Instinctive's Most Divergent Projections: 2022 edition (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

Hey SP fam! This was a big hit last year, and while I know I am late for many of you, basically all leagues I am in draft the week of the first week, one even on the Friday after the first game every time.

Here's last year's thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/thr...side-players-to-take-a-second-look-at.798969/

Here's what I said last year to preamble:

The efficiency stats are created through a combination of historical data for an individual player as well as their coach + NFL averages, focused on the last 3 years unless I see a reason for exception (rare but it happens).

I'm not great with college players and don't have a massive robust database or anything, so that's mostly what I think + the NFL averages for rookies in similar draft capital.

All that said: I tend to find my big outliers vs consensus and such with this exercise, and those guys become the people I revolve my drafts around. 14-4 years ago, it was the basis for about a decade of success in high stakes leagues that helped me pay for college. Some of these projections end up WAY OUT THERE - and rarely dead on. But they help really identify opportunities and I trust them in that sense. ALL of these are 16 game projections. They are NOT adjusted for the 17th game. All my historical data is in 16 game sets, so I stuck with that so I can compare them to old results. Also, NONE of this accounts for PPR. Because PPR is a stupid way to play. Come at me.

Overall, I trust this less than last year because I just haven't put as much time in. Probably ~40%. I think the exercise will still be helpful, but wish I'd had the time to refine more and have a couple weeks to play with it like I used to. Should still be thought and discussion-provoking I would think.

Without any further ado, I'll use FFCalc's ADP for 0.5 PPR (that's how I've set up the scoring because it matches my leagues) - https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against ADP: Lawrence at #6 and Kyler Murray down at #13. I do see Lawrence behind a clear top 5 tier, and Kyler is in the third tier, behind a bunch of guys (although mostly due to a bad first 6 weeks incoming).

1. Trevor Lawrence: 646 attempts, 5168 yards, 29 TDs, 15 INTs, 350 rush yards, 2 rush TDs

I think Lawrence is about to be very good. Like 2nd year Peyton Manning good. Not only does he have great underlying metrics, he also has the biggest improvement in supporting cast I may have ever seen with a player on the same team. Coach, receivers, backs, OLine, literally everything. I have Lawrence behind: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Brady (in that order, but it's Mahomes - - Allen/Lamar/Herbert/Brady -- Lawrence/Russell Wilson/Hurts/Stafford/Lance/Cousins/Burrow all nestled right next to each other. This appears to have me a bit higher on brady than others too, but we'll see that in the WR section...

2. Kyler Murray: 580 attempts, 4466 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 612 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

YPA coming down a bit to 7.7, and risk of it falling further and last year being his peak, this is me noticing how terrible he was without Hopkins and the Hopkins suspension playing in. Just something to think about really - I imagine he'll have a strong second half with the receivers if they all come in healthy, I'd just be ready for a slow start. It's probably more like I wouldn't have him in my top 12 for 6 weeks, then he jumps way back up again.

Running Backs:

Man it turns out I love the Jaguars (and their incredibly easy projected schedule of opposing defenses) this year. Etienne coming in at RB3 I did not expect, plus Swift at RB4, Saquon RB6. Craziest parts? I have Taylor down at RB8, and the pair of Packers come in with Jones RB2 and Dillon RB10. Catching passes matters. A lot.

1. Travis Etienne: 226 for 778 yards, 6 TDs, 116 targets, 87 recs, 872 yards, and 3 more TDs

Not a crazy amount of carries looking at Robinson's Achilles and Etienne's pedigree, and given the Christian Kirk and Marvin/Zay Jones show, I'm expecting a ton of pass catching volume too. Lawrence is going big this year, the Jags offense is going to have some fruit, and Etienne is going to get his.

It's an extremely similar line for Swift in Detroit, except better run blockign means a few more rushign yards and Jared Goff sucking means a few fewer receiving yards and TDs.

2. AJ Dillon: 215 for 1097 yards, 8 TDs, 55 targets, 50 recs, 440 yards, and 2 more TDs

Lost in the fact that Jones is a great pass catching back is that Dillon is too. I see plenty of opportunity to go around in GB, especially with a depleted receiving corps and room for Jones splitting out while Dillon stays in the backfield all year. I think there's big TD upside here too if he monopolizes that work, or even if he doesn't (depending on Rodgers' MVP-ness).

