CJ2K bust factor vs. DMAC injury factor (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

This discussion is pretty much ensuring a CJ2K injury early in the year, you all know that, right?

LOL! So true. Actually, it probably means that both DMAC and Cj will suck the suck and Ryan Matthews will be the #1 RB in the land (PPG of course)

 

[Shutout]

Chris Johnson - He has had multiple games in the last two years with near or under 2 yards per carry. That does not deserve a pick in the first round. vs Broncos in 2010 - 16 carries, 34 yards vs Texans in 2010 - 7 carries, 5 yardsvs Broncos in 2011 - 13 carries, 21 yardsvs Falcons in 2011 - 12 carries, 13 yardsvs Saints in 2011 - 11 carries, 23 yardsHis ability to be a complete bust will lose you a few games this season.To be honest, I put him in the same category as Reggie Bush. Reggie actually had more fantasy points over the second half of the season last year and can be had a few rounds after Chris Johnson.

There is a NFL RB who over a two year period had games of:15 for 3310 for 2014 for 2820 for 3314 for 28 again19 for 41Back to that in second. Personally I really like both Chris Johnson and McFadden this year and don't think you go wrong with either one. But IMO the negatives on Johnson are being overstated. Poster above points at Johnson's games with a bad ypc. Ok but it's ironic that he and McFadden share the exact same 4.8 career ypc. Johnson has just maintained that over twice as many carries. And career TDs favor Johnson to a tune of 42 in 63 career games (0.67 pg) to McFadden's 20 in 45 games (.44 pg). All the talk of inconsistency is really overstated as well. People act as if they will be rolling Johnson out by himself in weekly matchups. Like with anybody on your roster, there will be other players on your team that will more than compensate for down weeks from an individual player. If you are going to say Johnson will lose you weeks with his poor performances then you have to say he will when weeks for you with his good ones. There is a point to be made for consistency but much is often made too much of it and particularly in this case.The RB I referenced above is named Barry Sanders. Do you think he deserved a pick in the first round of drafts? Would you put him in the same category as Reggie Bush?

It is SO funny that you bring that up as an example. The Best year I ever had in FF was in 1998 when I had the 2nd overall pick and the guy picking #1 took Barry Sanders. He was just SO all over how he had just come off a 2k season DESPITE starting the first two games with a total of 53 yards (your first two examples in your post). I took Terrell Davis, the guy that had missed a game the year before and there were questions about his durability. Can definitely relate that to this topic.

 

[VaTerp]

Chris Johnson - He has had multiple games in the last two years with near or under 2 yards per carry. That does not deserve a pick in the first round. vs Broncos in 2010 - 16 carries, 34 yards vs Texans in 2010 - 7 carries, 5 yardsvs Broncos in 2011 - 13 carries, 21 yardsvs Falcons in 2011 - 12 carries, 13 yardsvs Saints in 2011 - 11 carries, 23 yardsHis ability to be a complete bust will lose you a few games this season.To be honest, I put him in the same category as Reggie Bush. Reggie actually had more fantasy points over the second half of the season last year and can be had a few rounds after Chris Johnson.

There is a NFL RB who over a two year period had games of:15 for 3310 for 2014 for 2820 for 3314 for 28 again19 for 41Back to that in second. Personally I really like both Chris Johnson and McFadden this year and don't think you go wrong with either one. But IMO the negatives on Johnson are being overstated. Poster above points at Johnson's games with a bad ypc. Ok but it's ironic that he and McFadden share the exact same 4.8 career ypc. Johnson has just maintained that over twice as many carries. And career TDs favor Johnson to a tune of 42 in 63 career games (0.67 pg) to McFadden's 20 in 45 games (.44 pg). All the talk of inconsistency is really overstated as well. People act as if they will be rolling Johnson out by himself in weekly matchups. Like with anybody on your roster, there will be other players on your team that will more than compensate for down weeks from an individual player. If you are going to say Johnson will lose you weeks with his poor performances then you have to say he will when weeks for you with his good ones. There is a point to be made for consistency but much is often made too much of it and particularly in this case.The RB I referenced above is named Barry Sanders. Do you think he deserved a pick in the first round of drafts? Would you put him in the same category as Reggie Bush?

