Caddy is Ready! (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

I don't think Pittman is a better back than Cadillac, but his point is a valid one. If Caddy's ABYSMAL performance last year was offensive line related (primarily), then why did his backup have arguably more success? I think the offensive line was horrible, and to Capella's point, I will agree that it looks better this year (although I question just how much better). But if you watched Caddy run last year, I can't believe you would honestly say you think it was just a fluky year and had nothing to do with his outlook going forward.As I said, I have Caddy at RB24, so I don't want to say I hate the guy. Of the five staff who provide projections, I am in line with all but Chris Smith, who is projecting a big-time reboundodds -- 270 for 1067 and 7 TDs, 34 catches for 224 yards and 1 TD = 177 FPTsSmith -- 290 for 1290 and 9 TDs, 33 catches for 205 yards and 1 TD = 210 FPTs Henry -- 280 for 1103 and 6 TDs, 29 catches for 1919 yards and 0 TDs = 165 FPTsTremblay -- 281 for 1070 and 6 TDs, 50 catches for 274 yards and 1 TD = 176 FPTsWood -- 255 carries for 1005 yards and 7 TDs, 27 receptions for 180 yards and 1 TD = 167 FPTs

 

[menobrown]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

Never said Pittman was a better back than Caddy so please don't add words to my mouth. The fact of the matter is he was more effective with his opprotunity last year than Caddy. The bad line and bad surroundings did not bring Pittman down so I've got to believe there were other reasons for Caddys ineffectiveness.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

I don't think Pittman is a better back than Cadillac, but his point is a valid one. If Caddy's ABYSMAL performance last year was offensive line related (primarily), then why did his backup have arguably more success? I think the offensive line was horrible, and to Capella's point, I will agree that it looks better this year (although I question just how much better). But if you watched Caddy run last year, I can't believe you would honestly say you think it was just a fluky year and had nothing to do with his outlook going forward.

Okay. But which guy is he? Studdish rookie Caddy or last year's bum Caddy? I just feel like injuries, offensive line issues, poor play calling, poor quarterbacking, and just a bad situation, in general, contributed to his down year last year. It's just tough for me to ignore the potential he showed his rookie season.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

Never said Pittman was a better back than Caddy so please don't add words to my mouth. The fact of the matter is he was more effective with his opprotunity last year than Caddy. The bad line and bad surroundings did not bring Pittman down so I've got to believe there were other reasons for Caddys ineffectiveness.

Fair enough.

 

[PsychoMan]

FWIW, I got Caddy at 4.7 (49th overall) in my 14 teamer last week. I felt like it was good value. He and Ahman are my RB2s.

 

[Jason Wood]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

I don't think Pittman is a better back than Cadillac, but his point is a valid one. If Caddy's ABYSMAL performance last year was offensive line related (primarily), then why did his backup have arguably more success? I think the offensive line was horrible, and to Capella's point, I will agree that it looks better this year (although I question just how much better). But if you watched Caddy run last year, I can't believe you would honestly say you think it was just a fluky year and had nothing to do with his outlook going forward.

Okay. But which guy is he? Studdish rookie Caddy or last year's bum Caddy? I just feel like injuries, offensive line issues, poor play calling, poor quarterbacking, and just a bad situation, in general, contributed to his down year last year. It's just tough for me to ignore the potential he showed his rookie season.

This is the part I'm not following...he was RB19 as a rookie, scored 6 TDs and caught 20 balls...to me, that's not STUDLY. That's quite good and something that many (myself included) thought was his baseline. But if you're look at 2005, you have to also give equal weight to 2006. For his career:*** 28 games

*** 515 rushes

*** 1,976 yards

*** 3.8 yards per attempt

*** 7 rushing TDs

*** 50 receptions

*** 277 receiving yards

*** 0 TDs

Pro rate that over a full 16-game season:

*** 16 games

*** 294 carries

*** 1,129 yards

*** 3.8 YPA

*** 4 rushing TDs

*** 29 receptions

*** 158 receiving yards

*** 0 TDs

*** 153 FPTS

Over the last five seasons, that would've equated to...

*** 2006 = RB26

*** 2005 = RB21

*** 2004 = RB26

*** 2003 = RB21

*** 2002 = RB24

Seems about right. Now, if you think he's closer to the 2005 version, you can argue for top 18-20 numbers. If you think he's closer to the 2006 version, you could argue outside the top 30. I think, at his current ADP, you aren't being rewarded for the pick, in that the only way he delivers upside is come closer to 2005 than 2006. Impossible? Of course not. Likely? I think he'll be better than '06, yes. Worth making him a focal point in the 4th round? ABSOLUTELY NOT.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

I don't think Pittman is a better back than Cadillac, but his point is a valid one. If Caddy's ABYSMAL performance last year was offensive line related (primarily), then why did his backup have arguably more success? I think the offensive line was horrible, and to Capella's point, I will agree that it looks better this year (although I question just how much better). But if you watched Caddy run last year, I can't believe you would honestly say you think it was just a fluky year and had nothing to do with his outlook going forward.

