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Bryce Brown anything to see here? (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth said:
Awful Waffle said:
Most of the speculation here is that the Bills are probably going to let Spiller walk after the season. Not that he's not a great talent - he surely is - but the Bills will balk at the money and some team in the NFL is going to give Spiller a massive contract. It's all just rumors, of course, but it inevitably leads to the idea that the Bills brought in Brown to be a future workhorse. Everyone loves Spiller and he's been a consummate professional, but he's going to cost a ridiculous amount of money.
That's interesting because the Eagles reportedly asked about a trade for Spiller and the Bills said no. If they're going to let him walk anyway, why wouldn't they trade him and get a pick back?
Because they are a high volume team. Everything is fast paced.
I assume you mean the Eagles run a fast paced offense... but that doesn't answer the question of why the Bills wouldn't trade him (rather than let him walk in 2015).

Personally, I don't think Buffalo lets him go... I see Brown more as a Fred Jackson replacement rather than the lone feature back.

 
I look at Brown more as Jackson's replacement too. I don't know that they brought him in to be the centerpiece, more to play a role.

 
I'm always amazed at how people lock in and take such die hard/absolute positions on these types of situations.

In my opinion, Brown is a nice player. He has talent, speed and not a lot of miles on his treads. Buffalo likes to run the ball. A lot, and they have had issues with F Jax and Spiller staying healthy. And both are on the last years of their contracts. Why then is it so surprising that they tried to trade up for a quality back in Hyde? And when that failed, why is it surprising that they traded for a guy like Brown.

I think the argument about what his role will be, this year or next year is moot. It's moot because I honestly believe the Bills don't quite know for sure yet themselves. I believe that Spiller's talent gives him the best chance to be the main cog in a rbbc. His issue is injury and a growing sense of not being a workhorse type of back. Ergo, the importance of depth at the position is vital. I think they brought Brown in and were looking for someone like him to come in and be a part (the size of which not yet being known) of a committee that is going to be very, very busy. I also think Buffalo will asses their rb position after this year, depending on how things shake out this year.

I guess I just don't understand the vehement arguments on either side about what Brown brings to the table this year, next year or why he was brought in. I truly believe the Bills would be happy as clams if they all excelled, their running game was a machine and they have to deal with how to shake it out after making the playoffs in 2014. Some problems are good problems to have...

Just my :2cents:

 
Brown is a one cut power back with good speed but below average vision and wiggle. What system do the Bills employ?

 
In my opinion, Brown is a nice player. He has talent, speed and not a lot of miles on his treads. Buffalo likes to run the ball. A lot, and they have had issues with F Jax and Spiller staying healthy. And both are on the last years of their contracts. Why then is it so surprising that they tried to trade up for a quality back in Hyde? And when that failed, why is it surprising that they traded for a guy like Brown.
if it's surprising to you I'm pretty sure that makes you the only one in the thread surprised by it --- but I don't want to speak for anyone.

 
Awful Waffle said:
Most of the speculation here is that the Bills are probably going to let Spiller walk after the season. Not that he's not a great talent - he surely is - but the Bills will balk at the money and some team in the NFL is going to give Spiller a massive contract. It's all just rumors, of course, but it inevitably leads to the idea that the Bills brought in Brown to be a future workhorse. Everyone loves Spiller and he's been a consummate professional, but he's going to cost a ridiculous amount of money.
That's interesting because the Eagles reportedly asked about a trade for Spiller and the Bills said no. If they're going to let him walk anyway, why wouldn't they trade him and get a pick back?
:shrug: no idea. The speculation could be wrong. None of it is from the organization; they don't usually comment on contract talks. Just radio, newspaper, etc.

 
A recent question on the minimum number of touches that Bryce Brown should see this year comes in around 50 which seems a tad low but its only the floor.