It is SO funny that you bring that up as an example. The Best year I ever had in FF was in 1998 when I had the 2nd overall pick and the guy picking #1 took Barry Sanders. He was just SO all over how he had just come off a 2k season DESPITE starting the first two games with a total of 53 yards (your first two examples in your post). I took Terrell Davis, the guy that had missed a game the year before and there were questions about his durability. Can definitely relate that to this topic.

Sorry to hear your best FF season was a decade and a half ago. I see where you're trying to go with that. But there are some significant differences in trying to make that comparison as well.But my point was simply this. You can make a very good argument as to why you prefer McFadden over Johnson. That's fine. But Johnson's inconsistency is being overstated AND my real point is that the suggestion above that he is not worthy of a first round pick and is in the same category as Reggie Bush is a ridiculous statement going into the 2012 season.

 

[One]

There really is no wrong answer here.

CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.

It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

 

[Run It Up]

There really is no wrong answer here.CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

 

[G5781]

There really is no wrong answer here.CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

In DMAC's last 20 games hes had 2,432 total yards, 66 rec and 15 total TD's. That comes out to about 1,950 total yards, 52 receptions and 12 total TD's for 16 games. With Bush now gone, you would think his TD numbers should go up (similar to Ray Rice last year). Theyre also using him more as a receiver having him line up out wide. I think the 16 game average above would represent his ceiling with an uptick in TD's and receptions. Of course, the 16 games is most critical but i think if he does end up playing 16 games (big if i know) then 2,000 yards, 60 catches and 15 TD's is what we're looking at.

 

[Run It Up]

There really is no wrong answer here.CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

In DMAC's last 20 games hes had 2,432 total yards, 66 rec and 15 total TD's. That comes out to about 1,950 total yards, 52 receptions and 12 total TD's for 16 games. With Bush now gone, you would think his TD numbers should go up (similar to Ray Rice last year). Theyre also using him more as a receiver having him line up out wide. I think the 16 game average above would represent his ceiling with an uptick in TD's and receptions. Of course, the 16 games is most critical but i think if he does end up playing 16 games (big if i know) then 2,000 yards, 60 catches and 15 TD's is what we're looking at.

So you cant give me a projection based in reality? Your claiming if he plays a 16 game season he outproduces his already ridiculous numbers simply because bush isnt there... Bush the guy responsible for vulturing at most 6 tds from Mcfadden in the two years they played healthy games together. The dude has never carried the ball more than 220 times, what makes you think that because Bush is gone he is suddenly the only Back in Oakland. Ive read the same reports as you, I know what the coaches are saying, but I also know when it comes down to it there is no way they run their best player into the ground (chances are he still gets hurt). Ive seen nothing to suggest he can even carry the ball 300 times, let alone outproduce his old numbers.Dmacs situation is in no way similar to Rices.

 

[Grahamburn]

Is anyone else extremely bored with Darren McFadden's glaringly obvious caveat?

 

[Teef]

There really is no wrong answer here.

CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.

It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.

Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

In DMAC's last 20 games hes had 2,432 total yards, 66 rec and 15 total TD's. That comes out to about 1,950 total yards, 52 receptions and 12 total TD's for 16 games. With Bush now gone, you would think his TD numbers should go up (similar to Ray Rice last year). Theyre also using him more as a receiver having him line up out wide. I think the 16 game average above would represent his ceiling with an uptick in TD's and receptions. Of course, the 16 games is most critical but i think if he does end up playing 16 games (big if i know) then 2,000 yards, 60 catches and 15 TD's is what we're looking at.

So you cant give me a projection based in reality? Your claiming if he plays a 16 game season he outproduces his already ridiculous numbers simply because bush isnt there... Bush the guy responsible for vulturing at most 6 tds from Mcfadden in the two years they played healthy games together. The dude has never carried the ball more than 220 times, what makes you think that because Bush is gone he is suddenly the only Back in Oakland. Ive read the same reports as you, I know what the coaches are saying, but I also know when it comes down to it there is no way they run their best player into the ground (chances are he still gets hurt). Ive seen nothing to suggest he can even carry the ball 300 times, let alone outproduce his old numbers.Dmacs situation is in no way similar to Rices.

