Brady's TD Total (1 Viewer)

[Alias]

The average leader for TD throws for the past 20 years has been 35 TD's, the median has been 33 TD's - I will use that range as the benchmark.

In 2007 the top 5 in passing TD's:

1. 50 - Brady

2. 36 - Romo

3. 32 - Big Ben

4. 31 - Manning

5. 29 - Anderson

 

[Alias]

Wow so 93% see at least a 20% drop off in TD production, I'll give ya that he had a phenomenal season and that we typically see a 41% drop off for top 25 QB's after a career year but a part of me thinks he has a good chance (I'd say 25% chance or 3:1 odds) to fall in the 40-50+ TD season.

I just realized he averaged 300 yards per game last season.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I think there will be a lot of dissapointed Brady owners this year. Moss too.

 

[Alias]

I think there will be a lot of dissapointed Brady owners this year. Moss too.

Are you predicting a fall from the top3 and top5 respectively, because I think even if they are not the #1 per position their owners are not going to be disappointed.

 

[Sheriff66]

I could see him drop 10-12 TDs this year, but that's still better than any other QB out there...

 

[switz]

I think there will be a lot of dissapointed Brady owners this year. Moss too.

Are you predicting a fall from the top3 and top5 respectively, because I think even if they are not the #1 per position their owners are not going to be disappointed.

But if Brady is being drafted in the first round, even if he finishes as a top-3 QB, behind say Manning and Romo, the owner will be upset, because he overpaid, and lost out on a better player.

 

[Alias]

I think there will be a lot of dissapointed Brady owners this year. Moss too.

Are you predicting a fall from the top3 and top5 respectively, because I think even if they are not the #1 per position their owners are not going to be disappointed.

But if Brady is being drafted in the first round, even if he finishes as a top-3 QB, behind say Manning and Romo, the owner will be upset, because he overpaid, and lost out on a better player.

Getting 2nd round performance from your 1st round pick is a helluva lot better then getting 4th round or worse performance - I am speaking from a 16 team league perspective (4QB taken between 1.11 and 2.11 last year in our league - all TD's 6pt non-ppr), YMMV based on league size and scoring.

 

[[icon]]

Once again.

When you add two tools like Moss / Welker you throw out the old data.

Sure.. he's only averaged 26TD per year. But that was with scrub receivers compared to what he's got now.

This is like taking a Toyota Camry with a 4 Cylinder in it for a lap around the track....130mph. Great.

Let's run another lap.... 135mph.... great. Another Lap? 128 mph. Not bad.

Now you drop a V8 Hemi in it and take another lap around the track and hit tops out at 175mph. Hrm.

Let's make a bet as to how fast the next lap will be if you leave the V8 Hemi in there.... Any takers?

I'm not saying brady is going to throw 50 again.... but anyone using old data as a baseline is fooling themselves. Short of a major injury to brady / moss / welker brady's a lock for at LEAST 4000/35

4450 / 42 TD / 13 INTs

 

[switz]

I think there will be a lot of dissapointed Brady owners this year. Moss too.

Are you predicting a fall from the top3 and top5 respectively, because I think even if they are not the #1 per position their owners are not going to be disappointed.

But if Brady is being drafted in the first round, even if he finishes as a top-3 QB, behind say Manning and Romo, the owner will be upset, because he overpaid, and lost out on a better player.

Getting 2nd round performance from your 1st round pick is a helluva lot better then getting 4th round or worse performance - I am speaking from a 16 team league perspective (4QB taken between 1.11 and 2.11 last year in our league - all TD's 6pt non-ppr), YMMV based on league size and scoring.

Yeah, being a late first round pick in a 16 team league is like being a second round pick in a 12 team league (I only play in 12 teams leagues) so I understand that. I've seen some have him as player 5 or 6 on their board. Just go look at the First Round Risk thread and see where he has Brady. Crazy.Second round with Manning is where he belongs in a 12 team league.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

Brady was one of most consistant performers before his historic year and even then was not close to top 5. I expect him around his 2006 totals which was 7th. Bulger was 6th 25 points ahed of him in standard scoreing leagues! Though then he didn't have Moss and Welker. So around 5th is probably his bottom for this year. Still his ADP is out of the world right now!

