Chester Taylor, Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn (1 Viewer)

[PSILOCYBIN]

Personally, I like Fred Taylor this year. I am not saying that MJD was a fluke last year but I am thinking sopomore jinx.

I have no clue what is going to happen in ATL

& I think Chester Taylor does have value given AP injury history and he is after all, a Rookie.

I would consider any of the three (Chester, Fred or Dunn) as my #3 RB - given I will have LT.

Any opinions or thought on these guys? HOMERS?

 

[hephner]

Here's how I would rank them this year:

Jones-Drew

Norwood

Peterson

F. Taylor

C. Taylor

Dunn

 

[SSOG]

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".

From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.

Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rank

Edgerrin James- 1st, 2nd

Clinton Portis- 4th, 5th

Fred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)

LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rd

Willis McGahee- 9th, 13th

Eddie George- 8th, 12th

Jamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)

Corey Dillon- 8th, 17th

Karim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6th

Domanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5th

Warrick Dunn- 13th, 19th

Anthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)

Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)

Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

Ronnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)

William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)

Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)

Travis Henry- 28th, 8th

Ron Dayne- 29th, 27th

Throwing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

 

[chook]

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action?Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

I think Williams could easily be called a slump.Good points in your post nonetheless. Dunn might finally be done (especially being injured already) so I expect Norwood to do fairly well. As for the Taylors, I think there's plenty left in both their tanks. MJD & ADP will still contribute a heap, but don't write the incumbents off just yet.

 

[PahtyTom]

Jones-Drew

Peterson

Norwood

F. Taylor

C. Taylor

Dunn

 

[SSOG]

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action?Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

I think Williams could easily be called a slump.

Williams wasn't really a sophomore slump, he was just a second year player than had a bad year. When a player goes from 19th to 39th in his third season, it's not a "junior slump". When a player goes from 19th to 39th in his 4th season, it's not a senior slump. And besides, for every Caddy Williams (19th to 39th), there's a Travis Henry (28th to 8th).

 

[chook]

And besides, for every Caddy Williams (19th to 39th), there's a Travis Henry (28th to 8th).

True. But bad season or whatever you wish to call it, Caddy slumped. You asked for an example, he is one so I listed him.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Dont forget Droughns and Julius Jones as undervalued guys who have rising stars behind (or in front of, possibly) them at RB. These guys should all present good value in the mid rounds of drafts and i'm looking to get two of the JJ/Taylor/Taylor/Dunn/Droughns crowd to platoon at my RB2 if i open up with non-RBs early.

 

[sholditch]

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rankEdgerrin James- 1st, 2ndClinton Portis- 4th, 5thFred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rdWillis McGahee- 9th, 13thEddie George- 8th, 12thJamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)Corey Dillon- 8th, 17thKarim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6thDomanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5thWarrick Dunn- 13th, 19thAnthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39thRonnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)Travis Henry- 28th, 8thRon Dayne- 29th, 27thThrowing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

how can you throw out injuries when talking about a jinx/ I think all the names with injured on that list gives me reason to think at least a little.

 

[SSOG]

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rankEdgerrin James- 1st, 2ndClinton Portis- 4th, 5thFred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rdWillis McGahee- 9th, 13thEddie George- 8th, 12thJamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)Corey Dillon- 8th, 17thKarim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6thDomanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5thWarrick Dunn- 13th, 19thAnthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39thRonnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)Travis Henry- 28th, 8thRon Dayne- 29th, 27thThrowing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

how can you throw out injuries when talking about a jinx/ I think all the names with injured on that list gives me reason to think at least a little.

First off, the theory is that sophomore players are likely to see a decline in scoring, not that they're likely to get injured. Second off, even if we keep in the injuries- those sophomore RBs played an average of 12.85 games in year N+1. If I recall correctly, the average NFL RB only plays 13 games per season. That's not enough of a difference for me to conclude that sophomore RBs are any more likely to miss time than any other RB.Basically, sophomore RBs see their scoring regress... by the same amount as every other RB. Sophomore RBs are likely to get injured... at the same rate as every other RB. The "sophomore slump" is a myth.