Wide Receivers:

A.J. Brown at WR6 is one among a few WRs that came out very interesting in a case of just running through a few here: should be noted I still love Mike Williams as a top 10 WR but ADP has him at like WR14 so not like last year for value.

1. A.J. Brown: 137 targets, 82/1288/12 line

His rate stats are taking a hit for me vs his career, but rebounding vs last year playing through injuries and a decimated Titans offense. He also gets the most volume of his young career now in Philly.

2. JuJu Smith-Schuster: 143 targets, 97/1216/8 line

He's already produced near this level and he's the alpha in KC. Kelce has plenty of room to eat and for JuJu to get a ton also. This guy also has crazy upside, those TDs could be low and his yard/target numbers could come up more than I'm projecting with Mahomes.

3: Julio Jones: 157 targets, 102/1417/6 line

He's still performing like Julio Jones when he's on the field healthy. I think he pretty much forced his way to Tampa and with Godwin in the first year still post-ACL injury, I'm thinking Julio might find a lot more success than we currently understand down in Tampa. This even accounts for a peculiar lack of TDs his whole career that could go away with Brady. He's only a couple years older than a washed Randy Moss once was...


Discussion time - suggested topics:

So, let's see what people think here. Too many targets for the big wideouts? Where do you think those shares are for those teams? Who's getting the targets instead? Are YPT or YPC or YPA numbers off for folks in a way you can point to? Do you think any of these offenses are going to have a different amount of plays on the run or pass side?

Please don't bring up health. We get it, some of you think some guys are injury prone. My greatest strength in this hobby for over a decade has been assuming that injuries are distributed equally and acting accordingly.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Thank you for sharing, very interesting

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Hey SP fam! This was a big hit last year, and while I know I am late for many of you, basically all leagues I am in draft the week of the first week, one even on the Friday after the first game every time.

Here's last year's thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/thr...side-players-to-take-a-second-look-at.798969/

Here's what I said last year to preamble:

The efficiency stats are created through a combination of historical data for an individual player as well as their coach + NFL averages, focused on the last 3 years unless I see a reason for exception (rare but it happens).

I'm not great with college players and don't have a massive robust database or anything, so that's mostly what I think + the NFL averages for rookies in similar draft capital.

All that said: I tend to find my big outliers vs consensus and such with this exercise, and those guys become the people I revolve my drafts around. 14-4 years ago, it was the basis for about a decade of success in high stakes leagues that helped me pay for college. Some of these projections end up WAY OUT THERE - and rarely dead on. But they help really identify opportunities and I trust them in that sense. ALL of these are 16 game projections. They are NOT adjusted for the 17th game. All my historical data is in 16 game sets, so I stuck with that so I can compare them to old results. Also, NONE of this accounts for PPR. Because PPR is a stupid way to play. Come at me.

Overall, I trust this less than last year because I just haven't put as much time in. Probably ~40%. I think the exercise will still be helpful, but wish I'd had the time to refine more and have a couple weeks to play with it like I used to. Should still be thought and discussion-provoking I would think.

Without any further ado, I'll use FFCalc's ADP for 0.5 PPR (that's how I've set up the scoring because it matches my leagues) - https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against ADP: Lawrence at #6 and Kyler Murray down at #13. I do see Lawrence behind a clear top 5 tier, and Kyler is in the third tier, behind a bunch of guys (although mostly due to a bad first 6 weeks incoming).

1. Trevor Lawrence: 646 attempts, 5168 yards, 29 TDs, 15 INTs, 350 rush yards, 2 rush TDs

I think Lawrence is about to be very good. Like 2nd year Peyton Manning good. Not only does he have great underlying metrics, he also has the biggest improvement in supporting cast I may have ever seen with a player on the same team. Coach, receivers, backs, OLine, literally everything. I have Lawrence behind: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Brady (in that order, but it's Mahomes - - Allen/Lamar/Herbert/Brady -- Lawrence/Russell Wilson/Hurts/Stafford/Lance/Cousins/Burrow all nestled right next to each other. This appears to have me a bit higher on brady than others too, but we'll see that in the WR section...