Moss killed my playoff teams! I don;t think he will be top 5 either. Lucky for top 10. It will be better then his Oakland days though when he wasn;t even top 50! haha I've always avoided him! For a reason! Brady I would love to own unlike Moss and do a few places. But I don;t think he will be the top QB this year. And I definatly think both are over valued this year!

 

[switz]

I'm not saying brady is going to throw 50 again.... but anyone using old data as a baseline is fooling themselves. Short of a major injury to brady / moss / welker brady's nearly a lock for 4000/37

4450 / 42 TD / 13 INTs

Anyone concerned with Brady's foot? I'm not sure which one it is - is it the one he plants on when throwing? Face it, Brady has never had the strongest arm, and a lot of Moss' great catches were on underthrown balls. Is Brady's foot going to negatively impact him more?Also... end of last season teams learned how to take Moss out of the game. I'm convinced the Pats will not have the success they did last year, I would doubt Brady hits high 30s in TDs. But that's just my opinion.

 

[[icon]]

Second round with Manning is where he belongs in a 12 team league.

In 6pt Pass TD leagues? No way.

 

[valhallan]

Obviously a repeat of 50 is unlikely, but I don't see how he falls short of 35. He put up very respectable totals with absolute dreck at WR, but now he has one of the greatest playmakers of all time and a very reliable possession receiver on the other side. Plus, the schedule looks very favorable.

 

[[icon]]

I'm not saying brady is going to throw 50 again.... but anyone using old data as a baseline is fooling themselves. Short of a major injury to brady / moss / welker brady's nearly a lock for 4000/37

4450 / 42 TD / 13 INTs

Anyone concerned with Brady's foot? I'm not sure which one it is - is it the one he plants on when throwing? Face it, Brady has never had the strongest arm, and a lot of Moss' great catches were on underthrown balls. Is Brady's foot going to negatively impact him more?Also... end of last season teams learned how to take Moss out of the game. I'm convinced the Pats will not have the success they did last year, I would doubt Brady hits high 30s in TDs. But that's just my opinion.

I love how you clip out my analogy and refuse to address it and istead fall back to the ol "injury issue" line. You'll never change Switz... Brady has a "Foot problem" like Moss had a whatever it was problem last year. Come on. You new here? Show me some details about this phantom foot injury. What part of the foot? How did he hurt it? What is the prognosis? Good luck with that. He'll play week 1 on. .... and yet you rank him alongside Manning who's got a very real bum knee and may not even start week 1?

I'll gladly make you a wager right now. $500 says end of year Brady is ahead of Manning by at least 5% in FP under the 50yds/pt - 6pt TDs scoring. I'll also wager $250 that Brady finishes in the top 3 QBs under the same scoring.

You willing to back up your talk? Pick whichever one you like. I'm good for it.

 

[switz]

I'm not saying brady is going to throw 50 again.... but anyone using old data as a baseline is fooling themselves. Short of a major injury to brady / moss / welker brady's nearly a lock for 4000/37

4450 / 42 TD / 13 INTs

Anyone concerned with Brady's foot? I'm not sure which one it is - is it the one he plants on when throwing? Face it, Brady has never had the strongest arm, and a lot of Moss' great catches were on underthrown balls. Is Brady's foot going to negatively impact him more?Also... end of last season teams learned how to take Moss out of the game. I'm convinced the Pats will not have the success they did last year, I would doubt Brady hits high 30s in TDs. But that's just my opinion.

I love how you clip out my analogy and refuse to address it and istead fall back to the ol "injury issue" line. You'll never change Switz...

I love how you can't have a converstation with you, without you being an arrogant jerk... it was an honest question, there was no need for you to get snarky. I didn't fall back on the "injury issue" - you brought it up, I merely asked if Brady's current injury was anything of concern. Man, you are part of the problem with your attitude on these boards.

