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Christine Michael Volume 3: Inevitable Greatness Soon Achieved (2 Viewers)

Just Win Baby said:
Michael's positive play recently has not changed Rawls' RB1 upside one bit. If Rawls plays like he did last season, he will get the majority of the carries and have a shot at RB1. He may or may not play that well this season, but that doesn't really have much to do with Michael, it has to do with coming back from injury and potential regression, given that his level of play last season was elite.
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And if Michael plays as well as he has in the preseason then there is no question that he caps Rawls upside, regardless of what Rawls does on the field.  Rawls still has RB1 upside (I did qualify with "may") but that upside is getting less likely every time Michael has a positive report or play. 

They aren't saying being vague in their praise of Michael. It does not sound like coach speak either.  They are positively gushing about him.  The red flags are out for Rawls, not for his starting job (yet) but for the amount of PT he gets.

 
Zyphros said:
I held him for 3 years only to drop him halfway through last year... Yes I'm mad bro.  Oh well.  He might have a long 4 year career of relevance ahead of him.  He is 25 already (soon to be 26).
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Otoh, those of us who picked him up off waivers last season in a "what the heck, nobody else available is good" move ate :)

 
Just Win Baby said:
Michael's positive play recently has not changed Rawls' RB1 upside one bit. If Rawls plays like he did last season, he will get the majority of the carries and have a shot at RB1. He may or may not play that well this season, but that doesn't really have much to do with Michael, it has to do with coming back from injury and potential regression, given that his level of play last season was elite.
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So even with Michael's elite play Rawls hasn't lost one more carry to him a game? 

Lol you're letting your emotions get the best of you here. Of course Rawls has lost some upside. He's going to get 5-10 less carries a game until CM falls on his face or Rawls out plays him. Both of which could happen but even losing those carries for 2-3 games lowers his upside and if CM keeps playing this well they'll split like that the entire season. 

 
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Heck CM might get "more" carries than Rawls the first 2 weeks because of the injury and never look back. It's in the range of possible outcomes. 

 
Yea, I wouldn't feel comfortable owning Rawls in redraft unless I could get Michael as well. Situation is too volatile. 

 
we can speculate all we want on the potential outcomes but the genie has been let out of the bottle.  What will determine playing time is production side by side. Prior to camp that was not case so I'm not sure how many can say that Rawls so unaffected by CMs play. 

 
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We've always heard how good Christine is. And then he screws up. We've all seen guys that light up camp and look great in the preseason then flame out.

I'll believe he's turned the corner when I see it when the games count 

 
Milkman said:
So even with Michael's elite play Rawls hasn't lost one more carry to him a game? 

Lol you're letting your emotions get the best of you here. Of course Rawls has lost some upside. He's going to get 5-10 less carries a game until CM falls on his face or Rawls out plays him. Both of which could happen but even losing those carries for 2-3 games lowers his upside and if CM keeps playing this well they'll split like that the entire season. 
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I suppose if anyone thought Rawls' upside was to get every single RB carry on the season, then, yes, his upside has been lowered.

But anyone with a clue did not expect that. Lynch didn't get every carry. Before training camp and preseason, most would have expected Michael to be on the roster bubble and would have expected Prosise and Collins to be the RBs who would get the leftover carries and a lot of the RB targets. Now Prosise can't stay healthy and Collins has looked pedestrian, so the non-Rawls roles have been reversed at this point. Now Michael is poised to get the leftover touches after Rawls, Collins is on the roster bubble, and Prosise is much less likely to make an impact given he hasn't practiced hardly at all.

If Rawls comes out and plays like he did last season, he will dominate the RB touches. If he doesn't, and if Michael plays the regular season like he has so far in preseason, Michael will get a chance to take the job. But since the possibility remains that Rawls will pick up where he left off last season, his upside remains for now.

And it is no given Michael will maintain his preseason play when we get to the real games. We'll see.

 
Yeah he's lost some additional touches. It's possible he even loses an entire game or two. Why rush him back with CM playing so well. It's a long season. 

 
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Assuming Rawls isn't a head case, letting CM be the "starter" in a 1-2 punch could help keep CM focused. 

