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Instinctive's Most Divergent Projections - Upside players to take a second look at (1 Viewer)

Instinctive

Footballguy
Ok.

In this case then I agree with humpbacks point that the FBG projections are also for 17 games while yours were 16 correct?

So your projections are also high because of one less game.
Going in circles here. 

If you take mine and go by 17/16, they're a bit high. That's because then they'd be 17 worth, instead of 16 (or 15 in some cases). 

These are also my tip top guys, so it makes sense that they'd be higher. I've purposefully pulled the guys who I'm divergently highest on with purely the model reads.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Going in circles here. 

If you take mine and go by 17/16, they're a bit high. That's because then they'd be 17 worth, instead of 16 (or 15 in some cases). 

These are also my tip top guys, so it makes sense that they'd be higher. I've purposefully pulled the guys who I'm divergently highest on with purely the model reads.
Ok.

My only intent here is to provide constructive feedback about your process. 

In the end I dont think it matters if you are higher or lower than other projections out there as long as your process is consistent.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Ok.

My only intent here is to provide constructive feedback about your process. 

In the end I dont think it matters if you are higher or lower than other projections out there as long as your process is consistent.
I agree, I just don't see the point I guess. I would expect the highest outliers, with no injuries predicted, to have higher projections than consensus. It's not by an insane amount, so it's a good check but one that makes sense, right?

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I agree, I just don't see the point I guess. I would expect the highest outliers, with no injuries predicted, to have higher projections than consensus. It's not by an insane amount, so it's a good check but one that makes sense, right?
Yes you should have higher results projecting for more games if that's 16 or 17 compared to projections accounting for injuries and fewer games.

I guess this is where PPG might be a better way to compare them.

I do think your projections for Kupp and William's are bordering on nuts but they are outliers. I have gone into some detail about why I think that is. JWB covered the point about the quality depth at WR for the Rams you may have overlooked.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Yes you should have higher results projecting for more games if that's 16 or 17 compared to projections accounting for injuries and fewer games.

I guess this is where PPG might be a better way to compare them.

I do think your projections for Kupp and William's are bordering on nuts but they are outliers. I have gone into some detail about why I think that is. JWB covered the point about the quality depth at WR for the Rams you may have overlooked.
Yup. Makes sense. 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Using the math in the OP compared to how things have played out on the field . . .

Over the past 3 years, Williams has averaged 7.7 targets per game x 16 games = 124 targets. He's projected for 150 here.
Over the past 2 years, Kupp has averaged 8.3 targets per game x 16 games = 132 targets. He's projected for 184 here.

Just curious why these do would see a a 20% and 40% increase in targets. Both teams have several other capable receivers and people to throw to.

 

Truebluey

Footballguy

fightingillini

Footballguy
Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against FBG: Stafford high at #3 and Josh Allen low at #7.

1. Matt Stafford: 656 attempts, 5445 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, 112 rush yards

The major driver here is Stafford's attempts, combined with an 8.3 YPA. This would be below the 8.6 career high YPA for Stafford and within striking distance of his recent top years with Bevell in the high 7s, and the 3rd most attempts he's ever had. It's just barely more attempts for McVay than the 2019 Rams. Without Akers, I think they have to tilt pass heavy and use the short passing game as a de facto run game. You'll see this key factor come up again later on. Includes a little regression to a more normal TD rate of 4%.

1. Cooper Kupp: 184 targets, 132/1690/13 line

Keeps his TD rate at 2018 and 2019 levels (so not a crazy outlier) and his YPT is jumping back up between 2018 (9.4) and 2019 (8.2) levels. This assumption is based on Kupp getting to play with Stafford instead of Goff. Most importantly, if the Rams throw the ball 650 times, Kupp's 28% target rate is the next biggest assumption. This is WAY out there, and I have Woods with a pretty big line on a 23% target share, but I'm seeing Kupp's opportunity to be huge here. I WANT pieces of the Rams this year.


Great work Instinctive.  I have a couple of comments on Stafford and Kupp....

I am not sure how you get Stafford to be QB3 with those numbers.  What's your scoring system?  I plug those into my main league (1 pt per 25 yds passing, 4 pts per TD pass, -1 INT, 2 pt bonus at 300 yds passing), and Stafford is around QB8 and not even close to a top 5 QB based on last year's stats or using  this year's FBG consensus projections.  Do you think that the QB scoring is going to be significantly less this year?