Brady has a "Foot problem" like Moss had a whatever it was problem last year. Come on. You new here? Show me some details about this phantom foot injury. What part of the foot? How did he hurt it? What is the prognosis? Good luck with that. He'll play week 1 on. .... and yet you rank him alongside Manning who's got a very real bum knee and may not even start week 1?

Why are you getting so pissy about it? It's been reported all over the place. What on earth is wrong with you?

I'll gladly make you a wager right now. $500 says end of year Brady is ahead of Manning by at least 5% in FP under the 50yds/pt - 6pt TDs scoring. I'll also wager $250 that Brady finishes in the top 3 QBs under the same scoring.

You willing to back up your talk? Pick whichever one you like. I'm good for it.

What the heck are you talking about? Why do you have to go all machismo about an FF conversation?Man, I'm done with you... I asked a freakin' question, and you go all Tarzan about it....

 

[[icon]]

Oh don't play angel here switz... you get called out on a daily basis from folks for being condescending and as soon as someone shows a little spunk with you you're gonna cry "mean man!"? Gimme a break.

Let me know if you dig up any specifics on that injury... I'm curious myself.

 

[Alias]

From injury thread

New England's Tom Brady was hobbled by a high right ankle sprain durin the Super Bowl, but Brady checked out fine in mid-March and hasn’t had any troubles with the bothersome right ankle. He addressed the situation on June 10th, and responded to a direct question about whether his ankle was limiting him by stating "Not at all," he said, adding he will be ready for training camp in six weeks. "My body feels great. My leg feels great. My mind feels great. Yeah, I'm ready." Brady took the night off during the first preseason game but the move was said to be due to the coaching staff wanting a long look at the backup candidates, supposedly. However, it came out prior to the 2nd preseason game that Brady has a sore foot (which is unknown) and therefore did not make the trip to play vs. Tampa Bay. Here's what Brady had to say about the injury on Monday, 8/18/08 "Same side of the body, and same leg, but not the same injury," He also stated that it wasn't related to an Aug. 2 bump during practice, when running back Sammy Morris accidentally kicked him during a drill.

Yudkin a day earlier:

I don't claim any insider info and this is purely an educated guess, but he was fine earlier in the week. I suspect they are using the foot injury as an excuse for at least 2 reasons. Reason one is to protect him from a potential beating like the one he took in last years pre-season game (2?) against TEN. The OL is really thin and there has been a lot of shuffling of players; It makes a lot of sense not to take any chances. Reason number 2 is they need to make a decision on their backup QB and give Cassell, Gutierrez & O'Connel a long look. Gutierrez was banged up earlier in the week and it will be interesting to see how much he plays.

This is what I believe (hope & pray) is the case, but I would be neglect in my duties if I did not mention that it was reported at least once during TC (2 weeks ago maybe?) that Brady had been hit on the leg and seemed to be in some discomfort. However, Brady returned quickly and I have heard nothing since. IMO, if the team was really worried about Bradys leg they would have brought in a veteran by now.

I think Yudkin is 100% on target as to why he was absent from Preseason G2.

 

[[icon]]

Alias. I agree 100% as to the reasoning behind the lack of action in the preseason. I had read that also regarding the foot... but there's no real specifics about it out there regarding the origin, type of injury (Contusion? Muscular? Structural?) etc... This is nothing new from the Pats camp.

 

[mozzy84]

if NE decides to run up the scoreboard like they did last year he gets 40 pretty easy. If they decide to pull there guys in the 3rd or not go for the td when they don't need it it will be closer to 30. Knowing the pats I see them running it up again, which they have every right to do.

 

[djcolts]

I think he'll get around 36 to 38 TDs. The other teams will have studied film of the Pats offense in the off-season, and most likely most teams will conclude that they'd rather have the Pats offense try to beat them in 12 to 15 play drives than 4 play drives. This will mean fewer offensive possessions, more running of the ball, and lots of short passes to keep the chains moving.

