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CJ2K bust factor vs. DMAC injury factor (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ppierce
- Start date
Shutout
Footballguy
I would take DMAC because the CJ factor is clearly much more likely to occur.
Like I said yesterday in your other post, With DMAC there is one factor to consider: is he playing? As long as that answer is yes, then you KNOW you're getting production. You can't say the same with CJ.
The reason you don't take CJ as such a high draft choice (or shouldn't) is because of his tendency to not perform. We mentioned it yesterday in your other thread and you saw how some people just refuse to believe it ("but he's a top 10 RB"). But you also saw how owners and previous owners testified that yes, its true. You really have to look at his PPG and not just his ranking to understand how detrimental he can be to your team.
here's an example I find telling. I've already mentioned a few times about he tends to get less than 10 points in half his games (and I was really surprised at just how many people actually thought that was untrue). Anyways, when you pick CJ with a high first round pick, you are almost guaranteeing yourself a disadvantage. yes, he gets good aggregate numbers, but given where you pick him, he does NOT create an advantage for you on a weekly basis except about 25% of the time. the rest of the year you feel compelled to start him (I mean, how can you SIT your 1st round pick with the big name?) but he is either comparable or LESS effective than a lot of random players you could be playing or flexing.
I pulled a name out of my head. Nate washington. I thought, let's make a comparison and since Nate is on the same team, its a little easier to compare because they have the same bye week and play in the same team circumstances. Where was Nate washington drafted last year? Was he WR60 or something? Proabbaly being picked up in rounds 10+?
When you compare those guys and say you started CJ every week and I started this random Nate washington as a flex, would it surprise you to find out that only 7 weeks out of 16 that CJ would have beaten my Nate Washington? The other 9 games, I would ahve won that battle. So, the guy that one person takes as a top 10 overall can't hold up against a guy I added when I was thinking I need a WR4/flex. There is NOBODY that you would conceivably think of drafting in the first round (maybe the 2nd) that offers that kind of disadvantage unless that player is injured. Just another way of looking at it.
Like I said yesterday in your other post, With DMAC there is one factor to consider: is he playing? As long as that answer is yes, then you KNOW you're getting production. You can't say the same with CJ.
The reason you don't take CJ as such a high draft choice (or shouldn't) is because of his tendency to not perform. We mentioned it yesterday in your other thread and you saw how some people just refuse to believe it ("but he's a top 10 RB"). But you also saw how owners and previous owners testified that yes, its true. You really have to look at his PPG and not just his ranking to understand how detrimental he can be to your team.
here's an example I find telling. I've already mentioned a few times about he tends to get less than 10 points in half his games (and I was really surprised at just how many people actually thought that was untrue). Anyways, when you pick CJ with a high first round pick, you are almost guaranteeing yourself a disadvantage. yes, he gets good aggregate numbers, but given where you pick him, he does NOT create an advantage for you on a weekly basis except about 25% of the time. the rest of the year you feel compelled to start him (I mean, how can you SIT your 1st round pick with the big name?) but he is either comparable or LESS effective than a lot of random players you could be playing or flexing.
I pulled a name out of my head. Nate washington. I thought, let's make a comparison and since Nate is on the same team, its a little easier to compare because they have the same bye week and play in the same team circumstances. Where was Nate washington drafted last year? Was he WR60 or something? Proabbaly being picked up in rounds 10+?
When you compare those guys and say you started CJ every week and I started this random Nate washington as a flex, would it surprise you to find out that only 7 weeks out of 16 that CJ would have beaten my Nate Washington? The other 9 games, I would ahve won that battle. So, the guy that one person takes as a top 10 overall can't hold up against a guy I added when I was thinking I need a WR4/flex. There is NOBODY that you would conceivably think of drafting in the first round (maybe the 2nd) that offers that kind of disadvantage unless that player is injured. Just another way of looking at it.
solorca
Footballguy
This is a great response, and the exact reason that I was thrilled when the person in front of me took Chris Johnson instead of Mcfadden (or Forte, who I was also debating).
convinced me to take CJ2k off of my #4 pick radar. its now down to dmac vs megatron (ppr)
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Couple of points in Chris Johnson's favor to consider.
