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Buy Low/Sell High OTA edition (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
Hey Bloom,I was wondering if you could expand on your Anquan Boldin comments? I envision him as the clear #1 there in Baltimore, with Mason playing the "reliable possession receiver" role and moving the sticks, certainly, but not with Mason remaining the focal point of the Ravens' passing game.
Please comment further on why you feel that Boldin may be the team's #2 during 2010?
Mason has two years of almost flawless chemistry and timing with Flacco, and the young QB is going to continue to look to him when the bullets are flying. Boldin is also missing OTAs, and his Arizona numbers are setting unrealistic expectations for his production. I don't think it's a lock that Boldin even outproduces Mason this year, and it's especially dicey to project him as a WR1, or even a high-end WR2. He's being overvalued on reputation and past production.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Bloom,
I am happy to see Arian Foster on your list. I just picked him up, DEEP in the draft. Is your lack of confidence in Tate, dependant on your view of him out of college? I wasn't a big fan of Tate and was shocked that he went so high. I worry that the Texans don't share our view of Tate and will give him the opportunities needed to justify his draft slot.
What are the chances Foster actually wins the job?
I am happy to see Arian Foster on your list. I just picked him up, DEEP in the draft. Is your lack of confidence in Tate, dependant on your view of him out of college? I wasn't a big fan of Tate and was shocked that he went so high. I worry that the Texans don't share our view of Tate and will give him the opportunities needed to justify his draft slot.
What are the chances Foster actually wins the job?
That definitely plays into it - not being impressed with Tate, but Foster's play in week 16-17, his progress in the offseason, and the praise from Kubiak make it an easier call. I would say right now it's at least 50/50 that Foster starts week 1. That doesn't mean Tate won't see significant work in any scenario, but Foster isn't going to go away quietly.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
I love Mason, but my Devil's Advocate on Boldin is that he's a short range option that will get a lot of love on crossing routes, short outs, flat routes, hitches, and screens that was a lot of his game in AZ. We're not talking about more sophisticated skinny posts, post corners, deep sideline routes, etc. where a QB has to understand when and when not to trust his teammate (ala Warner talking about learning to work with Fitzgerald, who now has to work with Leinart and might suffer now that he has a QB that might not have the confidence or arm to squeeze the ball in to Fitz or throw Fitz open) I think Boldin could very well be a 60-70 catch player without a long-term rapport with Flacco. Moss, T.O., Mason, and several other receivers switching teams have come in and done well without more than a few months of rapport. I think Boldin is the style of receiver where his route strengths might not be as critical to needing additional rapport.
Just a thought to ponder and see what you think back.
As always, enjoyed seeing your thoughts on players.
mrip541
Footballguy
Considering the team doubts about Jamaal Charles' durability I'm surprised that the news on Thomas Jones sounds so dire. Doesn't look like Bloom is arguing that Charles is going to be Ray Rice of 2010 but it does look like he is arguing that Jones will be a clear backup, which I have a hard time believing. If Charles is getting 12-15 rushes a game the rest need to go somewhere.
BlueBandit24
Footballguy
I love the call on Hakeem Nicks. He is a second-year receiver that some people seem to be sleeping on. Steve Smith is a solid receiver, but I feel he is best used as a complimentary and I firmly believe 2009 will stand as his career year; Eli leaned on him with a green receiving corps behind him. I expect Nicks to take over as the #1 receiver in New York this year and become a WR1 for many years.
n20
Footballguy
Aside from DHB working hard, I'm not sure what positive buzz you're talking about. Last I heard was from a beat writer for the Raiders on the radio saying that he looked good running during OTA's but still dropped many passes... that's trouble for a receiver no matter how you cut it.
n20
Footballguy
Love the write up, Sig. I'm wondering why you left out Beanie Wells from your sell high list as it seems you're more bearish on Beanie than most. Personally, I think Beanie takes the reigns and gets his 15-17 carries a week in that RBBC for a productive season versus weak run D's in the NFC and AFC West but I know you think otherwise. If so, isn't Beanie a prime candidate for a sell high opportunity as his perceived value is generally much higher than yours?
Thanks for all your hard work!
Thanks for all your hard work!
Last edited by a moderator:
Nicks' ADP in dynasty or redrafts doesnt reflect that at all.
I agree with your assessment of how Boldin will be used and timing/chemistry not being as important, but the Baltimore O won't be as happy as the Warner-led Cards, Flacco won't be as on point with the timing and accuracy to set up big run after catch opportunities, and Ray Rice will also soak up some of the short "functional run" pass play calls. I think even the most optimistic Boldin owner should be projecting a 10%-20% drop in his stats, but his value doesn't reflect that.
Even if Jones gets 200-250 carries, I don't see him cracking 4 ypc, and I see a lot games where he is rendered irrelevant as the Chiefs play from behind.
He's still a fine buy low (emphasis on LOW) because of the price drop since last year, but I still think he's a year or two away, and Im not sure he's better than Louis Murphy after watching them last year. I also think Zach Miller becomes the star of the passing game, Schilens is the possession guy, and Murphy/DHB will split up the deep targets enough that they wont have consistent value. That being said, DHB is definitely cheap enough now to pursue as a throw-in or in return for a spare part/3rd round pick.
You're right in most cases, and I did address that in the article, although if someone comes calling for one of your semi-studs or a first-round pick outside of the top 5-6 and they have Nicks, it can't hurt to ask for him in return. His owners all see him as a rising star, but they might be underestimating how far he can rise.
BlueBandit24
Footballguy
Good call. I had not heard/seen the hype on Nicks that I had on guys like Crabtree, Harvin, etc. (all of whom are deserving) and jumped to the conclusion that he was getting a little undervalued. Turns out he is being taken amongst that second-tier of fantasy wideouts.
Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
What is Boldin if not a reliable possession type receiver? Just look at the routes he ran in Arizona. I think he and Mason are actually pretty similar except that Boldin brings a certain physicality.And since when is the #1 WR on the team not allowed to be a reliable possession receiver? Those are labels that I don't think really have any applicability when used as mutually exclusive comparatives. Was there a more reliable possession receiver than Chris Carter? Yet wasn't he the #1 in Minny for years before the freakishly talented Moss came along? Did Moss become a #1 because of his "role"...or his talent?
What was Boldin's role in Arizona his first two seasons compared to his role when Fitz got going? Unless you can make the case that his "role" was changed, as in that coaches actually changed his utilization in the offense, he simply gave way to an equally/more talented WR playing opposite him.
The most productive WR on the team is the #1. It's that simple. And since talent demands the targets, and since those targets equal receptions, yardage and TD's, the more talented WR has a better chance of being his team's #1.
Right now, I think Boldin is the more talented WR. It's not a plug-n-play situation, so I give him this season to adjust, but he's your #1 in Baltimore moving forward. No matter how much Flacco likes Mason, he isn't going to miss chances to move the chains with an open Boldin. Talent rises.
The #1 WR is the guy that scores the most fantasy points. It doesn't matter whether he plays at flanker, split end, or gets moved around and into the slot.