2. Kyler Murray: 580 attempts, 4466 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 612 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

YPA coming down a bit to 7.7, and risk of it falling further and last year being his peak, this is me noticing how terrible he was without Hopkins and the Hopkins suspension playing in. Just something to think about really - I imagine he'll have a strong second half with the receivers if they all come in healthy, I'd just be ready for a slow start. It's probably more like I wouldn't have him in my top 12 for 6 weeks, then he jumps way back up again.

Running Backs:

Man it turns out I love the Jaguars (and their incredibly easy projected schedule of opposing defenses) this year. Etienne coming in at RB3 I did not expect, plus Swift at RB4, Saquon RB6. Craziest parts? I have Taylor down at RB8, and the pair of Packers come in with Jones RB2 and Dillon RB10. Catching passes matters. A lot.

1. Travis Etienne: 226 for 778 yards, 6 TDs, 116 targets, 87 recs, 872 yards, and 3 more TDs

Not a crazy amount of carries looking at Robinson's Achilles and Etienne's pedigree, and given the Christian Kirk and Marvin/Zay Jones show, I'm expecting a ton of pass catching volume too. Lawrence is going big this year, the Jags offense is going to have some fruit, and Etienne is going to get his.

It's an extremely similar line for Swift in Detroit, except better run blockign means a few more rushign yards and Jared Goff sucking means a few fewer receiving yards and TDs.

2. AJ Dillon: 215 for 1097 yards, 8 TDs, 55 targets, 50 recs, 440 yards, and 2 more TDs

Lost in the fact that Jones is a great pass catching back is that Dillon is too. I see plenty of opportunity to go around in GB, especially with a depleted receiving corps and room for Jones splitting out while Dillon stays in the backfield all year. I think there's big TD upside here too if he monopolizes that work, or even if he doesn't (depending on Rodgers' MVP-ness).

Wide Receivers:

A.J. Brown at WR6 is one among a few WRs that came out very interesting in a case of just running through a few here: should be noted I still love Mike Williams as a top 10 WR but ADP has him at like WR14 so not like last year for value.

1. A.J. Brown: 137 targets, 82/1288/12 line

His rate stats are taking a hit for me vs his career, but rebounding vs last year playing through injuries and a decimated Titans offense. He also gets the most volume of his young career now in Philly.

2. JuJu Smith-Schuster: 143 targets, 97/1216/8 line

He's already produced near this level and he's the alpha in KC. Kelce has plenty of room to eat and for JuJu to get a ton also. This guy also has crazy upside, those TDs could be low and his yard/target numbers could come up more than I'm projecting with Mahomes.

3: Julio Jones: 157 targets, 102/1417/6 line

He's still performing like Julio Jones when he's on the field healthy. I think he pretty much forced his way to Tampa and with Godwin in the first year still post-ACL injury, I'm thinking Julio might find a lot more success than we currently understand down in Tampa. This even accounts for a peculiar lack of TDs his whole career that could go away with Brady. He's only a couple years older than a washed Randy Moss once was...


Discussion time - suggested topics:

So, let's see what people think here. Too many targets for the big wideouts? Where do you think those shares are for those teams? Who's getting the targets instead? Are YPT or YPC or YPA numbers off for folks in a way you can point to? Do you think any of these offenses are going to have a different amount of plays on the run or pass side?

Please don't bring up health. We get it, some of you think some guys are injury prone. My greatest strength in this hobby for over a decade has been assuming that injuries are distributed equally and acting accordingly.

After last year, I wouldn’t argue with your projections. Since I have a few of these guys already even more so.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

But If I was going to go against one it would be Julio. I’m not as sure as you he’s the same player now but even under that assumption, there’s still a lot of targets that I see going to other players.
I can buy Godwin not being the same but avoiding starting the season on IR is encouraging that he’ll be involved and they also added Gage who is solid.
With that said, he’s dirt cheap so even if you are wrong on him it doesn’t hurt to take the swing.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think JuJu would have been a great add if KC had kept Hill. When AB when psycho and left the steelers, JuJu failed to thrive. Its going to be interesting to see what happens, either way.

 

[Sam Quentin]

Wow….the Lawrence and Julio numbers are shocking.

