Biabreakable
Footballguy
I want to begin by saying that I am not an IDP expert. Although I have been playing in leagues that use IDPs for quite some time now. As a football fan and unorginized player in pickup games I have always favored defense over offense. One of my favorite quotes (forget where I 1st heard this) is that offense is a disease and it only thrives if the defense allows it to. The defense will dictate to the offense what it is allowed to do. And any good defense shouldn't let an offense do crap except maybe keep the ball long enough to punt. That is if the offense is carefull enough with the ball to not have it taken away from them. Of course this was before the No Fun League made rule after rule that favors the offense. Teams used to go through Qb changes a lot more than they do now because defenses would often break them. Still remember with anguish my home town Vikings in the playoffs against Joe Cool and how estatic I was when we finaly knocked him out of the game.. only to have Steve Young replace him and make a huge scramble that lead to the go ahead score when I thought we had the 9ers beat by knocking out Montana.
But anyways not what this thead is about. Just giving a little background on my perspective.
What I would like to discuss in this thread is how do people build a IDP dynasty squad from scratch? Where do we place value on different positions and why? Where does that fit into our approach to offensive players on our rosters and what kind of balance do we look for? This is going to be a work in progress and I will add more thoughts to it as they come to me. Often times spurred from what others may bring to this thread once it gets going.
The 1st thing you always have to look at is what are your scoring rules?
I play in leagues that are not that IDP heavy. They have fairly good balance but offense on average will score 60% compared to defense 40%. I think most people here are familiar with Zealots Field rules and scoring and those are the rules I play by. I know some of you here are much more hardcore IDP enthusiasts, but for me this scoring system has been very thouroughly thought out and offers a very balanced mixture of value for all player positions across the board. While a very strong IDP squad in this format cannot dominate on its own, it can cover a lot of weaknesses.
One of the 1st things that people will notice when comparing FF players on offense to players on defense is that there are a lot more IDPs scoring on a weekly basis than there are on offense. Every snap there are 11 IDP players that can make a play compared to only 6 players on offense. Thats close to a 2 to 1 ratio and because of this plays made by IDPs are fewer than what the skill players have for opportunities. That is without even considering down and distance substitutions made on both sides of the ball which spreads these opportunities even more.
So what your looking for in a IDP player is a player who will be on the field during all down and distance situations. A player who has a prominant role in the defensive scheme to make plays and a player who has the talent to execute when they get those opportunities.
This doesen't mean neccessarily that the best IDP players are the best defensive players on thier team. Sometimes that is not the case at all. But the players you want do need to at least be good enough to keep thier jobs and role in the defense. And idealy be players that will not spend time on the bench costing them opportunities to make plays.
Defensive Linemen
Defensive linemen tend to make the fewest plays out of the 3 major IDP positions. Because they are the players directly engaging with the offensive line and are constantly having to defeat blockers to make plays at all. DEs tend to be the better playmakers than DTs who are more often double teamed. A defensive lineman who consistently makes tackles on a weekly basis and over multiple years of thier career is a special player indeed. Very few Defensive linemen can do this especialy over a span of several years. Those few players who can should be coveted because they are rare talents especialy when you consider most defensive schemes have roles for thier Dlinemen to tie up blockers and disrupt blocking schmes while covering thier responsibility at the point of attack so that another player (ushualy a Lber) is free of interference to make the play. Most of your significant scoring for Dlinemen is going to come from sacking the Qb and in most cases this favors the DEs who are ushualy a teams best pass rushers.
Unless your leagues scoring is very high for sacks Dlinemen tend to be the least valuable of the IDP positions for all the reasons I described above. If you are fortunite enough to get a Dlineman who makes a lot of tackles/sacks they are very valuable because of the VBD #s they provide over the rest who will generaly all be fairly closely packed together.
I think it is always important to keep your eye on free agent Dlinemen because they can be very streaky. And players you have on your roster are often not performing better than some of the free agents available. Be carefull not to cut your players to quickly because as I allready said thier performance can be very streaky. Often times if you believe in your Dlinemans talent you just need to ride out thier cold spells and wait for the plays to come for them. But at the same time don't get too attached to your players if you see a free agent available that is outperforming them. Defensive linemen really take a beating and even the best will have cold spells in thier production that could last a month or more. Sometimes your better off just going with the fresh player who has some fire in thier belly. Look for reasons why your Dlineman might not be performing right now. For example a DE who normaly has a good bookend DE opposite them in a 4-3 defense.. if somthing happens to the bookend DE that might cause offenses to shift thier blocking more to nuetralise your DE and that might be why he is struggling to make plays. Sometimes it is the DT who normaly plays next to him. Or maybe your guy has a minor injury keeping him from playing full strength. Or it might have to do with the teams he has been playing against. If the DE is good they might not be running as often to his side or the offense may be chipping him with a Rb and/or a TE. Keep in mind too that your player might be playing well as normal but might be flushing the Qb or Rbs away from him to other defenders who then make the play.
So what kind of priority/value do people place on Dlinemen?
Normaly for me they are my least valued players. However for Dynasty having one or 2 elite Dlinemen can give you a serious edge against the rest of your compitition. A few years ago when doing an initial draft for dynasty the 1st IDP player I chose was Julius Peppers. He was one or 2 years into the league at that time and had proven himself to be an elite DE but still very young. A franchise DE like Peppers is a very rare thing in the NFL. There are just not very many that have that much talent. Teams in the draft every year spend high 1st round picks hoping to get a player like that but they rarely ever turn out to be as good as hoped for. They might be decent and will still play a lot for that team and be ok but very few actualy can produce consistent pressure and make plays like a Peppers/Strahan/Jason Taylor/Bruce Smith/Reggie White. That is how rare they are that I have to dig into decades of the past they come around so seldomly. So if you get one I would do what you can to hang on to him as an uber elite DE can solidify that position for you for a very long time.
