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Cambell, Moss, Randle EL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter xenon
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MinnesotaFats
Footballguy
I like Randle El a lot for where you can get him...
I could see him catching 80 balls in this offense with anywhere from 5-7 TDs..
For a guy that can be had VERY late (may even be undrafted in some leagues), that's value...
Moss will probably have 10 or so fewer catches than Randle El, but a higher YPC and a couple more TDs...
Campbell I expect to improve, but is no superstar. Still, in FF, he is value because IMO he is a very solid QB2...
I could see him catching 80 balls in this offense with anywhere from 5-7 TDs..
For a guy that can be had VERY late (may even be undrafted in some leagues), that's value...
Moss will probably have 10 or so fewer catches than Randle El, but a higher YPC and a couple more TDs...
Campbell I expect to improve, but is no superstar. Still, in FF, he is value because IMO he is a very solid QB2...
Tanner9919
Footballguy
yeah?Cooley.
I'm kind of bearish on Cooley this season..this isn't Al Saunders' 'TE-friendly' offense..this Holmgren-style passing game uses a TE, but not to the extent that Saunders' does..Zorn seems to want to use the WR's quite a bit, and that should lessen the chances for Cooley...Saunders' offenses have never really used anything but the TE and RB positions..Eddie Kennison wasn't a big star in Kc, and I think only Santana Moss has caught 75+ passes in a single season in a Saunders offense.. now Zorn promises to throw a lot more to Randel-El, Moss and Co..not a good sign for the Te position..
T Bell
Footballguy
Campbell's on my short list of must have QB's to be your fantasy backup - huge value there IMHO if you can draft him that way.
Moss and Randle El I'm going back and forth on, but I'm starting to believe that in a PPR league Randle El is the guy to have based upon ADP. They're using him similarly to the way that the Pats use Welker, though the 'Skins will not have nearly the preponderance of passes in their offense on first down that the Pats do.
Moss should be good too - he's a borderline top 10 WR when he's healthy and in a halfway decent passing game, but he's always been feast or famine week to week. He at least is healthy, which hasn't been the case since 2005.
I think ARE should give you consistent output from the WR spot and may even end up with more receptions. Here are my (always changing) projections:
Campbell: 3500/21/14
Moss: 70/1100/7
Randle El: 75/950/5
I don't think the rookie WR's Thomas or Kelly will be much of a factor this year.
Moss and Randle El I'm going back and forth on, but I'm starting to believe that in a PPR league Randle El is the guy to have based upon ADP. They're using him similarly to the way that the Pats use Welker, though the 'Skins will not have nearly the preponderance of passes in their offense on first down that the Pats do.
Moss should be good too - he's a borderline top 10 WR when he's healthy and in a halfway decent passing game, but he's always been feast or famine week to week. He at least is healthy, which hasn't been the case since 2005.
I think ARE should give you consistent output from the WR spot and may even end up with more receptions. Here are my (always changing) projections:
Campbell: 3500/21/14
Moss: 70/1100/7
Randle El: 75/950/5
I don't think the rookie WR's Thomas or Kelly will be much of a factor this year.
Phurfur
Footballguy
Good point! I like the Wash. passing game this year but had not considered this side of it. I still think Cooley will be productive but he may not perform to his ADP. I would say the value is with Campbell and Randle EL.yeah?Cooley.
I'm kind of bearish on Cooley this season..this isn't Al Saunders' 'TE-friendly' offense..this Holmgren-style
passing game uses a TE, but not to the extent that Saunders' does..Zorn seems to want to use the WR's quite a bit, and that should lessen the chances for Cooley...Saunders' offenses have never really used anything but the TE and RB positions..Eddie Kennison wasn't a big star in Kc, and I think only Santana Moss has caught 75+ passes in a single season in a Saunders offense..
now Zorn promises to throw a lot more to Randel-El, Moss and Co..not a good sign for the Te position..
T Bell
Footballguy
I don't want to hijack this too much, but those of you expecting Cooley's numbers to drop are off base IMHO. I've said elsewhere that the two guys in that offense most assured to put up similar numbers to prior years are Portis and Cooley. I think they're the "safest" Redskins picks for a variety of reasons.