Only one WR has had more than 184 targets in a 16 game season in the past 6 years......Julio in 2015.  So I have a hard time with Kupp getting that many targets.  Why do you think LA will throw it 650 times?  Their defense should be good.  Do you think that LA will be a lot of shootouts this year?  It also could be a few games before Stafford is totally in sync with the LA WRs......he is switching teams.

That said, I am targeting Kupp in drafts this year.  Love the value.

 

shadrap

Footballguy
Great work Instinctive.  I have a couple of comments on Stafford and Kupp....

I am not sure how you get Stafford to be QB3 with those numbers.  What's your scoring system?  I plug those into my main league (1 pt per 25 yds passing, 4 pts per TD pass, -1 INT, 2 pt bonus at 300 yds passing), and Stafford is around QB8 and not even close to a top 5 QB based on last year's stats or using  this year's FBG consensus projections.  Do you think that the QB scoring is going to be significantly less this year?

Only one WR has had more than 184 targets in a 16 game season in the past 6 years......Julio in 2015.  So I have a hard time with Kupp getting that many targets.  Why do you think LA will throw it 650 times?  Their defense should be good.  Do you think that LA will be a lot of shootouts this year?  It also could be a few games before Stafford is totally in sync with the LA WRs......he is switching teams.

That said, I am targeting Kupp in drafts this year.  Love the value.
he is going early, early 4th rd in most drafts I seen lately.   Same with R. Woods.  Love both players but damn I wish they were going one round later.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Great work Instinctive.  I have a couple of comments on Stafford and Kupp....

I am not sure how you get Stafford to be QB3 with those numbers.  What's your scoring system?  I plug those into my main league (1 pt per 25 yds passing, 4 pts per TD pass, -1 INT, 2 pt bonus at 300 yds passing), and Stafford is around QB8 and not even close to a top 5 QB based on last year's stats or using  this year's FBG consensus projections.  Do you think that the QB scoring is going to be significantly less this year?

Only one WR has had more than 184 targets in a 16 game season in the past 6 years......Julio in 2015.  So I have a hard time with Kupp getting that many targets.  Why do you think LA will throw it 650 times?  Their defense should be good.  Do you think that LA will be a lot of shootouts this year?  It also could be a few games before Stafford is totally in sync with the LA WRs......he is switching teams.

That said, I am targeting Kupp in drafts this year.  Love the value.
Not sure exactly (6 pt TDs and some different yardage bonuses, more penalizing INTs) what the differences in league may be, but for my scoring in here Stafford is a tier behind Kyler and Dak and in a dead heat with Mahomes and Brady to round out the top 5 in what I have. 

I think McVay will use short passing game routes as a run game substitute, with quick hitters. I think Kupp is a major beneficiary of that strategy as well. 

I don't think Kupp is likely to get 180 targets. But I could easily see 140 when I temper my expectations and think about the passing game, the shambles their run game is in, and the fact that even with a good defense they have 6 potential shootouts just within their division (3 other offenses I love). I'm thinking 2018 Rams success coupled with better talent and NFL's different rules = LOTS of points.

 

tangfoot

Living Slackmaster
Not sure exactly (6 pt TDs and some different yardage bonuses, more penalizing INTs) what the differences in league may be, but for my scoring in here Stafford is a tier behind Kyler and Dak and in a dead heat with Mahomes and Brady to round out the top 5 in what I have. 

I think McVay will use short passing game routes as a run game substitute, with quick hitters. I think Kupp is a major beneficiary of that strategy as well. 

I don't think Kupp is likely to get 180 targets. But I could easily see 140 when I temper my expectations and think about the passing game, the shambles their run game is in, and the fact that even with a good defense they have 6 potential shootouts just within their division (3 other offenses I love). I'm thinking 2018 Rams success coupled with better talent and NFL's different rules = LOTS of points.
Just chiming in to add that Kupp has been a red zone favorite under Goff.  I can see Stafford warming up to him the same way, especially in the absence of other significant red zone targets.

 

Truebluey

Footballguy
Yeah - and I love his analysis of


Pitts


, since I'm a shareholder now. :wub:  


To be fair, he's OK with drafting Pitts in redraft if he falls to the 6th round or later. After reading his analysis of Higbee, I'm not touching under any circumstances!

It's all about targets at the TE position.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
To be fair, he's OK with drafting Pitts in redraft if he falls to the 6th round or later. After reading his analysis of Higbee, I'm not touching under any circumstances!

It's all about targets at the TE position.
I dunno…I kinda disagree with him on Higbee. Feels like he’s got a role. And as everyone on the planet has been quick to point  out with Pitts, TE is typically slow to develop.

