Brady owners may lose (2 Viewers)

[timschochet]

Every year you hear about teams that are in 1st place all year with great W-L records, only to lose in the first week of the playoffs. These are usually teams that are top-heavy, depending on a great performance by one or two players to win, rather than consistent play throughout their team.

This year, it could happen to Brady owners. As noted elsewhere, these guys are usually in 1st or 2nd place in the league. They've been riding his incredible numbers all year. But week 14 is at home against the Steelers.

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did. The colder the weather is, the more Bellichick will also be inclined to keep the ball on the ground. (In fact, all through the months of December, I predict games that the Pats were previously winning 52-7 will now be won 20-3, with lots and lots of running.)

Look for several of the Brady owners to go down the 1st week of the playoffs as Pittsburgh puts up a stiff test for the Patriots...

 

[urbanhack]

wow...thanks for the heads up.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

wow...thanks for the heads up.

Hey, hack.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Every year you hear about teams that are in 1st place all year with great W-L records, only to lose in the first week of the playoffs. These are usually teams that are top-heavy, depending on a great performance by one or two players to win, rather than consistent play throughout their team.

This year, it could happen to Brady owners. As noted elsewhere, these guys are usually in 1st or 2nd place in the league. They've been riding his incredible numbers all year. But week 14 is at home against the Steelers.

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did. The colder the weather is, the more Bellichick will also be inclined to keep the ball on the ground. (In fact, all through the months of December, I predict games that the Pats were previously winning 52-7 will now be won 20-3, with lots and lots of running.)

Look for several of the Brady owners to go down the 1st week of the playoffs as Pittsburgh puts up a stiff test for the Patriots...

I strongly disagree with this statement.I don't think the Steeler's defense will do much to slow down Brady.

I will have a bye during week 14.

Other than that, though, great post

 

[Texican]

Depending on how your schedule is, many Brady owners will have a bye week 14. Then hello NYJ and Miami weeks 15 and 16

 

[timschochet]

Every year you hear about teams that are in 1st place all year with great W-L records, only to lose in the first week of the playoffs. These are usually teams that are top-heavy, depending on a great performance by one or two players to win, rather than consistent play throughout their team.

This year, it could happen to Brady owners. As noted elsewhere, these guys are usually in 1st or 2nd place in the league. They've been riding his incredible numbers all year. But week 14 is at home against the Steelers.

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did. The colder the weather is, the more Bellichick will also be inclined to keep the ball on the ground. (In fact, all through the months of December, I predict games that the Pats were previously winning 52-7 will now be won 20-3, with lots and lots of running.)

Look for several of the Brady owners to go down the 1st week of the playoffs as Pittsburgh puts up a stiff test for the Patriots...

I strongly disagree with this statement.I don't think the Steeler's defense will do much to slow down Brady.

I will have a bye during week 14.

Other than that, though, great post

You will have a bye week 14?

 

[Bodysnatcher]

If Cutler can throw for 3 TD's on them... I think that Brady will be alright. If anything, I think that Brady will have bigger numbers because it is the Pittsburgh run defense that is great.. and the Pats aren't going to be able to get anywhere on the ground. That will force Brady to air it out.

 

[mozzy84]

so he will only outscore my opponents qb by 5-10 instead of the usual 20 something, call me crazy but I am not worried. Most brady owners do have other players that score points.

 

[timschochet]

You guys are right about the bye- I was thinking of leagues where there are no byes (like mine)

 

[daddymag]

I don't mind your reasoning but I am a Steelers fan, and I have a hard time thinking Ike Taylor is going to shut down Randy Moss.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did.

The Colts "limited" Brady to 255 yards and 3 TD's. That's about 30 fantasy points.

 

[stbugs]

Every year you hear about teams that are in 1st place all year with great W-L records, only to lose in the first week of the playoffs. These are usually teams that are top-heavy, depending on a great performance by one or two players to win, rather than consistent play throughout their team.

This year, it could happen to Brady owners. As noted elsewhere, these guys are usually in 1st or 2nd place in the league. They've been riding his incredible numbers all year. But week 14 is at home against the Steelers.

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did. The colder the weather is, the more Bellichick will also be inclined to keep the ball on the ground. (In fact, all through the months of December, I predict games that the Pats were previously winning 52-7 will now be won 20-3, with lots and lots of running.)

Look for several of the Brady owners to go down the 1st week of the playoffs as Pittsburgh puts up a stiff test for the Patriots...

