If that ends up being Julio Jones, few will make that deal. If it's a lesser prospect like Hankerson or Baldwin, then maybe.
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Brandon Lloyd (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wiscstlatlmia
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zilladog
Footballguy
If Julio Jones goes to the Rams, and that instantly kills Lloyds' trade value, then maybe that should tell ya something about how fragile Lloyd's "real" value is to begin with.Lloyd seems like a perfect candidate to package with another guy or pick or two and go get a top notch studly stud with him. Calvin? Andre? maybe, just maybe.You might be able to get Brandon Marshall straight up for him, and I would totally do that in dynasty. Both are risks, but Marshall much less so imo.
Has nothing to do with Lloyd's trade value and everything to do with JJ's skyrocketting.
zilladog
Footballguy
Let's play the name game.Would you trade this guy for Julio Jones?
Calvin Johnson?
Andre Johnson?
Greg Jennings?
Roddy White?
Miles Austin?
Mike Wallace?
Dwayne Bowe?
Desean Jackson?
Hakeem Nicks?
Reggie wayne?
Steve Johnson?
Mike Williams (TB)?
Brandon Marshall?
Brandon Lloyd???
I love me some rookies in Dynasty, but I wouldn't trade any one of these guys for Julio Jones, except for Lloyd. I think it has everything to do with Brandon Lloyd, and not a whole lot to do with JJ.
I would trade Steve Johnson in a heartbeat for Julio. And Lloyd.
zilladog
Footballguy
I would trade Lloyd for Johnson and Julio. Easy. Not to get too off-topic here but the best you could hope for out of Julio is what Steve Johnson already accomplished last year, and you might have to wait a couple years to see it, even as a Ram. You could say the same about Lloyd but Johnson is just getting his career started and his offense hasn't changed while Lloyd is much older, it took him 8 years to reach anything close to elite status (vs. Johnson's 3) and his offense won't even be close to the same thing. It's very possible that both Johnson and Lloyd are "system" guys but at least Johnson is still in the system.
loose circuits
Footballguy
which is exactly why you don't sell, I think you are contradict yourself when you say to sell and then admit he isn't worth anything.The QB situation in Denver doesn't matter as proven on pg 1 of this thread. Lloyd's #'s were the same with both Orton & Tebow
I'm holding and looking for WR2-3 production. Anything better than that will be gravy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Why is everyone taking this for granted? He's got the same exact Offensive Coordinator. You don't keep the same OC on board when you bring in a new HC unless you want to keep some stability.
zilladog
Footballguy
It's not really a contradiction. As you can see from the rest of this thread, my personal assesment of Lloyd is much lower than the field. If I owned Lloyd, anything I'd get in trade for him would be gravy because I value him so low, and others value him much higher.As for the QB thing....Tebow may very well be a fine QB, but the point is that this team doesn't have much of an identity right now. People are saying how great Orton was throwing Lloyd the ball, but noone even knows if he'll be there. Tebow was seemingly as successful, but the coach was different, the system was different, and it's all completely up in the air. Sure, it will likely clear up as we get towards the season, but more likely than not we won't have a clear idea of what kind of team this will be until at least a few games in. Go ask Jason Campbell how system changes can affect a QB's development.
zilladog
Footballguy
The similarities between the 08-09 pats offensive style and the 2010 Broncos was striking. McD had ultimate control over that team, especially offense (a tactic he learned from Belechick perhaps?). I just find it really unlikely that the 2011 Broncos look the same, regardless of the OC. I just don't buy it.Sorry if I've hijacked the thread
loose circuits
Footballguy
you realize after McDaniels got fired (and McCoy took over play calling duties), Lloyd averaged near 74 yds/game and .5 TD's which equates to 1180 and 8 on the year?'zilladog said:
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
let's not forget that Denver had zero for a running game last year.....I believe they were in the bottom 3 of the league, maybe even dead last.....I realize they may still have the same OC but they just hired a coach who has come from a team who liked to run the ball recently....I think Denver will force themselves to have more of a running game this year and I think that affects the numbers of all the QB's and WR's....what they were doing (throwing) obviously wasn't working....it was great for fantasy but not for winning games...
I think this team will be more balanced this year which will bring Lloyd's numbers way down....personally I think it was circumstance that lead him to having a career year more than anything....it was not unusual for one WR to have prominent role on this team the past few years....heck even Gaffney had a game where he had like 18 catches or something...
plus with a youth movement happening, I wouldn't be surprised to see guys like Decker get more of a chance....the injury to Thomas helps Lloyd's value a little here but there are some other pieces (Gaffney, Royal, etc) that will take some catches....add that to the belief that they have to commit to the running game a little more and I think there is a ton of justification for thinking that Lloyd will not come close to those numbers again....i won't even comment on the pending QB situation....