People who attribute Cooley's success to Saunders' offense forget that Saunders hadn't had a productive TE before Tony Gonzalez unless you go all the way back to Kellen Winslow with the Chargers, and Gonzo was pretty much all Saunders had to work with in the KC passing game unless you're a big fan of Eddie Kennison. Regardless, Cooley was productive before Saunders arrived in 2006.
I agree that Zorn is trying to get the ball to the WR's more than last year - who wouldn't when the WR's didn't score a TD until like week 10! - but I don't believe that that's to the exclusion of using Cooley, who Zorn as much as anyone realizes is very talented and valuable.
People who attribute Cooley's success to Saunders' offense forget that Saunders hadn't had a productive TE before Tony Gonzalez unless you go all the way back to Kellen Winslow with the Chargers, and Gonzo was pretty much all Saunders had to work with in the KC passing game unless you're a big fan of Eddie Kennison. Regardless, Cooley was productive before Saunders arrived in 2006.
I agree that Zorn is trying to get the ball to the WR's more than last year - who wouldn't when the WR's didn't score a TD until like week 10! - but I don't believe that that's to the exclusion of using Cooley, who Zorn as much as anyone realizes is very talented and valuable.
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
I am not sold on the rookies will not be worked in over coarse of year and eat into the recevers stats. You don't invest them hi picks to sit on bench!
dmac37
Footballguy
yeah?Cooley.
I have loved Cooley in the past, but I agree about his role being reduced this year with Saunders gone and more weapons this year. I still think Kelly makes an impact as the year goes on, big target to offset Coles and ARE, great hands, and a good route runner.
dgreen
Footballguy
Agreed. I could see ARE being a sell-high candidate as the rookies finally work their way in.
T Bell
Footballguy
Theoretically, this is possible of course, and I month ago I would have said I completely agree, especially as a threat to Randle El, but after missing so much time this preseason I don't believe they're going to be much of a threat. They both missed a lot of critical reps in late July and early August due to injuries, and are only just starting to get back into practice. While I agree that they should become better versed in the offense as the season goes on, I just don't think they're going to be significant factors this year.dgreen said:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Are the Bengals going to play Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell just because they were high picks?
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
MinnesotaFats said:
I'm not sure I get the love for ARE. He had 1 (one) TD last year in extensive playing time. He had 3 the year before in 16 starts. He had 750 yards last year, the first time in his career that he exceeded 700 yards. His 51 catches last year were a career high. He's never had more than 3 TDs in a season.
Two of his best games last year (Seattle Playoff game, Minnesota in week 16) were with Todd Collins at QB, not Campbell. And his one regular season TD catch came on a gadget play from Clinton Portis.
He had a grand total of 5 red zone looks last year.
Now he's going to be a be a thousand yard receiver or an 80 catch guy or get 5-6 TDs?
Cooley gets the red zone looks. He's the guy Campbell looks to when the chips are down. Cooley doesn't get hurt, makes big plays, and has his QB's confidence. He's the pass-catcher I would target in this offense.
Moss has solid potential, if he can stay healthy. Campbell with throw it to him a lot if he's being productive. But he's one of the higher injury risks in the NFL.
I like Campbell. He's a good low buy option with decent upside risk.
Two of his best games last year (Seattle Playoff game, Minnesota in week 16) were with Todd Collins at QB, not Campbell. And his one regular season TD catch came on a gadget play from Clinton Portis.
He had a grand total of 5 red zone looks last year.
Now he's going to be a be a thousand yard receiver or an 80 catch guy or get 5-6 TDs?
Cooley gets the red zone looks. He's the guy Campbell looks to when the chips are down. Cooley doesn't get hurt, makes big plays, and has his QB's confidence. He's the pass-catcher I would target in this offense.
Moss has solid potential, if he can stay healthy. Campbell with throw it to him a lot if he's being productive. But he's one of the higher injury risks in the NFL.
I like Campbell. He's a good low buy option with decent upside risk.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
You don't think a total change in offensive philosophy will change ARE's numbers at all?
