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Better Fantasy Outlook for 2017 . . . ADP or Charles? (3 Viewers)

Anarchy99

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Just curious who folks think will have a better fantasy season this year (and ONLY this year) . . . ADP or Jamaal Charles?

Quick notes on both backs:

ADP
- 32 years old, coming off of knee surgery
- Over his last 8 games, he had a 142-420-3 line rushing the ball (2.96 ypc)
- Over his last 8 games, he had 8-56-0 receiving
- Over his last 8 games, he posted a total of 476 yards and 3 total TD
- RB competition in NOS includes Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and Travaris Cadet
- The Saints return the same coaching staff
- NOS still has future HOFer Drew Brees at QB
- The Saints air it out as much as any other team in the league
- In terms of RB fantasy production, the Saints rank #1 in 0 ppr scoring and #1 in 1 ppr scoring over the past 3 seasons
- Current average draft position at MFL is RB 34, 113th overall
- Total career touches (Rushes, receptions, kick returns in the regular and post seasons): 2,799

Jamaal Charles
- Will turn 31 the last week of the regular season, coming off of knee surgery
- Over his last 8 games, he had a 83-404-5 line rushing the ball (4.87)
- Over his last 8 games, he had 23-191-1 receiving
- Over his last 8 games, he posted a total of 595 yards and 6 total TD
- RB competition in DEN includes CJ Anderson and Devontae Nooker
- The Broncos have a new head coach (Vance Joseph, previously a defensive coach for MIA, CIN, HOU, and SF)
- The Broncos have a new offensive coordinator (Mike McCoy, formerly a head coach SD and an offensive coordinator DEN)
- Have Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch at QB with some OL issues
- With a new coaching staff, it is hard to tell what the offense will look like (although some players are talking like there will be a lot of passing)
- In terms of RB fantasy production, the Broncos rank #15 in 0 ppr scoring and #22 in 1 ppr scoring over the past 3 seasons
- Current average draft position at MFL is RB 48, 152nd overall (recent signing with DEN may not reflect an accurate ADP) 
- Total career touches (Rushes, receptions, kick returns in the regular and post seasons): 1,769

Who would you rather have, and what are your projections for both this year (Carries, rushing yardage, receptions, receiving yards, total TD)?

 
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Whew. Pretty similar to me.  Both have fairly crowded backfields. Total touches for each may come down to how healthy they are and how healthy the other RB on their teams end up being.  I will give a nod to AP at this point because I think he is healthier than Charles and I think his division foes are weaker defensively.

 
ADP.

Charles is done. AP is a known freak who will do anything to prove people wrong. Also, he's never had a good QB and Payton loves to bench Ingram. See Tim Hightower...

 
Great chance they are both toast, but if I had to choose one, I'd take Charles. 

Love what McCoy did with Danny Woodhead, who dreams about being half the player Charles would be even if Charles lost 2 steps.  Also, I think Ingram is a far better option than CJA.  I don't see AP taking over that backfield barring injury to Ingram, but if healthy, I could see Charles taking over the backfield in Denver regardless of CJA's health.

Probably all hinges on which one - if any - can stay healthy for 13+ games.

 
steelers1080 said:
ADP.

Charles is done. AP is a known freak who will do anything to prove people wrong. Also, he's never had a good QB and Payton loves to bench Ingram. See Tim Hightower...
Click to expand...
  • :goodposting:
ADP by quite a bit for me

 
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AP

Both have competition for carries, injury concerns, and are getting up there in age.

But AP is on the team that seemingly puts up 35 points per game.

 
Charles.

Only way AP gets a reception is when ball bounces off Fleeners hands, and lands on APs shoulder pad.

 
As the question asks for this season only, one thing to keep in mind is that KC, and the entire AFC West, has a brutal schedule. The hardest division schedule in the league. It makes a difference for fantasy scoring.

Nonetheless, I'd have to go with Charles as he has a far better chance for 30-40 receptions for PPR scoring.

 
spider321 said:
Both are toast.
Click to expand...
Yeah, where do I register my vote for "neither of the above"?

I would take almost all of the names appearing between AP and Charles on the MFL ADP list over either of them, many by large margins. I can think of a few specific league formats (*cough* Anarchy *cough*) where a near-guaranteed 600 yards / 5-7 TDs might be useful, but in general I'm reserving my RB3-4 slots for guys with a reasonable (if by no means guaranteed) path to lead-back touches. In that range, Perkins, Fat Rob / Perine, Martin, Powell, and Gillislee all fit that bill. AP and Charles? Not so much.

 
massraider said:
Charles.

Only way AP gets a reception is when ball bounces off Fleeners hands, and lands on APs shoulder pad.
Click to expand...
This. Putting aside injury potential (which is a wash between them anyway, IMHO) it's Charles' ability out of the backfield that's the big separator. With Booker's overall performance last year being middling at best, I think Charles becomes an option in the passing game, and has better ability in his hands and in his feet in open space.

Charles is also similar in size to Booker, so I think his role diminishes more and Charles gets more looks in those situations. 

Both teams have middling O-lines, and I have zero idea how either of these backfields will shape out, but ADP's role vis a vis Ingram, Kamara, Cadet, and Lasco seems more fuzzy to me than Charles' situation in Denver.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Yeah, where do I register my vote for "neither of the above"?

I would take almost all of the names appearing between AP and Charles on the MFL ADP list over either of them, many by large margins. I can think of a few specific league formats (*cough* Anarchy *cough*) where a near-guaranteed 600 yards / 5-7 TDs might be useful, but in general I'm reserving my RB3-4 slots for guys with a reasonable (if by no means guaranteed) path to lead-back touches. In that range, Perkins, Fat Rob / Perine, Martin, Powell, and Gillislee all fit that bill. AP and Charles? Not so much.
Click to expand...
This is were I am as well. Someone will draft both Charles and Peterson before I would. 

I believe Peterson will have the better year. I honestly would be surprised if Charles makes the final roster.

 
Charles for me.  I think DEN is going to try and run the ball....a lot, so they don't have to rely on their mediocre QBs.   Not worried about CJ Anderson or Booker.....Anderson can't stay healthy and Booker sucks.

The NO offense always runs through Brees, and AP has never been a good pass catching back.  RBs that do well in NO have to catch the ball...see Sproles or Pierre Thomas or Ingram.  With AP, you hope he gets 15 carries and all the goal line love.  With Ingram around, 15 carries a game is going to be a tall order.

That said, I would probably avoid both of them.

 
Charles. 

I think Ingram steps his game up with AP there. Charles can still be a receiving back. 

 
don't like either, but put odds of Charles being cut before season at 50/50.  At least AD is guaranteed a roster spot.

 
I don't like either, but this choice is pretty easy. Charles got a $900k (+$100k workout bonus) very cuttable contract. AP got a 2-year $7M contract that would have over a $4M cap hit if cut this year and something like $1.25M if cut next year.

But Ingram does seem to miss a few games, so AP could have a shot to contribute this year. And like Anarchy said, the Saints are better at scoring fantasy points with their RBs. I know it's not part of the OP's question, but the disparity in average draft position seems significant right now with AP going 20 spots earlier than JC. So even though, for the purposes of this question, I'd take AP over JC, there's no way I'd touch him at RB31 in any format. And I wouldn't take Charles at RB53, either, unless he makes the team AND looks good in preseason (in which case I'm sure his ADP will rise to a point where I won't want him). 

 
Added total touches to breakdown in OP.  ADP has 1,030 more touches in his career vs. Charles.

 
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