As for Pitts, his redraft ADP is anywhere between early 5th to early 6th.

IMO of the TEs not named Kittle & Andrews, he’s the one dude who might get on Waller’s level this year.  Could be a RZ hog, plus lots of targets. I think Pitts is worth taking in the 5th rather than waiting to see if he’s there in the 6th. 

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Not sure exactly (6 pt TDs and some different yardage bonuses, more penalizing INTs) what the differences in league may be, but for my scoring in here Stafford is a tier behind Kyler and Dak and in a dead heat with Mahomes and Brady to round out the top 5 in what I have. 

I think McVay will use short passing game routes as a run game substitute, with quick hitters. I think Kupp is a major beneficiary of that strategy as well. 

I don't think Kupp is likely to get 180 targets. But I could easily see 140 when I temper my expectations and think about the passing game, the shambles their run game is in, and the fact that even with a good defense they have 6 potential shootouts just within their division (3 other offenses I love). I'm thinking 2018 Rams success coupled with better talent and NFL's different rules = LOTS of points.
140 is definitely reasonable.  Given his catch rate, gives pretty much my projection of 100 catches.   Again, I am targeting Kupp and/or Woods, as both should be good values this year.

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Just chiming in to add that Kupp has been a red zone favorite under Goff.  I can see Stafford warming up to him the same way, especially in the absence of other significant red zone targets.
Kupp is definitely on my radar as far as WRs being drafted in that ADP. Stafford always has a favorite, and with his back is not likely to pull it down and run with it.

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Really appreciate threads like this one for the discussion they catalyze, but have never been a fan of heavy reliance on projections - they seem tedious and subject to too much input error, subjectivity and clouding of the big(ger) picture.

E.g. should we really be mean regressing a possible breakout star like Josh Allen? Maybe we should, but my eye test and gut are pretty high on what we saw from him last year, as a 3rd yr QB with a wunderkind offensive coach. He looked like Aaron Rodgers 2.0 to me. I need to hear more than just mean regression to sway that impression.
I'm going to argue this take, not because I completely disagree with it, but because we need to have a conversation about the "herd mentality in FF"

I don't project every player, mainly bc I'm lazy, but I do look at others' projections (specifically FBG) and ask myself "what doesn't look right here?"  Instictive is basically doing this on an analytical level with projections, but with the advent of ADP basically in the draft room software, FBG projections, etc, you either have to find the guys you think the rest of the pundits are wrong about, hope for luck in the injury department, or that your game schedule breaks the right way.

Kudos instinctive, I appreciate the work.  

QUESTION: are there any assumptions you make when the backfield or the WR group is "messy"?  This is a Miami Dolphins question to be sure.  3 headed RB issue, multiple WRs with potential, and 3 tight ends on the roster.  Do you "plant a flag" or do you just avoid the whole thing?

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
QUESTION: are there any assumptions you make when the backfield or the WR group is "messy"?  This is a Miami Dolphins question to be sure.  3 headed RB issue, multiple WRs with potential, and 3 tight ends on the roster.  Do you "plant a flag" or do you just avoid the whole thing?


It depends. If I think a guy is going to emerge and the QB doesn't necessarily have a history of a bunch of 11% target share guys, I'll look at what his top target usually gets and say who I think it'll be. Then I tend to not bother with the other guys. An example of this might be the Lions with Calvin Johnson. I think I pretty much only projected Stafford and Megatron and everything else was just the team stats receiving wise. 

 

Ardbeg4ever

Footballguy
As a stats geek, I appreciate the OP's post.  That being said, I try to "massage" the data with some eyeball tests (I'm sure he does too).  As a Lions fan (yeah, I know), is Cupp good at catching fastballs off his back shoulder in stride because Stafford is awful at short pass "touch".  Golden Tate was the only WR that seemed to be able to catch Stafford's short passes in stride.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Time for a little week 1 early check in of "on track" or "off track" and everything in between:

Quarterbacks:

Matt Stafford great: Win so far - looked awesome, deep game, intermediate passing, and a lot of little short passes with YAC opportunities

Josh Allen overrated: Win so far - looked kinda like trash but I mostly had PHI-ATL on for my boy Jalen Hurts (shoulda put him in this too, I drafted in every single league).