Did you watch the game? I seem to remember 250+ yards and 3 TDs. That was as good as most of his early weeks. Brady has still yet to throw for less than 3 TDs in a game. Sure that might seem as "limiting" but that was almost as good as Romo in my league and I am sure most Romo owners were extremely happy.I love Brady this year, but 250 & 3TDs is something I would take every week. The 5-6TD games are just gravy and unrealistic to expect that every game.

 

[Judge Smails]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

 

[Max Power]

I was hopin for more running once he weather gets cold, but I just dont see it happening.

 

[daveandken]

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did.

The Colts "limited" Brady to 255 yards and 3 TD's. That's about 30 fantasy points.

Hmm, how cold was that dome set at?

 

[stbugs]

so he will only outscore my opponents qb by 5-10 instead of the usual 20 something, call me crazy but I am not worried. Most brady owners do have other players that score points.

If you had decent picks in the first couple rounds, Brady is just adding to a good team. He is by far my best player, but I don't think he was going until after most of the stud RBs and WRs were already gone. Maybe he pulls a Manning next year and gets drafted real early, but even I had no expectations of what happened this year and I thought he would eaily be a top 3 QB with Palmer and Manning. I just didn't think he would be scoring almost double the other top QBs.

 

[timschochet]

I don't mind your reasoning but I am a Steelers fan, and I have a hard time thinking Ike Taylor is going to shut down Randy Moss.

Lets not go overboard. I am not saying Brady gets shut down or that the Steelers will win. I don't think either will happen.What I'm suggesting is that the combination of cold weather and the Steeler defense means only good or very good numbers rather than phenomenal numbers for Brady, and that this could tip the scales against Brady owners who don't have the bye. (On the other hand, if they get through that week, the Jets are next, and you know BB wants revenge, which could be very good for Brady owners)

 

[Red Apples]

Depending on how your schedule is, many Brady owners will have a bye week 14. Then hello NYJ and Miami weeks 15 and 16

dammnit he's right, we cant let the brady owner get the bye.this is actually interesting stuff

 

[fatboyj711]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

BB will be limiting the play of his already thin RB corp preparing for the post season... However, I can see NE resting brady if they clinch home field early and Brady has already broken the TD record... look for cassell to throw plenty of passes if this is the case

 

[Bodysnatcher]

Wow, you really didn't comprehend the post that you were responding to, did you?

He was saying that Pittsburgh would be shutting down the Pat's running game, not the passing game.

 

[stbugs]

Wow, you really didn't comprehend the post that you were responding to, did you?He was saying that Pittsburgh would be shutting down the Pat's running game, not the passing game.

What post are you referring to in your post?

 

[[icon]]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

It is nice to see that timschochet hasn't let the passing of the Colts/Pats game dampen his obsession with starting Pats-related threads though

 

[Bodysnatcher]

Wow, you really didn't comprehend the post that you were responding to, did you?He was saying that Pittsburgh would be shutting down the Pat's running game, not the passing game.

What post are you referring to in your post?

Sneaky...

 

[stbugs]

Wow, you really didn't comprehend the post that you were responding to, did you?He was saying that Pittsburgh would be shutting down the Pat's running game, not the passing game.

What post are you referring to in your post?

Sneaky...

I know, I could have just left your post dangling, but I felt bad. Not your mistake.

 

[Bodysnatcher]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

BB will be limiting the play of his already thin RB corp preparing for the post season... However, I can see NE resting brady if they clinch home field early and Brady has already broken the TD record... look for cassell to throw plenty of passes if this is the case

They Pat's will NOT be benching Brady in weeks 14-15 or 16. That would just be silly. Patriots will already have a bye locked in the playoffs, so he will already have a 2 week break before he plays. Hell, I can see him even playing at least half of the game in week 17. Why on earth would they bench Brady in weeks 14,15 or 16? The man would be sitting out cold for over a month before his first play-off game. That would be a great way to cool off a red hot offense. You want to be clicking on all cylinders going into the playoffs, not showing up cold and rusty. Also, they are going to let Brady blow that record off of the charts, and shoot for an undefeated season as well. People act like nobody is worried about that stuff, but they are. You don't think that the coach wants to be the Coach of only the second undefeated team in history?

 

[moleculo]

I was a bit concerned about a lack of production for Brady, going into cold weather games at home. Seems to me like a good time to bring about the running game, and to start winning games on the ground, especially against NYJ and MIA.

So, I did a quick study of what Brady has done historically, specifically examining the last 4 games of the season which are played at home. This is a sample size of 13 games.

for his career, Brady has averaged 19.6 PPG (assuming 1 pt for 20 yds passing, 6 for a TD, -2 for int - YMMV). Within the games I am concerned about, Brady has averaged 17 PPG - a slight decrease. However, looking at the data, that includes a 6.05 point game in 2005 vs miami, where Brady only attempted 8 passes (I assume he was pulled after the first quarter). Discounting the Miami game, Brady has averaged 17.8 PPG - basically two points less than his overall average.