T Bell
Footballguy
These are valid points, however the stats don't tell the whole story with this team. Campbell was kept in shackles last year as a passer by Gibbs, who overrode Saunders and kept the offense very conservative. Part of this was due to the fact that Campbell was still struggling to master Saunders' complex system (most people say it takes a couple of years) and in part, this was due to the o-line injuries that hurt Campbell's protection and required more receivers to be kept in to block. By the time that Collins came in, the line was starting to gel again with the new guys, Fabini and Heyer playing for Thomas and Jansen, and Saunders was allowed to turn loose his passing offense with Collins, a guy who'd spent almost a decade learning it. So Collins strangely enough enjoyed a more open offense with better line protection as a backup than did Campbell, the starter. Meanwhile, with injuries to Moss last year, Randle El emerged as a receiving threat. I frankly think that he's been underutilized, but a lot of that has been due to circumstances not having to do with him. The proverbial light went on last year as the team realized how useful he could be. Now they've got a younger, less cautious offensive coach in Zorn who sees big things with him and plans to use him heavily in the offense, and I think he'll be used a lot the way Welker is (though he won't approach Welker's 2007 numbers). Yes, Moss is healthy again, but the offense also figures to pass more so there will be room for more targets to him without greatly reducing the other main guys' targets. And finally Zorn himself said flatly in a recent press conference that Randle El will exceed the 51 receptions he had last year. Anyway, that's where the predictions are coming from.
Well, he doesn't have special speed, he isn't a good red zone target, and he doesn't have a strong rapport (IMHO) with Jason Campbell. Washington will pass more under Zorn, but I see more going to Portis, Moss, Fred Davis, as well as potentially to Randel El.Maybe his overall output goes up some...MAYBE. But I can't see the level of upside that some others are. He's just not that great a WR...
This offense is not going to be as good as people think. They need to run a zone-blocking scheme, but dont have the personnel for it. The only WR who fits a WCO is Malcolm Kelly and ARE, and Randel El is not very good.
Jason Campbell's biggest issue is making quick decisions, something that the WCO puts an emphasis on. Not a good combination.
I think Kelly is their most productive WR, with ARE second, and Moss third.
Jason Campbell's biggest issue is making quick decisions, something that the WCO puts an emphasis on. Not a good combination.
I think Kelly is their most productive WR, with ARE second, and Moss third.
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
Are the Bengals going to play Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell just because they were high picks?They might not have a choice! Chads shoulder, TJ'S hammie, Henry beats up another kid!
T Bell
Footballguy
Malcolm Kelly was just cleared to practice after a knee scope in the last 24 hours, and has missed almost 4 weeks of his rookie training camp. While I agree that he's more likely than Devin Thomas to contribute something this year simply because he's got more college experience and is a bigger red zone target, I'm afraid you're going to be sorely disappointed if you expect him to be the top WR. Keep one thing in mind - Zorn has a lot of job security at the moment. His first six months have gone very well, and he has impressed the team and the fans with his leadership. He will be back next year. He has the luxury of not feeling rushed into playing these guys, and he's actually expressed appreciation for how the veterans Moss, Randle El and Thrash have quickly picked up his system. (He keeps saying that Thrash, too, will get a lot of work, but I'll believe that when I see it.)
Malcolm Kelly is the only WR that fits the system. I dont know how Moss is successful in the WCO. the WCO is predicated on short passes and YAC. Santana moss is anything but a YAC WR.
T Bell
Footballguy
I think you've got too rigid of a concept of what what works in what system, and what makes a good WR, but time will tell.
dgreen
Footballguy
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Campbell could impress this year. It appears that he grasps this offense. He has a lot more targets in route.
As a collective unit the WRs will be fine, but I don't see any one player other than Moss being worth a fantasy pick. The rookie WRs will get a shot at some point. So you'll probably see what happened in Seattle. A bunch of 50 catch, 800 yard receivers, 5 TD receivers.
Lastly, they play in a very tough division, so they play 6 games against very good defensive units. I just don't see them putting up a bunch of points, even if they win games. I think they'll need to put a lot of the load on Portis.
As a collective unit the WRs will be fine, but I don't see any one player other than Moss being worth a fantasy pick. The rookie WRs will get a shot at some point. So you'll probably see what happened in Seattle. A bunch of 50 catch, 800 yard receivers, 5 TD receivers.
Lastly, they play in a very tough division, so they play 6 games against very good defensive units. I just don't see them putting up a bunch of points, even if they win games. I think they'll need to put a lot of the load on Portis.
