Bloom vs Actual drafts (1 Viewer)

[Bob_Magaw]

i'm with you, CC...

i'm a big proponent of stud DBs, either gotten with mid-late round picks or off WW...

in recent seasons we got players like gibril wilson, chris gamble & kerry rhodes off waiver wire (maybe this refutes my point that using draft picks on IDPs are good investment? )... parlayed wilson & jerametrius butler into will witherspoon... actually got lance briggs off WW when he wasn't taken in his draft... but it is extremely rare to get LBs of that caliber off WW in my experience...

this brings up another factor... the saviness of your opponents... in some of my leagues, the competitiveness & distribution of IDP knowledge from top to bottom is scary good... as a consquence, we have pretty good LBs (barnett from initial vet draft, tatupu from initial rookie draft, bullock from trade) and pretty solid anchor DE & S from initial vet draft (o-gun & roy williams)... but really didn't like DE2 (alex brown best) or S2 (ryan clark?) & REALLY didn't like CBs (mccutcheon was actually close to top 10 but not assured of starting)...

that means we might be short in three of four DB starting positions... which could negate our good LB advantage... we waited for scraps at DB... & because this league is so hyper-vigilant on IDP WW prospects... thats what we got... scraps, leftovers, sloppy seconds... so we would like to address DE2 & secondary this season...

offense certainly shouldn't be neglected... but i think to win, especially in leagues with 11 IDPs (2 DE & 1 DT, 4 LB, 2 S & 2 CB) that are weighted a little heavier on big plays like some i play in (such as sacks, INTs & FFs), it is important to be balanced... even if you have superior offensive firepower, it can be negated with overwhelming defensive deficiencies... teams that scare me the most are tough on BOTH sides of the ball...

one word about CBs... in some respects, it is most insidious & upside down part of IDP world, & poster boy position for how counterintuitive scoring to talent can be... in general, better you are, worse you score (smart QBs learn to avoid testing you)... the exception to this... & it is idea that was probably discovered independently, but i mentioned it to gringo before i saw it anywhere else in print... cover two CBs are more immune & impervious to vagaries of position, in that they are zone defenders that rack up a lot of tackles... for identifiable system & scheme reasons... winfield in MIN & clements in BUF could be even bigger monsters... also, look for guys with reps for strong tackling skills... dunta robinson had such a rep in his rookie year... ditto for rolle & rogers in 2005 class, & they look like good ones... richard marshall was one of my favorite CBs in this draft but unfortunately landed in maybe worst possible spot... CAR, with two young, stud incumbents in lucas & gamble (lucas BTW is very good, which is why gamble may not fit as well as others in above group by CC, but otherwise that was an excellent observation)...

one of my strategies, is to try & get 4 stud LB as quickly as you can... even if you don't have the 1, 2, 3 & 4 LBs, if you have a few top 10 guys & few guys on fringe of top 20, though you might lose matchup at LB1, you will win by time you get to LB3 & LB4, & this could push you into overall positional edge in weekly positional matchup...

once that is accomplished, try & get 2 safeties & 2 CBs that score like LBs, too... than it is like rolling 6-8 LBs each week, which is almost an unfair advantage...

if you have ultra strong D, you don't have to give up any edge you may have amassed on offense... or if you invariably run into some opponents with comparable or superior offensive talent... overwhelming defensive superiority can be enough to push you into win column on regular basis & playoffs...

* this is one of things i find most fascinating about dynasty IDP leagues... not one invariant "right way" to do things... some emphasize production or age... offense or defense... many ways to win...

 

[DeCleater]

(TOY) Thread of the Year potential right here.

I agree with Bloom and Pony Boy's approach to late round flyers to a point. I do the same thing. But how long do you keep such players. I to am a sucker for upside, and usually will give the player a year on the practice squad just to see if there is any chance he can become at least a part-time starter. As for UDFA's I don't see them ever getting a shot. I thought Ernest Graham from Florida had as much talent as any back coming out of college and he went undrafted and signed with Tampa. I drafted him in the last round in TOCOL and was sure he would get a shot at the starting RB position. He never did and then they drafted Cadillac. There have been UDFA RB's that did get a shot but they are like needles in the haystack, at what point do you draft a productive IDP instead. I guess everyone has to evaluate thier own team and make that call.

I wouldnt count UDFAs out so quickly, we've seen two UDFA RBs crack the starting lineup (Gado and Parker), with one sticking (Parker), and one with a continuing shot at the job (Gado). It should be added that these guys weren't even starters in college.

That's 2 and Priest Holmes was another, but how many people drafted them and held them long enough to see them start. I am sure they were also available on the WW even in deep leagues. At best it's a crapshoot.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

in recent seasons we got players like gibril wilson, chris gamble & kerry rhodes off waiver wire (maybe this refutes my point that using draft picks on IDPs are good investment? )...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

(TOY) Thread of the Year potential right here.

