Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Wildcard Weekend was a nice week, as I was able to go 7-2 according to the "star" picks, and last week I wondered if it would continue. Well, not only did it, but somehow I managed to do even better with a 7-1 mark. That's impressive no matter how you slice it, but I will say that there's no chance I will get 7 wins this week as the games just aren't that attractive this week. However, I will give it my best.
Once again I will break a rule and PICK all of the games - but I won't STAR all of them. Several will want my opinion on all of the games, so I'll give them - but that doesn't mean that a friendly wager on the outcome is a great idea. So - each game will have two picks (spread and over/under) but some won't get rated for a play. Yep, a change in format...
Here we go:
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Current Lines: Philadelphia -3.5, Over/Under 47
The first time these two got together it wasn't even close. Philadelphia forced two early interceptions and broke out to a big 21-0 lead at home on Thanksgiving Night and the Eagles never looked back on the way to a 48-20 victory.
That was November.
Much has been mentioned about that outcome, but that score doesn't matter this week as Philadelphia travels to Arizona to determine who goes to Super Bowl XLIII. Now who else had that one as their NFC Championship matchup? Come Sunday, the game will start at 0-0 and all that matters will be the two teams and how they match up.
So looking beyond that 48-20 score, can anything be learned from that game? Absolutely.
Let's start with the Philadelphia offense. Donovan McNabb got the start that night after being benched only four days before at what could easily be the lowest point of his NFL career. He rebounded in an incredibly strong first half performance, throwing 15 completions on 19 attempts for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Neither TD was that much of a challenge (two short passes to Westbrook) but the bigger deal was McNabb's rediscovery of his running ability, both in and out of the pocket. On the rare instances where McNabb was under pressure, he bought time within the pocket and kept his eyes downfield and found his third option for a completion. When that wasn't there, he would tuck it and run like the younger version of #5, represented best by his 13-yard scramble to preserve a two minute drill en route towards an extra three points and a 24-7 halftime lead.
Speaking of Westbrook, he had ample running spaces in the first half. He was allegedly less than 100%, but his big offensive line and the overpursuit of a poorly organized Arizona defense gave him tons of open spaces to pick up yardage in chunks as both a rusher and a passer. The offensive line kept McNabb and Westbrook on pace to do what they do best, and I believe that if the Eagles win the trenches on offense it will be another long day for the Cardinals.
Turning to Arizona, Kurt Warner and company tried to do what they do best - throw the ball up and down the field. The Eagles applied good pressure without blitzing very much as Trent Cole visited Warner on several occasions. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both faced press coverage, but the Philadelphia defense was up to the challenge. The Eagles played man-under zone with press coverage on all the receivers including Boldin, Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban. Warner's duress attributed some to his interceptions, but mostly the Eagles were able to apply pressure to both him and his receivers without overselling their blitzes and gambling.
Defensive alignments were interesting to note for the Eagles, especially in the secondary. Nickel coverage was the recipe for the night, but many forget that Asante Samuel was a spectator on the evening as he was out with a neck injury. Sheldon Brown, Quintin Demps and Joselio Hanson were the starting trio at corner (disgruntled Lito Sheppard was pushed down the depth chart) and they played magnificently against a formidable offense. Quintin Mikell (yes, two Quintins) roamed at safety while Brian Dawkins looked for anything to hit.
Fitzgerald and Boldin were limited in the first half to three catches for 18 yards and one TD combined. Boldin both fumbled (Breaston recovered) and dropped a touchdown catch when he heard Dawkins' footsteps heading straight for him. Fitzgerald later scored, but Boldin also dropped a second touchdown later in the contest.
Spinning it forward, I expect much of the same gameplan from the Eagles on defense - press coverage, pressure from the edges, everyone within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Force Warner to beat them and force Fitzgerald and Boldin (if he can go at 100%) to beat physical corners. Relying on Trent Cole, Stewart Bradley and Akeem Jordan (his first start was against Arizona) to scoop up any run plays or underneath / short passing attack, it sounds like a very good approach against the Cardinals. Arizona can try and counter this with deeper throws, but Warner needs time to attempt 20-30+ yard tosses. Philadelphia will try the same offense as last time - create space for Westbrook, move the chains with intermediate passes and encourage McNabb to run if he has to on occasion. Big yardage plays weren't needed in November (no run went over 17 yards, and no pass over 25), so if the Eagles spread the ball around and take what is available they should prevail. Again, back in that game McNabb completed three or more passes to six Eagles, including Hank Baskett, LJ Smith and Jason Avant. Avant's been a big plus in the playoffs so far and he easily could be the sleeper WR for the Eagles again on Sunday.
