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Best Value WR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Our Gang
- Start date
Tanner9919
Footballguy
'was' and 'if' don't apply. fact is he didn't do squat this season, the QB spot is a joke ( even if Delhomme comes back,he hasn't played well since the SB loss years ago). Smith also has a tendency to get banged up.
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Banger
Footballguy
at extrapolating two games. I agree though that if Delhomme returns AND they get a decent backup that he has the opportunity to be a good value.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
My vote goes to Roddy White. Never has 1200 yards and 6 TDs come so cheaply. He had garbage at QB and really seemed to come into his own. WRs take time to develop and he did just that. He can still be had pretty inexpensively in most leagues. Rankings on this site have him down near #30.
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fixed
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
As long as Favre returns its Greg Jennings. The guy put up good numbers all season and plays in a division that has some very weak corners.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
No way on earth Greg Jennings is undervalued after this season.
FUBAR
Footballguy
SS did alright with Matt Moore behind center, 22/257/1 in 3 games, that's 117/1371/5 on the season.fixedat extrapolating two games. I agree though that if when Delhomme returns AND they get a decent backup that he has the opportunity to be a good great value once again.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
I sincerely doubt many people will have him in their top 10.
I'm not exactly sold yet on Greg Jennings and I don't mean to be the antagonist of your post, but as the deep threat for Green Bay, he didn't have a lot of yards or receptions - 53 recs for 920 yards. If it wasn't for his TD numbers (12 rec, 1 rush), he would fall right in with several other mediocre WRs. Naysayers to my argument would say - OK, but he did have 13 total TDs. That has to count for something. For that I show you Exhibit A...
Exhibit A: Since 1980 14 WRs had 10+ TDs with 50-60 receptions in a season (see below). Only one had more fantasy points the following year (Mark Duper) and that was thanks to Dan Marino's record breaking year. Most WRs not only had less FP, but they fell WAY off from their pace a season prior. I'm not saying the same will happen to Jennings in 2008, but the historical numbers suggest so. If anything, he will be taken WAY too early in drafts next season compared to where he will likely finish.
2007 Greg Jennings 53 rec, 920 yd, 12 TD 164 FP - FP following year (N+1) = ??
2005 Joe Jurevicius 55 rec, 694 yd, 10 TD, 129 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 68
1995 Billy Brooks 53 rec, 763 yd, 11 TD, 142 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 22
1995 Anthony Miller 59 rec, 1079 yd, 14 TD 192 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 91
1993 Calvin Williams 60 rec, 725 yd, 10 TD 132 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 99
1991 Michael Haynes 50 rec, 1122 yd, 11 TD 178 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 140
1989 John Taylor 60 rec, 1077 yd, 10 TD 168 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 116
1986 Mark Clayton 60 rec, 1150 yd, 10 TD 178 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 119
1986 Stephone Paige 52 rec, 829 yd, 11 TD 148 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 94
1985 Dwight Clark, 54 rec, 705 yd, 10 TD 130 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 91
1985 Louis Lipps 59 rec, 1134 yd, 12 TD 193 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 77
1983 Mark Duper 51 rec, 1003 yd, 10 TD 160 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 178
1981 Steve Watson 60 rec, 1244 yd, 13 TD 203 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 67
1980 Earnest Gray 52 rec, 777 yd, 10 TD, 137 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 48
I'm sure there will be those who think differently so let's hear your comments...
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
Well to say "if it wasn't for his TDs" is a bit silly IMO. He scored them plan and simple and he did so on very few catches. He will be entering his 3rd season which we hear time and time again is the break out year for WRs and he will still be Favre's go to guy.As I said, he think he can finish in the top 10 and he will be drafted behind guys like Harrison, Holt, Fitzgerald, Boldin etc. Of course he will be taken far earlier then he was this past season, but do you think the average fantasy owners will take Roy Williams or Greg Jennings first?
Sometimes I think we believe there are far more sharks in the sea then there are guppies.
Oh and by the way, as for history in the NFL, I believe its quickly becoming irrelevant in regards to todays NFL. The NFL is obviously heading towards a pass happy, high scoring league.