Running Backs:

1. Antonio Gibson good: Loss so far - Looked good as a runner, not much receiving work. Wait and see but looking like a loss so far

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: didn't get any TDs, but usage profile was super promising to me against a stout Browns D. I'm calling this an optimistic wait and see

Wide Receivers:

1. Cooper Kupp WR1 (1600 yards 13 TDs 132 receptions): Win so far - 10 targets, 7 recs, 108 yards, 1 TD, and 4 inches away from a 2nd - dead on with my projections so far. Now, Tyreek looked freakin awesome so maybe doesn't bode so well for the "overall WR1" part, but I feel fantastic about Kupp.

2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line: Win so far - 12 targets, 8 recs, 82 yards, 1 TD - on pace for every mark (except ahead of pace on targets and receptions, used more as a possession guy). 

Mike Williams in particular: after one week, might be a win but with a slightly off distribution. I bought somewhat into the "Michael Thomas role" but I didn't think his YPT would go down or that he's get as many catches, but rather maintain some deep threat status. So far, looks almost exactly like a true Michael Thomas target distribution. Interested to see how this one in particular continues to play out.

 

foxco

Footballguy
2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line: Win so far - 12 targets, 8 recs, 82 yards, 1 TD - on pace for every mark (except ahead of pace on targets and receptions, used more as a possession guy). 

Mike Williams in particular: after one week, might be a win but with a slightly off distribution. I bought somewhat into the "Michael Thomas role" but I didn't think his YPT would go down or that he's get as many catches, but rather maintain some deep threat status. So far, looks almost exactly like a true Michael Thomas target distribution. Interested to see how this one in particular continues to play out.
Played Williams over Julio in one league based on what you wrote about him. Not that I bought into your stat line for him exactly, but agreed you may be on to something and offseason chatter backed up he'd be used more. Thank you sir. 

 

CanaBuc

Footballguy
Amazing thread!

I didn't see it before my draft but my own assessments of players coaching staff and situation led me to believe that Kupp and Williams might way out perform there ADP.

Got Kupp in the 4th and took him ahead of Woods based on my assessment despite the efforts ranking Weeks higher.

Got Williams in the 10th!

My assessments also had me looking Gronk. I went late on right end as I felt the draft capital on the top 5 were too high. 

Then I considered the following:

Last year Gronk was 1 year or of football with no offseason and a new offense. Took him a while to get going yet he still finished with 7TD. He was among leaders in red zone and endzone targets and had great chemistry with the GOAT. Also with all the weapons they have it is hard for them to commit much attention his way out Godwin Evans or Brown will be open....

I drafted Gibson with same assessments and while so far disappointed things are overblown.

First off Washington's defense has way under performed. This has led especially in game 2 to a game script that favored McKissick. Also Gibson was 4 days removed from a 23 touch game and had a sprained AC joint. 

As a doctor I can tell you those are painful especially when raising your arms making receiving difficult.

3rd Heinicke on at least 3 occasions didn't look his way when he was open and went for the riskier throw which didn't work. Was his first start this year and 3rd career. Rivera will coach him up to dump it more to his talented back.

He also had bad touchdown luck.

Now he has 10 days to rest the shoulder and Heinicke has more than 3 days to prepare as the starter.

It's too bad is the Bills who are a good defense. But I think going forward he will play as atop12 RB with top 8 in his range of outcomes.

I also drafted Brandin Cooks late (late9th) based on historical performance. Vacated targets. Poor defense leading to negative gamescript. 

My main miss was Robby Anderson. I think I didn't factor that with a healthy CMC he seems to be relegated more to how he was used in New York rather than last year where he was used more as the intermediate threat rather than Moore. He gets 1 more week to show me otherwise.

 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Alright SP fam. It's been a while since I have done this exercise, what with finishing grad school and having a fairly time-intensive job, but I used a month of time off this year to get back to my old habits and create a full projection set for all 32 teams' QBs, 1-3 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and a TE. A couple teams I did with multiple QBs (SFO, CHI), some I only did one RB (e.g., TEN), some I did no TEs. For all teams, I project out total passing game stats and running game stats based on attempts/game and efficiency and then divvy it up amongst the fantasy players plus one player per team called "Other runners/receivers," so the totals make sense. 

The efficiency stats are created through a combination of historical data for an individual player as well as their coach + NFL averages, focused on the last 3 years unless I see a reason for exception (rare but it happens). 

I'm not great with college players and don't have a massive robust database or anything, so that's mostly what I think + the NFL averages for rookies in similar draft capital.