As for picking the game (finally, right?), it is a tough call for me. Philadelphia should win, but many "experts" are siding with Arizona. As a lifetime Eagles fan, how can I not both want the Eagles to win yet fear that somehow it won't come true? Objectively I cannot see them losing either line of scrimmage - the Philadelphia offensive line was dominant the first time around and the defense had Warner under pressure without blitzing - and I believe that this is crucial. The Eagles offense can obviously score lots of points when they are on their game, but so can Arizona. The Cards are playing well, but the Eagles are too and they have more playmakers on that side of the ball than Arizona does. The tiebreaker if anything there is that Philadelphia won the game and dominated without their best corner in Asante Samuel, and he is one of the hottest defenders this side of Ed Reed in the NFL.
With cautious optimism, I say Eagles 34, Arizona 20.
Picks: Philadelphia -3.5 (2 stars)
Over 47 (1 star)
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Lines: Pittsburgh -6, Over/Under 34
Third time is the Charm (City)?
I don't think so, unfortunately.
As much as I would like for Baltimore to compete in this contest, I just do not see the game breaking down that way this third time around. I know, I know - the Ravens were incredibly close to beating the Steelers in both matchups this season, but let's take a quick look back. The first game was in Pittsburgh and Baltimore was in command of that game 13-3 at the half and then a costly (and questionable) penalty gave the Steelers the momentum in the third quarter which led to a touchdown and a 13-10 tight score. Following that TD, the Ravens decided to drop young Joe Flacco in just his fourth NFL start back with minimal protection and he was blitzed, fumbled and gave Lamarr Woodley a touchdown to turn the game before Pittsburgh won in OT, 23-20.
The second matchup is best known now for the final score, or questionable score as it were. The play was a catch by Santonio Holmes at the goal line in the final minute where he was tackled and pushed back out of the end zone as he completed the catch. The officials ruled him down at the one-yard line and fourth down and goal, but upon review by instant replay they gave Pittsburgh a touchdown and eventually a four-point lead. In my opinion, regardless of your thoughts on the scoring change, this robbed the league and the fans. First, the league had a great game that was tight and down to the wire - a great contest between two strong teams. The fans were also robbed of getting to see both an interesting coaching decision (kick the field goal and go to OT or go for the win at the goal line on fourth down?). The drama all went from the field to the replay booth, which is exactly why many hate instant replay.
So again, we're talking history. Who cares, right? Well, Ravens fans will point to these two games and say that they have a strong chance to win this game. At face value, I would agree - these two teams at full strength are a great matchup. The problem now is that Baltimore is far from full strength. Terrell Suggs, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and LeRon McClain are all hurting, as is Samari Rolle. All of those names are big deals for Baltimore. The biggest difference in this game could be the loss of Rolle, since if he cannot go Frank Walker will be forced to start. Big Ben can't wait for that scenario if that happens. All the rest of the Ravens will give it a go and try to play as much as they can, but Suggs could also be inactive.
Looking at the Steelers, they first got a bye and then got away with winning easily against San Diego at home. The Chargers are neither a cold weather team nor a physical team, which greatly helped the Steelers to remain healthy and be ready to play this coming Sunday.
I wish it was more complicated than this and that Baltimore had more than a puncher's chance, but I just don't see it. I've been riding the gravy train of Baltimore's underratedness all year long, but I think that stops on Sunday. Barring another big turnover differential in the Ravens' favor (which is how they beat Tennessee), I cannot help but think that Pittsburgh wins by 7 or more. I will say this - there are a few tricks that John Harbaugh can pull out to try and steal this game. First of all is the "Suggs Package" where Troy Smith comes in to play QB and Flacco rolls out as a wideout. It's gimmicky, yes, but it has been effective at times this season. The other wildcard is a sleeper pick for this game (and for fantasy purposes, 2009) - Ray Rice. Rice has not been used much lately, but expect him to get at least five touches and a few plays could be in the works for him this week. He's quick and shifty in open spaces, and we know how the Steelers handled Sproles when he had running room. Rice could get some big plays for the Ravens and if that defense plays lights out one more time, they have a chance.
My final comment on a possible game-turning player for Baltimore is Jim Leonhard. He's a scrappy safety / DB, and he may have to play more if Rolle is out. He's also a KR/PR and has given the Ravens big plays and yardage all playoff season. Look out for #36.
Okay - time for the pick. Sorry Baltimore, I'd love to see you steal this one, but I have to say that Pittsburgh is the stronger team, at home, and healthier. Third time is not the charm for Charm City. Steelers 27, Baltimore 13.
Picks: Pittsburgh -6 (1 star)
Over 34 (1 star)
SUMMARY:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Pittsburgh -6 (1 star)
Bal/Pitt Over 34 (1 star)
Phi/Az Over 47 (1 star)
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Philadelphia -3.5 (2 stars)
***THREE STAR GAMES***
NONE.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Wildcard Weekend was a nice week, as I was able to go 7-2 according to the "star" picks, and last week I wondered if it would continue. Well, not only did it, but somehow I managed to do even better with a 7-1 mark. That's impressive no matter how you slice it, but I will say that there's no chance I will get 7 wins this week as the games just aren't that attractive this week. However, I will give it my best.