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Mochajavadingdong24
Footballguy
This is a good point, however, I would bet that Jennings circumstances are way different than any of those others. He is a young player, a high draft pick, and is on a team where there are 5 other very good wrs. If I had to bet, I would say that Driver will start to be used less while Jennings is more of a focal point..also being a gb fan I am privy to some of the lesser known things that are out there, and the word is that Jennings is a workout beast. First guy in/last guy out type. The JS (newspaper) polled 20 guys on the team and asked who the leaders on the team were. Obviously, BF won, and there were others like Driver, Tauser, Barrnett, and Harris that got votes. That is expected since they are the vets. However, I found it very interesting that Jennings got a few votes, seeing that he is only a second year player and also that he has had to work through a few injuries.I'm not exactly sold yet on Greg Jennings and I don't mean to be the antagonist of your post, but as the deep threat for Green Bay, he didn't have a lot of yards or receptions - 53 recs for 920 yards. If it wasn't for his TD numbers (12 rec, 1 rush), he would fall right in with several other mediocre WRs. Naysayers to my argument would say - OK, but he did have 13 total TDs. That has to count for something. For that I show you Exhibit A...
Exhibit A: Since 1980 14 WRs had 10+ TDs with 50-60 receptions in a season (see below). Only one had more fantasy points the following year (Mark Duper) and that was thanks to Dan Marino's record breaking year. Most WRs not only had less FP, but they fell WAY off from their pace a season prior. I'm not saying the same will happen to Jennings in 2008, but the historical numbers suggest so. If anything, he will be taken WAY too early in drafts next season compared to where he will likely finish.
2007 Greg Jennings 53 rec, 920 yd, 12 TD 164 FP - FP following year (N+1) = ??
2005 Joe Jurevicius 55 rec, 694 yd, 10 TD, 129 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 68
1995 Billy Brooks 53 rec, 763 yd, 11 TD, 142 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 22
1995 Anthony Miller 59 rec, 1079 yd, 14 TD 192 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 91
1993 Calvin Williams 60 rec, 725 yd, 10 TD 132 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 99
1991 Michael Haynes 50 rec, 1122 yd, 11 TD 178 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 140
1989 John Taylor 60 rec, 1077 yd, 10 TD 168 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 116
1986 Mark Clayton 60 rec, 1150 yd, 10 TD 178 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 119
1986 Stephone Paige 52 rec, 829 yd, 11 TD 148 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 94
1985 Dwight Clark, 54 rec, 705 yd, 10 TD 130 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 91
1985 Louis Lipps 59 rec, 1134 yd, 12 TD 193 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 77
1983 Mark Duper 51 rec, 1003 yd, 10 TD 160 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 178
1981 Steve Watson 60 rec, 1244 yd, 13 TD 203 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 67
1980 Earnest Gray 52 rec, 777 yd, 10 TD, 137 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 48
I'm sure there will be those who think differently so let's hear your comments...
If I had to bet, I would say that he will be an Owens level flat out stud by year 4.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
White is interesting. White has never played with a good QB in his NFL career but had a very solid season. I just wonder what direction Atlanta is going at QB though.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I love me some Cotchery. I've pimped him several times. His 2 TD performance this year is definitely disappointing, but he now has back to back 82 catch seasons with 961 yds and 1130 yds (in 15 games). All this while playing on the Jets with essentially no one throwing him the football and as a #2 WR. At worst, you get a guy who catches a lot of balls with good value in PPR leagues whose upside is currently unknown. But, watching him play, I think he has the skills to be a very good WR. Not one of these "top 10 talents", but he runs good routes and has very good hands and makes plays when they need him (3rd down and near the end of the game).
identikit
Footballguy
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
While your data is accurate, we need a bit more to do a proper analysis.1) FP totals of those 13 players from '80-'06 with 10+ receiving TDs and 50-60 receptions: 160.2 FP, 10.26 FP/G.I'm not exactly sold yet on Greg Jennings and I don't mean to be the antagonist of your post, but as the deep threat for Green Bay, he didn't have a lot of yards or receptions - 53 recs for 920 yards. If it wasn't for his TD numbers (12 rec, 1 rush), he would fall right in with several other mediocre WRs. Naysayers to my argument would say - OK, but he did have 13 total TDs. That has to count for something. For that I show you Exhibit A...
Exhibit A: Since 1980 14 WRs had 10+ TDs with 50-60 receptions in a season (see below). Only one had more fantasy points the following year (Mark Duper) and that was thanks to Dan Marino's record breaking year. Most WRs not only had less FP, but they fell WAY off from their pace a season prior. I'm not saying the same will happen to Jennings in 2008, but the historical numbers suggest so. If anything, he will be taken WAY too early in drafts next season compared to where he will likely finish.