I think you should draft Chris Johnson.

 

[Run It Up]

I think you should draft Chris Johnson.

Done deal, anything to add to the discussion?

 

[Teef]

I think you should draft Chris Johnson.

Done deal, anything to add to the discussion?

I'm glad I could help you.

 

[ppierce]

big dress rehersal for CJ tonight. will be watching

 

[Manster]

I lean toward DMAC more likely to get hurt. He has the history.

And I know its pre season, but CJ has looked explosive. I just dont see how he wont increase his weekly production this year. Not really worried about Locker either.

 

[ponchsox]

big dress rehersal for CJ tonight. will be watching

This. Right now I am taking DMAC but if CJ looks explosive tonight I might change my mind. My draft is tomorrow.

 

[LHUCKS]

but if CJ looks explosive tonight I might change my mind. My draft is tomorrow.

he looked great last game, would be surprised if he didn't look the same

 

[corpcow]

Please go back and read the first 60 posts.The entire topic is about risk and consistency. We have already discussed, ad naseum, that the aggregate is not the issue. If the man scored 5000 points and you want to call him elite, that is fine but the point for this discussion is that 4800 of those points come in 25% of the games, leaving 9 out of the 16 weeks with a situation where any of a number of players picked in rounds 10+ would outscore him. So, yes, you roll on the floor and cry a happy tear when he rips off 1200 points in a game..4 times a year. The other 9 games, some guy name Toby gerhardt just clobbered your #6 overall pick.Until/unless fantasy leagues become/are aggregate points leagues, the true measure of effectiveness is what you get in week 1. RESET. what you get in week 2. RESET, etc, etc. The 5000 points don't help you a bit when it gets reset each week and my 10th rounder is kicking your 1st rounders teeth in 60+% of the time. In H2H leagues, that directly translates into losses for you more than wins...not what you are working towards.

Actually, I've been participating in this thread from the start. I readily admitted he may be "inconsistent", so that argument is moot. The OP explicitly asked whether CJ2K's "bust factor" or DMC's "injury factor" was a bigger risk. That's the risk we're talking about.I'm going to assume saying that 90% of his points come in 25% of the games is just hyperbole, but I think you're missing the point with this "reset" rhetoric. First, I'm not playing CJ vs. your one offensive player, so the fact that he scores less than 8 points in a week doesn't necessarily mean I lost. But there are definitely times where his weekly score singlehandedly won me a game. And if he's among the elite scorers in aggregate, that means - as I said before - that he has one of those great games for every bad game. Btw, in 2009, CJ was absurdly consistent - 11 straight weeks with at least 128 total yards. I can't even begin to tell you how many games he won for me that year. There were various circumstances since then that have hurt his production - in 2010 teams were keying on him so hard and there was no semblance of a passing game. Last year, he was out of shape, held out, and no offseason.The point is, CJ has DONE what every THINKS is DMC's upside. CJ already had one of the best seasons in fantasy/NFL history. So it's kind of silly to say that DMC has more "upside". Whether or not you're a fan of CJ, the numbers just don't lie. Personally, I think he's on a mission to prove he's not washed up and I was impressed with what I saw from him on the field so far. (I'm not talking about numbers, I'm talking about the way he's running). And I think Locker will help him - we all saw what a mobile QB does for RBs with VY and CJ and Vick & McCoy, etc. It opens up lanes. And Locker has shown me enough to think that they'll at least have to respect the pass, and respect his ability to run. None of this is to say that I don't think Darren McFadden is also an immensely talented RB, and I think either are solid RB1s. (Though, I wouldn't blame you for taking Demarco Murray above both either). But what you're saying is just factually incorrect and a mischaracterization of what we've been discussing.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

There really is no wrong answer here.CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

In DMAC's last 20 games hes had 2,432 total yards, 66 rec and 15 total TD's. That comes out to about 1,950 total yards, 52 receptions and 12 total TD's for 16 games. With Bush now gone, you would think his TD numbers should go up (similar to Ray Rice last year). Theyre also using him more as a receiver having him line up out wide. I think the 16 game average above would represent his ceiling with an uptick in TD's and receptions. Of course, the 16 games is most critical but i think if he does end up playing 16 games (big if i know) then 2,000 yards, 60 catches and 15 TD's is what we're looking at.