I could be wildly wrong, but I just can’t see Julio staying healthy long enough to get even close to those numbers.

 

[Instinctive]

Wow….the Lawrence and Julio numbers are shocking.

I could be wildly wrong, but I just can’t see Julio staying healthy long enough to get even close to those numbers.

Yeah, I mean, similar to last year, the most important takeaway to me is that he's super undervalued not that he's a surefire top 10 guy. My best guess across how Brady plays with who is in Tampa would be 157 targets to Julio, 1371 to Evans and 118 to Godwin. No real TEs to throw too, and I've got Brady at 656 PAs (way fewer than last year somehow but possibly league leading).

That said...I don't do injury prediction. Don't see why Julio wouldn't be healthy, he seems healthy, and maybe he gets unlucky again but maybe not.

 

[Instinctive]

But If I was going to go against one it would be Julio. I’m not as sure as you he’s the same player now but even under that assumption, there’s still a lot of targets that I see going to other players.
I can buy Godwin not being the same but avoiding starting the season on IR is encouraging that he’ll be involved and they also added Gage who is solid.
With that said, he’s dirt cheap so even if you are wrong on him it doesn’t hurt to take the swing.

How many do you have where?

I have Evans at 131, Godwin at 118, Julio at 157, Brate at 66, Fournette at 79, and Gage and others at 105. I could see an argument that at least 30-40 of Julio goes to Gage...but my best guess it Gage doesn't see the field much if the first 3 WRs are healthy.

It's possible I've got Evans and Julio wrong, but the rate at which Brady was targeting AB when things were going well sure looks like a lot of room for someone else, especially if Godwin is like every other person ever coming back from an ACL injury and isn't himself again until next year.

 

[Instinctive]

I think JuJu would have been a great add if KC had kept Hill. When AB when psycho and left the steelers, JuJu failed to thrive. Its going to be interesting to see what happens, either way.

Would Kelce not play a similar role of another major target drawing attention?

Also, wasn't Ben pretty much garbage around the same time too?

 

[Instinctive]

After last year, I wouldn’t argue with your projections. Since I have a few of these guys already even more so.

I mean - I find it valuable to sharpen the thinking if people have reasons for things. I'll just ignore anything that's like "how dumb lol" but you know that about me already.

 

[TakiToki]

But If I was going to go against one it would be Julio. I’m not as sure as you he’s the same player now but even under that assumption, there’s still a lot of targets that I see going to other players.
I can buy Godwin not being the same but avoiding starting the season on IR is encouraging that he’ll be involved and they also added Gage who is solid.
With that said, he’s dirt cheap so even if you are wrong on him it doesn’t hurt to take the swing.

How many do you have where?

I have Evans at 131, Godwin at 118, Julio at 157, Brate at 66, Fournette at 79, and Gage and others at 105. I could see an argument that at least 30-40 of Julio goes to Gage...but my best guess it Gage doesn't see the field much if the first 3 WRs are healthy.

It's possible I've got Evans and Julio wrong, but the rate at which Brady was targeting AB when things were going well sure looks like a lot of room for someone else, especially if Godwin is like every other person ever coming back from an ACL injury and isn't himself again until next year.

Not arguing the general point, but considering your avatar, you ought to be able to think of one guy that did pretty well coming off a torn ACL.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think JuJu would have been a great add if KC had kept Hill. When AB when psycho and left the steelers, JuJu failed to thrive. Its going to be interesting to see what happens, either way.

Would Kelce not play a similar role of another major target drawing attention?

Also, wasn't Ben pretty much garbage around the same time too?

Those are valid points. I just need JuJu to show me something before I hop on the train.

 

[TampaMike19]

Thanks for sharing! Great work. Very interesting no doubt. Certainly share some of your sentiments, especially around etienne and aj brown.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

f Godwin is like every other person ever coming back from an ACL injury and isn't himself again until next year

Maybe I'm wrong but ACL injuries just don't seem to be as devastating as in the past - I see more targets going from Julio to Godwin. I would be really shocked if Jones is the top target in Tampa Bay at season's end - but like I said he's pretty cheap to find out.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

AJB and JuJu I agree with your software and work you put in.
-Skeptical of Julio and word is Godwin is ready to roll starting Week 1 but yeah it would be good if he had a couple weeks to get his sea legs back.