1. You don't draft this year based on last years stats.
2. He started slow last year because of he reported late with the contract situation.
3. His second half splits were 26 catches, 893 total yards, and 3 touchdowns. Anyone would take 52-1786-6 in a heartbeat especially where the six touchdowns are the most likely number to climb because TDs are a more random stat.
4. I need some further explanation from the guy that said Chris Johnson is more likely to bust than McFadden is to get hurt. McFadden hasn't played more than 13 games in a season yet in his career. Four years in a row of missing games is a pretty good trend that the guy is going to get hurt again and much more likely than Johnson busting because he had a slow start last year.
1. You don't draft this year based on last years stats.
2. He started slow last year because of he reported late with the contract situation.
3. His second half splits were 26 catches, 893 total yards, and 3 touchdowns. Anyone would take 52-1786-6 in a heartbeat especially where the six touchdowns are the most likely number to climb because TDs are a more random stat.
4. I need some further explanation from the guy that said Chris Johnson is more likely to bust than McFadden is to get hurt. McFadden hasn't played more than 13 games in a season yet in his career. Four years in a row of missing games is a pretty good trend that the guy is going to get hurt again and much more likely than Johnson busting because he had a slow start last year.
Give that man his money.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Awesome.
We Tigers
Footballguy
Shutout laid it down. An extension of that is an injury to DMC not being that big a downside. Yeah, if he has a season ender like last year, you're screwed--but I'd argue he's no more at risk for that kind of injury than Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, or any of the other excellent players who saw their 2011 cut short.
I can buy the concern that he'll get nicked because of his aggressive and sometimes upright running style, but if he misses two, three, four games? Sucks, but it's not like you don't get to start anyone else while he's out. Put it this way: would you rather have 16 games averaging 12 ppg, or 12 games averaging 16 ppg, plus 4 games of a replacement player averaging 6-8 ppg?
I think CJ can bounce back this year, but I'd take McFadden any day. When he's played since his breakout, he's not only been a monster, but been extremely consistent in his week to week production. That's pretty unusual and exceptional, even for a top tier RB.
I can buy the concern that he'll get nicked because of his aggressive and sometimes upright running style, but if he misses two, three, four games? Sucks, but it's not like you don't get to start anyone else while he's out. Put it this way: would you rather have 16 games averaging 12 ppg, or 12 games averaging 16 ppg, plus 4 games of a replacement player averaging 6-8 ppg?
I think CJ can bounce back this year, but I'd take McFadden any day. When he's played since his breakout, he's not only been a monster, but been extremely consistent in his week to week production. That's pretty unusual and exceptional, even for a top tier RB.
We Tigers
Footballguy
I don't have CJ's numbers on hand, but I did run McFadden's numbers the other day. In 20 games, he hit double digit fantasy points 15 times. His games under 11.4--his lowest double digit score--were 6.8, 7.6, 6.5, 3, and 0.7 (the game he got hurt last season). He also had 4 absurd games, going for 26.3, 29.8, 43.6, and 38.9. And those are without PPR.So: he got you insane scores 20% of the time, scores between 11.4 and 21 (averaging 15.5) 55% of the time, over 6 points 20% of the time, and total garbage 10% of the time. Whoever wants to crunch the CJ career numbers--greatly appreciated!
Grahamburn
Footballguy
No.Nobody would be drafting Chris Johnson in the first round of a fantasy draft if they thought they were getting 2011 production. 2008 - 1,228 rushing, 260 receiving, 10 TDs. 9 games of at least 100 total yards or a TD.2009 - 2,006 rushing, 503 receiving, 16 TDs. 13 games of at least 100 total yards or a TD.2010 - 1,364 rushing, 245 receiving, 12 TDs. 10 games of at least 100 total yards or a TD.2011 - 1,047 rushing, 418 receiving, 4 TDs. 5 games of at least 100 total yards or a TD.Which season is the outlier?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Neither will bust, but DMC is a bigger risk/reward play because of injury history.