Looking at these games specifically, he has only one multi-int game (2001 vs Cle), only two games with 0 TD's (2001 vs CLE and 2003 vs MIA). He has seven games with multiple TD's, including 4 in 2004 vs BUF.

This year, Brady is averaging 34 PPG. Should he take a two point reduction in expected output in December, he would still be the top FF QB by a wide margin.

There is really no reason to be afraid of Brady playing at home in the cold. Historically, Brady's PPG at home in December is very similar to his overall PPG, although we can expect a slight decrease. IMO, expecting a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy would not be prudent. The only fear is that Brady is pulled so he is rested for the NFL playoffs.

year	game	quarter	OPP	h/a	CMP	ATT	PYD	TD	INT	RSH	YD	TD	ff points2001	13	4	cle	h	19	28	218	0	2	4	-3	0	6.62001	15	4	mia	h	11	19	108	1	0	3	-5	0	10.92002	13	4	buf	h	15	27	183	2	0	5	-5	0	20.652002	15	4	nyj	h	19	37	133	1	1	4	24	0	13.052002	16	4	mia	h	25	44	221	1	1	4	8	0	15.852003	13	4	mia	h	16	31	163	0	0	2	-2	0	7.952003	14	4	jax	h	22	34	228	2	0	1	7	0	24.12003	16	4	buf	h	21	32	204	4	0	5	23	0	36.52004	13	4	cin	h	18	26	260	2	0	5	2	0	25.22004	16	4	sfo	h	22	30	226	2	1	1	3	0	21.62005	14	4	tam	h	20	31	258	3	0	3	6	0	31.52005	16	4	mia	h	 3	 8	37	 1	1	1	2	0	6.052006	14	4	hou	h	16	23	109	2	0	2	2	0	17.65

 

[timschochet]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

It is nice to see that timschochet hasn't let the passing of the Colts/Pats game dampen his obsession with starting Pats-related threads though

1. The Steelers do not have a one-dimensional defense for shutting down the run, as the Vikings do. Brady's numbers WILL be limited in that game.2. Icon, I appreciate your kind words. Keep up the thoughtful and incisive posts!

 

[Calvitron Johnson]

Depending on how your schedule is, many Brady owners will have a bye week 14. Then hello NYJ and Miami weeks 15 and 16

That's the way it will be in our league. Already handed him the trophy. He also has that 1 ypc, idiot Lewis going against Cincinati I beleive.

 

[fatboyj711]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

BB will be limiting the play of his already thin RB corp preparing for the post season... However, I can see NE resting brady if they clinch home field early and Brady has already broken the TD record... look for cassell to throw plenty of passes if this is the case

They Pat's will NOT be benching Brady in weeks 14-15 or 16. That would just be silly. Patriots will already have a bye locked in the playoffs, so he will already have a 2 week break before he plays. Hell, I can see him even playing at least half of the game in week 17. Why on earth would they bench Brady in weeks 14,15 or 16? The man would be sitting out cold for over a month before his first play-off game. That would be a great way to cool off a red hot offense. You want to be clicking on all cylinders going into the playoffs, not showing up cold and rusty. Also, they are going to let Brady blow that record off of the charts, and shoot for an undefeated season as well. People act like nobody is worried about that stuff, but they are. You don't think that the coach wants to be the Coach of only the second undefeated team in history?

who said brady would be benched for weeks 14, 15, and 16... if home field is clinched, there's a very good chance that brady gets pulled early in each of those games... he may not even start week 16of course this is based on if and when NE clinches home field and brady owns the TD record...

 

[Bodysnatcher]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

It is nice to see that timschochet hasn't let the passing of the Colts/Pats game dampen his obsession with starting Pats-related threads though

1. The Steelers do not have a one-dimensional defense for shutting down the run, as the Vikings do. Brady's numbers WILL be limited in that game.2. Icon, I appreciate your kind words. Keep up the thoughtful and incisive posts!

The Colts have a better pass defense than the Steelers do. Brady went for 255 and 3TD's. Enough said.

