Census House Reapportionment Announced (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Despite Dem concerns, ends up much ado about nothing:

• Republicans gain one seat (TX+2, MT+1, OH-1, WV-1).
  
• Dems lose one (CO+1, OR+1 CA-1, IL-1, NY-1).
  
• And the battleground state gains and losses net out (FL+1, NC+1, MI-1, PA-1).
  

Under these revisions Biden would have won 303 EC votes, instead of the 306 he got.  So if you want to call it +3 for Rs that's probably fair too.

 

[Shula-holic]

Just read the final seat Minnesota picked it up over New York by 89 people.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Just read the final seat Minnesota picked it up over New York by 89 people.

I saw that too and can't figure out how MN isn't on the list as a +1 (or why the list above nets out to zero already without MN included).  Has to be zero sum, but it already is and MN isn't there.  Wondering if I missed something.

ETA: got it.  Either MN or NY was going to lose a seat, and it ended up being NY.  So MN stays the same, instead of losing one.

 

[Shula-holic]

I saw that too and can't figure out how MN isn't on the list as a +1 (or why the list above nets out to zero already without MN included).  Has to be zero sum, but it already is and MN isn't there.  Wondering if I missed something.

I think most had expected MN to lose that 8th district from what I've read so it was able to hold its seats.  Most had expected NY to lose 2, so it's just a matter of who lost between them.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

I don’t remember where I read it but somewhere somebody pointed out that partisan legislatures drawing maps this year could have a hard time because the electorate has shifted so much recently.  Are the traditionally red-leaning suburbs that moved to the Dems in 2018 and 2020 going to shift back?  What about the people that switched from Obama to Trump to Biden?  I could definitely see some states trying to gain a partisan edge and screwing this up.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I don’t remember where I read it but somewhere somebody pointed out that partisan legislatures drawing maps this year could have a hard time because the electorate has shifted so much recently.  Are the traditionally red-leaning suburbs that moved to the Dems in 2018 and 2020 going to shift back?  What about the people that switched from Obama to Trump to Biden?  I could definitely see some states trying to gain a partisan edge and screwing this up.

Yep.  Especially since we're also in the middle of a pretty big old-to-younger demographic change in the next four years.  

Also, there may not be a state in the Union with more opportunity to redraw favorable boundaries than NY.  The state lost a seat, but could probably still swing +4 to Dems with an aggressive map.

 

[Sand]

There are rumors that the NY congressional district that will be squeezed out is AOC's.  You can see Pelosi's smile from here.

 

[Sand]

Also, there may not be a state in the Union with more opportunity to redraw favorable boundaries than NY.  The state lost a seat, but could probably still swing +4 to Dems with an aggressive map.

Republicans gain one seat (TX+2, MT+1, OH-1, WV-1).

And the battleground state gains and losses net out (FL+1, NC+1, MI-1, PA-1).

Interesting - all of the above states have R legislatures.   I wonder how much capacity there is for moving the lines in these states to offset NY.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The specifics here are pretty interesting.  Big picture:

• Rural counties lost population almost across the board, and
  
• White non-Hispanics declined by two full percentage points (59.8% to 57.8%)
  

Everyone's initial thoughts seem to be this is moderately good for Dems.  My thought is that's true, but probably not in the Senate -- only in the House and state governments.

 

[RCon]

There are rumors that the NY congressional district that will be squeezed out is AOC's.  You can see Pelosi's smile from here.

Similarly, rumors that Ohio's squeeze will be Jim Jordan's district.  McCarthy has to like that.

 

[RCon]

The specifics here are pretty interesting.  Big picture:

• Rural counties lost population almost across the board, and
  
• White non-Hispanics declined by two full percentage points (59.8% to 57.8%)
  

Everyone's initial thoughts seem to be this is moderately good for Dems.  My thought is that's true, but probably not in the Senate -- only in the House and state governments.

I don't think the reapportionment matters much in terms of +/-.  What matters is who gets to redraw the districts, which is largely not good for Democrats.