Draft position is not always where these players come from either. Aaron Kampman was a 2nd day pick by the Packers in 2002. He did nothing significant for his 1st 2 years in the league. This is an observation I have made about young DEs is they generaly go have a learning curve of 3 years before they become adjusted to talent at the NFL level. Part of this has to do with strength conditioning and bulking up to be able to play at this level where almost all offensive linemen are 300+ pounds of mean. And pass rushers in college do not typicly have to deal with that and can be successful playing at a lower weight. Another general observation I have made is that good pass rushing DEs tend to be in the 260-275lb range. It is rare to have one who is above 280 and a consistent pass rusher. Those players are few and far between. So generaly you may do well to target players in the 260-275lb range as pass rushing prospects.
Back to Kampman. His 15.5 sacks this year may be fluke. But he has posted better than average tackles for 3 years straight now so that alone is good reason to keep him and keep playing him for the consistent numbers he brings each week. I would generaly rather have a Dlineman who is consistently making tackles while occasionaly getting a sack here and there than a pass rusher who does little in terms of contributing tackles because of that players inconsistency.
So I don't consider Kampman to be an elite player like Peppers is, but he is a solid blue chip player worth hanging on to. Time will tell if he will now be putting up double digit sacks again moving forward. I kind of doubt it but its possible. But he is still a great player to have because of the tackles.
Jared Allen is another player kind of similar to Kampman who was a 2nd day pick but posted great tackle numbers in his second year. If Tamba Hali continues to improve then these 2 will be able to feed off each other and Allen's sack numbers may rise into the double digits again.
Mike Rucker in his prime was somewhat similar to what Kampman has been the past 3 years. He is old and fading now. But I don't think it is coincidence that Peppers numbers fell off after Rucker got hurt this year either.
I wish I had time to focus in on every defense in the league and every player. But honestly I don't. I have to pick my battles here. Players fly under my radar all the time. I can only see so much.
Aaron Shobel, Leonard Little,Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis I consider to be more of a pass rushers than Kampman or Allen, but they have posted pretty good tackle numbers at times. I think part of this stems from how bad the Bills offense was in the case of Shobel. This is somthing you always have to keep in mind also. A IDP playing for a team that is typicly losing time of possesion gets more opportunities to make plays for you because the defense is on the field longer. As far as Leonard Little goes he got TOP ops because of how quickly the Rams offense would score. A DE who plays with a team that scores well will be in more pass rushing situations than a low scoring team as the opposing offense will have to pass more to keep up. When you look at Shobels numbers what you see is that his numbers have been improving but his tackles are down this year because I think they used him in a rotation more to keep him fresh. With Little what you see is his tackle numbers improved as the rest of the defense struggled. Leading to longer possesions. The same situation for Freeney and Mathis as thier defense has struggled to get off the field. But Freeney has played much better prior to this year when the defense is most often playing with a lead.
Some DTs particularly under tackles in a cover 2 scheme can get a lot of sacks and decent tackle numbers. Players like Warren Sapp in his prime, Rod Coleman, Kevin Williams and Shawn Rodgers recently have put up solid numbers. Trevor Pryce did well in his early years as a UT with Denver but did not do as well when moved to DE. That is until he went to the Ravens this year. Same thing happened with John Randle he was very good as a UT for several years but not as good as a DE.
I think the DTs get beat up even more than the DEs do and this wear on them makes thier windows of productive seasons shorter than the good DEs who take less of a beating. I would like to hear peoples takes on this who play in leagues that require DT starts though and what they look for. And do you agree with my observation about them not lasting as long at a high level as DEs do?
Whenever a new coach takes over a defense you have to expect some sort of change in scheme and how that may affect a IDP for better or for worse. Things to look for are if the coach is saying things about Dline gap assignments and focusing on playing the run or if they are talking about shooting gaps and being agressive. Don't read anything into coaches talking about thier defenses needing to be more agressive though. They all say that.
What other things do you look for when a coaching change happens? What about defensive scheme and the IDPs role in it? For example when a player is moved to another position in the defense or when the defense changes like the Ravens moving to a 46. What were the results of the change on IDPs in the past that could be clues to what to expect from similar situations in the future?
DL summary-
1. Look for DEs who post good tackle numbers. They may not be as high of scorers as the ones getting a lot of sacks but the sacks may come. Consistency is hard to find at this position.
2. Be paitient with young DEs. It often takes them a couple years to bulk up and gain 3 down role in the defense. Mark Anderson is a great rookie prospect whos tackle numbers may improve as he gains size and bigger role in the defense.
3. Dlinemen tend to be lowest scoring IDPs except for a select few. Once you have one don't give them up in trade because they are hard to find.
4. Dlinemen are streaky. Don't be afraid to cut a guy you have for waiver wire replacement but be aware that the guy you allready have may be just a game away from putting up numbers like some of the free agents. Try to weed out the flukey players that got lucky TD off fumble recovery but latch on to those who force fumbles getting passes defensed and decent tackle numbers. That shows the player is performing and big plays may be on the way.
5. I ushualy try to use a later pick in rookie drafts to pick a Dlineman every year. Sometimes you can catch lightning in a bottle. Don't be too attached to your rookie though if someone on the wire if performing better.
6. I have rarely found Dlinemen in 3-4 defenses to be good plays. Generaly look for DEs in aggressive 4-3 schemes. Has anyone seen good performance from a 3-4 Dlineman? What do you look for in them?
Linebackers
During a initial draft Lbers are normaly the 1st IDPs taken. Becuase they are ushualy the highest scoring IDPs overall. You can view your Lbers as being similar to the Rbs of the defense. You need to get high tackle numbers consistently from these players in order to have a good defense.
I ushualy will sluff the Lber position somewhat waiting for my opponents to decide when they will draft the 1st IDPs. When they do I may continue to take offensive players still for awhile and target lesser Lbers in good situations later to make up for it. Overall I think I have been fairly successful doing this but it does make me more suceptable to injury or my players being beat out later by younger talent.
Generaly when looking for Lbers you want the MLBs who make the most tackles. Some MLBs are not very fast and not good in coverage though and will be subbed out on 3rd downs. You want the MLBs who play in nickle defenses more than these 2 down MLBs.