Okay. But which guy is he? Studdish rookie Caddy or last year's bum Caddy? I just feel like injuries, offensive line issues, poor play calling, poor quarterbacking, and just a bad situation, in general, contributed to his down year last year. It's just tough for me to ignore the potential he showed his rookie season.

This is the part I'm not following...he was RB19 as a rookie, scored 6 TDs and caught 20 balls...to me, that's not STUDLY. That's quite good and something that many (myself included) thought was his baseline. But if you're look at 2005, you have to also give equal weight to 2006. For his career:*** 28 games

*** 515 rushes

*** 1,976 yards

*** 3.8 yards per attempt

*** 7 rushing TDs

*** 50 receptions

*** 277 receiving yards

*** 0 TDs

Pro rate that over a full 16-game season:

*** 16 games

*** 294 carries

*** 1,129 yards

*** 3.8 YPA

*** 4 rushing TDs

*** 29 receptions

*** 158 receiving yards

*** 0 TDs

*** 153 FPTS

Over the last five seasons, that would've equated to...

*** 2006 = RB26

*** 2005 = RB21

*** 2004 = RB26

*** 2003 = RB21

*** 2002 = RB24

Seems about right. Now, if you think he's closer to the 2005 version, you can argue for top 18-20 numbers. If you think he's closer to the 2006 version, you could argue outside the top 30. I think, at his current ADP, you aren't being rewarded for the pick, in that the only way he delivers upside is come closer to 2005 than 2006. Impossible? Of course not. Likely? I think he'll be better than '06, yes. Worth making him a focal point in the 4th round? ABSOLUTELY NOT.

I used invented the word "studdish" to describe his rookie year because it wasn't quite studly. You're point is well taken, though. I guess he showed me enough potential his rookie year in a less than ideal situation for me to give him a shot this year. The news around him seems mostly positive: healthy, improved offensive line, confidence of the coach, loss of ultimate goal line vulture, improved quarterback situation, assurance he'll be more involved in the passing game.

 

[BeTheMatch]

How is this any different than the guy who gets eye surgery and is now ready to catch 100 balls? Or the back who is going to "push for 2,500 yards rushing this year" or the miscreant who has "finally seen the light?"

As far as I can tell, Caddy has never been afraid of toting the rock; and he didn't miss much time last year. It's just that he absolutely SUCKED when Gruden did give him the rock.

I'm selling Caddy in a big way this year.

Are you suggesting this had nothing to do with his offensive line?

Of course the offensive line has something to do with it, but are you confident his line is any better this year?

But you said Caddy sucked (which is always a powerful and insightful statement anyway), not his O-line. Big difference.

 

[AB in DC]

I think you have to take away his first two or three games after his injury in 2005 when we was clearly not 100%. Let's be conservative and just delete two games:

26 games

491 rushes

1927 yards

3.9 yards per carry

prorates to

16 games

302 rushes

1186 yards

4 TD

He's clearly a better receiver now than he was a rookie, so add 200-250 receiving yards. That puts total fantasy points at 165.

Now this seems like an absolute floor for him over a 16 game season -- it assumes no improvement in the Tampa offense (how many RBs have 300 carries but only 4 total TD?) and no improvement in his own rushing ability. A more reasonable projection would increase his yards per carry a tad and bump his total touchdowns up to about 8 (which is the median of the five projections above). Now you're talking 190-195 FP per year, or 12 PPG, which would have been #18 in PPG based on last year's stats.

 

[kensat30]

Jeff Garcia replaces a 6th round ROOKIE Gradkowski who started 13 games last season. The rookie threw for less than 1,700 yards and threw only 9 TDs in those 13 games. He had a 65.9 QB rating, 3rd worst in the entire NFL behind Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks both of whom played for the Oakland Bed & Breakfast offense. That's how bad it was. Chris Simms, the other starter last year, opened the season with consecutive 3 INT games. That team started down and stayed down the entire year. Personally, I give 2006 a mulligan for Caddy.

This year, Mike Alstott, a guy who has been getting greater than half of the goalline carries for the past 2 years, is gone. And Tampa Bay plays one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Tampa, similar to Pittsburgh with Willie Parker, has said they want to pass the ball more to Caddy in 2007. From the article posted in this thread we see that Caddy believes himself to be 100% ready and spent extra time preparing for this offseason. I've read other articles from the coaching staff praising the changes Cadillac has made to make himself a better pass catcher. Good news > bad news.