I agree with Bloom and Pony Boy's approach to late round flyers to a point. I do the same thing. But how long do you keep such players. I to am a sucker for upside, and usually will give the player a year on the practice squad just to see if there is any chance he can become at least a part-time starter. As for UDFA's I don't see them ever getting a shot. I thought Ernest Graham from Florida had as much talent as any back coming out of college and he went undrafted and signed with Tampa. I drafted him in the last round in TOCOL and was sure he would get a shot at the starting RB position. He never did and then they drafted Cadillac. There have been UDFA RB's that did get a shot but they are like needles in the haystack, at what point do you draft a productive IDP instead. I guess everyone has to evaluate thier own team and make that call.

I wouldnt count UDFAs out so quickly, we've seen two UDFA RBs crack the starting lineup (Gado and Parker), with one sticking (Parker), and one with a continuing shot at the job (Gado). It should be added that these guys weren't even starters in college.

That's 2 and Priest Holmes was another, but how many people drafted them and held them long enough to see them start. I am sure they were also available on the WW even in deep leagues. At best it's a crapshoot.

No one drafted parker or gado, but it was easy to see their opportunity coming and jump on them if they were on your radar. thats the key - being aware of all of these guys before the masses catch wind of them. Using draft picks on them just gives you a headstart.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

in recent seasons we got players like gibril wilson, chris gamble & kerry rhodes off waiver wire (maybe this refutes my point that using draft picks on IDPs are good investment? )...

i would counterbalance with this point in same post..."this brings up another factor... the saviness of your opponents... in some of my leagues, the competitiveness & distribution of IDP knowledge from top to bottom is scary good... as a consquence, we have pretty good LBs (barnett from initial vet draft, tatupu from initial rookie draft, bullock from trade) and pretty solid anchor DE & S from initial vet draft (o-gun & roy williams)... but really didn't like DE2 (alex brown best) or S2 (ryan clark?) & REALLY didn't like CBs (mccutcheon was actually close to top 10 but not assured of starting)...

that means we might be short in three of four DB starting positions... which could negate our good LB advantage... we waited for scraps at DB... & because this league is so hyper-vigilant on IDP WW prospects... thats what we got... scraps, leftovers, sloppy seconds... so we would like to address DE2 & secondary this season..."

the leagues in which we got the above mentioned stud young DBs, without naming names, were not as savvy as game breakers from top to bottom, nor was IDP knowledge as evenly distributed (but we wanted it that way... GB was a hand picked league in which IDP knowledge was pretty much a prerequisite)...

 

[elpasotexan]

 

[msommer]

in recent seasons we got players like gibril wilson, chris gamble & kerry rhodes off waiver wire (maybe this refutes my point that using draft picks on IDPs are good investment? )...

except in my 16 team idp auction league both Kerry Rhodes and Chris Gamble were drafted - only Gibril Wilson came off the wire...

 

[bjlmonster]

I must definitely be whatever Bloom is . I took Jerrious Norwood at 11, Brandon Marshall at 22, Demetrius Williams at 26, Mike Hass at 35, and waned Scheffler bad before trading for Winslow.

Norwood was okay, but all the others are definite Bloom guys.

 

[The Man With No Name]

That's 2 and Priest Holmes was another, but how many people drafted them and held them long enough to see them start. I am sure they were also available on the WW even in deep leagues. At best it's a crapshoot.

A guy in my local league picked up Holmes early in 1998 and still has him. Same guy drafted Lamont Jordan as a rookie and still has him, too.

I still have players I drafted in 1998.

 

[boubucarow]

You're making a strong argument. I'll have to go back a few years & take a look at your proposal.

If last year turns out to be an anomoly it could still be a trend!

The rules that bolted Steve Smith into fame could also be the reasons for the stud CB phenomenon. My dynasty league is pretty standard for defensive scoring except for 0.1 per yard bonuses on sacks and returns. Eleven of the top twenty defensive backs were cornerbacks. As mentioned, big name corners were well represented with the help of a Shawntae Spencer or two.

 

[ravnzfan]

(TOY) Thread of the Year potential right here.

I wouldnt count UDFAs out so quickly, we've seen two UDFA RBs crack the starting lineup (Gado and Parker), with one sticking (Parker), and one with a continuing shot at the job (Gado). It should be added that these guys weren't even starters in college.

That's 2 and Priest Holmes was another, but how many people drafted them and held them long enough to see them start. I am sure they were also available on the WW even in deep leagues. At best it's a crapshoot.

oh I think the Drugrunner might own 1 or 2 of these guys...his approach is to stash ~5 of these type knuckleheads on the roster and continue to deal for older vet type WR's who's moto is "never say die"...OK, maybe Jimmy Smith called it quits, but cousin Rod and "Cell-phone Joe" are still around and semi-productive (Horn's '06 not withstanding, but he does gat the hall pass on that one)carry 4, maybe 5 WR's and be done w/it, as picking most are a crap shoot anyway

super thread guys...props to PB and Bloom, for this is one of the great ones!

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Great thread.

I'm looking at both Hixon and Watts.

Watts is looking impressive

same old thing I know, but I look at the learning curve

for WRs in the NFL to be anywhere from 1 to 3 years.

This just may be the perfect time for Darius Watts to

make his grand entrance to the NFL level.