MLBs on teams with strong DTs are more free to make plays so pay attention to the players in the middle up front. If the team has weak DTs the MLB is more likely to be blocked by the center or guard releasing from the line of scrimmage. This becomes more/less of a problem if the MLB is below/above 250lbs. A fast MLB without proper protection from the DTs is going to be blocked more effectivly than a larger stronger MLB who can take on blockers more effectivly. MLBs in cover 2 defenses are not always as good as a MLB in a normal 4-3 alignment because they will have deep coverage responsibilities similar to a safety at times and also because the DTs are trying to penetrate the Oline and pressure the Qb instead of holding up blockers and protecting thier gap. This leads to blockers getting on the MLB more often as the DT passes them by.
Weak side Lbers from cover 2 defenses ushualy make a lot of plays because the scheme is designed to leave them more free of gap assignments and coverage responsibilities. Often times WLB can score competitivly with MLBs in this scheme as long as they are talented enough. Derrick Brooks, Lance Briggs.
ILB in 3-4 defenses are a bit tougher to figure out. According to Jene the LILB in most 3-4 schemes functions similarly to the MLB in a 4-3 as the RILB often has to shift out to the weak side of the formation to fill the void made by the ROLB when they are blitzing (happens often). In other 3-4 schemes (such as the Cowboys)the RILB or "Jack" Lber has a more prominent role against the run. When I watch the Cowboys I see Ware blitzing a lot however so I am not sure exactly how this frees the RILB from coverage responsibilities in the flat/middle? When Lawrence Taylor and Peppers were with the Giants Taylor would often blitz as well so would need Jene to fill in more information about how this might work. Right now I don't know. The Patriots have been converting defensive linemen to play the ILB roles with success making them very capable zone blitzers and perhaps having less coverage responsibilities than a traditional ILB in a 3-4 might have.
OLBs in 3-4 schemes are used often as blitzers to generate pass rush. Good pass rushing OLB can get you good points when they make sacks but they tend to be more erratic in thier production and not make as many tackles as a MLB or ILB or even a WLB in a 4-3 scheme. There are some exceptions from the best of the OLBs such as Merriman or Porter.
Generaly strong side Lbers are the weakest of the group to have but not always. It takes a special player to overcome the disadvantage of being in this position however because they ushualy have coverage responsibilities on the TE, Rb or slot Wr and they are also more likely to have to deal with blockers on strong side alignments.
I have listed the different Lber roles in order of preference for me when drafting/trading/looking for free agents. This is a general guideline of expected performance based on defensive scheme however if a player has more talent that can trump the order of role in my preference. For example Karlos Dansby or David Thornton @ SLB.
Having Lbers on teams with poor offense or quick offense leading to TOP disadvantage is good for your Lber production. They will be on the field more giving them more opportunity to make plays. Having a Lber in this situation who is one of the better players on a poor defense helps thier production also. As they are less likely to stop the offense from converting 3rd downs. And therefore have more opportunities to make plays.
Not saying that Lbers from good defenses cannot also be strong IDP plays. But when thier defense forces 3 and out more often it decreases thier opportunities. If they are making big plays like interceptions because of the strength of the defense though, that will of course make up for it.
When scouting Lbers look for players with good instincts rather than just pure physical ability. It matters a lot for this position that has to quickly read if the play is run or pass and anticipate the flow of the play. I have seen so many Lbers who have great measurables but fail to make plays because they are not reading it correctly or quickly enough.
It used to be the sentiment of defensive coordinators that the MLB position was one that took time to learn. Because in most 4-3 defenses the MLB is like the Qb who calls audibles for the defense based on what he sees presnap. The trend for rookie Lbers from my observations was that they would often start out at SLB which had the clearest role and thus easiest to learn. The MLB and WLB have more read responsibilities that DCs did not want to trust to rookies. Well that is now a thing of the past. Free agency in the salary cap era has sped up coaches needs to get more instant results from thier draft picks. And many rookies now start thier careers at the Lber position they are drafted for right away. Therefore rookie Lbers make more of an instant impact now rather than going through a slower development to success.
Because of this in rookie drafts the top Lbers get drafted end of the 1st round-2 round. If enough talented prospects are drafted into favorable situations with opportunities to start they probobly should all be drafted before teams turn to other IDP positions or lesser offensive talents. Because of thier opportunity to make immediate impact for your team. That has not been the case in rookie drafts that I have participated in though. What I have seen is the elite talent (as projected by scouts) Lber Db and Dline prospects are drafted 1st. Ushualy by the end of the 2nd round in a 12 team league. Then the lesser Lbers and other IDPs are taken in following rounds.
When considering the value of IDPs compared to offensive players I think IDPs are typicly undervalued by most people including me. This is somthing I am trying to come to grips with, learn from and correct. When one considers a borderline Lber1 and Many of the Db1s in my scoring system is getting about 8pts/game. That is better than or equal to most Wrs and Rb2s. And the way they are scoring primarily from tackles is a pretty consistent and steady weekly production one can expect from them. Many times this is more stable than how a Wr produces for you. It is not that difficult for an IDP to amass multiple tackles over the course of the game. And then you have the big plays that occasionaly happen and give your steady scoring some spikes such as FF FR PD sacks and interceptions. I think many times the steady production of top level IDPs is more reliable than your offensive players getting good yardage and TDs.
Yet even so the prevolent thinking seems to be that if you have the opportunity to trade IDPs for offensive talent you should do so. IDPs are undervalued because there are so many of them and so they are percieved as being more replaceable. I find myself questioning if this reasoning is sound however when I consider that if I can roster multiple IDPs that perform in the top 15 at Lber and Db I can expect more steady production similar to having many borderline top 12 Wrs performing for me every week. Without as many ups and downs in performance and likely for a smaller investment in resources than it would take to aquire as many high level performing offensive players as long as the perception of offense players being worth more than IDPs prevails.
One thing about IDPs in dynasty in respect to age. Age is always a big issue in dynasty leagues. But when it comes to defensive players, they tend to get better with time. The more experience they have the craftier they become. Of course age always catches up with them at some point and thier physical skills decline to a level that thier bodies cannot do what thier mind is telling them to do anymore. When this happens the change is pretty abrupt. I have seen many IDPs perform at a high level well into thier 30s. So I wouldn't let age 30 scare you off. IDPs are plentiful and free agent replacement or backup could be secured for when your crusty vet does finaly fall off the edge. I don't think it is as important to recycle IDPs based off of thier age as it is for offensive players.