 

[Bodysnatcher]

running game will be shut down, not Brady

BB will be limiting the play of his already thin RB corp preparing for the post season... However, I can see NE resting brady if they clinch home field early and Brady has already broken the TD record... look for cassell to throw plenty of passes if this is the case

They Pat's will NOT be benching Brady in weeks 14-15 or 16. That would just be silly. Patriots will already have a bye locked in the playoffs, so he will already have a 2 week break before he plays. Hell, I can see him even playing at least half of the game in week 17. Why on earth would they bench Brady in weeks 14,15 or 16? The man would be sitting out cold for over a month before his first play-off game. That would be a great way to cool off a red hot offense. You want to be clicking on all cylinders going into the playoffs, not showing up cold and rusty. Also, they are going to let Brady blow that record off of the charts, and shoot for an undefeated season as well. People act like nobody is worried about that stuff, but they are. You don't think that the coach wants to be the Coach of only the second undefeated team in history?

who said brady would be benched for weeks 14, 15, and 16... if home field is clinched, there's a very good chance that brady gets pulled early in each of those games... he may not even start week 16of course this is based on if and when NE clinches home field and brady owns the TD record...

So you think that the Patriots would actually bench Brady for week 16? So obviously he would be benched for week 17 as well... and then have a bye week after that... leaving Brady out of action for a month? Not going to happen. Hell, they don't even pull him out of games that they are winning by 40 points unless there is only a few minutes left.

 

[[icon]]

1. The Steelers do not have a one-dimensional defense for shutting down the run, as the Vikings do. Brady's numbers WILL be limited in that game.

Passing Defense (YPG Allowed):IND: 174.4PIT: 179.1Passing Defense (TD)IT: 7 TD Against IND: 8 TD AgainstBrady's Numbers Against (2007)IND: 21/32 - 255YDS - 3TD - 2INT (about 25-30 FF points)PIT: _____________________There is no statistical reason to think Brady would not meet or exceed his IND numbers against Pittsburgh. Brady will post solid point totals This is sorta like the thread where some folks (I think you were one of them) were ignoring the past numbers and insisting that Maroney was going to blow up despite my showing numbers that indicated that no NE RB had run for more than 70 yards against IND in the last few meetings. What happened? Maroney went 15/59/0.

 

[brock]

A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did.

The Colts "limited" Brady to 255 yards and 3 TD's. That's about 30 fantasy points.

 

[brock]

1. The Steelers do not have a one-dimensional defense for shutting down the run, as the Vikings do. Brady's numbers WILL be limited in that game.

care to make a some projections or are you lhucks?

 

[BusterTBronco]

Every year you hear about teams that are in 1st place all year with great W-L records, only to lose in the first week of the playoffs. These are usually teams that are top-heavy, depending on a great performance by one or two players to win, rather than consistent play throughout their team.This year, it could happen to Brady owners. As noted elsewhere, these guys are usually in 1st or 2nd place in the league. They've been riding his incredible numbers all year.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[eom]

my playoffs start week 15.

I'm not too worried about it.

 

[Intergalactic Kegger]

Our regular season runs through week 14. Weeks 15 and 16 are the playoffs, with week 17 the championship game. I got Brady and a playoff bye so the next time I need Brady to do well is vs the Dolphins. Why do we play in week 17? Because its a shame to waste a week of football. We don't care if players get rested in week 17 hurts anyone - we wanna play fantasy football!

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Technically speaking, over the past 5 weeks, the Jets have been shutting down the pass extremely well.

Obviously they aren't facing attacks like the patriots every week, but the evidence is there that Pats QB and WR owners may be disappointed with the results in week 15.

The Jets, for example, held Tony Romo and Big Ben to under 200 yards. They held Carson Palmer to 225 yards in week 7. They completely shut down the Skins and Phins (which is not really evidence of anything). The weather could be bad in week 15. Plus the Pats passing attack has looked mortal these past couple of weeks.

Them's the facts... don't kill the messenger Pats fanboys.

 

[glumpy]

Depending on how your schedule is, many Brady owners will have a bye week 14. Then hello NYJ and Miami weeks 15 and 16

 

[Bri]

Brady's not the only player on my FF team

 

[switz]

Every year you hear about teams that are in 1st place all year with great W-L records, only to lose in the first week of the playoffs. These are usually teams that are top-heavy, depending on a great performance by one or two players to win, rather than consistent play throughout their team.This year, it could happen to Brady owners. As noted elsewhere, these guys are usually in 1st or 2nd place in the league. They've been riding his incredible numbers all year. But week 14 is at home against the Steelers.A cold weather game against an excellent defense, the ONLY defense that has a chance of limiting Brady in the same way that the Colts did. The colder the weather is, the more Bellichick will also be inclined to keep the ball on the ground. (In fact, all through the months of December, I predict games that the Pats were previously winning 52-7 will now be won 20-3, with lots and lots of running.)Look for several of the Brady owners to go down the 1st week of the playoffs as Pittsburgh puts up a stiff test for the Patriots...

I hope so, since I play against the Brady owner