One other thing, the player holdout and lack of team preparation adversely effected the Titans' offense more than most others. Also, running QBs like Locker open up running lanes.
CJ bounces back this year and is a very solid pick in the middle to late first round.
One other thing, the player holdout and lack of team preparation adversely effected the Titans' offense more than most others. Also, running QBs like Locker open up running lanes.
CJ bounces back this year and is a very solid pick in the middle to late first round.
yeah but i pick 4 and am debating between cj2k, megatron and dmac. won't take rogers.
fantasyjoker
Footballguy
I too am debating between cj2k and dmac at #4. I refuse to take megatron or rodgers. Everytime I do I end up with less than stellar RB's even if I go RB/RB in 2 and 3 so I am dead set on taking one of these guys. Forte was never in the conversation as far as I'm concerned.Does .5ppr make either one better? I really am leaning toward taking dmac and hoping for the best.
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Run It Up
Footballguy
So throughout his career CJ2K has been very boom or bust (a point I made in the other thread, that you eluded to), still finishing top 10 every year (a point I made in the other thread, that you eluded to).And throughout DMAC's Career he has never played more than 13 games... in four years...You rattle off interesting facts about CJ, the best one ive heard came from a great guy on twitter, @FantasyDouche.
o you want Mcfadden when healthy for 13 games if youre lucky (and his 2.5 ppg avg more than CJ2k, '10 and '11), or do you want guaranteed season long production, with an even higher ceiling and floor?
This is literally the only thing you need to know about Chris Johnson. It isnt pretty, it likely wont ever be pretty. But hes guaranteed to get his touches which in the NFL and FF is a godsend. DMac is one wet piece of tissue away from being the man version of Ryan Mathews.Fantasy is about balancing PPGs with Consistency and this is as close as your gonna get to a good argument one way or the other.Chris Johnson Averaging 350 touches with one record breaking season. DMac averaging 11.25 games a season with 7 injuries.Really what it comes down to, and why it hasnt been brought up yet IDK
o you want Mcfadden when healthy for 13 games if youre lucky (and his 2.5 ppg avg more than CJ2k, '10 and '11), or do you want guaranteed season long production, with an even higher ceiling and floor?
Banger
Footballguy
Why is it more likely to occur for CJ? CJ has busted one time (and finished 16th) and outside of that has finished 11th, 1st and 5th. DMAC has played in 13, 12, 13 and 7 games over his 4 years finishing 45, 56th, 6 and 34th and DMAC is safer?I say give me the guy that has top 10 downside over the guy that has finished top 10 ONCE in his 4 years.
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fantasyjoker
Footballguy
What about QB play and O-line not to mention schedule?
Shouldn't these play a factor in your decision as well?
CJ2k - Rookie QB, o-line not great, tough schedule. Lets not forget mediocre WR's at best (who knows how britt will be). Teams will stack the box and cj will probably find tough sledding.
Dmac - Vet QB, zone-blocking o-line, mediocre wr's as well, but a bit easier schedule. Will dmac get hurt, probably. But will it be season ending is the question.
Dmac is the ultimate risk/reward pick. Cj is the safe pick.
Shouldn't these play a factor in your decision as well?
CJ2k - Rookie QB, o-line not great, tough schedule. Lets not forget mediocre WR's at best (who knows how britt will be). Teams will stack the box and cj will probably find tough sledding.
Dmac - Vet QB, zone-blocking o-line, mediocre wr's as well, but a bit easier schedule. Will dmac get hurt, probably. But will it be season ending is the question.
Dmac is the ultimate risk/reward pick. Cj is the safe pick.
