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Choosing SP for the week when everyone is in same tier (1 Viewer)

Tiger Fan

Footballguy
So this is one of those rare weeks when every SP I have only has one start and every one is pitching away except for Lilly/Oswalt. Even though the season is early, for the most part, all of these guys (sans Kawakami) are in the same tier give or take.

Need 5

Vazquez, Javier   (@CIN)

Lilly, Ted (CIN)

Young, Chris R. (@SF)

Oswalt, Roy (LA)

Slowey, Kevin (@CLE)

Nolasco, Ricky (@PIT)

Duke, Zach (@SD)

Kawakami, Kenshin   (@WAS)

IMO, Lilly and Vazquez are no brainers b/c of the way they've pitched so far, but I'm stuck on the other 3. What should I be looking for here? Historical splits home/away or vs. opposing team? I'm not looking for a WDIS this week, as I'll likely face this challenge often, and I want to be able to pull the trigger myself.

 
I would look for matchups in pitchers' parks and/or matchups against bad offenses. Or what tier they were in before the season started, unless you really truly believe they're at a different level now than they were when you drafted them.

The Pirates' and Nats' offenses are horrible (usually) and both of those matchups are in slight pitchers parks. So I'd be going Nolasco and Kawakami for sure. Duke in Petco is tempting, he did just get lit up but the Padres are not awesome offensively. I think Oswalt is too good to sit, but the Dodgers are hammering the ball right now. So are the Indians so Slowey is risky. Vazquez is rolling but Cincy is a HR-friendly park with a lefty-heavy lineup and that's not a good matchup for him. Then again, the Reds have been horrible so far this year. Lilly matches up better against the Reds. Young isn't going great but the Giants' offense isn't either, and Pac Bell is a pitcher friendly park.

I'd probably rank them:

Nolasco

Kawakami

Vaz

Lilly

Young

Oswalt

Duke

Slowey

 
all things being equal, obviously look at the recent starts for the SP, opponents and how they are playing...and then look into park effect.

Anytime you can get a start in SD, that's good. The Nats are playing brutally, and striking out a lot.

SF has a pretty weak offense, however, they are pretty decent at home.

Avoid starts @ Coors, and Cincy if possible.

It's kind of like handicapping horse racing. You have the track, form, and then angles. There is no exact science to it, just kind of feel.

 

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