Grabbed Trevor in a lot of leagues as the last team to take a back up QB.

 

[BassNBrew]

Quarterbacks:

I have two players that appear to be outliers as measured against ADP: Lawrence at #6 and Kyler Murray down at #13. I do see Lawrence behind a clear top 5 tier, and Kyler is in the third tier, behind a bunch of guys (although mostly due to a bad first 6 weeks incoming).

1. Trevor Lawrence: 646 attempts, 5168 yards, 29 TDs, 15 INTs, 350 rush yards, 2 rush TDs

I think Lawrence is about to be very good. Like 2nd year Peyton Manning good. Not only does he have great underlying metrics, he also has the biggest improvement in supporting cast I may have ever seen with a player on the same team. Coach, receivers, backs, OLine, literally everything. I have Lawrence behind: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Brady (in that order, but it's Mahomes - - Allen/Lamar/Herbert/Brady -- Lawrence/Russell Wilson/Hurts/Stafford/Lance/Cousins/Burrow all nestled right next to each other. This appears to have me a bit higher on brady than others too, but we'll see that in the WR section...

2. Kyler Murray: 580 attempts, 4466 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 612 rush yards, 7 rush TDs

YPA coming down a bit to 7.7, and risk of it falling further and last year being his peak, this is me noticing how terrible he was without Hopkins and the Hopkins suspension playing in. Just something to think about really - I imagine he'll have a strong second half with the receivers if they all come in healthy, I'd just be ready for a slow start. It's probably more like I wouldn't have him in my top 12 for 6 weeks, then he jumps way back up again.

Won't discuss ranking because in my main league your numbers here will have Murray ranked higher. Even with the inflated pass attempts, I don't think Lawrence will be efficient enough to pull off close to 5200 yards.

Nice take on Murray. I'm not sure why he's been going before LJax.

Running Backs:

Man it turns out I love the Jaguars (and their incredibly easy projected schedule of opposing defenses) this year. Etienne coming in at RB3 I did not expect, plus Swift at RB4, Saquon RB6. Craziest parts? I have Taylor down at RB8, and the pair of Packers come in with Jones RB2 and Dillon RB10. Catching passes matters. A lot.

1. Travis Etienne: 226 for 778 yards, 6 TDs, 116 targets, 87 recs, 872 yards, and 3 more TDs

Not a crazy amount of carries looking at Robinson's Achilles and Etienne's pedigree, and given the Christian Kirk and Marvin/Zay Jones show, I'm expecting a ton of pass catching volume too. Lawrence is going big this year, the Jags offense is going to have some fruit, and Etienne is going to get his.

It's an extremely similar line for Swift in Detroit, except better run blockign means a few more rushign yards and Jared Goff sucking means a few fewer receiving yards and TDs.

I think you're low on Etienne's ypc. None of the top 60 runners were that ypc woeful. If he's only averaging 3 ypc then Lawrence will never approach the volume you are projecting because the defense will constantly be on the field. I'd add another 200 yards based on 778 carries unless you are project the Jags to go 17-0 and Etienne doing the end of game kneel downs.

2. AJ Dillon: 215 for 1097 yards, 8 TDs, 55 targets, 50 recs, 440 yards, and 2 more TDs

Lost in the fact that Jones is a great pass catching back is that Dillon is too. I see plenty of opportunity to go around in GB, especially with a depleted receiving corps and room for Jones splitting out while Dillon stays in the backfield all year. I think there's big TD upside here too if he monopolizes that work, or even if he doesn't (depending on Rodgers' MVP-ness).

You're getting here based mainly on the receiving. I can see that based on the lack of WRs in GB.

Wide Receivers:

A.J. Brown at WR6 is one among a few WRs that came out very interesting in a case of just running through a few here: should be noted I still love Mike Williams as a top 10 WR but ADP has him at like WR14 so not like last year for value.

1. A.J. Brown: 137 targets, 82/1288/12 line

This isn't so much an AJ call as an expectation that the guys above him will fall short. Your catches and yards are in line with most, just the TDs are boosted. I still think Williams in the top 10 is a "bolder" call relative to ADP.

