IMO....you have to look at him like you would a RB at the beginning of the season who won the job in camp. That's his floor.
No, his floor is one part of a RBBC for one week. Michael hasn't exactly earned anything more than a one week opportunity at this point.Not saying you should sell for a future 3rd, but his floor is no different than a lot of players that finally get a chance. His ceiling is the selling point, but it sounds like all the owners buying that ceiling have been owners of Michael for a while now.
I equate him to Rawls when Lynch went down and they didn't know the severity of the hamstring. Yeah...he might be a one week wonder, be part of a RBBC or be riding the pine if Lynch isn't hurt.....but at that moment of uncertainty.....his value is the starting RB in SEA. To me, Michael is no different right now. I certainly could get fair (if I approximated his value at RBBC for a week) value if I moved him this week....but who, after holding onto him for however long, is honestly is going to trade him for that right now? Last week?....I could see it. But today and up game time.....
he's a starting RB in the NFL with a world of talent behind a (presumably) elite line and should be viewed as such.
We don't know that he's starting -- we have some non-official speculation and some vague coach-speak about getting him more work. Even if he does completely usurp Randle's role, that role is < 15 carries / week. Guys with "a world of talent" typically aren't dumped for a conditional 7th -- elite athletic measurables, sure, but the bulk of the evidence thus far doesn't indicate elite overall talent as a RB. Great line or no, Dallas is struggling to move the ball on the ground -- they're middle of the pack in rushing on the season. It's probably not going to get any better until Romo and Dez return.
I own Michael and hope he comes out strong, but tons of people are being waaaaaay too optimistic in here. Yet again. I'll be more than happy with him looking better than Randle has, to the tune of a 11-50-0 or something, and hoping that he can wrest the feature job away by the end of the year when the team should be healthy and humming. Those expecting immediate FF-savior type impact are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment. Again.
It seems every year, guys come out of the woodwork to save someones fantasy situation. Hell....Dion Lewis is on pace to do it this year. He's been dumped several times for nothing. There's almost always a "That Guy" who the masses haven't heard of. I think the stigma of be traded by SEA is clouding peoples view of him* a bit unjustly.....and to be honest, I think those more in the know have aptly explained why he was moved.
If this guy were a rookie or young player whom DAL had traded up to the second to get and was rumored to be getting the RB1 tag for DAL....would you be more excited? I'm not one who thinks he's going 20 for 150 and 3TDs this weekend... I said earlier that I want to see him not make boneheaded mistakes and have moments where he reaches his perceived talent level...but I'm not one who's not going to shortchange his trade value because he doesn't have a track record either.
To me.....CMike right now is the same a me buying a lottery ticket at a store, not looking at the numbers and then a couple of days later finding out that a winning ticket was sold at that store. Do I have the winning ticket? Probably not. Would I sell that ticket for 100.00? Definitely not.
* Full Disclosure: I was clouded by it.