Banger
Footballguy
I think DMAC is a bigger risk but not a better reward....he's never finished #1 or #5... CJ has.
oof.rethinking situation
Run It Up
Footballguy
25 not counting his 18 missed games?Just curious I just ran a bunch of PPG numbers cause I cant find a reasonable source anywhere online and I didnt wanna do it again.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Take it to the AC forum.
Banger
Footballguy
not counting missed games...just going off the game logs. Granted many of those really poor games were in the first couple years but we're talking about risk and to me if something happens every year = 100% (getting hurt) and something happens once in 4 years = 25% (busting)...I'm not a genius but....
Shutout
Footballguy
Actually, the answer is yes when you look at individual points per game. in 2011- 7 games less than 8 points.2010- 6 games less than 8 points2009- 2 games (and of course that was his monster year)2008- 6 games less than 8 points.Of course, there is dismissing of any year but the term "outlier" was used above and there probably does need to be some consideration that the GREAT year that everyone likes to point to was three years ago. Three years removed is a long time for a RB on just about any account.But the track history show that, in the other 48 games in his career, 40% of those games clock in at less than 8-10 points a game. If you want to dive into it a bit deeper and look at only weeks 1-13 (maybe wanting to see if he tends to fade, surge, or basically "is he helpiong me get INTO the playoffs), then its 45% of the time. So, close to half of the time, this is occurring with Chris johnson.
Don't rethink too much.I'm not saying either opinion is right or wrong, but the stat above looks (at a quick glance) accurate...technically.But clearly doesn't account for the fact that Darren McFadden just didn't seem to "get it" till year three. Since he emerged as a viable frontline talent, his consistency has been off the charts. He just appears to have been a guy who took a few years to get up to full NFL readiness.
Shutout
Footballguy
I suppose its all in your perspective. Maybe in a vacuum it appears clear in one way. But what happens when you consider the ADP and what you paid to get them each year and combine that with the fact that decision that must be made. When CJ plays, you can't sit him. even though he may turn in >8 points 40% of the time. But when DMAC plays, he averages more points per game AND if he's out when injured, you can play another player (like nate washington) and score just as well as CJ more 57% of the time (in the Nate washington example). Another thing that is misleading when people are drawing that stat about DMAC performing less than 10 points 55% of the time in 45 games is that those 45 games weren't starts. When you make that comparison, you need to keep in mind that Chris Johnson has started 63 of his 63, while DMACE was a starter for only 32 of the 45.
Banger
Footballguy
agreed but he along with production consistency has been the injury consistency. It boils down to your comfort level with essentially a top 10 downside vs. very good PPG numbers but missing 25% of the season every year.
Oh, definitely not discounting the injury factor. Tolerance of and belief in that are main determining factors on where DMC should be valued.Just wanted to be sure people were clear on the nature of that stat. Since it honestly seemed to have people believing that DMC's performance in games he was playing in had been less consistent than CJ's. That's just not the case at over the last couple years.
Banger
Footballguy
their ADP is nearly identical...we can spin stats all day long but it all boils down to whether you think that CJ is fading into oblivion or if last year was a blip on the radar. I think the later. Don't get me wrong I like DMAC and I think they are essentially a coin flip but the reason for me that I would choose CJ when they are sitting side by side is the near guarantee that DMAC will miss time and it's a question of how much.
Shutout
Footballguy
VERY MISLEADING.Chris Johnson was a starter in 62 of the 63 games.DMAC was a starter in 32 of the 45. So, if you account for how many of those games were "less than 10 points" in games he started you're % drops dramatically. In the past two years when he was a starter in earnest, he has had only 4 games of 10 points or less. So, your overall % is 13% and if you want to cut it up very simply and just look at the past two years of unquesitoned starting (20 games played), its 20%, or half of Chris Johnson's 40% of games at less than 10%. that's why DMAC is safer. He's better when he plays, twice as more consistently.