His rate stats are taking a hit for me vs his career, but rebounding vs last year playing through injuries and a decimated Titans offense. He also gets the most volume of his young career now in Philly.

2. JuJu Smith-Schuster: 143 targets, 97/1216/8 line

He's already produced near this level and he's the alpha in KC. Kelce has plenty of room to eat and for JuJu to get a ton also. This guy also has crazy upside, those TDs could be low and his yard/target numbers could come up more than I'm projecting with Mahomes.

100% agree and could be light here. IMO the ff community is getting this wrong.

3: Julio Jones: 157 targets, 102/1417/6 line

He's still performing like Julio Jones when he's on the field healthy. I think he pretty much forced his way to Tampa and with Godwin in the first year still post-ACL injury, I'm thinking Julio might find a lot more success than we currently understand down in Tampa. This even accounts for a peculiar lack of TDs his whole career that could go away with Brady. He's only a couple years older than a washed Randy Moss once was...

Very bold here and I'm in agreement. I think you're high on the targets, but Julio is not only going to eat this year, but pig out. I've been snapping him up everywhere I can.

 

[Zow]

Wow….the Lawrence and Julio numbers are shocking.

I could be wildly wrong, but I just can’t see Julio staying healthy long enough to get even close to those numbers.

Yeah, I mean, similar to last year, the most important takeaway to me is that he's super undervalued not that he's a surefire top 10 guy. My best guess across how Brady plays with who is in Tampa would be 157 targets to Julio, 1371 to Evans and 118 to Godwin. No real TEs to throw too, and I've got Brady at 656 PAs (way fewer than last year somehow but possibly league leading).

That said...I don't do injury prediction. Don't see why Julio wouldn't be healthy, he seems healthy, and maybe he gets unlucky again but maybe not.

Did Russell Gage kick your dog or something?

 

[Instinctive]

Wow….the Lawrence and Julio numbers are shocking.

I could be wildly wrong, but I just can’t see Julio staying healthy long enough to get even close to those numbers.

Yeah, I mean, similar to last year, the most important takeaway to me is that he's super undervalued not that he's a surefire top 10 guy. My best guess across how Brady plays with who is in Tampa would be 157 targets to Julio, 1371 to Evans and 118 to Godwin. No real TEs to throw too, and I've got Brady at 656 PAs (way fewer than last year somehow but possibly league leading).

That said...I don't do injury prediction. Don't see why Julio wouldn't be healthy, he seems healthy, and maybe he gets unlucky again but maybe not.

Did Russell Gage kick your dog or something?

Haha

Well, Gronk leaves 89 targets. Brown leaves 62. Tyler Johnson leaves 55 (he did get cut right?). That's 206. Godwin had 127. Is it crazy to take that 333, and split it to be 157 Julio, 118 Godwin, and 58 to Gage?

I do think all the responses indicate it's a bit overoptimistic...but then again, this is is only a 24% target share, which Julio has basically exceeded every game he's stepped on the field his whole career.

 

[Zow]

Wow….the Lawrence and Julio numbers are shocking.

I could be wildly wrong, but I just can’t see Julio staying healthy long enough to get even close to those numbers.

Yeah, I mean, similar to last year, the most important takeaway to me is that he's super undervalued not that he's a surefire top 10 guy. My best guess across how Brady plays with who is in Tampa would be 157 targets to Julio, 1371 to Evans and 118 to Godwin. No real TEs to throw too, and I've got Brady at 656 PAs (way fewer than last year somehow but possibly league leading).

That said...I don't do injury prediction. Don't see why Julio wouldn't be healthy, he seems healthy, and maybe he gets unlucky again but maybe not.

Did Russell Gage kick your dog or something?

Haha

Well, Gronk leaves 89 targets. Brown leaves 62. Tyler Johnson leaves 55 (he did get cut right?). That's 206. Godwin had 127. Is it crazy to take that 333, and split it to be 157 Julio, 118 Godwin, and 58 to Gage?

I do think all the responses indicate it's a bit overoptimistic...but then again, this is is only a 24% target share, which Julio has basically exceeded every game he's stepped on the field his whole career.

Is it confirmed that Julio is a starter? I was under the impression that he's 4th on the depth chart.