Remember, Tampa is a team that was in the playoffs 2 short years ago. Cadillac was the offensive ROY that year and the first player in NFL to start his career with 3 consecutive 100 yard games. He went on to have SIX 100 yard games that season despite injuries. That is essentially six 100 yard games in about 13 games played. No wonder he was an overvalued 1st rounder last year. This year he goes in the 4th round. Talk about short memories.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Is this the "whoever drafted Caddy, check in here and get excited" thread?'nother fluff piece...

No its a last chance for all the haters to bury themselves in an even deeper hole.

Are you telling me that article isn't a fluff piece?

Its is , But that doesn't mean you cant state your case why Caddy wont be successful. I'm pretty sure not all people on the Caddy bus are making adjustments in rankings based of this piece either, its just a good opportunity to discuss his prospects for this season.

 

[zamboni]

This is the part I'm not following...he was RB19 as a rookie, scored 6 TDs and caught 20 balls...to me, that's not STUDLY. That's quite good and something that many (myself included) thought was his baseline.

Alstott also had 6 TDs when Caddy was a rookie. Even if you assume that without Alstott, 4 of those TDs would have gone to Caddy, that would have been a meaningfully different, double-digit TD season and we might not be having this discussion.The question, as noted, is whether one believes Caddy's numbers (ex-TDs) will be closer to 2005 or 2006. I'm thinking closer to the rookie season given last year's abomination all the way around. Still maybe not studly, but definitely room for considerable upside from last year IMO.

 

[gman8343]

I think Caddy is going to be one of the biggest steals of the draft this year and may well outproduce guys like MJD, Ronnie Brown, Benson and Brandon Jacobs. The O-line IS improved, Garcia IS an improvement over Gradkowski, and no Alstott could translate into a few more goal line carries. Last year was the fluke, not the norm IMO for Caddy.

 

[QUEZILLA]

If the O-line is the problem why did Pittman not seem to have any problems running behind it the final two weeks of the season he got the rock when Caddy got hurt?

Do you really want to make the argument that Pittman is a better running back than Caddy? If this were true, wouldn't the coaching staff know this by now?

I don't think Pittman is a better back than Cadillac, but his point is a valid one. If Caddy's ABYSMAL performance last year was offensive line related (primarily), then why did his backup have arguably more success? I think the offensive line was horrible, and to Capella's point, I will agree that it looks better this year (although I question just how much better). But if you watched Caddy run last year, I can't believe you would honestly say you think it was just a fluky year and had nothing to do with his outlook going forward.As I said, I have Caddy at RB24, so I don't want to say I hate the guy. Of the five staff who provide projections, I am in line with all but Chris Smith, who is projecting a big-time reboundodds -- 270 for 1067 and 7 TDs, 34 catches for 224 yards and 1 TD = 177 FPTsSmith -- 290 for 1290 and 9 TDs, 33 catches for 205 yards and 1 TD = 210 FPTs Henry -- 280 for 1103 and 6 TDs, 29 catches for 1919 yards and 0 TDs = 165 FPTsTremblay -- 281 for 1070 and 6 TDs, 50 catches for 274 yards and 1 TD = 176 FPTsWood -- 255 carries for 1005 yards and 7 TDs, 27 receptions for 180 yards and 1 TD = 167 FPTs

-Everyone knew exactly when Gruden was going to run the ball last year, so they would stack the box. Gruden was very limited in his options due to Gradkowski starting. IIRC, Pittman got most of his stats when the games were already over.-I haven't really looked at the strength of schedules this year, but IIRC Caddy plays some pretty weak defenses. -I will agree that Caddy looked bad last year, but the whole team sucked. He seemed to have some pretty bone head fumbles as well. I think he is a guy that really gets better with more carries. Hopefully, the offense will be much better and be able to get in some sort of rhythm. -Capella was dead on about the O-line. We had a scare with Sears, but he should be ready to go game 1.

 

[Biabreakable]

As bad as things were last year Caddy still showed he is a good RB in a few starts (bolded).

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| 1 bal | 8 22 | 25 | 0 |

| 2 atl | 15 37 | 0 | 0 |

| 3 car | 19 48 | 16 | 1 |

| 5 nor | 20 111 | 14 | 0 |

| 6 cin | 19 94 | 10 | 0 |

| 7 phi | 23 82 | 11 | 0 |

| 8 nyg | 8 20 | 34 | 0 |

| 9 nor | 12 39 | 5 | 0 |

| 10 car | 15 44 | 0 | 0 |

| 11 was | 27 122 | 34 | 0 |

| 12 dal | 17 78 | 0 | 0 |

| 13 pit | 11 27 | 30 | 0 |

| 14 atl | 20 48 | 5 | 0 |

| 15 chi | 11 26 | 12 | 0 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| TOTAL | 225 798 | 196 | 1 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

