Breakout WRs - historical view (1 Viewer)

[I was in the pool]

So was digging through some stat's the other day and started thinking about Steve Johnson in 2010. He had a surprising year as a low draft pick on a bad team - amassing over 1000 yards and 10 scores. It was his 3rd NFL season (within the range of the typical breakout pattern for a young player), so I dug into the numbers to see how often these players continue to have success (or fade back into fantasy obscurity) - here is what I found:

Since 2005, here are the rookie, 2nd and 3rd year receivers to surpass 1000 yards receiving in a season:

Rookies:

2006 - Colston.

2nd-year WRs:

2005 - Fitzgerald.

2007 - B.Marshall.

2008 - Calvin Johnson.

2008 - Steve Breaston.

2008 - Dwayne Bowe.

2009 - Desean Jackson.

2010 - Hakeem Nicks.

2010 - Mike Wallace.

3rd-year WRs:

2005 - Boldin

2006 - Roy Williams

2006 - L.Evans

2007 - R.White

2007 - B.Edwards

2008 - Jennings

2009 - S.Smith (NY)

2009 - S.Rice

2010 - S.Johnson

In the last 6 seasons, that's a good chunk of the who's who of young receivers in the league. I honestly expected a lot more random names on the list. I recall Breaston being the benefit of Fitz and Boldin drawing coverage and Warner having one of his best seasons on an Arizona team that threw the ball a ton. Other than Breaston, R.Williams is the only other one you can argue was never really relevant after the referenced season.

Fitzpatrick having support to continue to start at QB under Gailey in 2011 is a plus and there isn't much competition for Johnson short-term in Buffalo.

 

[chinawildman]

I wouldn't really say Boldin broke out in his 3rd year... I understand your time period constraints but he should be classified as a rookie breakout.

 

[ZWK]

You can get a longer list from PFR - here are all of the receivers who had at least 1000 receiving yards in their third season.

These are the ones since 1990 who had a third year breakout, meaning 1000+ receiving yards in their third season after getting under 800 yards in each of their first two seasons:

2010 Steve Johnson BUF

2009 Sidney Rice MIN

2009 Steve Smith NYG

2007 Roddy White ATL

2004 Ashley Lelie DEN

2004 Javon Walker GB

2003 Santana Moss NYJ

2001 Marty Booker CHI

1999 Albert Connell WAS

1999 Bill Schroeder GB

1998 Eric Moulds BUF

1997 Rod Smith DEN

1996 Charles Johnson PIT

1995 Curtis Conway CHI

1994 Carl Pickens CIN

Of the 12 that we can judge (leaving out the 2009 & 2010 guys), two (Rod Smith and Roddy White) turned out great and 4 (Pickens, Moulds, Moss, and Walker) had some success, but if he turns out like any of the other 6 (Conway, Johnson, Schroeder, Connell, Booker, or Lelie) that'll be a disappointment.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

I wouldn't really say Boldin broke out in his 3rd year... I understand your time period constraints but he should be classified as a rookie breakout.

Yes.

 

[I was in the pool]

The problem I have with going back that far is that the game changes. I personally want a shorter term for the statistics because the game evolves over time. Comparing Pickens to Johnson is not relevant to me.

 

[ZWK]

The problem I have with going back that far is that the game changes. I personally want a shorter term for the statistics because the game evolves over time. Comparing Pickens to Johnson is not relevant to me.

But if you don't go back farther, you either get stuck with a tiny sample of players or have to include players who aren't that similar to Johnson. The guys who broke out in their first two years don't seem that relevant for evaluating a player after his third year breakout, and they look like a better group of players than the third year breakout WRs. That leaves your list of 8 guys (and Johnson) who had third year breakouts.Looking at those 8, it's too soon to tell on Steve Smith & Sidney Rice. Boldin had a ridiculously good rookie season (101-1377-8) and doesn't belong on the list. Greg Jennings really had a second year breakout, when he went for 53-920-12 in 13 games (fantasy WR 12, 7th in ppg). Lee Evans and Roy Williams had great rookie seasons (compared to other rookie WRs), each finishing as a top 30 fantasy WR with 800+ yards and 8-9 TDs, so they aren't that similar to Johnson either. Braylon Edwards started to emerge in his second year, going for 61-884-6 (fantasy WR 26). Roddy White is the only person on your list who, like Steve Johnson, broke out in his third season after not doing much in the first two.

 

[JamesTheScot]

The problem I have with going back that far is that the game changes. I personally want a shorter term for the statistics because the game evolves over time. Comparing Pickens to Johnson is not relevant to me.

But if you don't go back farther, you either get stuck with a tiny sample of players or have to include players who aren't that similar to Johnson. The guys who broke out in their first two years don't seem that relevant for evaluating a player after his third year breakout, and they look like a better group of players than the third year breakout WRs. That leaves your list of 8 guys (and Johnson) who had third year breakouts.Looking at those 8, it's too soon to tell on Steve Smith & Sidney Rice. Boldin had a ridiculously good rookie season (101-1377-8) and doesn't belong on the list. Greg Jennings really had a second year breakout, when he went for 53-920-12 in 13 games (fantasy WR 12, 7th in ppg). Lee Evans and Roy Williams had great rookie seasons (compared to other rookie WRs), each finishing as a top 30 fantasy WR with 800+ yards and 8-9 TDs, so they aren't that similar to Johnson either. Braylon Edwards started to emerge in his second year, going for 61-884-6 (fantasy WR 26). Roddy White is the only person on your list who, like Steve Johnson, broke out in his third season after not doing much in the first two.

...and a sample flawed in its size SHOULD be irrelevant to you too.Your sample size is so small, I don't think it really tells you anything. Many of the guys on your list are really Johnson's peers, not his predecessors. So you should be asking the same question about them instead of assuming they are the standard against which to judge Johnson. The difference between them and Stevie is perceived talent...which is in some ways probably still tainted by draft pedigree. A higher draft pick that breaks out his 3rd year is doing what's expected so he is presumed to be a good WR. But a low draft pick that breaks out his 3rd year is perhaps overachieving, so we need to check him out.

It still comes back to evaluating his situation and his talent on the field with your eyes. The stats in isolation really don't tell us as much as we think they do.