Once again I will break a rule and PICK all of the games - but I won't STAR all of them. Several will want my opinion on all of the games, so I'll give them - but that doesn't mean that a friendly wager on the outcome is a great idea. So - each game will have two picks (spread and over/under) but some won't get rated for a play. Yep, a change in format...
Here we go:
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Current Lines: Philadelphia -3.5, Over/Under 47
The first time these two got together it wasn't even close. Philadelphia forced two early interceptions and broke out to a big 21-0 lead at home on Thanksgiving Night and the Eagles never looked back on the way to a 48-20 victory.
That was November.
Much has been mentioned about that outcome, but that score doesn't matter this week as Philadelphia travels to Arizona to determine who goes to Super Bowl XLIII. Now who else had that one as their NFC Championship matchup? Come Sunday, the game will start at 0-0 and all that matters will be the two teams and how they match up.
So looking beyond that 48-20 score, can anything be learned from that game? Absolutely.
Let's start with the Philadelphia offense. Donovan McNabb got the start that night after being benched only four days before at what could easily be the lowest point of his NFL career. He rebounded in an incredibly strong first half performance, throwing 15 completions on 19 attempts for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Neither TD was that much of a challenge (two short passes to Westbrook) but the bigger deal was McNabb's rediscovery of his running ability, both in and out of the pocket. On the rare instances where McNabb was under pressure, he bought time within the pocket and kept his eyes downfield and found his third option for a completion. When that wasn't there, he would tuck it and run like the younger version of #5, represented best by his 13-yard scramble to preserve a two minute drill en route towards an extra three points and a 24-7 halftime lead.
Speaking of Westbrook, he had ample running spaces in the first half. He was allegedly less than 100%, but his big offensive line and the overpursuit of a poorly organized Arizona defense gave him tons of open spaces to pick up yardage in chunks as both a rusher and a passer. The offensive line kept McNabb and Westbrook on pace to do what they do best, and I believe that if the Eagles win the trenches on offense it will be another long day for the Cardinals.
Turning to Arizona, Kurt Warner and company tried to do what they do best - throw the ball up and down the field. The Eagles applied good pressure without blitzing very much as Trent Cole visited Warner on several occasions. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both faced press coverage, but the Philadelphia defense was up to the challenge. The Eagles played man-under zone with press coverage on all the receivers including Boldin, Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban. Warner's duress attributed some to his interceptions, but mostly the Eagles were able to apply pressure to both him and his receivers without overselling their blitzes and gambling.
Defensive alignments were interesting to note for the Eagles, especially in the secondary. Nickel coverage was the recipe for the night, but many forget that Asante Samuel was a spectator on the evening as he was out with a neck injury. Sheldon Brown, Quintin Demps and Joselio Hanson were the starting trio at corner (disgruntled Lito Sheppard was pushed down the depth chart) and they played magnificently against a formidable offense. Quintin Mikell (yes, two Quintins) roamed at safety while Brian Dawkins looked for anything to hit.
Fitzgerald and Boldin were limited in the first half to three catches for 18 yards and one TD combined. Boldin both fumbled (Breaston recovered) and dropped a touchdown catch when he heard Dawkins' footsteps heading straight for him. Fitzgerald later scored, but Boldin also dropped a second touchdown later in the contest.
Spinning it forward, I expect much of the same gameplan from the Eagles on defense - press coverage, pressure from the edges, everyone within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Force Warner to beat them and force Fitzgerald and Boldin (if he can go at 100%) to beat physical corners. Relying on Trent Cole, Stewart Bradley and Akeem Jordan (his first start was against Arizona) to scoop up any run plays or underneath / short passing attack, it sounds like a very good approach against the Cardinals. Arizona can try and counter this with deeper throws, but Warner needs time to attempt 20-30+ yard tosses. Philadelphia will try the same offense as last time - create space for Westbrook, move the chains with intermediate passes and encourage McNabb to run if he has to on occasion. Big yardage plays weren't needed in November (no run went over 17 yards, and no pass over 25), so if the Eagles spread the ball around and take what is available they should prevail. Again, back in that game McNabb completed three or more passes to six Eagles, including Hank Baskett, LJ Smith and Jason Avant. Avant's been a big plus in the playoffs so far and he easily could be the sleeper WR for the Eagles again on Sunday.