All that said: I tend to find my big outliers vs consensus and such with this exercise, and those guys become the people I revolve my drafts around. 14-4 years ago, it was the basis for about a decade of success in high stakes leagues that helped me pay for college. Some of these projections end up WAY OUT THERE - and rarely dead on. But they help really identify opportunities and I trust them in that sense. ALL of these are 16 game projections. They are NOT adjusted for the 17th game. All my historical data is in 16 game sets, so I stuck with that so I can compare them to old results. Also, NONE of this accounts for PPR. Because PPR is a stupid way to play. Come at me. 🔥 🔥 🔥 

Without further ado, here are the highlights (no TEs - they pretty much ended up mirroring most rankings):

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against FBG: Stafford high at #3 and Josh Allen low at #7.

1. Matt Stafford: 656 attempts, 5445 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs, 112 rush yards

The major driver here is Stafford's attempts, combined with an 8.3 YPA. This would be below the 8.6 career high YPA for Stafford and within striking distance of his recent top years with Bevell in the high 7s, and the 3rd most attempts he's ever had. It's just barely more attempts for McVay than the 2019 Rams. Without Akers, I think they have to tilt pass heavy and use the short passing game as a de facto run game. You'll see this key factor come up again later on. Includes a little regression to a more normal TD rate of 4%.

2. Josh Allen: 560 attempts, 4200 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 572 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

A little regression to 7.5 YPA here, and a very slight downtick in pass attempts (1/game), and a regression to a more normal TD rate of 4.5%. I am giving him a bit better YPC on the ground game and maintaining his fairly historic rate of rushing for TDs. Story here is pretty simple, and I wouldn't be that surprised if this is one of the bigger misses I have and Josh Allen is just that talented. But I think they had excellent playcalling and a pretty weak passing defense schedule, and those things are combined with a tougher slate this year and me just not 100% buying it.

Running Backs:

Some interesting choices here, with my #1 as Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson up at RB5, and CEH at RB7. I don't really have many guys down lower than consensus by much, and Cook is in basically everyone's top three anyway, so we'll look at Gibson and Clyde.

1. Antonio Gibson: 256 for 1254 yards, 12 TDs, 77 targets, 61 recs, 445 yards, and 2 more TDs

I've got Gibson with a big ole workload coming his way, and he maintains a crisp 4.9 YPC. Less than double the receiving load, and in line with roughly his last 8 games. I'm also taking into account the turf toe and improved QB play this year to give him more leads (thus more carries) and more efficiency (uncommon, but certainly both numbers well within realistic range).

2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 240 for 1224 yards, 10 TDs, 74 targets, 48 recs, 481 yards, and 2 more TDs

Post-hype sleeper syndrome for the big time here. Even FBG has this guy at RB16?!?!? Here's what I see in Kansas City; I see a highly pedigreed back with build and measurables similar to previous monster Andy Reid fantasy backs, I see a new and significantly improved offensive line, I see a fairly complex offensive system that now has a non-COVID offseason of work, and I see a ton of TD opportunity...plus he did it for like the first 6 games last year anyway! I think I may be underestimating TDs and he could lead the league in total TDs. 

Wide Receivers:

Headline here is that my deal spit out Cooper Kupp as WR1 this year, then Mike Williams at WR7 (Keenan at WR6 too). I have Tyreek Hill all the way down at WR12 and Diggs at WR15 (both seem to be top 3 everywhere else). Diggs is low because of the same regression in Allen (minor) and a step back in targets from his 166 because Sanders is in town and Davis is good (low is still 140 targets for 98 recs, 1246 yards, and 8 TDs). Hill is purely TD regression, I have him at 9 instead of 15 (his career TD rate would be 10 TDs) as CEH gets to run a few more in. So we will focus on the two upside guys.

1. Cooper Kupp: 184 targets, 132/1690/13 line

Keeps his TD rate at 2018 and 2019 levels (so not a crazy outlier) and his YPT is jumping back up between 2018 (9.4) and 2019 (8.2) levels. This assumption is based on Kupp getting to play with Stafford instead of Goff. Most importantly, if the Rams throw the ball 650 times, Kupp's 28% target rate is the next biggest assumption. This is WAY out there, and I have Woods with a pretty big line on a 23% target share, but I'm seeing Kupp's opportunity to be huge here. I WANT pieces of the Rams this year.

2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line

oooooo baby this guy. Everyone knows the issue is injuries. Guess what? They play football. Guys get hurt. And then they don't. If Herbert is as good as many think, or as decent as I think he'll be, there's a lot of room in this new offense with an improved line to boot. Parham seems to be well-liked, but he's not a target hog. I'm giving our boy Mike Williams 25% of the targets (less than Keenan, but admittedly still a lot, in part because they don't have much else outside of him, Allen, and Ekeler). 

