Regardless of how much of an expert anyone is or claims to be, I never accept absolutes. I filter their opinions through my own assessment. If some people (as you say foolishly) bought into Richardson and Michael based strictly on one poster's supposed expert lock, shame on them.squistion said:The misses focused on have pretty much all been players who we were told that success was guaranteed, barring an injury. We were repeatedly told that investing in these "can't miss" prospects was a no lose proposition: Trent Richardson was a "mortal lock" and Michael's success was "inevitable," etc.
Even if someone holds themselves out as an expert, writes for a publication that refers to him as an expert, he still shouldn't talk in absolutes IMO as no one can predict the future. This is important because we are dealing with peoples money, as few play in free dynasty leagues and if an expert goes out on a limb like this and tells them essentially you can't lose if you follow my advice, then some will (foolishly) believe it.
You may have noticed that I haven't called out any other experts and that is because I haven't seen any of them claim that their opinion is infallible. For instance, Bloom may say that he believes that a rookie probably does not possess the skill set to make it at the NFL level, but I have never seen him take it a step further and say "I guarantee this player will be a complete bust in the NFL" as EBF did with McFadden (who certainly failed to meet expectations but did have a great year fantasy wise in 2010).
IMO if one talks in absolutes and crows about the players they got right, then they should be held accountable for the players they got wrong.
Thats a pretty good motivator.http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/338704/christine-michael-has-had-an-awakening?ls=roto:SEA:topheadlines
Somebody knows they are this close from being out of football..........He's playing for his NFL life right now.
I don't think this means anything. The philosophy in Seattle is that every job is open to competition. That is one of Carroll's core beliefs. That's why they started Wilson as a rookie despite having just signed Flynn as a free agent. On many teams, that wouldn't have happened.In today's Footballguys' Daily E-mail Update, there was a reference to John Clayton's article suggesting Christine Michael has "a legitimate chance" to earn the starting role for Seattle. Sure, we have heard this before, but let us not dismiss this too quickly. After all, this is John Clayton, not some third-rate hack, suggesting this. While I am doubtful Michael actually prevails in this battle, it is telling that he has earned the right to be discussed as a potential starter. Michael has gone from being everyone's darling pick a couple seasons ago to being a fantasy tar baby, so his price may be minimal in many leagues. If you can get Michael with little investment, grab him and let this play out.
https://youtu.be/umDr0mPuyQcMichael has by far the most talent on the team in regards to RB'S, his problem has been work ethic not physical ability. If his head is on straight and it sounds like it is and hes working hard he will easily beat out all the backs on this team IMO.
There is going to be allot of doubting and negative comments in this thread about Michael as he's burned most of us. There will also be a contingent that sold or dropped and would hate to regret it. They will be the loudest here.
Michael is a physical beast. I could very well be wrong, but I don't think it's close talent wise between he and anyone on that RB roster.
Christine Michael rushed seven times for 44 yards in the Seahawks' preseason opener.
With Thomas Rawls (ankle) inactive, Michael started and put up 27 yards on Seattle's opening drive. He looked explosive as always and, perhaps more importantly, did not make any big mistakes. Clearly ahead of rookie Alex Collins, Michael would have considerable fantasy value if something happened to Rawls.
Aug 13 - 5:37 PM
Coach Pete Carroll stated after Saturday's preseason opener that the Seahawks' backfield will be a "one-two punch."
He's referring to Christine Michael in addition to Thomas Rawls. Michael has had a superb training camp by all accounts, and shined in Saturday's preseason opener against Kansas City, parlaying seven carries into 44 yards. A 2013 second-round pick, Michael has never lacked for talent but has long been short on maturity. The Seahawks claim he has matured since they reacquired C-Mike after he was cut by Dallas late last year. It's beginning to look like Michael could open the season with a role in Seattle's backfield. He's earning it.