As for picking the game (finally, right?), it is a tough call for me. Philadelphia should win, but many "experts" are siding with Arizona. As a lifetime Eagles fan, how can I not both want the Eagles to win yet fear that somehow it won't come true? Objectively I cannot see them losing either line of scrimmage - the Philadelphia offensive line was dominant the first time around and the defense had Warner under pressure without blitzing - and I believe that this is crucial. The Eagles offense can obviously score lots of points when they are on their game, but so can Arizona. The Cards are playing well, but the Eagles are too and they have more playmakers on that side of the ball than Arizona does. The tiebreaker if anything there is that Philadelphia won the game and dominated without their best corner in Asante Samuel, and he is one of the hottest defenders this side of Ed Reed in the NFL.
With cautious optimism, I say Eagles 34, Arizona 20.
Picks: Philadelphia -3.5 (2 stars)
Over 47 (1 star)
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Lines: Pittsburgh -6, Over/Under 34
Third time is the Charm (City)?
I don't think so, unfortunately.
As much as I would like for Baltimore to compete in this contest, I just do not see the game breaking down that way this third time around. I know, I know - the Ravens were incredibly close to beating the Steelers in both matchups this season, but let's take a quick look back. The first game was in Pittsburgh and Baltimore was in command of that game 13-3 at the half and then a costly (and questionable) penalty gave the Steelers the momentum in the third quarter which led to a touchdown and a 13-10 tight score. Following that TD, the Ravens decided to drop young Joe Flacco in just his fourth NFL start back with minimal protection and he was blitzed, fumbled and gave Lamarr Woodley a touchdown to turn the game before Pittsburgh won in OT, 23-20.
The second matchup is best known now for the final score, or questionable score as it were. The play was a catch by Santonio Holmes at the goal line in the final minute where he was tackled and pushed back out of the end zone as he completed the catch. The officials ruled him down at the one-yard line and fourth down and goal, but upon review by instant replay they gave Pittsburgh a touchdown and eventually a four-point lead. In my opinion, regardless of your thoughts on the scoring change, this robbed the league and the fans. First, the league had a great game that was tight and down to the wire - a great contest between two strong teams. The fans were also robbed of getting to see both an interesting coaching decision (kick the field goal and go to OT or go for the win at the goal line on fourth down?). The drama all went from the field to the replay booth, which is exactly why many hate instant replay.
So again, we're talking history. Who cares, right? Well, Ravens fans will point to these two games and say that they have a strong chance to win this game. At face value, I would agree - these two teams at full strength are a great matchup. The problem now is that Baltimore is far from full strength. Terrell Suggs, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and LeRon McClain are all hurting, as is Samari Rolle. All of those names are big deals for Baltimore. The biggest difference in this game could be the loss of Rolle, since if he cannot go Frank Walker will be forced to start. Big Ben can't wait for that scenario if that happens. All the rest of the Ravens will give it a go and try to play as much as they can, but Suggs could also be inactive.
Looking at the Steelers, they first got a bye and then got away with winning easily against San Diego at home. The Chargers are neither a cold weather team nor a physical team, which greatly helped the Steelers to remain healthy and be ready to play this coming Sunday.
I wish it was more complicated than this and that Baltimore had more than a puncher's chance, but I just don't see it. I've been riding the gravy train of Baltimore's underratedness all year long, but I think that stops on Sunday. Barring another big turnover differential in the Ravens' favor (which is how they beat Tennessee), I cannot help but think that Pittsburgh wins by 7 or more. I will say this - there are a few tricks that John Harbaugh can pull out to try and steal this game. First of all is the "Suggs Package" where Troy Smith comes in to play QB and Flacco rolls out as a wideout. It's gimmicky, yes, but it has been effective at times this season. The other wildcard is a sleeper pick for this game (and for fantasy purposes, 2009) - Ray Rice. Rice has not been used much lately, but expect him to get at least five touches and a few plays could be in the works for him this week. He's quick and shifty in open spaces, and we know how the Steelers handled Sproles when he had running room. Rice could get some big plays for the Ravens and if that defense plays lights out one more time, they have a chance.
My final comment on a possible game-turning player for Baltimore is Jim Leonhard. He's a scrappy safety / DB, and he may have to play more if Rolle is out. He's also a KR/PR and has given the Ravens big plays and yardage all playoff season. Look out for #36.
Okay - time for the pick. Sorry Baltimore, I'd love to see you steal this one, but I have to say that Pittsburgh is the stronger team, at home, and healthier. Third time is not the charm for Charm City. Steelers 27, Baltimore 13.
Picks: Pittsburgh -6 (1 star)
Over 34 (1 star)
SUMMARY:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Pittsburgh -6 (1 star)
Bal/Pitt Over 34 (1 star)
Phi/Az Over 47 (1 star)
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Philadelphia -3.5 (2 stars)
***THREE STAR GAMES***
NONE.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Once I saw the Philly line at 3.5 (instead of 4), it was obvious who you were taking. Typical. 