I'd take Lloyd's stats from last year and expect maybe 70% of that and that would be a ceiling for future years.....
don't get me wrong....he has some skills....watched every Bronco game last year....he made some sick catches...even on balls that were ruled incomplete out of bounds etc.....but I just don't see things shaking down perfectly for him like they did last year....
I think this team will be more balanced this year which will bring Lloyd's numbers way down....personally I think it was circumstance that lead him to having a career year more than anything....it was not unusual for one WR to have prominent role on this team the past few years....heck even Gaffney had a game where he had like 18 catches or something...
plus with a youth movement happening, I wouldn't be surprised to see guys like Decker get more of a chance....the injury to Thomas helps Lloyd's value a little here but there are some other pieces (Gaffney, Royal, etc) that will take some catches....add that to the belief that they have to commit to the running game a little more and I think there is a ton of justification for thinking that Lloyd will not come close to those numbers again....i won't even comment on the pending QB situation....
I'd take Lloyd's stats from last year and expect maybe 70% of that and that would be a ceiling for future years.....
don't get me wrong....he has some skills....watched every Bronco game last year....he made some sick catches...even on balls that were ruled incomplete out of bounds etc.....but I just don't see things shaking down perfectly for him like they did last year....
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
just to add....just because you keep the same OC, that doesn't mean you stay with the same approach/play calling....
in fact MCD was probably more responsible for the approach/play calling/gameplan more than the OC anyway....for all we know the current OC may like to have more of a balanced appoach....
oh and if you can't tell......I'd sell...quickly...
in fact MCD was probably more responsible for the approach/play calling/gameplan more than the OC anyway....for all we know the current OC may like to have more of a balanced appoach....
oh and if you can't tell......I'd sell...quickly...
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loose circuits
Footballguy
why would we assume they are going to have more balance? What has happened to their D to make us think they can keep a game within reach and not constantly be playing catch up?
redBourne
Footballguy
Lloyd has excellent body control and can make some of the most miraculous catches. Highlight reals con really clue you into this fact. I've seen many myself and just been amazed. Watching some of San Fran games over the years I kept waiting for this guy to explode...but it just never happened. His ability to catch the ball in situations where it should be an incomplete pass is why coaches kept giving him chances to excel. Mediocre guys that have promise can always hang around, for this very reason. Coaches hoping to bank on the player finding "it".
However, Brandon Lloyd has never been able to put it together until last year. Infamously known for
The duck, drops in routine plays, and actively pursuing his rap career while still in a niners uniform. I've read before (though this was a few years ago) that he wasn't the best locker room presence either, though no one can say this for sure.
Perhaps he's put all of the past distractions behind him and is really working to become an elite receiver. An interview with the wideout reported that he had a few choice words to say to the previous teams who released him :
However, Brandon Lloyd has never been able to put it together until last year. Infamously known for
The duck, drops in routine plays, and actively pursuing his rap career while still in a niners uniform. I've read before (though this was a few years ago) that he wasn't the best locker room presence either, though no one can say this for sure.
Perhaps he's put all of the past distractions behind him and is really working to become an elite receiver. An interview with the wideout reported that he had a few choice words to say to the previous teams who released him :
You can read into this quote however you want. Some may see it as Lloyd regaining the fire to become a top tier WR. I see it as nothing more than a grudge against teams that it didn't work out for, and not a glimpse of some renewed motivation. Statistically (though I haven't done the research) I would say that this is an outlier season rather than a hint of more successful years aheaed. No one expected VCU to be in the final four and statistically they weren't given much chance. So like VCU, Lloyd, can still meet or even surpass expectations. I'm going to vote otherwise.
ChromeWeasel
Footballguy
Isaac Bruce was a sell high too in 1999. He was 27, injury prone, and had finally had one good year after 2 bad ones. Then he went on to have a career year at 28 yrs old, and followed up with 4 more solid seasons.If you can get great value for ANYONE, you sell him. Screaming SELL SELL SELL for a player that's already under rated isnt going to get you anywhere. You're not going to get top 5 value for Lloyd. You're probably not going to get top 10 value for him. He's more of a buy than anything else, unless you find someone willing to give up a top-tier guy for him. Id much rather hold Lloyd as a value pick with upside than sell him for crap.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Washington is the only team that cut him. He was traded from San Fran to Washington who released him after his 2nd year there. The next year he signed a 1 year contract with Chicago. The next year he signed with Denver.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Lloyd won't repeat last seasons numbers. One year wonder, sell high. And he's no Isaac Bruce. Bruce played in the incredible St. Louis offense with another great receiver on the other side and a hall of fame running back who is one of the greatest running backs to ever play the game and with a great quarterback. Denver has none of these things.
loose circuits
Footballguy
sell high, really? did you ready anyones' posts? everyone wants to sell so his value is minimal. There is nothing high about it...