I watched a little of this weeks game. One of their RB is going to be awesome given how Wilson runs those read plays. If we only could know who. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
If Rawls comes out and plays like he did last season, he will dominate the RB touches. If he doesn't, and if Michael plays the regular season like he has so far in preseason, Michael will get a chance to take the job. But since the possibility remains that Rawls will pick up where he left off last season, his upside remains for now.
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There is a third option where Rawls continues to play as he did last season and Michael continues to play like he has in the preseason.  In that case I guarantee you, on a Pete Carrol coached team, Rawls will get fewer touches than expected and Michael will get more than expected.  So if they both continue form Rawls will lose more touches and his upside will be capped.

We won't know which scenario it will be for a couple weeks but right now Michael has played, and worked, himself into a larger role.  There is no denying that.  How big remains to be seen.

 
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Totally agree, but let's not pretend Rawls is some long tenured veteran. Having an abbreviated camp could be enough reason to be named 1B and allow Michael to trot out on field for first series in games.  

 
Um, :popcorn:

20 yard run followed by a 17 yard run. Gigantic holes, but he looks quick and made a nice move on the safety. ETA: Followed by a 10 yard run on the next series, followed by a nice block for Wilson in the flat. Have to think he's going to creep up a little from back end of the 10th in 12-team PPR re-draft. I think the 9th is my limit, but without reaching I'm liking what I see in terms of a higher-end backup/Rawls handcuff.

 
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Christine Michael rushed seven times for 58 yards in the Seahawks' third preseason game Thursday night.
A resurgent C-Mike now has 24 preseason carries for 157 yards, good for a 6.5 yards-per-carry average. He has both grinded out tough yards and showed big-play ability this August while earning the trust of the Seahawks' coaching staff. If you aren't taking Michael serious by now, your head is in the sand. Michael has dominated first-team snaps with Russell Wilson. Even if it isn't as the Seahawks' starter over Rawls, Michael has earned a meaningful early-season role in Seattle's post-Marshawn Lynch backfield.

 
 
 
Aug 26 - 12:07 AM
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Keep drafting Rawls in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Everything is fine. No reason to worry. This is fine. This is fine. 

 
Prosise coming in for 1st team 3rd down reps was not good. It means they trust him enough already to protect Wilson. Takes away any stand alone value C-Mike had. He's going to have to push Rawls (one of the best RB in the league last year) out of the way for an early down role. Meh......it could happen but chances are it doesn't. I still think he caps Rawls upside a little. Rawls will get no 3rd down snaps and I'd be surprised if he ever gets 20 carries or more with C-Mike playing this well. Why run either of them into the ground? 

 
Milkman said:
Prosise coming in for 1st team 3rd down reps was not good. It means they trust him enough already to protect Wilson. Takes away any stand alone value C-Mike had. He's going to have to push Rawls (one of the best RB in the league last year) out of the way for an early down role. Meh......it could happen but chances are it doesn't. I still think he caps Rawls upside a little. Rawls will get no 3rd down snaps and I'd be surprised if he ever gets 20 carries or more with C-Mike playing this well. Why run either of them into the ground? 
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Messy committee that needs injuries to probably max the value of cmike or rawls.as good as rawls numbers were he only had 9 catches . so his ppr value wasnt as great as everyone thinks. 

 
From what I've seen this preseason, he doesn't impress me from a talent perspective. Just looks like a bullet out of a gun.  Doesn't show any patience to set up his blocks and trips over his own feet a lot due to him leaning so much going through the holes.  

 
Milkman said:
Yeah he's lost some additional touches. It's possible he even loses an entire game or two. Why rush him back with CM playing so well. It's a long season. 
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Rawls isn't being rushed back. He could have played yesterday but its just preseason. Cmike is now being overdrafted and Rawls is being underdrafted. 

 
Milkman said:
50/50 split with C-Mike getting 3rd downs and Rawls getting Red Zone work. If that happens C-Mike with the safer floor and Rawls with the higher ceiling. Neither would be more than RB2's. 
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Prosise is going to be the 3rd down back/pass catching back. Rawls will get 15-20 carries and Cmike will get 5-8 carries a game. Rawls is the more powerful runner so I would guess he gets redzone work. Cmike is more of a speed/homerun type guy. You are dreaming (or just don't follow the hawks at all) if you think they split carries and you are dreaming if you think Cmike or Rawls get 3rd down work. Prosise was drafted for that role. 

