Bye-week drafting (1 Viewer)

[skiking08]

I was just reading some interesting ideas regarding bye week strategy, both threads in the shark pool and articles I found through Today in Fantasy. I was intrigued by the idea of stocking up on players with the same bye-week to give your team a better chance of competing in during the other bye-week games. Essentially, you chalk up a loss for one week, but instead of being at 70% capacity for 5 weeks in a row, you're operating at 40% capacity one week, and 90% the rest.

Read more here: http://www.fantasyfootballexpress.com/2007...01_archive.html

And here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/lofiv...hp/t413919.html

Normally I don't pay attention much to bye-weeks and just try to draft the guy that I think is best. But bye-weeks could be a useful decision-maker. Here's an example of what I mean:

I have MJD ranked slightly ahead of Ray Rice. In a vacuum I would take MJD. However, we can agree that they are both top tier guys and you can't really go wrong with either one. So what about using this bye-week strategy as the deciding factor between the two. Here's a list of guys available in subsequent rounds (based on ADP) that share bye weeks with MJD and Ray Rice:

........................ MJD (week 9)......................................................Ray Rice (week 8)

Round 2: .............None........................................................... Roddy

Round 3: ............Moreno ..........................................................McCoy, Desean

Round 4: ............Crabtree....................................................Boldin, Smith North

Round 5: ........... Sims-Walker...........................................................Nicks, B. Jacobs

Later: ............. Portis, Santana, Royal, Britt, Avery, Gaffney................. Bradshaw, CHI WRs and RBs, Maclin, D. Mason

Obviously at this point its a matter of preference, but I prefer a lot of the guys who have a week 8 bye, and reading through this site, these guys are getting a lot of buzz (nicks, bradshaw, knox particularly). But even if you prefer the guys with a week 9 bye, you can't argue that there are MORE options in the early rounds with a week 8 bye.

So I guess the broad questions are:

1. What do you think about this bye-week strategy?

2. Could any bye-week strategy have an impact on who you draft in the early rounds?

Any other thoughts on how to incorporate bye-weeks into draft prep would be welcomed as well

 

[joey]

I posted a thread a few weeks ago about this exact subject with some example rosters based on certain bye weeks and draft position:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=540604

Fwiw

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I was just reading some interesting ideas regarding bye week strategy, both threads in the shark pool and articles I found through Today in Fantasy. I was intrigued by the idea of stocking up on players with the same bye-week to give your team a better chance of competing in during the other bye-week games. Essentially, you chalk up a loss for one week, but instead of being at 70% capacity for 5 weeks in a row, you're operating at 40% capacity one week, and 90% the rest.

Read more here: http://www.fantasyfootballexpress.com/2007...01_archive.html

And here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/lofiv...hp/t413919.html

Normally I don't pay attention much to bye-weeks and just try to draft the guy that I think is best. But bye-weeks could be a useful decision-maker. Here's an example of what I mean:

I have MJD ranked slightly ahead of Ray Rice. In a vacuum I would take MJD. However, we can agree that they are both top tier guys and you can't really go wrong with either one. So what about using this bye-week strategy as the deciding factor between the two. Here's a list of guys available in subsequent rounds (based on ADP) that share bye weeks with MJD and Ray Rice:

........................ MJD (week 9)......................................................Ray Rice (week 8)

Round 2: .............None........................................................... Roddy

Round 3: ............Moreno ..........................................................McCoy, Desean

Round 4: ............Crabtree....................................................Boldin, Smith North

Round 5: ........... Sims-Walker...........................................................Nicks, B. Jacobs

Later: ............. Portis, Santana, Royal, Britt, Avery, Gaffney................. Bradshaw, CHI WRs and RBs, Maclin, D. Mason

Obviously at this point its a matter of preference, but I prefer a lot of the guys who have a week 8 bye, and reading through this site, these guys are getting a lot of buzz (nicks, bradshaw, knox particularly). But even if you prefer the guys with a week 9 bye, you can't argue that there are MORE options in the early rounds with a week 8 bye.

So I guess the broad questions are:

1. What do you think about this bye-week strategy?

2. Could any bye-week strategy have an impact on who you draft in the early rounds?

Any other thoughts on how to incorporate bye-weeks into draft prep would be welcomed as well

Thanks for taking the time to look into this information and post it. Personally, I don't like the idea of trying to draft guys who are all on the same bye week so to lose that week but have a stronger chance of winning others weeks since your guys will be off bye. I think you should take who you have ranked higher/feel is going to be better and that's who you draft no matter how close the call. If you take a slightly lower ranked guy 2 or 3 times in your draft to match up bye weeks, that slightly lower ranking turns into something a little more significant and then you end up with a team of guys you didn't really have ranked higher but you like their bye weeks.