LB summary-
1. Lbers are the most important IDP position to have and therefore the most valuable. T/F?
2. The differing Lber positions are ranked in value:
MLB
WLB (cover2)
ILB (LILB over RILB)
OLB (3-4)
SLB
3. 3 down Lbers are better than 2 down Lbers or specialists. You want the Lbers who play in nickle/dime packages more than the ones who don't.
4. TOP disadvantage is a plus for your IDPs.
5. Lber scoring from tackles (with big play bonuses) can be more reliable than yardage and TDs from offensive players. T/F?
6. Always trade IDPs for offensive players when opportunity presents itself. T/F?
7. IDP production does not decline as much do to age as it does for offensive players. T/F?
Defensive backs
I think of defensive backs as being similar to Wrs in the way the produce numbers for you. They are normaly not as consistent as Lbers but much better than Dlinemen. Defensive backs value should not be underestimated however because they do score close to as much as Lbers do. It is just that thier scoring comes from big plays more than steady tackles so it is harder to predict/expect. A defensive back will have up and down games because of the way the offense chooses to attack the defense. Just like your Wr might have a low scoring day against a good defensive back.. a defensive back might be avoided by the offense for a game when thier better Wr is playing on the other side of the field most of the time or if they have a tendency to run more to one side or another. .
That is at least in the case of cornerbacks. The safeties are different. They are in the middle of the field and have more variety in what thier roles and responsibilities are in the defense from game to game. I will once again list them in the order that I value the different positions keeping in mind that there are some exceptions.
A strong safety is normaly the Db who will score the most. They have more run support responsibilities and therefore make more tackles. Sometimes they will be used as blitzers off the edge or in the middle. Defenses and safeties will try to disguise when they are blitzing most of the time. So that when they do there is a good chance of them getting through unblocked. They also cover TEs Rbs and Wrs. So they have tackle opportunities against these players as well as passes defensed and possible interceptions. A SS is ushualy more of a hitter and most do not have as good of hands as corner backs or FS. Some of them do have good hands though and that combination can make for a elite IDP prospect when they are making plays in so many different ways.
Cornerbacks can be just as good as SS. Some of them make a ton of tackles in the right defensive scheme. Others make a lot of tackles because they are not that good and so Qbs throw to the players they are covering often. And they are making tackles instead of plays on the ball. The cornerbacks who make a lot of tackles will ushualy do so because for one they are very fast for 2 they are playing mostly zone defense and 3rd they like to hit. Not all corners like to hit though and some play more man to man coverage which forces them to follow the reciever rather than be looking to see if the play is a run or not. Cornerbacks rarely get to blitz so they are not as likely as SS to get sacks. But some very aggressive schemes will allow them to. Most of thier big plays will come off of interceptions. They are some of the fastest players on the field so they can score TDs because of this.
Free safeties normaly have the role of the last line of defense. They play center field and are not ushualy in a position to make plays unless the offense is having a lot of success going deep or they manage to make an interception. because of this they are ushualy the lowest scoring of the Dbs and thier scoring is much less consistent because it is more dependent on big plays. There are some exceptions like Ken Hamlin and a few other teams that use thier safeties more interchangably rather than clearly defined roles.
When drafting rookie Dbs many of them can make an instant impact. Rookie defensive backs get tested by offenses a lot until they can prove that there are other weaknesses in the defense less risky than trying to pick on them. They tend to improve on thier instant success from what I have seen as well unless there is a scheme change like we saw with Ed Reed who moved into more of a FS center fielder role in the 46D or a cornerback like Champ who Qbs may try to stay away from.
Defensive backs unlike Dlinemen and Lbers may see the best performance of thier careers in thier early years. As they become veterans thier performance may taper off and never return to as high a level again. Teams will choose to pick on younger less talented players over time thus hurting the overall performance of a veteran defensive back later in thier career. The position is also very dependent on speed except for in primarily exclusive zone schemes. So as a Db ages it may effect them more even losing a fraction of a step in speed. What we have seen recently is teams will move older Cornerbacks to FS. Where thier speed is not as much of an issue. This prolongs the players career but they take a hit in production many times from the role change.
1. Dbs do not score as consistently as Lbers do. T/F?
2. Dbs have down games because they are avoided by the offense. T/F?
3. The differing Db positions are ranked in value:
SS
CB
FS
4. Rookie Cb or poor Cb rule of being picked on. T/F?
5. Dbs are better in the early half of thier careers than in the later half of thier careers. T/F?
It is very important to recognise how a change of IDP performance when role change in scheme occurs, when players change positions/roles in the scheme and what causes this to happen. Moves like this can happen suddenly and may not have anything to do with your IDPs performance but because of an injury or weakness at another position causing the move. For example Andra Davis being moved from LILB to RILB to replace D.Jackson @ RILB or Ed Reed being moved from SS to FS in the 46 or Vilma's switch from 4-3 MLB to ILB in the 3-4. Sometimes these moves are only temporary to cover an injury and will only impact your player until they are moved back to thier former role. Other times the moves are permanent and your IDP will never have the same performance again.
These positional changes can happen when a IDP moves to a new team as a free agent or when a new coach is hired and changes the defense. It's very important to watch these things closely in dynasty as your player who has been performing steadily at a certain level can totaly change when thier role in thier system or the system itself changes. Sometimes the change can have a positive effect as well when your IDP moves into a better role in the defense.
The reason I went in depth about my perspectives of each role of a IDP in the defense is to try to provide background on things you may want to look for when a IDP has a role change.
Vilma for example was a much more productive player as a 4-3 MLB than as a ILB. His strengths as a player are speed and instincts as well as playing with a team at disadvantage in TOP. The move to ILB requires more size and strength to take on blockers than his former role did. This did not fit well with his weaknesses. The offense also played much better and so he also lost the TOP factor in his favor before.
So look at the strengths and weaknesses of players and how thier new roles may fit or not fit them. That can give you clues about what to expect.
Offensive players roles are more clear paths to success than this because it is directly related to thier opportunities to get the ball which is based on thier talent more than the scheme unlike IDP production.