Discussion time - suggested topics:

So, let's see what people think here. Too many targets for the big wideouts? Where do you think those shares are for those teams? Who's getting the targets instead? Are YPT or YPC or YPA numbers off for folks in a way you can point to? Do you think any of these offenses are going to have a different amount of plays on the run or pass side?

Please don't bring up health. We get it, some of you think some guys are injury prone. My greatest strength in this hobby for over a decade has been assuming that injuries are distributed equally and acting accordingly.


Hi @Instinctive  Thanks a ton for taking the time to do this and thanks to everyone else too for the discussion. Stuff like this is what makes the forum great. 

Quick thing, I understand what you're saying on the 16 games. But the 16 games makes comparison to other projections tough without dividing to get by game and then multiplying back.

And if I'm understanding you right, you're more about getting the rankings and sort right than getting the actual projections accurate. Is that fair? In other words, you're more saying "Stafford will be a top QB" than you are "Stafford will break Manning's season long passing yard record with a game to spare". That's fine as the sort is super important too. Especially in redraft and not auctions. 

So to talk about the sort, can you say where you rank the other players you're highlighting in what type of scoring? I see where you identified what you had on QBs but didn't see the rankings on the other players.

And would love to see the full list of all the players if you'd share that. Apologies if you've already done that.

  • Matt Stafford QB3
  • Josh Allen QB7
  • Antonio Gibson. RB ___
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB___
  • Cooper Kupp WR___
  • Mike Williams WR___
Thanks a ton. Great discussion. This kind of thing helps us all get better. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Instinctive

Footballguy
Hi @Instinctive  Thanks a ton for taking the time to do this and thanks to everyone else too for the discussion. Stuff like this is what makes the forum great. 

Quick thing, I understand what you're saying on the 16 games. But the 16 games makes comparison to other projections tough without dividing to get by game and then multiplying back.

And if I'm understanding you right, you're more about getting the rankings and sort right than getting the actual projections accurate. Is that fair? In other words, you're more saying "Stafford will be a top QB" than you are "Stafford will break Manning's season long passing yard record with a game to spare". That's fine as the sort is super important too. Especially in redraft and not auctions. 

So to talk about the sort, can you say where you rank the other players you're highlighting in what type of scoring? I see where you identified what you had on QBs but didn't see the rankings on the other players.

And would love to see the full list of all the players if you'd share that. Apologies if you've already done that.

  • Matt Stafford QB3
  • Josh Allen QB7
  • Antonio Gibson. RB ___
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB___
  • Cooper Kupp WR___
  • Mike Williams WR___
Thanks a ton. Great discussion. This kind of thing helps us all get better. 
Totally - and yes, the sort is far more important to me, with an element of tiering. So I care who is RB 2, 3, 4, 5...but I really care if RB2, 3, and 4 are similar and 5 is a big drop. Nothing new or surprising to anyone in the SP I imagine!

My league system loaded into these is non-PPR with a 5 point bonus for 100 rush yards, 100 rec yards, 300 passing yards.

I ended with Gibson as RB5 and CEH as RB7. (Yeesh - both of those looking shaky at best and outright BUST at worst). 

I had Kupp as WR1 and Mike Williams as WR7 (with Keenan at WR6, funnily enough). I think my tier drop off was Kupp all alone, then a tier 2 of 2-5, then tier 3 was the Chargers guys and the next 4 receivers.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
RBs look awful. WRs look great.

Nice to have the thread.
Yeahhhhhhhh. I'll do my little self-check tomorrow per usual, but CEH looking like "not even close" is the decision rating. I think Gibson is getting the opportunities and looks great when he runs it, so I'll continue to say it's a long season and more to learn there. Fingers crossed! My unfortunately high CEH ownership % is being balanced by the 100% on-my-team rate of Kupp and Williams so far.

 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Totally - and yes, the sort is far more important to me, with an element of tiering. So I care who is RB 2, 3, 4, 5...but I really care if RB2, 3, and 4 are similar and 5 is a big drop. Nothing new or surprising to anyone in the SP I imagine!

My league system loaded into these is non-PPR with a 5 point bonus for 100 rush yards, 100 rec yards, 300 passing yards.

I ended with Gibson as RB5 and CEH as RB7. (Yeesh - both of those looking shaky at best and outright BUST at worst). 