Football Guys take is that sounds reasonable for his reserve role this year but they think he's in-line to challenge as a starter in 2015. I think that is starting to become the consensus take on BB, reserve role this year and challenge to start or claim a much bigger role in 2015.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/131609/fact-or-fiction-bills-offense

Fact or Fiction: Bills offenseJuly, 14, 2014Jul 14
12:00
PM ET
By Mike Rodak | ESPN.com

With Buffalo Bills players set to report to training camp on Friday, let's play a rapid-fire version of fact or fiction, starting with the offense:
... 2. Bryce Brown will receive at least 50 touches this season.

Our take: Fact
Justify it: After trading a fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Brown, there is an expectation that he will contribute to the Bills offense this season. With C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson still in the fold, what's a realistic expectation for Brown's role? He had 128 touches his rookie year (115 carries and 13 catches) and 83 last season (75 carries and eight catches). It would be surprising if he was used that much this season, but 50 touches seems like a more attainable number. That's more than Tashard Choice was used as the third running back in recent seasons, but it's reasonable to assume the Bills will try to cut down on Fred Jackson's touches as he progresses into his mid-30s.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/news.php
Bills | Bryce Brown to see around 50 touches Mon Jul 14, 08:35 PM

Buffalo Bills RB Bryce Brown could see around 50 touches this season, according to ESPN.com's Mike Rodak.

Footballguys view

: Brown could be the starter in 2015, but this year he'll play a reserve role behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Those two are in the final year of their contracts, and the team could turn to Brown next year.

 
 
Playing behind an injury prone Spiller and FJax ill take the over on 50 touches....
Spiller has missed three games in his four years in the league, guy. If he's "injury prone," then so is every RB in the NFL.
I think this has been discussed before. Thinking he is injury prone is the perception, the reality that he's only missed three games is also misleading. He does get pulled a lot throughout games and has played through injuries that have affected his big play ability. I'm not arguing that I think he's injury prone but he still has to prove he could be like a Jamaal Charles and shoulder that full load.

 
I don't think even BUF wants him to shoulder the full load. That's why Jackson is back and prominently displayed, and why Brown is on deck. But CJ's injuries are of a whole different character than someone like Stewart or Nicks, where every ding means at least a couple weeks out of practice and they are always a gametime decision (or worse). He plays through a lot, although I agree he gets dinged a lot and is often limited as a result.

 
Between four years at Clemson and four years in Buffalo, Spiller's career high for carries in a season is 216. Rightly or wrongly, his coaches have consistently refrained from using him as true high volume workhorse. Maybe they're all fools and he would thrive like Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson on huge volume, but that certainly hasn't been the pattern of his career to date. IMO he's a Ferrari like Reggie Bush. A great part of a rotation, but not the car you want to use when running routine errands. I think he's lean and delicate, and not really cut out for being hit 300-400 times in a single season. Whether that's right or wrong, if his own coaches continue to treat him accordingly then that's what his reality will be.

 
Yeah- remember two years ago when all you heard was he was going to get ALL the carries...

He never did...
A few over zealous owners, maybe, but no one with any sense of perspective seriously thought he was taking McCoy's job. Just typical November redraftworkleaguegyys hype in the SP.

 
Between four years at Clemson and four years in Buffalo, Spiller's career high for carries in a season is 216. Rightly or wrongly, his coaches have consistently refrained from using him as true high volume workhorse. Maybe they're all fools and he would thrive like Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson on huge volume, but that certainly hasn't been the pattern of his career to date. IMO he's a Ferrari like Reggie Bush. A great part of a rotation, but not the car you want to use when running routine errands. I think he's lean and delicate, and not really cut out for being hit 300-400 times in a single season. Whether that's right or wrong, if his own coaches continue to treat him accordingly then that's what his reality will be.
Spiller's history indicates he'll continue getting about 200 carries, but that could change. The Buffalo coaches seem intent on providing him lots of touches. Albeit things don't always go according to a coach's vision, evident by Spiller's usage last year; but sometimes the play goes according to the script. Because it hasn't worked out yet doesn't mean it never will; call me encouraged that it could given the coaching staff's continued verbal commitment.

Even Spiller's average workload stands in the way of Brown, significantly reducing his upside. As an owner, you hope Spiller leaves, Fred Jackson retires/sucks, and Buffalo doesn't draft some competition. Otherwise, I think you have a hopeful RB2 on your hands, in a year or two.