The games highlighted in red were the only 2 games where Caddy got a decent ammount of carries yet still failed to be productive. 2 games. I think he has been more successful when given the opportunity than not. This is very important with Williams because he gets better the more carries he gets.2006:

Attempts 1-Through-10 136 393 2.9ypc

Attempts 11-Through-20 79 356 4.5ypc

Attempts 21-Through-30 10 49 4.9ypc

People also seem to have a short memory of how good he was as a rookie when you look at him on a game by game basis taking into account that he performed poorly while recovering from injury:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| 1 min | 27 148 | 0 | 1 |

| 2 buf | 24 128 | 0 | 1 |

| 3 gnb | 37 158 | 0 | 0 |

| 4 det | 11 13 | 6 | 0 |

| 8 sfo | 13 20 | 5 | 0 |

| 9 car | 11 29 | 25 | 0 |

| 10 was | 10 20 | 0 | 0 |

| 11 atl | 19 116 | 13 | 1 |

| 12 chi | 20 84 | 7 | 0 |

| 13 nor | 22 96 | 7 | 0 |

| 14 car | 29 112 | 4 | 2 |

| 15 nwe | 14 23 | 4 | 0 |

| 16 atl | 31 150 | 10 | 1 |

| 17 nor | 22 81 | 0 | 0 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| TOTAL | 290 1178 | 81 | 6 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

That 37 carry game just killed him but once he recovered he was a solid RB in every game he played except for being stuffed by the Pats solid defense.The TDs have been low because of poor offense overall as well as Alsuck taking GL ops from him. Alsuck is gone now and I think the offense will be better than it has been the last 2 years. Alsuck scored 7 TD in 2005 3 in 2006. Those TD could easily be Caddys now and he has the potential to score more than his and Alstotts combined totals from those 2 seasons if the offense is indeed improved. Particularly the offensive line.

One thing that has not been mentioned about last year is how the Bucs defense crumbled. And I think that still may be an issue. A good defense is a RBs friend. It bothered me how quickly Gruden would give up on the running game last year but I think part of the reason is because he knew the defense wasn't good enough to keep things close so he would pre-emptivly air it out and try to get something going. I still don't agree with this as I think you have to make a defense respect the run as well as allow your rb and oline get a rhythm going with the running game. I still worry about Chucky abandoning the run again this year.

I think this fluff peice talks about that somewhat.

I feel pretty confident in Caddy being a solid RB2 in 2007 and the short sightedness people have about him makes him a great value right now.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I've never been a big fan of Caddy but there he was in the 5th round of a 12 team league, so I had to draft him. If you can get him late 4th/early 5th, I think that is value. He played on a terrible Bucs team last year and I think it can only get better.

 

[Horses Mouth]

I'm selling Caddy in a big way this year.

I must have stumbled upon Around The Horn all of a sudden.

 

[harryhood]

I'm selling Caddy in a big way this year.

I must have stumbled upon Around The Horn all of a sudden.

point goes to mariotti

 

[SteelerMurf]

OK, let's assume he does run the ball 50 times a game....do you think Caddy can break 100 yards

 

[Bob Magaw]

it would help caddy a lot if the TB defense gets back on track...

IF petigout & sears are healthy (petigout supposedly having back problems, & i thought sears sustained a leg injury, but not sure how serious, or if it will cause him to miss time... earlier reports on sear's run blocking were very positive), & with joseph & trueblood having another year of experience, bucs OL should be better... how much better awaits to be seen...

 

[Irish]

Jeff Garcia replaces a 6th round ROOKIE Gradkowski who started 13 games last season. The rookie threw for less than 1,700 yards and threw only 9 TDs in those 13 games. He had a 65.9 QB rating, 3rd worst in the entire NFL behind Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks both of whom played for the Oakland Bed & Breakfast offense. That's how bad it was. Chris Simms, the other starter last year, opened the season with consecutive 3 INT games. That team started down and stayed down the entire year. Personally, I give 2006 a mulligan for Caddy. This year, Mike Alstott, a guy who has been getting greater than half of the goalline carries for the past 2 years, is gone. And Tampa Bay plays one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Tampa, similar to Pittsburgh with Willie Parker, has said they want to pass the ball more to Caddy in 2007. From the article posted in this thread we see that Caddy believes himself to be 100% ready and spent extra time preparing for this offseason. I've read other articles from the coaching staff praising the changes Cadillac has made to make himself a better pass catcher. Good news > bad news.Remember, Tampa is a team that was in the playoffs 2 short years ago. Cadillac was the offensive ROY that year and the first player in NFL to start his career with 3 consecutive 100 yard games. He went on to have SIX 100 yard games that season despite injuries. That is essentially six 100 yard games in about 13 games played. No wonder he was an overvalued 1st rounder last year. This year he goes in the 4th round. Talk about short memories.