I had Kupp as WR1 and Mike Williams as WR7 (with Keenan at WR6, funnily enough). I think my tier drop off was Kupp all alone, then a tier 2 of 2-5, then tier 3 was the Chargers guys and the next 4 receivers.


Thanks GB.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Yeahhhhhhhh. I'll do my little self-check tomorrow per usual, but CEH looking like "not even close" is the decision rating. I think Gibson is getting the opportunities and looks great when he runs it, so I'll continue to say it's a long season and more to learn there. Fingers crossed! My unfortunately high CEH ownership % is being balanced by the 100% on-my-team rate of Kupp and Williams so far.
I was being succinct to the point of being curt, I see.

Gibson is definitely still a watch, as is CEH. That was a no-nonsense pass judgment post I made, and I didn't give any of the variables much truck. That wasn't a good post by me and I should do better.

It's not even like you got mad or anything, I just re-read my own post and thought, "What an #######!"

Thanks for doing the thread. You absolutely have nailed Kupp so far. And Williams. Any edge one can get by reading another's thoughts can go a long way in a fluky, short season like fantasy football.

Peace.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
And I was posting that as Joe's post was coming up, too. That had no bearing on mine, I should say. The time stamps are too close as evidence of that. Peace again.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
LawFitz said:
Thx, @Instinctive,

I was already high on the Rams, but your original post gave me the extra oomph I needed internally to grab the Stafford/Kupp stack in my league.   :hifive:
Let's hope it sticks. I can't hope the first two weeks are wrong on CEH without allowing for the possibility that Woods gets 10 targets to Kupp's 2 next week 🤣

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Let's hope it sticks. I can't hope the first two weeks are wrong on CEH without allowing for the possibility that Woods gets 10 targets to Kupp's 2 next week 🤣


And on cue everything is headed the right way.

I'm not sure if FBG is looking to add staff but this model of yours has just a wee little bit of merit.  Thanks for sharing your work.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Four week update:

Kupp: Looking good in spite of a down week

Williams: I think this is looking good still - Herbert missed him on one wide open bomb and another wide open one. Uncharacteristic.

CEH: Things seem to have turned towards more of what I expected, though still low on the receiving side. Calling this one still in need of monitoring.

Gibson: Thinking this one is looking like a loss

Stafford: looking like a win here

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Seven week update:

Kupp: Looking like a damn good call

Williams: One rough game (wide open 80 yard TD that Herbert missed made me die inside) and then an injured but looks good but then team gets destroyed game. Not as clear a win as before, but still feels like a big W. 

CEH: "Things seem to have turned towards more of what I expected, though still low on the receiving side. Calling this one still in need of monitoring." is what I said in week 4. Then he got hurt. So now I'm calling this a neutral one.

Gibson: Thinking this one is looking like a loss, but even with injury he's still tending to get lots of touches

Stafford: looking like a win here too

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
Phenomenal thread. Not just b/c of the hits, but because of the balls on a limb. Thx to this thread I have Staff/Kupp and a first-place team.

Williams I avoided, even at potato-chip pricing due to my perceived injury risk for him. Successful call still, for this thread, but I don't have regret about avoiding. If he's doing this come weeks 16/17, I will have regret. :)

CEH and Gibson are what I thought they were when I avoided them this draft season... Underwhelming (CEH) and unproven/injury-prone (Gibson). Let's see if they can turn it around for the late season run.

Difference between me and @Instinctive... Easy as #### to say the above after the fact, especially when you have Staff/Kupp. Much harder to put your call(s) out there in preseason - especially the call for Kupp to be #1 this year. We'll see if that proves out completely, but the fact that he's #1 after seven weeks, when literally NONE of us here or just about anywhere (other than Instinctive) saw that coming, is absolutely an amazing win, no matter what happens going fwd.

HUGE props, Instinctive. Please do this again next season.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Week 10 update:

Kupp still looking like a fantastic hit

Mike Williams has turned to a likely loss I think :(

Calling a wait and see on CEH still

Maybe signs of life from Gibson? Not hoping for a ton with his leg injury though. Still think this is a miss.

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Cooper Kupp: 184 targets, 132/1690/13
Per @Instinctive that was a 16 game projection - Kupp as overall WR1

actual:

184 targets

138-1829-15

Overall FF player #1

Slight amount of backpedaling here:

I doubt Kupp actually finishes as #1 WR with 1600 yards and over 130 receptions...but I do trust that it means we're significantly under-ranking the guy.