Owning Brown makes the most sense if you already have Spiller - in which case you get a hand-cuff for a year (or more), or you doubled down on the situation when/if Spiller signs elsewhere.

 
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I think the Bryce Brown acquisitions speaks more to Jackson's role than Spiller's. Jackson is 33 years old. Some studies have shown that RB production falls off after Age 29 for most RBs. Granted, Jackson's NFL career started at a later age than most, but betting on a 33 year old RB for 200-225 touches seems optimistic. Buffalo was the most run-heavy team in the league and Brown costs little to nothing to acquire in re-draft. I'm buying late and waiting to see what happens.

 
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EBF said:
Between four years at Clemson and four years in Buffalo, Spiller's career high for carries in a season is 216. Rightly or wrongly, his coaches have consistently refrained from using him as true high volume workhorse. Maybe they're all fools and he would thrive like Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson on huge volume, but that certainly hasn't been the pattern of his career to date. IMO he's a Ferrari like Reggie Bush. A great part of a rotation, but not the car you want to use when running routine errands. I think he's lean and delicate, and not really cut out for being hit 300-400 times in a single season. Whether that's right or wrong, if his own coaches continue to treat him accordingly then that's what his reality will be.
This

 
I think the Bryce Brown acquisitions speaks more to Jackson's role than Spiller's. Jackson is 33 years old. Some studies have shown that RB production falls off after Age 29 for most RBs. Granted, Jackson's NFL career started at a later age than most, but betting on a 33 year old RB for 200-225 touches seems optimistic. Buffalo was the most run-heavy team in the league and Brown costs little to nothing to acquire in re-draft. I'm buying late and waiting to see what happens.
And this

 
Bills | Bryce Brown to see around 50 touches Mon Jul 14, 08:35 PM

Buffalo Bills RB Bryce Brown could see around 50 touches this season, according to ESPN.com's Mike Rodak.

Footballguys view

: Brown could be the starter in 2015, but this year he'll play a reserve role behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Those two are in the final year of their contracts, and the team could turn to Brown next year.
If Spiller and Jackson are "this year" and Brown is "next year", I'm wondering if there's a point (other than injury) where the team starts his audition earlier?

 
Bills | Bryce Brown to see around 50 touches Mon Jul 14, 08:35 PM

Buffalo Bills RB Bryce Brown could see around 50 touches this season, according to ESPN.com's Mike Rodak.

Footballguys view

: Brown could be the starter in 2015, but this year he'll play a reserve role behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Those two are in the final year of their contracts, and the team could turn to Brown next year.
If Spiller and Jackson are "this year" and Brown is "next year", I'm wondering if there's a point (other than injury) where the team starts his audition earlier?
The point of auditioning him this year is to see whether they need to address the RB position again in the draft next year. Fred will definitely be gone next year and if Spiller struggles to stay healthy and has another underwhelming year, he could walk too. I think the general idea of the Bills organization is to grab Brown now and get him used to the system behind Fred and just let Fred grind it out one more year. If the wheels come off or if there is an injury to either one, then they can use Brown earlier than they expected.

I think in a perfect world, the Bills would love for Fred and Spiller to play at a high level this year. Sprinkle in some Brown just so he gets used to the system and see how he does. Let Fred walk next year and have Brown take over his role. I think they'd like to keep Spiller and I think they will if he can avoid being dinged up the whole year again.

If you're picking Bryce this year in redraft then you're hoping for Fred's wheels to fall off or get injured. A Spiller injury might make Bryce worthy of a pickup, but I don't think he does much if Fred is there and he's playing like he did last year.

 
I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.

 
I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.
Only problem I see with waiting is that if he looks good in preseason, his value isn't going to drop even if he doesn't play a snap in the regular season because the owner knows what's ahead in 2015.

If he sucks in the preseason/regular season his value will drop, but do you want him then? Surely the Bills would draft a RB next year if Brown doesn't look good.

I agree though, it is a tough time to buy or sell on him.