Now, I don't expect a 20 TD drop like what happened to Manning in 2005, for two main reasons:

1. Randy Moss. When motivated (and he still will be - I think he's found a permanent home) - he makes mediocre QBs look great, and great QBs like like Zeus.

2. The Pats won't shut it down at the end of the regular season like the Colts did in 2005.

 

[Alias]

top end of the 2nd poll choice, 39 passing TD's.

 

[switz]

you get called out on a daily basis from folks for being condescending

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

33 or less. The injury bug has been lingering around him, plus I think the high # of tds was b/c belly-chick wanted to prove a point to the league. I think Brady is pulled earlier in games than he was last year, as even Belly-chick prolly thinks if he rests Brady a LIL each game vs running up the score he is healthy enough to dominate in the superbowl and not get sacked so much by the Giants pass rush. Not to mention that not having faulk at 100% prolly takes away 2-3 passing tds/dump offs for long tds.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

and i think acting like the TD total from last yer, is the same as comparing to ANY last yr total is lightly disingenuous. Coming off "spygate" this team was motivated to show up the league and run up the score, and it may have ultimately cost them the Lombardi. I don't think Belly-chick and The Kraft Macaroni man make that mistake again.

 

[Saint]

I'm on the 35-39 range. He has the same offensive weapons he did last year (Welker and Moss). I am a little concerned that Stallworth has been replaced by Gaffney, but we'll have to see how that goes. While I agree that 50 was absolutely phenomenal, Brady and his receivers are one of the elite teams in the NFL right now. No way this guy finishes outside the top 5. Chances are he'll repeat as the #1 QB on the year, as long as everyone is healthy.

As for the "foot" bug, I agree with Yudkin's post. Brady played "injured" many games last season, and he still put up career numbers. I see the Pats playing it safe with him, and he'll be consistent as always.

Is he a 1st rounder, well it really depends upon how your league drafts. In a 6-pt TD league, I can absolutely see him as a first rounder. In my mind, it's a pretty safe pick.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think he'll get around 36 to 38 TDs. The other teams will have studied film of the Pats offense in the off-season, and most likely most teams will conclude that they'd rather have the Pats offense try to beat them in 12 to 15 play drives than 4 play drives. This will mean fewer offensive possessions, more running of the ball, and lots of short passes to keep the chains moving. Now, I don't expect a 20 TD drop like what happened to Manning in 2005, for two main reasons:1. Randy Moss. When motivated (and he still will be - I think he's found a permanent home) - he makes mediocre QBs look great, and great QBs like like Zeus. 2. The Pats won't shut it down at the end of the regular season like the Colts did in 2005.

The Pats will shut it down weeks 16 and 17 unless they're undefeated. So they will shut it down. 38-40 TDs for Brady, and 11-14 wins for NE.

 

[kd1]

and i think acting like the TD total from last yer, is the same as comparing to ANY last yr total is lightly disingenuous. Coming off "spygate" this team was motivated to show up the league and run up the score, and it may have ultimately cost them the Lombardi. I don't think Belly-chick and The Kraft Macaroni man make that mistake again.

but they still are motivated to show up the league. they lost the superbowl last year. they have an even bigger chip on their shoulder now. you think belichik is going to say, "ok, you got us. we'll play nice now". dream on. also, think what you want about the guy, but he's smarter than every other HC in the league. you think it's as simple as offseason gameplanning for other teams to shut down the pats offense? beli will be a step ahead like he always is.put me down for a 15-1 season at worst, and another 45+ tds. brace yourselves for another year of Belichik spite, folks. you're kidding yourselves if you think otherwise.

 

[Darko M]

Call me biased, since I drafted him in the first round, but I don't see why he can't throw another 45. News of the defense not being as good means they may get into some shoot outs, instead of all the blowouts last year.