Related: Thomas Rawls
Source: Bob Condotta on Twitter
Aug 13 - 9:15 PM
Same here.Zyphros said:I held him for 3 years only to drop him halfway through last year... Yes I'm mad bro. Oh well. He might have a long 4 year career of relevance ahead of him. He is 25 already (soon to be 26).
To be fair, the buzz has always been on the FF player side. Reports out of camp have never really been very positive.Why must this guy tease every year?
He busted one outside and turned the corner. Showed nice acceleration. As a Seattle fan it was nice to see the interior of the offensive line get push. Gilliam and Britt have moved to new spots, but Seattle has a new starter in all five positions.wdcrob said:Live feed mentioned all of the runs were inside, and that he broke tackles on most of them.
True, not like the team was gushing publicly when he had his meaningless TD run against the Packers 3rd string preseasons ago but we all were.To be fair, the buzz has always been on the FF player side. Reports out of camp have never really been very positive.
They're also 13-4 on days i've eaten Taco Bell.Seahawks are 13-4 in games Michael played in for them. He should play every game at the least
That much Taco Bell isn't good for anyone.They're also 13-4 on days i've eaten Taco Bell.
Until he isnt.
Just drafted him for a second time in my dynasty league....fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice....well, that's all on me.
He isn't even the leading Aggie in this regard.I have seen no one who genders as much hate and anger as this one player. Did he steal everyone's girlfriend? Even people who never had him come in these threads to condemn him.
What round did you get him in? Was thinking about burning 2.5 on him. I had him last year at one point too, but cut himJust drafted him for a second time in my dynasty league....fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice....well, that's all on me.
Yeah, I really like Rawls, and I think it may take a Rawls injury to make Michael fantasy significant. Nevertheless, at the price you can get him, Michael is at least a good handcuff. One concern I do have is how Michael approaches game preparation if he is being used only sparingly on game days. That may be the true test of Michael's maturity level.He looks really solid thus far. If there is ever an opportunity for him to get 15-20 touches I think he will almost certainly produce. The thing is, Rawls was by almost every metric one of the best RBs last year and Prosise is going to be involved when healthy. Michael may finally be putting it together but I'm not in love with his opportunity. Rawls would need to not be the same player we saw last year for Michael to be very relevant for fantasy purposes IMO.
SameSongNDance said:He looks really solid thus far. If there is ever an opportunity for him to get 15-20 touches I think he will almost certainly produce. The thing is, Rawls was by almost every metric one of the best RBs last year and Prosise is going to be involved when healthy. Michael may finally be putting it together but I'm not in love with his opportunity. Rawls would need to not be the same player we saw last year for Michael to be very relevant for fantasy purposes IMO.
I am not certain about this take. Pete Carrol has a long history of giving the hardest working, best performing players today, not last season, the opportunity to compete for starting jobs. Rawls was awesome last year and if he is healthy I don't doubt that he will start but I think Michael has an opportunity to significantly eat into Rawls touches.socrates said:Yeah, I really like Rawls, and I think it may take a Rawls injury to make Michael fantasy significant. Nevertheless, at the price you can get him, Michael is at least a good handcuff. One concern I do have is how Michael approaches game preparation if he is being used only sparingly on game days. That may be the true test of Michael's maturity level.
I don't think we're really disagreeing at all here. My point is no matter how good Michael looks/is I don't see this being anything more than a timeshare, that's what I mean by "I'm not loving his opportunity."I am not certain about this take. Pete Carrol has a long history of giving the hardest working, best performing players today, not last season, the opportunity to compete for starting jobs. Rawls was awesome last year and if he is healthy I don't doubt that he will start but I think Michael has an opportunity to significantly eat into Rawls touches.
For me the biggest impact of Michael's success is dropping Rawls draft stock at the same time as he is raising his own.
Prosise is a non-factor right now, he's missing a ton of valuable time and if Rawls/Michael produce he is going to mostly redshirt this year.