If I draft a team and a bunch of them happen to have a week 8 bye, then I say to myself, "well, I'll have a tough time winning week 8 but I'll be tough to knock out those other weeks." If my team is spread out on byes, then I say, "Hey, I am pretty balanced, I should be competitive every week here if I can stay healthy."

I just think it's better to draft the best team you can possibly draft rather than let bye weeks determine the outcome. There are some types of leagues where you have to consider bye weeks for your team, like Survivor style but I assume you're talking about a redraft league, waivers and trades where the team you draft at the beginning can certainly look different than the one you end up with in Week 15. Good topic though, again thanks for posting.

 

[HoleFiller]

I don't think bye weeks should ever be considered when drafting. There is far to much that goes on between the draft and the players bye week to take someone you like less just because of a bye.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I generally do not worry too much about bye weeks except when selecting backups and even then there are times when I ignore the bye weeks (such as value too good to pass up). There is one important exception for me and it is if your league has divisions and also depending on tiebreaker rules. I will try to avoid serious bye week issues in any week that I play a team in my division during a bye week. I will not drop a tier to pick a player, but I will move some within a tier. Losing division games is a killer not only because of the head to head loss, but in cases where division record is a tiebreaker.

 

[SuperJohn96]

I always make the playoffs so I just draft with the playoff schedule more to the foreground than worrying about BYE weeks.

 

[fightingillini]

If you draft a deep team, then having bye weeks spread out shouldn't be an issue.

That said, I don't take byes into consideration, except in cases where I am taking a backup to a starter, say at QB.

Also, byes don't start until week 4 and most are in weeks 6-8. In many cases, I would have traded away players where I may have had a bye week issue. In other words, a lot can happen from Week 1 until the byes start hitting.

 

[notdarkyet]

I did this on accident one year and it was probably my best season. If you go this route, you should focusin on drafting a well rounded team moreso than worrying about depth and value for the majority of the draft. Granted if you suffer an injury or whiff on someone that should perform this will blow up in your face.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I don't think bye weeks should ever be considered when drafting.

Only in positions where you will have only one backup (Usually QB and TE).

 

[rick6668]

Another reason to possibly employ this strategy are leagues that have weekly payouts for most points scored that week. You could definitely benefit from having just one depleted week and have a 90% roster the other bye weeks. You would have a much greater chance of having the most points during those bye weeks with the other teams at 70%.

 

[Instinctive]

One of the best things about bye weeks are that they work both ways. All at once is great, and one a week is great.

The hardest part is to make sure you don't have 3 guys on a bye one week, 3 more the next, and then another 3. That's the only thing I try to avoid. Being at 65 or 70% for more than one week can really hurt if you didn't get some awesome depth.

That's why I almost completely ignore bye weeks when I draft. I make sure my backup QB has a different bye, and I make sure that on the off chance I draft a 2nd TE, he has a different bye. Which brings up a good point---don't draft a 2nd TE. Miller (JAC), Nelson, and Fasano are sure to be on the waiver wire and all could be great bye week fill-ins. No need to roster anyone before you need them.

So yeah, I like a great spread or an extreme concentration, but it's like shooting the moon in hearts--if yo go for one week, you better be ble to do it or you end up with too much of your team sitting out in more than one week.

 

[Genester]

This is a fascinating topic, one I've been looking at for a while. Here are my thoughts.

This strategy likely depends on the specifics of your league.

If you have deep rosters and 16 teams owned by strong owners, for example, the effects of byes are amplified. In other words, when the players you drafted in rounds 1-4 are off, you're at a distinct and significant disadvantage (because the talent is spread thinner across teams, and its hard to replace studs). Imagine 3 scenarios here: your best 4 players are all off in 4 different weeks. And it just so works out, that your opponents during these weeks don't have significant bye problems. Now, you're playing from behind these 4 weeks. If you go 1-3 or 0-4, is there enough time in the schedule to save your season? Do you want to be at the mercy of your league schedule when it comes to byes (because you can't control your schedule if you're playing H2H, but you can control your bye week strategy). Now, imagine the same scenario, except your 4 best players are off in TWO weeks, instead of 4. Now, you likely lose 2/4 games, but the other 2 you're at full strength for. The likelyhood of the 2-2 scenario is higher. I would argue in these types of leagues, you WANT your byes to be stacked during 1 week. Yes, you guarantee a loss for yourself, and no one likes this, but your odds of going 2-2 or better in these 4 weeks are much much higher than otherwise (all things being equal).