 

[wgoldsph]

I find it disingenuous to shrug your shoulders and say that injuries happen to everyone and you're just simply not going to factor them into your projections. One of the most important abilities a player can have is availability and there's a handful of guys that have shown that they either have or don't have that skill. For instance I love Deebo, but if you don't factor in him missing a game or two to a soft tissue injury you're simply not paying attention to years of available data. Leaving that out of any protection makes it incomplete at best.

 

[Grahamburn]

Love the Trevor Lawrence call. He feels like one of the “win your league” types of breakout players you need to, well, win your league.

Tom threw a laser to Julio in the last preseason game. Rocket out. Great route. Great throw. That’s all I needed to see. Julio can still play. Injuries? Who knows. I do think those target numbers are lofty, but if he did play a healthy 17 they’re probably attainable.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Wow….the Lawrence and Julio numbers are shocking.

I could be wildly wrong, but I just can’t see Julio staying healthy long enough to get even close to those numbers.

Yeah, I mean, similar to last year, the most important takeaway to me is that he's super undervalued not that he's a surefire top 10 guy. My best guess across how Brady plays with who is in Tampa would be 157 targets to Julio, 1371 to Evans and 118 to Godwin. No real TEs to throw too, and I've got Brady at 656 PAs (way fewer than last year somehow but possibly league leading).

That said...I don't do injury prediction. Don't see why Julio wouldn't be healthy, he seems healthy, and maybe he gets unlucky again but maybe not.

Did Russell Gage kick your dog or something?

Haha

Well, Gronk leaves 89 targets. Brown leaves 62. Tyler Johnson leaves 55 (he did get cut right?). That's 206. Godwin had 127. Is it crazy to take that 333, and split it to be 157 Julio, 118 Godwin, and 58 to Gage?

I do think all the responses indicate it's a bit overoptimistic...but then again, this is is only a 24% target share, which Julio has basically exceeded every game he's stepped on the field his whole career.

There have been several studies the last few years that demonstrate departed targets most often go to RBs in the redistribution. So, yeah, it would be a bit crazy.

You're also trying to make an edge case for a 33 year old wide receiver. I mean, he is a historically great WR - first with 1400 six straight years, eight consecutive years of 85 yards per game or better. But there aren't a lot of Charlie Joiner examples in the history of the NFL, guys who saw a positive regression in Years 11-13 / Ages 32-34. Jerry Rice at age 36 (and a couple other decentish years IIRC.) Although with guys like Rice and Harrison, we're talking uninterrupted, injury free seasons up to age 35.

It's within the range of outcomes. But it def is not likely.

You made a couple great calls last year that won people $$, I appreciate you putting time into this, and you're under no obligation to share. I've always respected your opinion, you have good thought processes and articulate your points better than all but a handful around here. Keep doing that thing you do man bc this place is better for it.

 

[fightingillini]

2. AJ Dillon: 215 for 1097 yards, 8 TDs, 55 targets, 50 recs, 440 yards, and 2 more TDs

Lost in the fact that Jones is a great pass catching back is that Dillon is too. I see plenty of opportunity to go around in GB, especially with a depleted receiving corps and room for Jones splitting out while Dillon stays in the backfield all year. I think there's big TD upside here too if he monopolizes that work, or even if he doesn't (depending on Rodgers' MVP-ness).

Thanks for doing this again! I highly respect your viewpoints (and you nailed Cooper Kupp last year)

Want to discuss Dillon......

1) 5.1 yards per carry? That seems really high since Dillon may be the short yardage back.
2) What is your projection for A Jones? I do think GB is going to run the ball a lot this year, and the offense should run through Jones and Dillon. Do you think Jones and Dillon will occasionally be on the field at the same time....
3) where do you have Dillon ranked? Based on these numbers, it's top 15.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

ypc can be a backwards stat with short yardage backs. Should not be punished for being the guy that gets it at the one.

 

[Tau837]

3: Julio Jones: 157 targets, 102/1417/6 line

He's still performing like Julio Jones when he's on the field healthy. I think he pretty much forced his way to Tampa and with Godwin in the first year still post-ACL injury, I'm thinking Julio might find a lot more success than we currently understand down in Tampa. This even accounts for a peculiar lack of TDs his whole career that could go away with Brady. He's only a couple years older than a washed Randy Moss once was...

