Can someone splain this? (1 Viewer)

[32 Counter Pass]

In looking at the staff projection for the Ravens it seems that that the total projected plays are way under estimated across the board. Not counting sacks the Raven had 510 Pass Att / 468 Rush Att for a total of 978 plays.

The Ravens 3 year average is 500 Pass Att / 502 Rush Att for a total of 1,002 plays.

Dodd's projections: 528 Pass Att / 434 Rush Att for a total of 962 plays

Henry's projections: 525 Pas Att / 423 Rush Att for a total of 948 plays

Tremblay's projections: 516 Pass Att / 422 Rush Att for a total of 938 plays

All of these totals seem way under the total play projection for the Ravens. Am I missing something?

 

[The Man With No Name]

Sacks count as plays, but not a rush or a pass. Other than that, no idea.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Yes, I know that, that is why I did not include sacks in comparing the historical numbers of plays to the projections.

Dodd's numbers look the closet to what the data suggests but all of their projections look low to me. Just looking for an explanation.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Probably factoring in injuries.

 

[Jason Wood]

In looking at the staff projection for the Ravens it seems that that the total projected plays are way under estimated across the board. Not counting sacks the Raven had 510 Pass Att / 468 Rush Att for a total of 978 plays.The Ravens 3 year average is 500 Pass Att / 502 Rush Att for a total of 1,002 plays.Dodd's projections: 528 Pass Att / 434 Rush Att for a total of 962 playsHenry's projections: 525 Pas Att / 423 Rush Att for a total of 948 playsTremblay's projections: 516 Pass Att / 422 Rush Att for a total of 938 playsAll of these totals seem way under the total play projection for the Ravens. Am I missing something?

Not sure why you didn't mention me, but I have 1007 plays projected for the Ravens currently.

 

[H8fulHuck]

In looking at the staff projection for the Ravens it seems that that the total projected plays are way under estimated across the board. Not counting sacks the Raven had 510 Pass Att / 468 Rush Att for a total of 978 plays.The Ravens 3 year average is 500 Pass Att / 502 Rush Att for a total of 1,002 plays.Dodd's projections: 528 Pass Att / 434 Rush Att for a total of 962 playsHenry's projections: 525 Pas Att / 423 Rush Att for a total of 948 playsTremblay's projections: 516 Pass Att / 422 Rush Att for a total of 938 playsAll of these totals seem way under the total play projection for the Ravens. Am I missing something?

Not sure why you didn't mention me, but I have 1007 plays projected for the Ravens currently.

Red-headed step-child? Do you expect the staff to churn out a vanilla 3-5 year average statistical palate to appease the masses or provide their expert opinions?Maybe the lower number of plays is due to the increase in passing thanks to Boldin and the development of Flacco. Passing more = gaining yardage in larger chunks through the air. This will shorten the field and reduce the rushing/ball control resulting in fewer first downs per drive. It may also result in more 3 and out drives which also reduces the total number of offensive plays per game.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

In looking at the staff projection for the Ravens it seems that that the total projected plays are way under estimated across the board. Not counting sacks the Raven had 510 Pass Att / 468 Rush Att for a total of 978 plays.The Ravens 3 year average is 500 Pass Att / 502 Rush Att for a total of 1,002 plays.Dodd's projections: 528 Pass Att / 434 Rush Att for a total of 962 playsHenry's projections: 525 Pas Att / 423 Rush Att for a total of 948 playsTremblay's projections: 516 Pass Att / 422 Rush Att for a total of 938 playsAll of these totals seem way under the total play projection for the Ravens. Am I missing something?

Not sure why you didn't mention me, but I have 1007 plays projected for the Ravens currently.

Red-headed step-child? Do you expect the staff to churn out a vanilla 3-5 year average statistical palate to appease the masses or provide their expert opinions?Maybe the lower number of plays is due to the increase in passing thanks to Boldin and the development of Flacco. Passing more = gaining yardage in larger chunks through the air. This will shorten the field and reduce the rushing/ball control resulting in fewer first downs per drive. It may also result in more 3 and out drives which also reduces the total number of offensive plays per game.

No, I expect projections that are logical, or at least defensible. Try looking at the projections and historical data before shooting from the hip with a simple-minded response.I strongly doubt there is a correlation between Pass Attempts and the number of total plays. In fact, looking at last year's stats, I would argue that the numbers suggest the opposite. The Saints passed the ball more than any other team last year, yet they ran the most offensive plays in the league. The Pats are another example whose stats closely mirrors the Saints. If that isn't convincing enough, how about the Cards, who passed way over the league average and still ran 592 plays (not counting sacks). But, if you want to hold on to simple-minded concepts that is your business.Thanks for the response Buster. I will have to look at those numbers. And thanks Jason for pointing out your numbers, which I think are a more accurate projection.