Conversely, if you have a 10 team league with shallow rosters and guppies, you probably want to spread your byes around, because you can find ample talent/match-up to cover your byes. This also applies if for some reason your regular season is short - lets say you play 8 games before play-offs start... do you want to throw away 1/8 of your season by taking a L?

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree, I think you can't ignore the fact bye weeks are a useful strategy. A few folks in this thread said "I pretty much ignore byes as a consideration" - I don't mean to call them out personally, but you ignore strategy at your peril. Even if you don't want to follow the strategy, perhaps others in your league do, and you can always make their life a little more miserable if you recognize this during your action/draft. For example, if you notice someone stacking players for on a bye week, bid up players with same bye week. If you have two equal choices to make in 4th round, and you see the next guy have 3 players with same bye week, pick the one he may have wanted, and see if you can get something extra from him in a trade.

The cool thing is, trying this strategy is exciting. Go do it in one of your leagues - you'll find the planning, anticipation, and execution to be fun... and this is the best way to figure out if this really is your cup of tea, or not.

Edited to add one point: your ability to actually execute this strategy while drafting is also impacted by the type of draft you have. If you are in an auction, this strategy is much easier to carry out, because you control which players you get. In a regular snake draft, you may not have the players you want with the bye weeks you want available when you draft. Obviously, you do not want to follow this strategy blindly, at a cost of choosing inferior players, just so the bye week matches.

 

[Catch-23]

I stacked my bye weeks last year (week 5: Forte, Colston, V. Jackson, Gates, Driver). I ended up losing the first two weeks of the season and was staring at a 2-3 record, at best. Fortunately, I won the next two weeks and won week 5 anyway due to my waiver claims (Burleson, in particular).

My point is that consolidating bye weeks can be a solid strategy, but I would try to do it with one of the later bye weeks (8, 9, or 10). That way, you can always blow up your team with trades if you're in a really bad position and every week becomes a virtual must win.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I was just reading some interesting ideas regarding bye week strategy, both threads in the shark pool and articles I found through Today in Fantasy. I was intrigued by the idea of stocking up on players with the same bye-week to give your team a better chance of competing in during the other bye-week games. Essentially, you chalk up a loss for one week, but instead of being at 70% capacity for 5 weeks in a row, you're operating at 40% capacity one week, and 90% the rest.

Read more here: http://www.fantasyfootballexpress.com/2007...01_archive.html

And here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/lofiv...hp/t413919.html

Normally I don't pay attention much to bye-weeks and just try to draft the guy that I think is best. But bye-weeks could be a useful decision-maker. Here's an example of what I mean:

I have MJD ranked slightly ahead of Ray Rice. In a vacuum I would take MJD. However, we can agree that they are both top tier guys and you can't really go wrong with either one. So what about using this bye-week strategy as the deciding factor between the two. Here's a list of guys available in subsequent rounds (based on ADP) that share bye weeks with MJD and Ray Rice:

........................ MJD (week 9)......................................................Ray Rice (week 8)

Round 2: .............None........................................................... Roddy

Round 3: ............Moreno ..........................................................McCoy, Desean

Round 4: ............Crabtree....................................................Boldin, Smith North

Round 5: ........... Sims-Walker...........................................................Nicks, B. Jacobs

Later: ............. Portis, Santana, Royal, Britt, Avery, Gaffney................. Bradshaw, CHI WRs and RBs, Maclin, D. Mason

Obviously at this point its a matter of preference, but I prefer a lot of the guys who have a week 8 bye, and reading through this site, these guys are getting a lot of buzz (nicks, bradshaw, knox particularly). But even if you prefer the guys with a week 9 bye, you can't argue that there are MORE options in the early rounds with a week 8 bye.

So I guess the broad questions are:

1. What do you think about this bye-week strategy?

2. Could any bye-week strategy have an impact on who you draft in the early rounds?

Any other thoughts on how to incorporate bye-weeks into draft prep would be welcomed as well

Good-Byes