 
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ImTheScientist said:
Prosise is going to be the 3rd down back/pass catching back. Rawls will get 15-20 carries and Cmike will get 5-8 carries a game. Rawls is the more powerful runner so I would guess he gets redzone work. Cmike is more of a speed/homerun type guy. You are dreaming (or just don't follow the hawks at all) if you think they split carries and you are dreaming if you think Cmike or Rawls get 3rd down work. Prosise was drafted for that role. 
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When I posted that Prosise was hurt and they were lining C-mike out wide and giving him 3rd down snaps. 

 
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Milkman said:
When I posted that Prosise was hurt and they were lining C-mike our wide and giving him 3rd down snaps. 
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Coo.... If Prosise was to be injured I would guess they find a way to stash Zac Brooks on the practice squad and bring him up for 3rd down duty. Brooks isn't worth an add though....neither is Prosise really.

 
I just turned down a projected late 1st for him.  Not selling early.  CJ Proise was a late 1st and no way I would swap Michael for CJ. 

I'm of the opinion he's a superior talent to the undrafted Rawls that surprised everyone. Michael has always had the talent a 2nd rd pick  which was Seattles first pick that year.  It also sounds like everyone is routing for him.

Had Rawls been a 1st rd pick I would be concerned as his leash would be long and Seattle would force the issue. I fully expect Michael to outplay Rawls early, he's acclimated to the offense and Rawls coming off an injury it will be hard for him to out perform Michael out of the gate.  I just think you add it all up its doesn't bode well for Rawls. 

The Fantasy community is always late to the show. 

 
T.Rex said:
I just turned down a projected late 1st for him.  Not selling early.  CJ Proise was a late 1st and no way I would swap Michael for CJ. 

I'm of the opinion he's a superior talent to the undrafted Rawls that surprised everyone. Michael has always had the talent a 2nd rd pick  which was Seattles first pick that year.  It also sounds like everyone is routing for him.

Had Rawls been a 1st rd pick I would be concerned as his leash would be long and Seattle would force the issue. I fully expect Michael to outplay Rawls early, he's acclimated to the offense and Rawls coming off an injury it will be hard for him to out perform Michael out of the gate.  I just think you add it all up its doesn't bode well for Rawls. 

The Fantasy community is always late to the show. 
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Interesting take, and I know you are not alone in thinking Michael is the superior talent.  I still cannot get over how good Rawls looked last season, though.  While I have been pushing Michael for awhile, even to criticism as recently as three weeks ago, I still believe Rawls emerges at the top here once he is completely healthy.  However, Rawls' value as a RB1 has taken a big hit with the emergence of Michael.  As good as Rawls looked last season, there is also no denying Michael looks like the talented back folks were gushing about a couple seasons ago.  Add the potential of Prosise stealing some third down work, and this is a mess for fantasy owners.  Michael has gone from overrated to underrated to possibly overpriced in a very short period.  As a Michael owner myself, I would have to think very hard about trading him for a late first.  I don't know that there is anyone in the late first of this draft who I feel has Michael's kind of potential, so despite the obvious road block of Rawls, I might be willing to gamble on Michael over the likes of Prosise, Dixon, Washington, Booker, etc, who all have their own roadblocks.

 
T.Rex said:
I just turned down a projected late 1st for him.  Not selling early.  CJ Proise was a late 1st and no way I would swap Michael for CJ. 

I'm of the opinion he's a superior talent to the undrafted Rawls that surprised everyone. Michael has always had the talent a 2nd rd pick  which was Seattles first pick that year.  It also sounds like everyone is routing for him.

Had Rawls been a 1st rd pick I would be concerned as his leash would be long and Seattle would force the issue. I fully expect Michael to outplay Rawls early, he's acclimated to the offense and Rawls coming off an injury it will be hard for him to out perform Michael out of the gate.  I just think you add it all up its doesn't bode well for Rawls. 

The Fantasy community is always late to the show. 
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I know it's early but most experts think this year was one of the worst fantasy rookie classes ever and next year projects to be one of the best. I would see if that guy still wants to deal. 

 
Just be careful, Michael ran 4 times for 11 yards in the first half. All his success came in the 2nd when the Hawks 1s (including RW) went against the Cowboys backups. The Seattle offensive line has potential to be historically bad. 

