'kyoun1e said:
'farroki said:
Playing Lloyd with confidence. I think he'll get targeted enough to be serviceable in PPR. Probably won't get a TD but it didn't stop him from racking up 13 points last week. Lloyd is very talented and might be a safety net for Clemens. I think they'll try to utilize Lloyd as much as they can. JMO.
With confidence? What are you confident about? Netting 4 catches for 40 yards?I just don't see much upside here.
Clemens is a complete wild card here and could be a Gabbert like disaster for all we know. STL offensive line is absolutely terrible which doesn't help. It will be tough for Lloyd to get targets if it's constantly a three and out situation. And while Lloyd may get targets, will they be "quality" targets? Unless Clemens and Lloyd somehow have some out of left field chemistry here, anyone counting on Lloyd is most likely to see Lloyd's floor vs. any upside this week.
KY
Not looking for upside, looking for relative floor. And I do think that 4/40 is that floor, with 5/50 a little more probable. Throw in about a 30% chance for a touchdown works out to be ~10 points in my PPR league -- exactly what I would want with Lloyd in at the flex/WR3.I don't think "quality" targets matter either, as Lloyd is the kind of receiver who can go up and get the ball in a large radius around him -- the ball does not need to be thrown to him on a rope. This helps seeing as Clemens will likely be under a good amount of pressure and will need to deliver the ball quickly.
The one real threat (aside from Clemens just throwing pick after pick) is that Lloyd is used the same way as he did two weeks ago -- one measley catch and sitting the 4th quarter. Would love to know more from homers/people who watched that STL/SF game for more insight as to why.
The key for me is how probable that situation will be. If Lloyd has the opportunity for 6-8 targets and 4-5 catches, I still think he's utile in a PPR. But only if the Rams use him.
I'd be curious to know what WRs you'd be willing to start over Lloyd considering your optimism.Not sure I agree with your 4/40 floor. I'd say his floor is 4 pts in a PPR league considering his one catch for 30ish yards recently. That certainly COULD happen.
It's my semis. I'm facing some serious firepower. My ATL D takes some pressure off me and I've got Romo/Felix tonight. Still, even if those first three perform above expectations I don't feel Lloyd as "safe." There are a ton of WRs out there that can get me 8-10 pts...just see Bloom/Dodds predictions.
Risk vs reward ratio just doesn't feel right here with Lloyd.
KY
4 points in most PPR leagues @ 0.5/rec is 2 catches and 20 yards. That seems too paltryI totally get that Lloyd put up a stinker two weeks ago. I get that he faces a similar situation and that it could happen again.
But looking at all his performances this year, I think that 1 catch game is the exception, not the rule, and if he does put up a stinker, it's likely to be less of a total abomination like 2 weeks ago given the Rams will need to throw from behind, and they are playing a division foe and are less likely to just lie down.
3 admittedly very big Qs rely on this assumption --
[*]Can Clemens be any way effective getting the ball to his receivers?
[*]Will CIN D be in Clemens face all game (or, can the Rams's O line pass protect effectively)?
[*]Will the Rams actually use Lloyd and the passing game effectively (or, will they actually keep tossing it to try and get points in garbage time)?
So I wouldn't call what I have for Lloyd optimism -- there are plenty of WRs I would start before him. Besides the obvious, guys like Bowe, Wallace, Cruz, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, and Demariyus Thomas are guys I would sit Lloyd for.
But I think the risk/reward in guys like Nate Washington/Damian Williams, Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, Gaffney, Mike Williams are relatively the same with Lloyd. Situationally, some may have better matchups, but Lloyd is simply too talented and can reach an acceptable floor even in a bad situation.
I am really thinking about the TEN receivers -- one of them will have a huge game, the other likely solid, and picking which one of them carries its own risk -- I think that Lloyd can be as effective as the lesser of the two performers this week for TEN, and as a WR3/flex, that is good enough.
Time will tell, and definitely open to hearing more thoughts either way.