 

[kd1]

I think he'll get around 36 to 38 TDs. The other teams will have studied film of the Pats offense in the off-season, and most likely most teams will conclude that they'd rather have the Pats offense try to beat them in 12 to 15 play drives than 4 play drives. This will mean fewer offensive possessions, more running of the ball, and lots of short passes to keep the chains moving. Now, I don't expect a 20 TD drop like what happened to Manning in 2005, for two main reasons:1. Randy Moss. When motivated (and he still will be - I think he's found a permanent home) - he makes mediocre QBs look great, and great QBs like like Zeus. 2. The Pats won't shut it down at the end of the regular season like the Colts did in 2005.

The Pats will shut it down weeks 16 and 17 unless they're undefeated. So they will shut it down. 38-40 TDs for Brady, and 11-14 wins for NE.

the odds of them either not being in a race for playoff positioning, or not being undefeated, going into week 16, are pretty close to none. 13-1 is the best, and probably only scenario in which they would be in a position to "shut it down" in week 16.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, just like Manning, the over/under should be set at 35. People were screaming that I was nuts when I said that for Manning . . . and how did that turn out.

Remember, number of players that have ever thrown 35 TD in back-to-back seasons . . . one (Favre - who did it twice in a row).

 

[David Yudkin]

I think he'll get around 36 to 38 TDs. The other teams will have studied film of the Pats offense in the off-season, and most likely most teams will conclude that they'd rather have the Pats offense try to beat them in 12 to 15 play drives than 4 play drives. This will mean fewer offensive possessions, more running of the ball, and lots of short passes to keep the chains moving. Now, I don't expect a 20 TD drop like what happened to Manning in 2005, for two main reasons:1. Randy Moss. When motivated (and he still will be - I think he's found a permanent home) - he makes mediocre QBs look great, and great QBs like like Zeus. 2. The Pats won't shut it down at the end of the regular season like the Colts did in 2005.

The Pats will shut it down weeks 16 and 17 unless they're undefeated. So they will shut it down. 38-40 TDs for Brady, and 11-14 wins for NE.

How many times have the Pats "shut it down" in the past? How about . . . once. BB does not believe in not playing his players all 16 games as he feels it messes with the team's chemistry. Brady has not sat in the past (with the ONLY exception being a game they were not trying to win).For those that remember, there was a game in Week 17 one year where NE effectively "lost" to Miami where Brady started but gave way to Matt Cassel (who played well enough to keep the game close). NE benefited by losing and having to play Jacksonville instead of another hot team int he playoffs. But that was the only game where Brady sat for more than a few minutes at the end of a game.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Around 36-38 sounds about right, with the approximate distribution going like this:

Moss 15-17

Welker 6-8

Gaffney/other WRs 4-6

TEs 4-7

RBs 3-7

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

and i think acting like the TD total from last yer, is the same as comparing to ANY last yr total is lightly disingenuous. Coming off "spygate" this team was motivated to show up the league and run up the score, and it may have ultimately cost them the Lombardi. I don't think Belly-chick and The Kraft Macaroni man make that mistake again.

but they still are motivated to show up the league. they lost the superbowl last year. they have an even bigger chip on their shoulder now. you think belichik is going to say, "ok, you got us. we'll play nice now". dream on. also, think what you want about the guy, but he's smarter than every other HC in the league. you think it's as simple as offseason gameplanning for other teams to shut down the pats offense? beli will be a step ahead like he always is.put me down for a 15-1 season at worst, and another 45+ tds. brace yourselves for another year of Belichik spite, folks. you're kidding yourselves if you think otherwise.

15 and 1 at worst?! Wow...just wow. I think he'll have a fine year by standards other than last year. The thing I see hurting the most is the running game. The O-Line woes will negatively effect both the passing numbers as well as the running numbers but I believe they will still have to run the ball better this year. Actually, what I believe is that more teams are going to take chances by bringing more pressure. I think Brady will be hurried a bunch this year and the only way to keep the defenses honest will be to run the ball. Enter Maroney. Now, I also think Brady-to-Moss will continue to be the red-zone game plan but Maroney will get more done between the 20s than last year.