Banger
Footballguy
ya, I was just having fun with the numbers....they are all true but most were in the 1st 2 years. What has been true throughout though is the fact that he's been consistently injured. If you can live with that you should choose DMAC.
Shutout
Footballguy
Its not that at all..on any point.in 2010, CJ had a top 2 ADP. McFadden was no where in that range. Last year, they WERE closer.It has nothing to do with the thought CJ is fading and certainly nothing to do with if last year was a blip. The blip was 2009 when CJ performed extremely well. All the other years are the norm (6,6,and 7 games of <10 points in those years). He is consistently inconsistent, for lack of a better way to say it. Don't get hung up on a tale of three seasons ago. Compare the apples. Look at them both, over the years in which they have both been starters and look at which one has given you more and which one is also easier to have a backup plan for. Part of the risk equation is having a backup plan, regardless of how much some people want to say "but CJ can get me 30 points and win my week!" So can DMAC, and he lets you down far less of the time.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Doesn't this occur with every running back? Where are the players consistently putting up 8+ points per game? What is the determination for consistency? 60% over 8, 70%?You seem to make a point of defending this line of thinking in threads pertaining to Chris Johnson, but I don't see it on any other players. Which players are consistently scoring 8+ points per game more often than CJ has, and where are they going in drafts?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
He was leading the league in rushing before going down last year.
Shutout
Footballguy
I honestly don't know the answer of ALL players. But a quick scan of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Shady show that in the last 2 years COMBINED, it has happened to Foster 2 times in TWO years
Shady 3 times in TWO years
Rice 5 times in TWO years
so, in a quick look, as compared to the other consensus top backs, I would have to say no, doesn't happen that often and about 10% seems to be the average among what we would call elite backs. DMAC comes in at 20%, CJ at 40%.
We Tigers
Footballguy
This does indeed occur with almost every running back, which is why it's notable that it very rarely happens with Darren McFadden.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Is it possibly because he cant play enough games for this to develop?
ponchsox
Footballguy
I will most likely be taking one of these two at #9 on Friday. I keep flipping back and forth on who I'm going to take. I'd like to think CJ is the safer pick, but is he really? I love DMAC's upside and if he ever found a way to finish all 16 games he could end up top 3 in RB points. I may end up flipping a coin on who I'm taking.
Banger
Footballguy
2 years ago CJ still finished 5th...something McFadden has yet to do. Yes he's done great on a PPG basis but you're disregarding that he misses time every year. Using my rearview mirror was McFadden a better value on a PPG basis? Absolutely. Did you predict his breakout 2 years ago? If you saw it coming and did, congrats but most of the FF community didn't see it coming. This year is this year and their ADP is side by side and the thread is CJ bust factor vs. DMAC injury factor not a DMAC historical value thread. The way I see it CJ has "busted" one time...yes within those years he has up and down weeks and there isn't a tight range of points that he gets but if at the end of the year he ends up top 5 like he did in '09 and '10 then I'm a happy man because he's helped me win a lot of games. There's no doubt that CJ is a home run hitter and as such he's going to have huge games and some games where he doesn't break one. I don't think that would shock anyone that he's not a grind it out kind of back that consistently goes for 22-85...I had him last year and had to struggle through his year...it was maddening. I had a strong team and still made it the SB in spite of his struggles. I also had him the prior years and he was terrific.
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We Tigers
Footballguy
I guess, but 13 games in 2010 with just 3 under 11 points looks pretty good. I'm not sure sample size/type matters much here unless other player's bum games come at the end of a season, of which I don't see much evidence. That would make last year's 7-game campaign a bit small for consideration.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Head coach Dennis Allen said the team will not "baby" Darren McFadden this season.