3.2 in a 12 team dynasty leaguemozzy84 said:What round did you get him in? Was thinking about burning 2.5 on him. I had him last year at one point too, but cut him
I actually think we are in agreement. Prosise has missed the crucial reps to be an immediate factor. A third down back, if that is the role Prosise is slated for, is required to understand blitz pickups and pass protection. The missed time seriously puts his immediate role in jeopardy, imo.I am not certain about this take. Pete Carrol has a long history of giving the hardest working, best performing players today, not last season, the opportunity to compete for starting jobs. Rawls was awesome last year and if he is healthy I don't doubt that he will start but I think Michael has an opportunity to significantly eat into Rawls touches.
For me the biggest impact of Michael's success is dropping Rawls draft stock at the same time as he is raising his own.
Prosise is a non-factor right now, he's missing a ton of valuable time and if Rawls/Michael produce he is going to mostly redshirt this year.
This is where I disagree with you, in part at least. As far as being a "feature back" you are probably right, although I think it is a greater than zero chance (even without injury, that's just how Carrol rolls), you can also say that, if Michael continues to impress with both attitude and gameplay, Rawls path to feature back status is also significantly diminished.I don't think we're really disagreeing at all here. My point is no matter how good Michael looks/is I don't see this being anything more than a timeshare, that's what I mean by "I'm not loving his opportunity."
A lot of the excitement for Michael in the past had to do with a perceived clear path to a feature role (if/when Lynch broke down, his stint in DAL). I still an enormous red flag that he botched his shot in Dallas. But anyway, with Rawls in the picture, Michael's path to a feature role is now pretty much zero barring injury.
From a fantasy perspective, relative to his current ADP he's good value but I expect his ADP to climb up until the start of the reg season. By that time, it's possible that a lot of his upside will already be priced in.
I don't know if Michael can get enough carries to be fantasy relevant but I am getting closer to saying that Rawls may no longer have the RB1 upside that everyone was predicting (barring an injury to Michael of course) and he may only end up being a mid-tier RB2.I actually think we are in agreement. Prosise has missed the crucial reps to be an immediate factor. A third down back, if that is the role Prosise is slated for, is required to understand blitz pickups and pass protection. The missed time seriously puts his immediate role in jeopardy, imo.
I get what you are saying about Rawls' success coming last season, but the talent and fit was apparent. Assuming healthy, we both agree Rawls gets the starting role. Michael's role likely takes the shine off of Rawls' fantasy stock, but even so, I am not sure Michael will have significant fantasy value sharing time as the 1b to Rawls' 1a. Yes, Michael will eat into Rawls' carries and value, but will that alone be enough to make him fantasy significant? (Note, I am not suggesting he will not be fantasy relevant.)
I have been recommending Michael for awhile, and I believe he has tremendous value. If Rawls gets injured or fails to play to last season's level (similar to Jeremy Hill last season), Michael could be a RB1.
Nah man, we're still in agreement haha. I was just extremely impressed with what Rawls did last year.This is where I disagree with you, in part at least. As far as being a "feature back" you are probably right, although I think it is a greater than zero chance (even without injury, that's just how Carrol rolls), you can also say that, if Michael continues to impress with both attitude and gameplay, Rawls path to feature back status is also significantly diminished.
Thanks that sounds about right, I don't think I could stomach burning my second on him when it came down to it3.2 in a 12 team dynasty league
Michael's positive play recently has not changed Rawls' RB1 upside one bit. If Rawls plays like he did last season, he will get the majority of the carries and have a shot at RB1. He may or may not play that well this season, but that doesn't really have much to do with Michael, it has to do with coming back from injury and potential regression, given that his level of play last season was elite.I don't know if Michael can get enough carries to be fantasy relevant but I am getting closer to saying that Rawls may no longer have the RB1 upside that everyone was predicting (barring an injury to Michael of course) and he may only end up being a mid-tier RB2.