covers Moss.

That would give ADP 1st and goal and you know they aren't going to let Favre try to sneak it in.

 

[PatsFanCT]

You also need to consider that two of the four games the Jets rush defense stopped was the Patriots, who do not have a running game, and the Bills who were down early and often that they gave up even trying to run the ball.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Its not about never benching studs. Its who would you confidently put in to outscore him? He's going to get the touches regardless of who the defense is. Better opportunity to produce with more touches. Plus AP is looking dominant this year. Never bench AP.

He was dominant last year too. #2 RB behind CJ4.2, right? In all formats. He's been dominant since he joined the league IMHO.2009 Week 13 MIN vs ARI 6.5 Points2008 Week 3 MIN vs CAR 7.7 Points2008 Week 5 MIN vs NO 4.1 Points2007 Week 14 MIN vs SF 0.3 PointsI know I'm hand picking his worst games, but the point is every year he's had at least one game and looking at his schedule I think this is the week.Look at the above games. I'm sure you had better options on your bench those weeks...

2009 AZ was 17th in rush yds allowed, tied for 24th in ypc allowed at 4.5 and 17th in rush td allowed.2008 CAR and NO were both similarly lower end middle of the pack rush defenses.2008 phi had a top 5 rush def -- peterson was 20/83/4.2/22008 ten was just outside top 5 --- adp was 18/80/4.4/22008 chi was top 5 in yards and ypc -- adp was 50/252/5.0/3 in 2 gamessome top rush defenses in 2009:gb - 50/152/2 in 2 games (+ 1/44 receiving in one of those games)bal - 22/143/0 (4/23 receiving)pit - 18/69/1 (4/60)cin - 26/97/2 (3/40)I have no idea wtf your point is --- if you could elaborate?I'm not against your premise, but I'll be starting peterson in this particular case.if it helps your decision making in any way, nyj gave up 82 yards on 18 carries to ricky and ronnie when they played miami (4.5 ypc)

 

[footballnerd]

 

[chocolate bomber]

The important thing is to do what you want. I've got Bradshaw and Foster behind him and I wouldn't feel terrible about benching ADP. If not for Bradshaw's setback, I might bench AD for sure. The guy is an absolute, elite monster but he's got one of, if not the worst HC in the NFL when it comes to taking him out of games w crappy playcalling/adjustments(see 2nd half carries, wk1). Don't let this board sway you; dig up some Tomlinson threads from last season. "If you listen to fools; the mob rules".

 

[GregR_2]

I agree FBG's projection for AP is too high. He might score that, and he might be equally likely to be RB20 in my mind.

I'm benching AP, but I also have 3 RBs who are all must start players, so I'm not dropping off as far as you're talking about.

Thanks for not thinking I'm crazy! <_< Who do you think is startable over AP this week? Here's my list:Gore

Foster

Best

CJ4.2

SJax

MJD I'd have to think hard about this one

Rice

Turner

Charles

Bradshaw

That's 10 right there. I own two in this list hence why I'm thinking of benching him.

Those are the only four I would consider. And I would have to think hard about the bottom two.

I'm going with Foster and Hillis unless I hear something that makes me think Hillis isn't going to play.

 

[Otis]

I fear Sanchez crumbling under the hot lights of MNF and the Vikings offense going bananas.

 

[Wrigley]

lol at the over thinking here.

 

[Silver & Black]

I am a huge fan of never benching your stud rb's based on matchups. It has been my experience that the great backs rise to the occasion against the great defenses. They relish playing against the best.

Just last week there was talk of benching Bradshaw against the very stout Chicago run defense. I never considered benching him, and if not for that fumble on the way to the endzone, he would have had an enormous game. As it is, he had a great game.

Peterson is a star. Never bench him regardless of the matchup. That's why you drafted him where you did!

 

[identikit]

I fear Sanchez crumbling under the hot lights of MNF and the Vikings offense going bananas.

Hawks have no fear.