2007 Greg Jennings 53 rec, 920 yd, 12 TD 164 FP - FP following year (N+1) = ??
2005 Joe Jurevicius 55 rec, 694 yd, 10 TD, 129 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 68
1995 Billy Brooks 53 rec, 763 yd, 11 TD, 142 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 22
1995 Anthony Miller 59 rec, 1079 yd, 14 TD 192 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 91
1993 Calvin Williams 60 rec, 725 yd, 10 TD 132 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 99
1991 Michael Haynes 50 rec, 1122 yd, 11 TD 178 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 140
1989 John Taylor 60 rec, 1077 yd, 10 TD 168 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 116
1986 Mark Clayton 60 rec, 1150 yd, 10 TD 178 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 119
1986 Stephone Paige 52 rec, 829 yd, 11 TD 148 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 94
1985 Dwight Clark, 54 rec, 705 yd, 10 TD 130 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 91
1985 Louis Lipps 59 rec, 1134 yd, 12 TD 193 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 77
1983 Mark Duper 51 rec, 1003 yd, 10 TD 160 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 178
1981 Steve Watson 60 rec, 1244 yd, 13 TD 203 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 67
1980 Earnest Gray 52 rec, 777 yd, 10 TD, 137 FP - FP following year (N+1) = 48
I'm sure there will be those who think differently so let's hear your comments...
2) FP totals of those 13 players in Year N+1: 93.5 FP, 6.63 FP/G
Now sure, it seems pretty easy to say that those players stunk the next year. But let's look at a few more things:
Jennings had 53 receptions, so I don't see why we should restrict our data to players with at least 50 receptions. The table below shows all receivers since '80 to have double digit receiving totals and fewer than 50 receptions:
Turner Daryl 1985 sea 16 34 670 13Turner Daryl 1984 sea 16 35 715 10Solomon Freddie 1984 sfo 14 40 737 10Paige Stephone 1985 kan 16 43 943 10Carter Cris 1989 phi 16 45 605 11Jett James 1997 rai 16 46 804 12Quick Mike 1987 phi 12 46 790 11Haynes Michael 1992 atl 14 48 808 10Chandler Bob 1980 rai 16 49 786 10Moss Randy 2004 min 13 49 767 13Walker Wesley 1986 nyj 16 49 1016 121) FP totals of those 11 players: 145.1 FP, 9.67 FP/G2) FP totals of those 11 players in Year N+1: 91.3 FP, 6.65 FP/G
Still a strong dropoff in FP/G, but it's "only" a 31% drop instead of a 35% drop. But how bad of a drop is that? Good question. We now know that the 24 receivers from 1980-2006 with double digit touchdowns but fewer than 60 receptions averaged 50.4 receptions, 872.6 receiving yards (17.32 Y/R) and 11.0 TDs. (Last year, Jennings recorded 53 receptions, 920 receiving yards (17.4 Y/R) and 12 TDs). That's an average of 153.3 FP, and 10.00 FP/G for those players. In Year N+1, the 24 receivers averaged 92.5 FP and 6.65 FP/G, for a drop of 33.5% of their previous production.
But the case isn't closed, of course. From 1980-2006, 74 WRs scored within 5.0 FPs of 153.3 FP in a season. That group averaged 72.8 receptions, 1,093 receiving yards and 7.36 TDs and 153.5 FP and 9.89 FP/G. In Year N+1, the 74 receivers averaged 114 FP in 14.3 games, an average of 7.96 FP/G. So the control group still saw a drop in production of 20%.
Want to use FP/G? 65 WRs averaged between 9.75 and 10.25 FP/G; they averaged 9.99 FP/G in year N, and 8.53 FP/G the next season, for a 15% drop.
Jennings averaged 12.62 FP/G last season, though. Perhaps we should set our aim a bit higher?
Let's look at the 56 receivers that averaged between 11.95 and 13.50 FP/G in Year N, and played at least nine games in Year N+1. That group averaged 12.61 FP/G in Year N. The next year, they averaged 9.83 FP/G, a predictable 22% drop. But we can split those receivers into two groups: the high YPR group and the low YPR group.
The low YPR group averaged 91/1259/10.7 the first season, 13.8 YPC. They averaged 12.56 FP/G in Year N; the next season, those 28 receivers averaged 10.38 FP/G.
The high YPR group averaged 76/1324/10.0 the first season, 17.5 YPC. They averaged 12.66 FP/G in Year N. They averaged 12.66 FP/G and 17.5 YPR; last year, Jennings averaged 12.62 FP/G and 17.4 YPR. The high YPR group averaged 9.25 FP/G the next year, a 27% drop. The low YPR group saw a 17% drop.