It's exactly what we want to hear out of an aggressive head coach. McFadden is 100 percent healthy and has looked extremely explosive throughout camp. "I mean, [running back] is a tough position. They take some shots and that's part of football," Allen said. "We can't baby him. We can't protect him. We got to go out there and play football and give him an opportunity to carry the ball, and we hope that he's able to stay healthy." McFadden is overdue for some good luck on the injury front this year. His statistical ceiling is monstrous as a wildly talented three-down back.
This is actually kind of concerning. Can McFadden carry this heavy workload? Last year he had Bush to back him up. Will this increase his chances of getting hurt?
It's exactly what we want to hear out of an aggressive head coach. McFadden is 100 percent healthy and has looked extremely explosive throughout camp. "I mean, [running back] is a tough position. They take some shots and that's part of football," Allen said. "We can't baby him. We can't protect him. We got to go out there and play football and give him an opportunity to carry the ball, and we hope that he's able to stay healthy." McFadden is overdue for some good luck on the injury front this year. His statistical ceiling is monstrous as a wildly talented three-down back.
This is actually kind of concerning. Can McFadden carry this heavy workload? Last year he had Bush to back him up. Will this increase his chances of getting hurt?
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Run It Up
Footballguy
Hes never carried more than 220 some odd times, less than the most Charles has ever carried.
corpcow
Footballguy
Exactly. 2011 was by far his worst season, and it's easy to attribute that to his holdout and the lack of an offseason. He was trending upwards towards the end of the season - and finishing as RB8 over the second half of the season. Ignoring game to game consistency, it's really hard to say that Darren is "better" or represents a higher ceiling vs. the risk. McFadden is the very definition of risk & upside. CJ's 2011 was his 4th best year, and would have been DMC's 2nd best. He's had at least 250 carries in all 4 of his seasons - something McFadden hasn't done once, and hasn't been able to stay healthy and play a full season even with a lighter workload. DMC's career YPC is lower than CJ's. DMC has scored 16 rushing TDs in his entire career, where CJ has two years of double digit carries. (For those of you who said that DMC didn't start, let's also not forget that CJ shared a backfield his rookie year). In any case - look at the two reasons for disappointing numbers last year - DMC had yet another season ending injury, and CJ had a holdout/offseason. Which do you think is easier to correct? CJ has already shown a lot this offseason, looked EXCELLENT in that last preseason game, and all reports about him working out with the team and being in ridiculously great shape.DMC just seems to get hurt a lot. I don't know if it's his upright running style, his body, or what - but the fact remains that he is oft injured. Can he play a full season this year? Perhaps. We'll see.
Chris Johnson - He has had multiple games in the last two years with near or under 2 yards per carry. That does not deserve a pick in the first round.
vs Broncos in 2010 - 16 carries, 34 yards
vs Texans in 2010 - 7 carries, 5 yards
vs Broncos in 2011 - 13 carries, 21 yards
vs Falcons in 2011 - 12 carries, 13 yards
vs Saints in 2011 - 11 carries, 23 yards
His ability to be a complete bust will lose you a few games this season.
To be honest, I put him in the same category as Reggie Bush. Reggie actually had more fantasy points over the second half of the season last year and can be had a few rounds after Chris Johnson.
vs Broncos in 2010 - 16 carries, 34 yards
vs Texans in 2010 - 7 carries, 5 yards
vs Broncos in 2011 - 13 carries, 21 yards
vs Falcons in 2011 - 12 carries, 13 yards
vs Saints in 2011 - 11 carries, 23 yards
His ability to be a complete bust will lose you a few games this season.
To be honest, I put him in the same category as Reggie Bush. Reggie actually had more fantasy points over the second half of the season last year and can be had a few rounds after Chris Johnson.
Run It Up
Footballguy
LMFAO, I love this logic.I forgot everyone plays in leagues where players on the IR get points.
Its entirely possible they both miss.Ive already taken CJ in a few leagues and plan to in a few more. Its entirely possible he gets injured.Its also entirely possible Mcfadden plays 16 games, but after his injury history he doesnt even finish the season the starter...
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This explains a few of your posts.
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