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Why do you think the title is: Brandon Lloyd - one hit wonder or elite talent?
Because this past season was his best season. Maybe the numbers will help you see the error of your ways.
2010 77 1448 11
2009 8 117
2008 26 364 2
2007 2 14
2006 23 365
2005 48 733 5
2004 43 565 6
2003 14 212 2
As you can see 2010 was his best season. In case you didn't know, that means his value is higher than ever.
Because this past season was his best season. Maybe the numbers will help you see the error of your ways.
2010 77 1448 11
2009 8 117
2008 26 364 2
2007 2 14
2006 23 365
2005 48 733 5
2004 43 565 6
2003 14 212 2
As you can see 2010 was his best season. In case you didn't know, that means his value is higher than ever.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Isaac Bruce was a sell high too in 1999. He was 27, injury prone, and had finally had one good year after 2 bad ones. Then he went on to have a career year at 28 yrs old, and followed up with 4 more solid seasons.If you can get great value for ANYONE, you sell him. Screaming SELL SELL SELL for a player that's already under rated isnt going to get you anywhere. You're not going to get top 5 value for Lloyd. You're probably not going to get top 10 value for him. He's more of a buy than anything else, unless you find someone willing to give up a top-tier guy for him. Id much rather hold Lloyd as a value pick with upside than sell him for crap.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Do you?Selling high is about selling at the height of a player's value, not selling at the height of a player's stats.
If Brandon Lloyd puts up 1200/8 next year his value will be higher than it is right now even though the stats are lower, because he will have proven he's not just a one year wonder.
One man's "sell high" is another's "buy low", and vice versa. There have been dozens of one year wonders that weren't really one year wonders and everyone that "sold high" after year one was actually selling low. Roddy White was ~WR20 after his breakout year and there were plenty of people screaming "sell high" when they could pawn him off at that value. Turns out, selling Roddy White at WR20 value a few years ago was selling very low.
Right now Lloyd is a guy that just put up a top 3 season but has the value of a WR in the WR20 range. If you believe that Lloyd was a one year wonder who will be a fantasy backup the rest of the year, then selling him for WR20 is selling high. If you believe he's a legitimate top 10 or top 5 player going forward, then buying him at WR20 value is buying low.
The question is which of those two each person believes. But either way, arguing with people about the definition of the term "sell high" when you're the only person that's demonstrated a lack of understanding about the term is not the way to approach your argument.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wasn't McDaniels the real OC though? He was the play caller.'ConnSKINS26 said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think anyone can really say one way or the other yet on this, but there are a few flaws with that statement:1. It's only a four (five?) game sample size and one of those games was against Houston, which wasn't just a bad pass defense, it was a historically bad pass defense.2. The team was still running the McDaniel's offense, since no team is going to overhaul it's entire offensive packages during the last 4-5 weeks of the season.3. John Fox is pretty well known as being a conservative coach. If that OC wants to keep his job, he'd have to adjust his style a little at least.
loose circuits
Footballguy
yes, it implies that there is some value. I will concede that there is when you compare to what owners paid (waiver pick up), but I am not even sure you can get WR20-30 value for him. So is that really selling high for a guy that has shown he can put up top 5 #'s? What can you actually get for him that would be considered a sell high? Like I said previously, I'd rather have him on my team as a WR3 than give him away for some bit player...could you even get like an Emmanuel Sanders or Andre Roberts? I'm not sure from the sounds of this thread. I know the team where I own him I'd rather have his top 10-type upside on my roster than some long shot. I think many people are just writing him off as another Antonio Bryant, only problem is he doesn't have the knee issues which put the brakes on Antonio's career.'eaglesfan7 said:
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loose circuits
Footballguy
1) nothing I can do about the sample size, it's all we have. it should be noted that Lloyd put up those numbers while Denver was only throwing for barely 200 yds/game during that time.2) Part of the reason Fox kept McCoy on board was to have some continuity on offense. VP of Football Operations, John Elway, indicated that part of the discussion he had with Fox before hiring him was that he wanted to stay aggressive on offense and not grind it out all the time. In other words they didn't want anything to change with the current offensive system. They also indicated, with the lockout they want to keep the same offensive system because it would be difficult to implement a new one. I'm not sure what you are trying to say, but everything out of Denver disagrees with everyone's assumption that there will be wholesale changes in the system. Here is a good link: http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_17332957?source=rss
3) I think the OC would be more worried about what the VP of Football Operations thinks than the Head Coach since that would be Fox's boss's boss...don't these type of things usually come from the top down? Or are you implying that Fox is just going to not follow through with what he agreed to when he came on board?