 
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I have always liked the potential of Brown. I am in a 10 team 10 player keeper so I have owned him but had to trade/drop him in the past. He will be in our FA/Rookie pool this year. Obviously I would think Sankey ranks ahead of him. I would like to think the tier of Mason/Hyde/Hill/West would be ahead of him as well, but at closer look I am kind of digging Brown as much as these guys if not more. Brown seems to have a better chance to a clear cut role than some of these guys. Something to think about for sure........

 
I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.
I would definitely try to get Brown in your situation as well; he would have more value for you than anybody. What kind of price tag does he have in your league? I happily got him for a future 2nd, pairing him with Spiller also.

 
would it be crazy to think the bills wont use him as much this year due to that conditional pick possibly being a 2016 3rd?

and then really see him explode in the 2015 season.

I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to

 
I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to
It all depends on whether they plan to resign Spiller. But it definitely makes sense to run Jackson a bunch, reminiscent of how the Patriots used Blount before they let him go.

 
would it be crazy to think the bills wont use him as much this year due to that conditional pick possibly being a 2016 3rd?

and then really see him explode in the 2015 season.

I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to
I dont think it works like that

 
would it be crazy to think the bills wont use him as much this year due to that conditional pick possibly being a 2016 3rd?

and then really see him explode in the 2015 season.

I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to
Highly doubtful. I think the 1st thing that needs to happen for that pick to be a 3rd is for Stevie Johnson to meet his conditions- if he doesn't, Buffalo gets SF's 4th and sends that to Philly to complete the trade. If he does, then the pick moves to 2016, and it'll be a 4th rounder if Brown doesn't meet the conditions and a 3rd if he does. However, he would have both 2014 and 2015 to meet the conditions, so unless they plan on not giving him the ball in 2015 as well, it wouldn't make sense to hold off next year because of that.

In short, not going to be a factor in his playing time IMO.

 
would it be crazy to think the bills wont use him as much this year due to that conditional pick possibly being a 2016 3rd?

and then really see him explode in the 2015 season.

I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to
Highly doubtful. I think the 1st thing that needs to happen for that pick to be a 3rd is for Stevie Johnson to meet his conditions- if he doesn't, Buffalo gets SF's 4th and sends that to Philly to complete the trade. If he does, then the pick moves to 2016, and it'll be a 4th rounder if Brown doesn't meet the conditions and a 3rd if he does. However, he would have both 2014 and 2015 to meet the conditions, so unless they plan on not giving him the ball in 2015 as well, it wouldn't make sense to hold off next year because of that.

In short, not going to be a factor in his playing time IMO.
gotcha more moving pieces than I understood.

Didnt know it also include Johnson and 2015.

 
I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.
I would definitely try to get Brown in your situation as well; he would have more value for you than anybody. What kind of price tag does he have in your league? I happily got him for a future 2nd, pairing him with Spiller also.
I tried to get him for this year's 3.01 pick. Brown owner never even acknowledged the offer, just saw it and kept on ingoring. I will try to offer a future 2nd like you suggest, but I don't know if the owner is just ignoring me or flaky or what his deal is. I prefer working with reasonable people. Don't like my offer, reject it and let me off the hook already. It's not hard.

 
I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to
It all depends on whether they plan to resign Spiller. But it definitely makes sense to run Jackson a bunch, reminiscent of how the Patriots used Blount before they let him go.
Per the conditional pick, that doesn't enter my thoughts on how the Bills plan to run both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson in their contract years.

Both of them are overpaid and something is going to have to give next year so I agree with EBSteelers that the Bills have nothing to lose in running both Spiller and F-Jax into the ground this year. Why not? They have Bryce Brown backing them up, Freddy is old and overpaid and Spiller isn't the all-purpose RB that he is getting paid like.

In a previous post EBF noted the following stat:

Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:51 PM

It might not mean much, but Fred Jackson's "big run" (20+ yards) percentage was one of the worst of any RB in the NFL last year. Here are the guys who had 200+ carries:

CJ Spiller - 4.48%

Fred Jackson - 0.48%
That shows they are not only different runners but that the Bills use them differently. Its pretty obvious they use Spiller between the 20s and F-Jax near the goal-line. Add CJ isn't a 'great' reciever out of the backfield.