One final thing to say about IDP performance and role change. Your IDP may still be playing the same position/role as before but a change in production can happen because of a new player who steals thier thunder. This is more likely to happen to average IDPs who are producing at a high level because of lack of talent in the supporting IDPs around them. If the defense adds a player who is better than them, even if thier role doesen't change, they may not be getting to the ball as fast as the new player does and those weaknesses in the defense helping you average player to make more plays may not be a weakness anymore.
Conclushions and questions to come in a following post.. I think many of my assumptions/observations may be questionable. I hope that others here can point out these flaws and add on to things I have missed.
But anyways not what this thead is about. Just giving a little background on my perspective.
What I would like to discuss in this thread is how do people build a IDP dynasty squad from scratch? Where do we place value on different positions and why? Where does that fit into our approach to offensive players on our rosters and what kind of balance do we look for? This is going to be a work in progress and I will add more thoughts to it as they come to me. Often times spurred from what others may bring to this thread once it gets going.
The 1st thing you always have to look at is what are your scoring rules?
I play in leagues that are not that IDP heavy. They have fairly good balance but offense on average will score 60% compared to defense 40%. I think most people here are familiar with Zealots Field rules and scoring and those are the rules I play by. I know some of you here are much more hardcore IDP enthusiasts, but for me this scoring system has been very thouroughly thought out and offers a very balanced mixture of value for all player positions across the board. While a very strong IDP squad in this format cannot dominate on its own, it can cover a lot of weaknesses.
One of the 1st things that people will notice when comparing FF players on offense to players on defense is that there are a lot more IDPs scoring on a weekly basis than there are on offense. Every snap there are 11 IDP players that can make a play compared to only 6 players on offense. Thats close to a 2 to 1 ratio and because of this plays made by IDPs are fewer than what the skill players have for opportunities. That is without even considering down and distance substitutions made on both sides of the ball which spreads these opportunities even more.
So what your looking for in a IDP player is a player who will be on the field during all down and distance situations. A player who has a prominant role in the defensive scheme to make plays and a player who has the talent to execute when they get those opportunities.
This doesen't mean neccessarily that the best IDP players are the best defensive players on thier team. Sometimes that is not the case at all. But the players you want do need to at least be good enough to keep thier jobs and role in the defense. And idealy be players that will not spend time on the bench costing them opportunities to make plays.
Defensive Linemen
Defensive linemen tend to make the fewest plays out of the 3 major IDP positions. Because they are the players directly engaging with the offensive line and are constantly having to defeat blockers to make plays at all. DEs tend to be the better playmakers than DTs who are more often double teamed. A defensive lineman who consistently makes tackles on a weekly basis and over multiple years of thier career is a special player indeed. Very few Defensive linemen can do this especialy over a span of several years. Those few players who can should be coveted because they are rare talents especialy when you consider most defensive schemes have roles for thier Dlinemen to tie up blockers and disrupt blocking schmes while covering thier responsibility at the point of attack so that another player (ushualy a Lber) is free of interference to make the play. Most of your significant scoring for Dlinemen is going to come from sacking the Qb and in most cases this favors the DEs who are ushualy a teams best pass rushers.
Unless your leagues scoring is very high for sacks Dlinemen tend to be the least valuable of the IDP positions for all the reasons I described above. If you are fortunite enough to get a Dlineman who makes a lot of tackles/sacks they are very valuable because of the VBD #s they provide over the rest who will generaly all be fairly closely packed together.
I think it is always important to keep your eye on free agent Dlinemen because they can be very streaky. And players you have on your roster are often not performing better than some of the free agents available. Be carefull not to cut your players to quickly because as I allready said thier performance can be very streaky. Often times if you believe in your Dlinemans talent you just need to ride out thier cold spells and wait for the plays to come for them. But at the same time don't get too attached to your players if you see a free agent available that is outperforming them. Defensive linemen really take a beating and even the best will have cold spells in thier production that could last a month or more. Sometimes your better off just going with the fresh player who has some fire in thier belly. Look for reasons why your Dlineman might not be performing right now. For example a DE who normaly has a good bookend DE opposite them in a 4-3 defense.. if somthing happens to the bookend DE that might cause offenses to shift thier blocking more to nuetralise your DE and that might be why he is struggling to make plays. Sometimes it is the DT who normaly plays next to him. Or maybe your guy has a minor injury keeping him from playing full strength. Or it might have to do with the teams he has been playing against. If the DE is good they might not be running as often to his side or the offense may be chipping him with a Rb and/or a TE. Keep in mind too that your player might be playing well as normal but might be flushing the Qb or Rbs away from him to other defenders who then make the play.
So what kind of priority/value do people place on Dlinemen?
Normaly for me they are my least valued players. However for Dynasty having one or 2 elite Dlinemen can give you a serious edge against the rest of your compitition. A few years ago when doing an initial draft for dynasty the 1st IDP player I chose was Julius Peppers. He was one or 2 years into the league at that time and had proven himself to be an elite DE but still very young. A franchise DE like Peppers is a very rare thing in the NFL. There are just not very many that have that much talent. Teams in the draft every year spend high 1st round picks hoping to get a player like that but they rarely ever turn out to be as good as hoped for. They might be decent and will still play a lot for that team and be ok but very few actualy can produce consistent pressure and make plays like a Peppers/Strahan/Jason Taylor/Bruce Smith/Reggie White. That is how rare they are that I have to dig into decades of the past they come around so seldomly. So if you get one I would do what you can to hang on to him as an uber elite DE can solidify that position for you for a very long time.
Draft position is not always where these players come from either. Aaron Kampman was a 2nd day pick by the Packers in 2002. He did nothing significant for his 1st 2 years in the league. This is an observation I have made about young DEs is they generaly go have a learning curve of 3 years before they become adjusted to talent at the NFL level. Part of this has to do with strength conditioning and bulking up to be able to play at this level where almost all offensive linemen are 300+ pounds of mean. And pass rushers in college do not typicly have to deal with that and can be successful playing at a lower weight. Another general observation I have made is that good pass rushing DEs tend to be in the 260-275lb range. It is rare to have one who is above 280 and a consistent pass rusher. Those players are few and far between. So generaly you may do well to target players in the 260-275lb range as pass rushing prospects.