Julio in 2020-2021: 19 games, 116 targets, 82/1205/4 receiving

So, for context, you are projecting him to do more in 2021 than he did in the past 2 seasons combined, in every projected metric (targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs), and by mostly large margins at that.

Well, Gronk leaves 89 targets. Brown leaves 62. Tyler Johnson leaves 55 (he did get cut right?). That's 206. Godwin had 127. Is it crazy to take that 333, and split it to be 157 Julio, 118 Godwin, and 58 to Gage?

Godwin had 127 targets in 14 games, which is a 17 game pace of 154 targets. While he may open the season at less than 100%, we certainly do not know he will play less than 17 games. Barring additional injury, I see no chance that he gets only 118 targets.

Yes, I think it is crazy to assume that all 89 targets Gronk had will go to either Julio or Gage (since you reduced Godwin's number, you are clearly projecting him to get zero of Gronk's targets). For one thing, I don't think any of us would be surprised if Gronk plays this season. But even ignoring that, Tampa TEs got 169 of 716 targets last season. That is almost 24%. That could come down without Gronk, of course, but I doubt it will be as drastic a reduction as you seem to be projecting (66 for Brate + a portion of the 47 "other" targets you are projecting).

With regard to Julio vs. Gage, consider:

• For comparison to Julio, Gage had 138/1556/8 on 203 targets in 30 games. Better performance across the board.
• Contracts can be an indicator. TB signed Gage to a 3 year, $30M contract with $20M guaranteed and signed Julio to a 1 year $6M fully guaranteed contract. They committed considerably more to Gage.
• Timing can be an indicator. Gage signed on March 15 at the beginning of free agency. Julio signed July 26. We can't necessarily know if that was the preference of Julio and his agent or indicative of his market.

I would be surprised if Julio ends up with significantly more targets than Gage and shocked if he had 99 more targets as you are projecting, unless Gage misses a lot of games.

Julio is 33, and his PFF season grades seem to show a perfectly natural performance curve:

• 2011 - 70.8
• 2012 - 82.5
• 2013 - 80.8
• 2014 - 89.8
• 2015 - 92.5
• 2016 - 91.9
• 2017 - 91.7
• 2018 - 90.9
• 2019 - 90.6
• 2020 - 86.3
• 2021 - 74.2

IMO it would be surprising for him to reverse the trend.

Yeah, I mean, similar to last year, the most important takeaway to me is that he's super undervalued not that he's a surefire top 10 guy.

I am skeptical that he is undervalued by a non-trivial amount. His current ADP at FantasyPros is WR52. For reference, in checking one of my PPR leagues, WR52 last season was Landry, who had 61/719/4 on 106 targets. I think Julio's performance this season will be much closer to that stat line than the one you projected.


All that said, I really appreciate the effort and thread. Last year, you were very high on Mike Williams, and I was a skeptic. He wasn't as good as you projected, but you were right to be high on him. I don't see it happening with Julio, but I can't rule it out.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I don't have any super smart or statistical comments to add, I just thought i'd say that I really appreciate when people do stuff like this. It's super easy to think of your rankings in terms of what players did the year before, so I love this type of out of the box thinking. Frankly, I went through all my notes and magazines and pretty much everything and I didn't see one place or resource that had Kupp higher than about WR12 so massive kudos to you for this alone. Hard to imagine Lawrence doing what you describe but it's incredible food for thought. Thank you!

 

[tricky1066]

Hoping you nail the Trevor call. Picked him up with my last pick in my draft. He is my starter and only option, extremely short benches.

 

[Instinctive]

Quick check in at the halfway point:

• Lawrence feels like a win, but also like he's underperforming. Couple things to figure out still clearly, leaving him as TBD
• Murray is a win - definitely underperforming
• Etienne huge win
• AJ Dillon looking like a massive loss (although if Aaron Jones is hurt may end up technically right, feels spiritually very wrong still anyway)
• JuJu looking like a great call
• AJ Brown maybe even underestimated, a win there too
• Julio Jones first game back saw only around 10% target share, losing out to Scotty Miller and Cade Otton. So yeah not looking great here either