I think their isn't much downside to the Bills feeding both CJ and F-Jax till the wheels come off this year. Seems they are going to have to move at least one of those contracts.
 
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I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.
I would definitely try to get Brown in your situation as well; he would have more value for you than anybody. What kind of price tag does he have in your league? I happily got him for a future 2nd, pairing him with Spiller also.
I tried to get him for this year's 3.01 pick. Brown owner never even acknowledged the offer, just saw it and kept on ingoring. I will try to offer a future 2nd like you suggest, but I don't know if the owner is just ignoring me or flaky or what his deal is. I prefer working with reasonable people. Don't like my offer, reject it and let me off the hook already. It's not hard.
It depends on how deep the league is and format, but IMO 3.01 is a pretty bad lowball offer for Brown. In typical formats, rookie 3rds are coin flips to even make decent rosters much of the time. To put it in perspective, I've had late 1sts turned down trying to get Brown -- and I don't think that's unreasonable on the part of the Brown owners. I wouldn't auto-accept a late 1st in the leagues where I do own him; it would depend on team need and who was available when the pick came up.

 
I mean it would make sense run Spiller and Jax till the wheels fall off and make sure Brown doesnt mean those conditions if he really doesnt have to
It all depends on whether they plan to resign Spiller. But it definitely makes sense to run Jackson a bunch, reminiscent of how the Patriots used Blount before they let him go.
Per the conditional pick, that doesn't enter my thoughts on how the Bills plan to run both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson in their contract years.

Both of them are overpaid and something is going to have to give next year so I agree with EBSteelers that the Bills have nothing to lose in running both Spiller and F-Jax into the ground this year. Why not? They have Bryce Brown backing them up, Freddy is old and overpaid and Spiller isn't the all-purpose RB that he is getting paid like.

In a previous post EBF noted the following stat:

Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:51 PM

It might not mean much, but Fred Jackson's "big run" (20+ yards) percentage was one of the worst of any RB in the NFL last year. Here are the guys who had 200+ carries:

CJ Spiller - 4.48%

Fred Jackson - 0.48%
That shows they are not only different runners but that the Bills use them differently. Its pretty obvious they use Spiller between the 20s and F-Jax near the goal-line. Add CJ isn't a 'great' reciever out of the backfield.

I think their isn't much downside to the Bills feeding both CJ and F-Jax till the wheels come off this year. Seems they are going to have to move at least one of those contracts.
IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.

 
I had the Spiller owner in one of my leagues offer Knile Davis for my Bryce brown and i rejected it. I like Browns situation in Buffalo alot more than davis in KC

 
I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.
I would definitely try to get Brown in your situation as well; he would have more value for you than anybody. What kind of price tag does he have in your league? I happily got him for a future 2nd, pairing him with Spiller also.
I tried to get him for this year's 3.01 pick. Brown owner never even acknowledged the offer, just saw it and kept on ingoring. I will try to offer a future 2nd like you suggest, but I don't know if the owner is just ignoring me or flaky or what his deal is. I prefer working with reasonable people. Don't like my offer, reject it and let me off the hook already. It's not hard.
It depends on how deep the league is and format, but IMO 3.01 is a pretty bad lowball offer for Brown. In typical formats, rookie 3rds are coin flips to even make decent rosters much of the time. To put it in perspective, I've had late 1sts turned down trying to get Brown -- and I don't think that's unreasonable on the part of the Brown owners. I wouldn't auto-accept a late 1st in the leagues where I do own him; it would depend on team need and who was available when the pick came up.
It's a deep, start 2 QB league. So QB's are very valuable and tend to bubble sort typical rookies down by a half round or more. Also thrown in the mix are some surprising waiver wire vets. One of them this year was Monte Ball. I don't think a rookie 3rd is such a bad offer. For perspective, I took Davante Adams there at 3.01.