Back to Kampman. His 15.5 sacks this year may be fluke. But he has posted better than average tackles for 3 years straight now so that alone is good reason to keep him and keep playing him for the consistent numbers he brings each week. I would generaly rather have a Dlineman who is consistently making tackles while occasionaly getting a sack here and there than a pass rusher who does little in terms of contributing tackles because of that players inconsistency.
So I don't consider Kampman to be an elite player like Peppers is, but he is a solid blue chip player worth hanging on to. Time will tell if he will now be putting up double digit sacks again moving forward. I kind of doubt it but its possible. But he is still a great player to have because of the tackles.
Jared Allen is another player kind of similar to Kampman who was a 2nd day pick but posted great tackle numbers in his second year. If Tamba Hali continues to improve then these 2 will be able to feed off each other and Allen's sack numbers may rise into the double digits again.
Mike Rucker in his prime was somewhat similar to what Kampman has been the past 3 years. He is old and fading now. But I don't think it is coincidence that Peppers numbers fell off after Rucker got hurt this year either.
I wish I had time to focus in on every defense in the league and every player. But honestly I don't. I have to pick my battles here. Players fly under my radar all the time. I can only see so much.
Aaron Shobel, Leonard Little,Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis I consider to be more of a pass rushers than Kampman or Allen, but they have posted pretty good tackle numbers at times. I think part of this stems from how bad the Bills offense was in the case of Shobel. This is somthing you always have to keep in mind also. A IDP playing for a team that is typicly losing time of possesion gets more opportunities to make plays for you because the defense is on the field longer. As far as Leonard Little goes he got TOP ops because of how quickly the Rams offense would score. A DE who plays with a team that scores well will be in more pass rushing situations than a low scoring team as the opposing offense will have to pass more to keep up. When you look at Shobels numbers what you see is that his numbers have been improving but his tackles are down this year because I think they used him in a rotation more to keep him fresh. With Little what you see is his tackle numbers improved as the rest of the defense struggled. Leading to longer possesions. The same situation for Freeney and Mathis as thier defense has struggled to get off the field. But Freeney has played much better prior to this year when the defense is most often playing with a lead.
Some DTs particularly under tackles in a cover 2 scheme can get a lot of sacks and decent tackle numbers. Players like Warren Sapp in his prime, Rod Coleman, Kevin Williams and Shawn Rodgers recently have put up solid numbers. Trevor Pryce did well in his early years as a UT with Denver but did not do as well when moved to DE. That is until he went to the Ravens this year. Same thing happened with John Randle he was very good as a UT for several years but not as good as a DE.
I think the DTs get beat up even more than the DEs do and this wear on them makes thier windows of productive seasons shorter than the good DEs who take less of a beating. I would like to hear peoples takes on this who play in leagues that require DT starts though and what they look for. And do you agree with my observation about them not lasting as long at a high level as DEs do?
Whenever a new coach takes over a defense you have to expect some sort of change in scheme and how that may affect a IDP for better or for worse. Things to look for are if the coach is saying things about Dline gap assignments and focusing on playing the run or if they are talking about shooting gaps and being agressive. Don't read anything into coaches talking about thier defenses needing to be more agressive though. They all say that.
What other things do you look for when a coaching change happens? What about defensive scheme and the IDPs role in it? For example when a player is moved to another position in the defense or when the defense changes like the Ravens moving to a 46. What were the results of the change on IDPs in the past that could be clues to what to expect from similar situations in the future?
DL summary-
1. Look for DEs who post good tackle numbers. They may not be as high of scorers as the ones getting a lot of sacks but the sacks may come. Consistency is hard to find at this position.
2. Be paitient with young DEs. It often takes them a couple years to bulk up and gain 3 down role in the defense. Mark Anderson is a great rookie prospect whos tackle numbers may improve as he gains size and bigger role in the defense.
3. Dlinemen tend to be lowest scoring IDPs except for a select few. Once you have one don't give them up in trade because they are hard to find.
4. Dlinemen are streaky. Don't be afraid to cut a guy you have for waiver wire replacement but be aware that the guy you allready have may be just a game away from putting up numbers like some of the free agents. Try to weed out the flukey players that got lucky TD off fumble recovery but latch on to those who force fumbles getting passes defensed and decent tackle numbers. That shows the player is performing and big plays may be on the way.
5. I ushualy try to use a later pick in rookie drafts to pick a Dlineman every year. Sometimes you can catch lightning in a bottle. Don't be too attached to your rookie though if someone on the wire if performing better.
6. I have rarely found Dlinemen in 3-4 defenses to be good plays. Generaly look for DEs in aggressive 4-3 schemes. Has anyone seen good performance from a 3-4 Dlineman? What do you look for in them?
Linebackers
During a initial draft Lbers are normaly the 1st IDPs taken. Becuase they are ushualy the highest scoring IDPs overall. You can view your Lbers as being similar to the Rbs of the defense. You need to get high tackle numbers consistently from these players in order to have a good defense.
I ushualy will sluff the Lber position somewhat waiting for my opponents to decide when they will draft the 1st IDPs. When they do I may continue to take offensive players still for awhile and target lesser Lbers in good situations later to make up for it. Overall I think I have been fairly successful doing this but it does make me more suceptable to injury or my players being beat out later by younger talent.
Generaly when looking for Lbers you want the MLBs who make the most tackles. Some MLBs are not very fast and not good in coverage though and will be subbed out on 3rd downs. You want the MLBs who play in nickle defenses more than these 2 down MLBs.
MLBs on teams with strong DTs are more free to make plays so pay attention to the players in the middle up front. If the team has weak DTs the MLB is more likely to be blocked by the center or guard releasing from the line of scrimmage. This becomes more/less of a problem if the MLB is below/above 250lbs. A fast MLB without proper protection from the DTs is going to be blocked more effectivly than a larger stronger MLB who can take on blockers more effectivly. MLBs in cover 2 defenses are not always as good as a MLB in a normal 4-3 alignment because they will have deep coverage responsibilities similar to a safety at times and also because the DTs are trying to penetrate the Oline and pressure the Qb instead of holding up blockers and protecting thier gap. This leads to blockers getting on the MLB more often as the DT passes them by.