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I think what some are trying to say is that Denver was very one dimensional on offense last year and we see where that got them....you would have to think they are going to try and improve the running game which may mean less passing and potentially less passing stats to go around...also the defense should improve through the draft and with the return of Dummervil....
Sabertooth
Footballguy
John Fox has two different guys finish as the top fantasy receiver right? Is Lloyd better than Muhsin Muhammed? I think so.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What I'm saying is that Denver's brass likely knows what they are getting with a John Fox led football team and likely wanted the team to go in that direction. While they can say they want to remain agressive, they were likely well aware of the type of coach Fox is and surely want the offense more balanced. I'm not saying they are never going to pass again, but that they also are not going to be so one dimensional.From Jim Saccomano Vice President of Corporate Communications for Denver Broncos:
McCoy was with Fox for seven years in Carolina, so it's not all that surprising that Fox kept him on board - whether or not it was mandated by Elway.You make a good point about the lockout which does mean that they can't overhaul the whole system, but it surely doesn't mean that they can't shift the focus to a more balanced attack. I think it would be naive to expect Fox to all of a sudden abandon his philosophy - of course with that said, until Jake Delhomme's arm became jello, the Pathers were always quite successful passing the ball, so it's no death knell.
As you said, Llyod probably doesn't fall off the face of the Earth and expecting WR2-WR3 numbers is very reasonable.
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loose circuits
Footballguy
you really think 1 draft and Dummervil is going to change that defense? You realize they are making personnel changes again (from 3-4 to 4-3) and Champ and Dawk are both a year older? This is a D that gave up nearly 400 yards and 30 points per game. Going to take one helluva draft to turn that sucker aroundFixing the running game is one thing that would only help an offense as it could help take the pressure off Lloyd and move the chains which helps just as much as it hurts
loose circuits
Footballguy
I think making those changes (sound defense, improved running game) are a lot easier to talk about than implement. If all of a sudden Denver is going to rush for 2000 yards then why isn't Knowshon a top notch sleeper and potential RB1?At best (towards your argument
), we are just arguing over semantics here and there is evidence to both sides of things although I would probably favor what the VP of football ops says rather than the guy in charge of communications (not sure what his resume is that we'll listen to him). Must have been digging hard to find that one
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm really not making those arguments - just that I think Llyod was in part a compiler and I expect the whole pie to go down a bit and for his slice to therefore be smaller. Personally I wouldn't risk him in a re-draft, but as you said he's a "hold" in a dynasty unless you could find some one that values him.As to the bolded, let's hope so.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
simply trying to say that with the now Elway led changes...I am of the belief that things have to improve in both the running game and on defense...it can't get much worse can it....and with improvements in those areas you could argue that the offensive passing statitics may indeed see a drop off.....and if the crowd favorite Tebow becomes the starting QB, I could still see a conservative style of offense in play even if Elaway isn't saying that right now.....look I hate the Broncos....but I live in CO and am pretty much forced to see every game and listen to nothing but Bronco talk on the radio....I hope they suck again and remain one dimensional and aggressive....I just don't think it will be the case and therefore I don't see Lloyd ever posting numbers close to what he did last year....as well as the Gaffney/Royal/Decker mouths to feed, etc....and as far as Knowshon goes....he could end up being tremendous value where he is probably being drafted right now....who knows
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
and just wanted to add....
if it were me and I owned Lloyd in dynasty, I would be playing up the Thomas injury big time and how that will keep Lloyd and his statistics right where they are...and then sell....but again thats just me....the Thomas injury is something to take advantage of in terms of trying to pump up Lloyd's value right now....I personally don't think it does because I think the other things I mentioned trump it, but others might buy it....
if it were me and I owned Lloyd in dynasty, I would be playing up the Thomas injury big time and how that will keep Lloyd and his statistics right where they are...and then sell....but again thats just me....the Thomas injury is something to take advantage of in terms of trying to pump up Lloyd's value right now....I personally don't think it does because I think the other things I mentioned trump it, but others might buy it....
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
LOL read the entire thread before you get snippy sir....'eaglesfan7 said:
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
'FreeBaGeL said:
...thats just a great post
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
I read the entire thread.
Before you get snippy, realize I was directing that comment at someone in particular, hence the quote.
CompetitiveEdgeFootball
Footballguy
Smith isn't even under contract yet. And he's coming off micro fracture surgery. And he's not even running yet...Just saying...
Just a fantastic post.