 
IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.
Blount ran so effectively the Pats decided not to resign him.

Unless Brown greatly out performs the old man, I don't see him getting a significant workload. It makes sense to run your beater into the ground before you put miles on your new car.

 
IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.
Blount ran so effectively the Pats decided not to resign him.

Unless Brown greatly out performs the old man, I don't see him getting a significant workload. It makes sense to run your beater into the ground before you put miles on your new car.
The Pats didn't decide not to resign him, he just got more money from the Steelers. Do you really think they felt Ridley was the better player but they wanted to give Blount the carries so they could save Ridley for the future?

NFL teams just don't do that, for good reason. Who is going to sit there and say "Damn, Brown probably would have punched in that TD and given us the win, but it's better that we save him for next year"? I don't expect Brown to get a significant workload either, but it's because they have several quality options. If they feel Brown is their best option, they aren't going to feed the inferior players over him.

 
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IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.
I don't think the conditional pick figures into things much but I do believe that contracts figure into how teams plan to use players.

In the case of CJ Spiller the team is paying him top-five NFL RB money and last year they said they planned to 'run him till he pukes' which would align with the sort of salary they were paying him but he got injured and wasn't as effective down near the goal as F-Jax was and... well he simply wasn't producing enough to justify his salary.

F-Jax is running solidy, not fantastic but solidy but he will turn 35 in 2015 and he's making a pretty high salary for his age. So I think the Bills have absolutely nothing to lose by running them both hard this year. If either of them get injured they have Brown. If one blows up then they would re-sign them. If one or both under perform they can play hard ball in renegotiations.

I think contracts matter. Probably moreso in this particular situation than others since two good RBs are entering their contract years.

Its an interesting situation considering all of the variables but make no mistake, the contracts will be the key to who stays or goes next year. We know coaches don't look at contracts when drawing up game plans but the players certainly know they will have to run like their hair is on-fire to stay and get extensions.

Bottom-line. I think both CJ and F-Jax continue to start and both have extra-incentive to run hard. Add the coaches won't have the govenor on to keep them fresh by limiting carries. Likely at least one of them is gone next year which positions Bryce Brown well for 2015 and their is always the possibility he gets a shot this year but I think 2015 is his best shot.

 
IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.
I don't think the conditional pick figures into things much but I do believe that contracts figure into how teams plan to use players.

In the case of CJ Spiller the team is paying him top-five NFL RB money and last year they said they planned to 'run him till he pukes' which would align with the sort of salary they were paying him but he got injured and wasn't as effective down near the goal as F-Jax was and... well he simply wasn't producing enough to justify his salary.

F-Jax is running solidy, not fantastic but solidy but he will turn 35 in 2015 and he's making a pretty high salary for his age. So I think the Bills have absolutely nothing to lose by running them both hard this year. If either of them get injured they have Brown. If one blows up then they would re-sign them. If one or both under perform they can play hard ball in renegotiations.

I think contracts matter. Probably moreso in this particular situation than others since two good RBs are entering their contract years.

Its an interesting situation considering all of the variables but make no mistake, the contracts will be the key to who stays or goes next year. We know coaches don't look at contracts when drawing up game plans but the players certainly know they will have to run like their hair is on-fire to stay and get extensions.

Bottom-line. I think both CJ and F-Jax continue to start and both have extra-incentive to run hard. Add the coaches won't have the govenor on to keep them fresh by limiting carries. Likely at least one of them is gone next year which positions Bryce Brown well for 2015 and their is always the possibility he gets a shot this year but I think 2015 is his best shot.
The Bills will have nothing to lose except the most important thing- games. I agree that FJax and Spiller will have incentive to run hard and do well, but it's still going to come down to production. They aren't going to play more just because of their contract situation if they aren't producing on the field.

 
The Bills will have nothing to lose except the most important thing- games. I agree that FJax and Spiller will have incentive to run hard and do well, but it's still going to come down to production. They aren't going to play more just because of their contract situation if they aren't producing on the field.
Both Spiller and Jackson have proven they are good backs so we don't have to go to the argument the Bills would slavishly stick with bad RB production that would cost them games just to justify their salaries.