Weak side Lbers from cover 2 defenses ushualy make a lot of plays because the scheme is designed to leave them more free of gap assignments and coverage responsibilities. Often times WLB can score competitivly with MLBs in this scheme as long as they are talented enough. Derrick Brooks, Lance Briggs.
ILB in 3-4 defenses are a bit tougher to figure out. According to Jene the LILB in most 3-4 schemes functions similarly to the MLB in a 4-3 as the RILB often has to shift out to the weak side of the formation to fill the void made by the ROLB when they are blitzing (happens often). In other 3-4 schemes (such as the Cowboys)the RILB or "Jack" Lber has a more prominent role against the run. When I watch the Cowboys I see Ware blitzing a lot however so I am not sure exactly how this frees the RILB from coverage responsibilities in the flat/middle? When Lawrence Taylor and Peppers were with the Giants Taylor would often blitz as well so would need Jene to fill in more information about how this might work. Right now I don't know. The Patriots have been converting defensive linemen to play the ILB roles with success making them very capable zone blitzers and perhaps having less coverage responsibilities than a traditional ILB in a 3-4 might have.
OLBs in 3-4 schemes are used often as blitzers to generate pass rush. Good pass rushing OLB can get you good points when they make sacks but they tend to be more erratic in thier production and not make as many tackles as a MLB or ILB or even a WLB in a 4-3 scheme. There are some exceptions from the best of the OLBs such as Merriman or Porter.
Generaly strong side Lbers are the weakest of the group to have but not always. It takes a special player to overcome the disadvantage of being in this position however because they ushualy have coverage responsibilities on the TE, Rb or slot Wr and they are also more likely to have to deal with blockers on strong side alignments.
I have listed the different Lber roles in order of preference for me when drafting/trading/looking for free agents. This is a general guideline of expected performance based on defensive scheme however if a player has more talent that can trump the order of role in my preference. For example Karlos Dansby or David Thornton @ SLB.
Having Lbers on teams with poor offense or quick offense leading to TOP disadvantage is good for your Lber production. They will be on the field more giving them more opportunity to make plays. Having a Lber in this situation who is one of the better players on a poor defense helps thier production also. As they are less likely to stop the offense from converting 3rd downs. And therefore have more opportunities to make plays.
Not saying that Lbers from good defenses cannot also be strong IDP plays. But when thier defense forces 3 and out more often it decreases thier opportunities. If they are making big plays like interceptions because of the strength of the defense though, that will of course make up for it.
When scouting Lbers look for players with good instincts rather than just pure physical ability. It matters a lot for this position that has to quickly read if the play is run or pass and anticipate the flow of the play. I have seen so many Lbers who have great measurables but fail to make plays because they are not reading it correctly or quickly enough.
It used to be the sentiment of defensive coordinators that the MLB position was one that took time to learn. Because in most 4-3 defenses the MLB is like the Qb who calls audibles for the defense based on what he sees presnap. The trend for rookie Lbers from my observations was that they would often start out at SLB which had the clearest role and thus easiest to learn. The MLB and WLB have more read responsibilities that DCs did not want to trust to rookies. Well that is now a thing of the past. Free agency in the salary cap era has sped up coaches needs to get more instant results from thier draft picks. And many rookies now start thier careers at the Lber position they are drafted for right away. Therefore rookie Lbers make more of an instant impact now rather than going through a slower development to success.
Because of this in rookie drafts the top Lbers get drafted end of the 1st round-2 round. If enough talented prospects are drafted into favorable situations with opportunities to start they probobly should all be drafted before teams turn to other IDP positions or lesser offensive talents. Because of thier opportunity to make immediate impact for your team. That has not been the case in rookie drafts that I have participated in though. What I have seen is the elite talent (as projected by scouts) Lber Db and Dline prospects are drafted 1st. Ushualy by the end of the 2nd round in a 12 team league. Then the lesser Lbers and other IDPs are taken in following rounds.
When considering the value of IDPs compared to offensive players I think IDPs are typicly undervalued by most people including me. This is somthing I am trying to come to grips with, learn from and correct. When one considers a borderline Lber1 and Many of the Db1s in my scoring system is getting about 8pts/game. That is better than or equal to most Wrs and Rb2s. And the way they are scoring primarily from tackles is a pretty consistent and steady weekly production one can expect from them. Many times this is more stable than how a Wr produces for you. It is not that difficult for an IDP to amass multiple tackles over the course of the game. And then you have the big plays that occasionaly happen and give your steady scoring some spikes such as FF FR PD sacks and interceptions. I think many times the steady production of top level IDPs is more reliable than your offensive players getting good yardage and TDs.
Yet even so the prevolent thinking seems to be that if you have the opportunity to trade IDPs for offensive talent you should do so. IDPs are undervalued because there are so many of them and so they are percieved as being more replaceable. I find myself questioning if this reasoning is sound however when I consider that if I can roster multiple IDPs that perform in the top 15 at Lber and Db I can expect more steady production similar to having many borderline top 12 Wrs performing for me every week. Without as many ups and downs in performance and likely for a smaller investment in resources than it would take to aquire as many high level performing offensive players as long as the perception of offense players being worth more than IDPs prevails.
One thing about IDPs in dynasty in respect to age. Age is always a big issue in dynasty leagues. But when it comes to defensive players, they tend to get better with time. The more experience they have the craftier they become. Of course age always catches up with them at some point and thier physical skills decline to a level that thier bodies cannot do what thier mind is telling them to do anymore. When this happens the change is pretty abrupt. I have seen many IDPs perform at a high level well into thier 30s. So I wouldn't let age 30 scare you off. IDPs are plentiful and free agent replacement or backup could be secured for when your crusty vet does finaly fall off the edge. I don't think it is as important to recycle IDPs based off of thier age as it is for offensive players.
LB summary-
1. Lbers are the most important IDP position to have and therefore the most valuable. T/F?
2. The differing Lber positions are ranked in value:
MLB
WLB (cover2)
ILB (LILB over RILB)
OLB (3-4)
SLB
3. 3 down Lbers are better than 2 down Lbers or specialists. You want the Lbers who play in nickle/dime packages more than the ones who don't.
4. TOP disadvantage is a plus for your IDPs.
5. Lber scoring from tackles (with big play bonuses) can be more reliable than yardage and TDs from offensive players. T/F?