 
T.Rex said:
I just turned down a projected late 1st for him.  Not selling early.  CJ Proise was a late 1st and no way I would swap Michael for CJ. 

I'm of the opinion he's a superior talent to the undrafted Rawls that surprised everyone. Michael has always had the talent a 2nd rd pick  which was Seattles first pick that year.  It also sounds like everyone is routing for him.

Had Rawls been a 1st rd pick I would be concerned as his leash would be long and Seattle would force the issue. I fully expect Michael to outplay Rawls early, he's acclimated to the offense and Rawls coming off an injury it will be hard for him to out perform Michael out of the gate.  I just think you add it all up its doesn't bode well for Rawls. 

The Fantasy community is always late to the show. 
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Here is the problem with your thought process. Draft slot is meaningless to the Seahawks. Performance is everything and in live NFL action Rawls has been better than CMike. I love me some CMike but I really love me some Rawls. The line is better this year and we haven't seen Rawls behind the improved line. Rawls is also under contract for 3 more years while Cmike is only this year. Rawls isn't the physical athlete Michael is but Rawls has much better instincs/vision and has the run style the Seahawks prefer. Rawls vision/instincs are what makes him the better RB over Michael. I use to think Cmikes crazy athletic talent was all you needed but thats just not true. 

 
packer_junkie said:
Just be careful, Michael ran 4 times for 11 yards in the first half. All his success came in the 2nd when the Hawks 1s (including RW) went against the Cowboys backups. The Seattle offensive line has potential to be historically bad. 
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The interior line play has been 100x better than last year. Its actually something locally people are very excited about including local media. The only question mark is left tackle. You are confused or don't know what you are talking about. 

 
ImTheScientist said:
The interior line play has been 100x better than last year. Its actually something locally people are very excited about including local media. The only question mark is left tackle. You are confused or don't know what you are talking about. 
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Well that's good. The line struggled last year and they new people at every spot, none of them inspiring confidence. Great coaching might be paying off. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Well that's good. The line struggled last year and they new people at every spot, none of them inspiring confidence. Great coaching might be paying off. 
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The three interior guys are 330lbs each and have been getting push against every team they have played thus far. Even with the crap line last year the hawks were one of the top rushing teams in the NFL. That will continue. Pass protection has been much improved as well. I worry about left tackle but they are going with the same philosophy they had the last half of last year in the pass game in that they are focused on getting the ball out fast versus holding the ball.  

 
ImTheScientist said:
The three interior guys are 330lbs each and have been getting push against every team they have played thus far. Even with the crap line last year the hawks were one of the top rushing teams in the NFL. That will continue. Pass protection has been much improved as well. I worry about left tackle but they are going with the same philosophy they had the last half of last year in the pass game in that they are focused on getting the ball out fast versus holding the ball.  
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FWIW, before yesterday PFF had Hawks line as the worst pass blocking unit in preseason. 

 
@ImTheScientist thanks for the info, will definitely keep an eye. I didn't see what was so impressive about the run blocking from the  online last night though. They couldn't run the ball on Dallas D.

 
Ilov80s said:
@ImTheScientist thanks for the info, will definitely keep an eye. I didn't see what was so impressive about the run blocking from the  online last night though. They couldn't run the ball on Dallas D.
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Not sure if you saw the game or just checked the stats I don't watch all the preseason with the exception of the hawks and just check stats/highlights on the rest.....either way.... this is pretty accurate about the events.

http://www.hawkblogger.com/2016/08/morning-seahawks-calmly-dismantle-cowboys-27-17.html 

Read the offensive line column. He is always objective when it comes to the hawks....

 
ImTheScientist said:
Not sure if you saw the game or just checked the stats I don't watch all the preseason with the exception of the hawks and just check stats/highlights on the rest.....either way.... this is pretty accurate about the events.

http://www.hawkblogger.com/2016/08/morning-seahawks-calmly-dismantle-cowboys-27-17.html 

Read the offensive line column. He is always objective when it comes to the hawks....
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I watched the game. The success rushing came in the 2nd half against the backup defenders. I know he mentions that and he assumes it would have worked just as well against the starting D. I'm not sure we can make that assumption because we saw that when they did try to run against the starting D, it wasn't productive. 

 
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