That doesn't even enter the reasonable thought process of how the Bills will use two talented RBs who are highly/overpaid entering their contract years with a talent yet reasonably/underpaid RB waiting in the wings. I can't add anything more and said my peace. :)

 
IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.
Blount ran so effectively the Pats decided not to resign him.

Unless Brown greatly out performs the old man, I don't see him getting a significant workload. It makes sense to run your beater into the ground before you put miles on your new car.
The Pats didn't decide not to resign him, he just got more money from the Steelers. Do you really think they felt Ridley was the better player but they wanted to give Blount the carries so they could save Ridley for the future?
We could squabble about the Patriot's handling of Ridley v. Blount all day and it will not make a lick of difference regarding the Bills situation. At this point, I think it's safe to say Brown come in as the back up. Unless he performs spectacularly, or Jackson flat out sucks, the roles remain the same.

 
The Bills will have nothing to lose except the most important thing- games. I agree that FJax and Spiller will have incentive to run hard and do well, but it's still going to come down to production. They aren't going to play more just because of their contract situation if they aren't producing on the field.
Both Spiller and Jackson have proven they are good backs so we don't have to go to the argument the Bills would slavishly stick with bad RB production that would cost them games just to justify their salaries.

That doesn't even enter the reasonable thought process of how the Bills will use two talented RBs who are highly/overpaid entering their contract years with a talent yet reasonably/underpaid RB waiting in the wings. I can't add anything more and said my peace. :)
It's not reasonable to think they would leave better production on the bench due to these contracts.

 
I attempted to get Bryce Brown (I own Spiller and FJax) but his price is too high. Brown owner is holding him hostage, but I think I'll wait him out. His value I don't think will get any higher than now, based on the blurbs declaring him a potential 2015 starter. I'll buy Brown or attempt to when the price is right, or not at all.
I would definitely try to get Brown in your situation as well; he would have more value for you than anybody. What kind of price tag does he have in your league? I happily got him for a future 2nd, pairing him with Spiller also.
I tried to get him for this year's 3.01 pick. Brown owner never even acknowledged the offer, just saw it and kept on ingoring. I will try to offer a future 2nd like you suggest, but I don't know if the owner is just ignoring me or flaky or what his deal is. I prefer working with reasonable people. Don't like my offer, reject it and let me off the hook already. It's not hard.
A third seems really low. I have an offer out for two 2s

 
IMO you guys are over thinking this- the Bills are going to play the guys who they feel give them the best chance to win in 2014. The Pats ran Blount because he was very effective, not because they planned on letting him go or wanted to "save" Ridley.
Blount ran so effectively the Pats decided not to resign him.

Unless Brown greatly out performs the old man, I don't see him getting a significant workload. It makes sense to run your beater into the ground before you put miles on your new car.
The Pats didn't decide not to resign him, he just got more money from the Steelers. Do you really think they felt Ridley was the better player but they wanted to give Blount the carries so they could save Ridley for the future?
We could squabble about the Patriot's handling of Ridley v. Blount all day and it will not make a lick of difference regarding the Bills situation. At this point, I think it's safe to say Brown come in as the back up. Unless he performs spectacularly, or Jackson flat out sucks, the roles remain the same.
Lol, you're the one who brought up Blount as a comparison to FJax, but now that you see how silly it is it's irrelevant?

The roles will be based on what they feel gives them the best chance to win- pretty simple.

 
Lol, you're the one who brought up Blount as a comparison to FJax, but now that you see how silly it is it's irrelevant?
The roles will be based on what they feel gives them the best chance to win- pretty simple.
I brought it up, but now I'm burying it; not because it's 'silly and irrelevant', rather there's no sense in derailing a Bryce Brown thread with talk about Ridley and Blount.

 
Well maybe they want to, you know, win games this year and spiller might be their best player.
Do you do this sarcastic schtick every other post? Plus, my point was that Spiller is still part of the Bills' plans and could easily be so again next season.

 

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