6. Always trade IDPs for offensive players when opportunity presents itself. T/F?
7. IDP production does not decline as much do to age as it does for offensive players. T/F?
Defensive backs
I think of defensive backs as being similar to Wrs in the way the produce numbers for you. They are normaly not as consistent as Lbers but much better than Dlinemen. Defensive backs value should not be underestimated however because they do score close to as much as Lbers do. It is just that thier scoring comes from big plays more than steady tackles so it is harder to predict/expect. A defensive back will have up and down games because of the way the offense chooses to attack the defense. Just like your Wr might have a low scoring day against a good defensive back.. a defensive back might be avoided by the offense for a game when thier better Wr is playing on the other side of the field most of the time or if they have a tendency to run more to one side or another. .
That is at least in the case of cornerbacks. The safeties are different. They are in the middle of the field and have more variety in what thier roles and responsibilities are in the defense from game to game. I will once again list them in the order that I value the different positions keeping in mind that there are some exceptions.
A strong safety is normaly the Db who will score the most. They have more run support responsibilities and therefore make more tackles. Sometimes they will be used as blitzers off the edge or in the middle. Defenses and safeties will try to disguise when they are blitzing most of the time. So that when they do there is a good chance of them getting through unblocked. They also cover TEs Rbs and Wrs. So they have tackle opportunities against these players as well as passes defensed and possible interceptions. A SS is ushualy more of a hitter and most do not have as good of hands as corner backs or FS. Some of them do have good hands though and that combination can make for a elite IDP prospect when they are making plays in so many different ways.
Cornerbacks can be just as good as SS. Some of them make a ton of tackles in the right defensive scheme. Others make a lot of tackles because they are not that good and so Qbs throw to the players they are covering often. And they are making tackles instead of plays on the ball. The cornerbacks who make a lot of tackles will ushualy do so because for one they are very fast for 2 they are playing mostly zone defense and 3rd they like to hit. Not all corners like to hit though and some play more man to man coverage which forces them to follow the reciever rather than be looking to see if the play is a run or not. Cornerbacks rarely get to blitz so they are not as likely as SS to get sacks. But some very aggressive schemes will allow them to. Most of thier big plays will come off of interceptions. They are some of the fastest players on the field so they can score TDs because of this.
Free safeties normaly have the role of the last line of defense. They play center field and are not ushualy in a position to make plays unless the offense is having a lot of success going deep or they manage to make an interception. because of this they are ushualy the lowest scoring of the Dbs and thier scoring is much less consistent because it is more dependent on big plays. There are some exceptions like Ken Hamlin and a few other teams that use thier safeties more interchangably rather than clearly defined roles.
When drafting rookie Dbs many of them can make an instant impact. Rookie defensive backs get tested by offenses a lot until they can prove that there are other weaknesses in the defense less risky than trying to pick on them. They tend to improve on thier instant success from what I have seen as well unless there is a scheme change like we saw with Ed Reed who moved into more of a FS center fielder role in the 46D or a cornerback like Champ who Qbs may try to stay away from.
Defensive backs unlike Dlinemen and Lbers may see the best performance of thier careers in thier early years. As they become veterans thier performance may taper off and never return to as high a level again. Teams will choose to pick on younger less talented players over time thus hurting the overall performance of a veteran defensive back later in thier career. The position is also very dependent on speed except for in primarily exclusive zone schemes. So as a Db ages it may effect them more even losing a fraction of a step in speed. What we have seen recently is teams will move older Cornerbacks to FS. Where thier speed is not as much of an issue. This prolongs the players career but they take a hit in production many times from the role change.
1. Dbs do not score as consistently as Lbers do. T/F?
2. Dbs have down games because they are avoided by the offense. T/F?
3. The differing Db positions are ranked in value:
SS
CB
FS
4. Rookie Cb or poor Cb rule of being picked on. T/F?
5. Dbs are better in the early half of thier careers than in the later half of thier careers. T/F?
It is very important to recognise how a change of IDP performance when role change in scheme occurs, when players change positions/roles in the scheme and what causes this to happen. Moves like this can happen suddenly and may not have anything to do with your IDPs performance but because of an injury or weakness at another position causing the move. For example Andra Davis being moved from LILB to RILB to replace D.Jackson @ RILB or Ed Reed being moved from SS to FS in the 46 or Vilma's switch from 4-3 MLB to ILB in the 3-4. Sometimes these moves are only temporary to cover an injury and will only impact your player until they are moved back to thier former role. Other times the moves are permanent and your IDP will never have the same performance again.
These positional changes can happen when a IDP moves to a new team as a free agent or when a new coach is hired and changes the defense. It's very important to watch these things closely in dynasty as your player who has been performing steadily at a certain level can totaly change when thier role in thier system or the system itself changes. Sometimes the change can have a positive effect as well when your IDP moves into a better role in the defense.
The reason I went in depth about my perspectives of each role of a IDP in the defense is to try to provide background on things you may want to look for when a IDP has a role change.
Vilma for example was a much more productive player as a 4-3 MLB than as a ILB. His strengths as a player are speed and instincts as well as playing with a team at disadvantage in TOP. The move to ILB requires more size and strength to take on blockers than his former role did. This did not fit well with his weaknesses. The offense also played much better and so he also lost the TOP factor in his favor before.
So look at the strengths and weaknesses of players and how thier new roles may fit or not fit them. That can give you clues about what to expect.
Offensive players roles are more clear paths to success than this because it is directly related to thier opportunities to get the ball which is based on thier talent more than the scheme unlike IDP production.
One final thing to say about IDP performance and role change. Your IDP may still be playing the same position/role as before but a change in production can happen because of a new player who steals thier thunder. This is more likely to happen to average IDPs who are producing at a high level because of lack of talent in the supporting IDPs around them. If the defense adds a player who is better than them, even if thier role doesen't change, they may not be getting to the ball as fast as the new player does and those weaknesses in the defense helping you average player to make more plays may not be a weakness anymore.
Conclushions and questions to come in a following post.. I think many of my assumptions/observations may be questionable. I hope that others here can point out these flaws and add on to things I have missed.
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