Regardless, virtually everyone had Woods a little higher, consensus for Kupp was WR18. Instinctive was pretty much alone in making this call.

Go back to page 1. Go to the Kupp thread and look at the chatter the first week of September.

If anyone else called Kupp anywhere close to this, they didn’t post it here. I never once heard an expert analyst pimp Kupp as a FF WR1.

Great call.

 
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Instinctive

Footballguy
Thanks @BobbyLayne

Now that 16 weeks and most championships are over, I need to do a post-mortem. Off the top of my head, my gut instinct is the following, but I want to look at the numbers and see how they matchup with feelings:

Stafford - win

Kupp - Win

Allen - loss

CEH - injury

Gibson - win

MWilliams - weird...like a half win half loss? He got hurt and COVID and was an unvax dummy so I'll let others judge it

 

Sam Quentin

Footballguy
Thanks @BobbyLayne

Now that 16 weeks and most championships are over, I need to do a post-mortem. Off the top of my head, my gut instinct is the following, but I want to look at the numbers and see how they matchup with feelings:

Stafford - win

Kupp - Win

Allen - loss

CEH - injury

Gibson - win

MWilliams - weird...like a half win half loss? He got hurt and COVID and was an unvax dummy so I'll let others judge it
Even when healthy, CEH did not come close to his draft value…that is an L

 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
I'm going to definitely follow your thread next year. 60-70% hit rate leads to some championships vs. market inefficiencies, so thank you for your service. I did not follow your thread too much, but also had a good feeling on stafford, bad feeling on CEH, but super missed on Kupp. I should've dot connected that if I liked stafford then I must like Woods and Kupp, but liked Woods more for some reason. Probably was a bias somewhere- I think I last had Kupp on a roster when I traded for him one week before he tore his ACL so that could be the Bias lol 

 
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Just Win Baby

Footballguy
2. Mike Williams: 150 targets, 90/1391/10 line

oooooo baby this guy. Everyone knows the issue is injuries. Guess what? They play football. Guys get hurt. And then they don't. If Herbert is as good as many think, or as decent as I think he'll be, there's a lot of room in this new offense with an improved line to boot. Parham seems to be well-liked, but he's not a target hog. I'm giving our boy Mike Williams 25% of the targets (less than Keenan, but admittedly still a lot, in part because they don't have much else outside of him, Allen, and Ekeler).
I believe this was a 16 game projection. 16 game actuals: 67/1027/8 on 112 targets (18.8%). Not really a win but not really a loss, either, since Williams did outperform most projections.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
I believe this was a 16 game projection. 16 game actuals: 67/1027/8 on 112 targets (18.8%). Not really a win but not really a loss, either, since Williams did outperform most projections.
I think I agree, but it's another one I gotta look at. 

Two things are bugging me:

1. He was pretty up and down post-injury

2. I thought he only played like 13 games between COVID and injury

So on the one hand, I think the projection looks better when I see only 13 games...but on the other hand it was really like 4-5 good/great games and a bunch of duds, which feels like a miss versus the spirit of what I was forecasting to happen (a more consistent high-target role). 

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Williams has played 15 games

Hurt his knee in the Cleveland game (Week 5) but no missed time. Missed Week 16 with a shoulder.

Was awesome four of the fist five (1-11-0 in his dud game.) Basically unstartable the remainder of the year. Like most owners I started him several times Weeks 7-15 but crazy inconsistent - which is not unusual for him throughout this career. 

Anyway, you got the overall #1 right. Or at least thought he was going to far surpass what everyone was predicting. Good job.

Always enjoy posts & appreciate you sharing your projections @Instinctive 

 

IHEARTFF

Footballguy
Thanks @BobbyLayne

Now that 16 weeks and most championships are over, I need to do a post-mortem. Off the top of my head, my gut instinct is the following, but I want to look at the numbers and see how they matchup with feelings:

Stafford - win

Kupp - Win

Allen - loss

CEH - injury

Gibson - win

MWilliams - weird...like a half win half loss? He got hurt and COVID and was an unvax dummy so I'll let others judge it
Had Stafford/Kupp combo in a league that I had most points and won the title. I was definitely not as bullish on Kupp as you and really lucky I got him in round 4. I also took CEH in round 2 in that league and relied on others most weeks but I kind of feel like he was a decent choice and I'll be a sucker for him again next year probably.

I'll say you got a win for Mike Williams as he was very useful when not hurt/dummy.

 

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