 

[two_dollars]

Or maybe with their aging and somewhat injury prone defense, they will have less time of possession thus less plays. They may even be behind more in games and need to pass to catch up. Maybe they are playing more ball control ground game offenses this year. Could be a lot of reasons!

 

[Sweet Love]

Maybe I am lost, but there only seems to be a 24 play discrepancy on the average. That is less than two plays per game. As Grid (I believe) pointed out, many feel with the addition of Boldin and even Stallworth, they will have the ability to pass more resulting in more larger gain plays and 3 and outs. With that in mind, I am surprised they are so high...

 

[Blutarsky]

Passing more does not equate to less plays, as was illustrated by the stats of the the Saints and Pats.

The play totals are hovering around the amount a very poor offense would run. Jason Woods projections are much closer to what the trends and tendencies indicate.

 

[H8fulHuck]

In looking at the staff projection for the Ravens it seems that that the total projected plays are way under estimated across the board. Not counting sacks the Raven had 510 Pass Att / 468 Rush Att for a total of 978 plays.The Ravens 3 year average is 500 Pass Att / 502 Rush Att for a total of 1,002 plays.Dodd's projections: 528 Pass Att / 434 Rush Att for a total of 962 playsHenry's projections: 525 Pas Att / 423 Rush Att for a total of 948 playsTremblay's projections: 516 Pass Att / 422 Rush Att for a total of 938 playsAll of these totals seem way under the total play projection for the Ravens. Am I missing something?

Not sure why you didn't mention me, but I have 1007 plays projected for the Ravens currently.

Red-headed step-child? Do you expect the staff to churn out a vanilla 3-5 year average statistical palate to appease the masses or provide their expert opinions?Maybe the lower number of plays is due to the increase in passing thanks to Boldin and the development of Flacco. Passing more = gaining yardage in larger chunks through the air. This will shorten the field and reduce the rushing/ball control resulting in fewer first downs per drive. It may also result in more 3 and out drives which also reduces the total number of offensive plays per game.

No, I expect projections that are logical, or at least defensible. Try looking at the projections and historical data before shooting from the hip with a simple-minded response.I strongly doubt there is a correlation between Pass Attempts and the number of total plays. In fact, looking at last year's stats, I would argue that the numbers suggest the opposite. The Saints passed the ball more than any other team last year, yet they ran the most offensive plays in the league. The Pats are another example whose stats closely mirrors the Saints. If that isn't convincing enough, how about the Cards, who passed way over the league average and still ran 592 plays (not counting sacks). But, if you want to hold on to simple-minded concepts that is your business.Thanks for the response Buster. I will have to look at those numbers. And thanks Jason for pointing out your numbers, which I think are a more accurate projection.

Not trying to pick, but New Orleans and Arizona (New England too) are teams built around the passing game. They have been doing it for years with veteran quarterbacks. New England is a great example of a team that uses the passing game with Welker in particular as an extension of the run game to move the chains, control the clock and gain first downs. A run first team with a young QB transitioning towards passing more is likely to struggle more finding the right balance. Obviously, I can't speak for any of the staff who make these projections, but this seems like a logical rational to consider.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dodds has Baltimore projected for 1,009 plays before sacks. As someone mentioned earlier, you ignored QB/WR rushes. As it turns out, Dodds has Baltimore QBs projected with more pass attempts in '10 and Baltimore RBs with more rush attempts, relative to last season.

 

[David Dodds]

I have 528 pass attempts and 481 rush attempts. Not sure how you arrived at the numbers you did.

Pass Attempts (528):

Joe Flacco (508), Troy Smith (20)

Rush Attempts (481):

Flacco (40), Smith (3)

Rice (265), McGahee (115), McClain (45), Parmele (5), Boldin (2), Mason (1), Clayton (1), Others (4)

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Thanks, David. I failed to add the QB rush attempts. NOW your projections make more sense.

 

[Bob Henry]

I have 1000 plays projected for the Ravens.

475 run, 525 pass

Pass: Flacco 505, Smith 20

Run: Rice 260, McGahee 103, McClain 53, Flacco 39, Smith 8, Parmale 7, Boldin 3, Mason 1, Clayton 1

Hope that helps.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

My projections are slightly higher based on the trends and the Raven past three year average.

Total scrimmage plays = 1,020 Pass Att = 537 Rush Att = 449 Sacks = 34

But my original question had less to do with the Ravens and more to do with the totals. I was just missing the QB rush att. Which when added in put the numbers closer to my numbers. Thanks to those that splained it to me.