Did you see weeks 12-13 last season? over that time period, Chris Johnson averaged 23 carries, 171.5 rushing yards and 1 TD per game. I know it is a small sample set, but I think that definitely proves he has the potnetial to reach 2000 yards again, possibly even 2500. In addition, both of those games were played against solid, NFL caliber defenses employing complex schemes and blitz packages. Now, I like McFadden too, but go back to weeks 12-13 of 2010 and look at McFadden's numbers. He averaged 9 carries, 8 yards and 0 TDs per game. Extrapolate those stats over a full 16 game season and you'd be hard pressed to project him for anything more than 200 total yards and 0 total TDs. I think it's pretty obvious that Chris Johnson's upside and projected preformance is far superior to that of McFadden's.

 

[One]

There really is no wrong answer here.CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

In DMAC's last 20 games hes had 2,432 total yards, 66 rec and 15 total TD's. That comes out to about 1,950 total yards, 52 receptions and 12 total TD's for 16 games. With Bush now gone, you would think his TD numbers should go up (similar to Ray Rice last year). Theyre also using him more as a receiver having him line up out wide. I think the 16 game average above would represent his ceiling with an uptick in TD's and receptions. Of course, the 16 games is most critical but i think if he does end up playing 16 games (big if i know) then 2,000 yards, 60 catches and 15 TD's is what we're looking at.

Did you see weeks 12-13 last season? over that time period, Chris Johnson averaged 23 carries, 171.5 rushing yards and 1 TD per game. I know it is a small sample set, but I think that definitely proves he has the potnetial to reach 2000 yards again, possibly even 2500. In addition, both of those games were played against solid, NFL caliber defenses employing complex schemes and blitz packages. Now, I like McFadden too, but go back to weeks 12-13 of 2010 and look at McFadden's numbers. He averaged 9 carries, 8 yards and 0 TDs per game. Extrapolate those stats over a full 16 game season and you'd be hard pressed to project him for anything more than 200 total yards and 0 total TDs. I think it's pretty obvious that Chris Johnson's upside and projected preformance is far superior to that of McFadden's.

 

[ponchsox]

There really is no wrong answer here.

CJ is historically safer in an injury sense, but with a lower ceiling (2k isn't happening again). McFadden carries the injury risk, but the stars are aligned for some rediculous upside, if healthy.

It's all about how you want to build your team this season. For some reason I've got four leagues with either the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks this year, so in two I've taken risks with McFadden early, then drafted safer in later picks. On others I've taken CJ and gone risk/upside later.

Ok, so he doesnt make 2k again, whats his new ceiling.Better, whats DMacs ceiling.

Please spare me extrapolated 16 game seasons based on a 7 game season.

In DMAC's last 20 games hes had 2,432 total yards, 66 rec and 15 total TD's. That comes out to about 1,950 total yards, 52 receptions and 12 total TD's for 16 games. With Bush now gone, you would think his TD numbers should go up (similar to Ray Rice last year). Theyre also using him more as a receiver having him line up out wide. I think the 16 game average above would represent his ceiling with an uptick in TD's and receptions. Of course, the 16 games is most critical but i think if he does end up playing 16 games (big if i know) then 2,000 yards, 60 catches and 15 TD's is what we're looking at.

Did you see weeks 12-13 last season? over that time period, Chris Johnson averaged 23 carries, 171.5 rushing yards and 1 TD per game. I know it is a small sample set, but I think that definitely proves he has the potnetial to reach 2000 yards again, possibly even 2500. In addition, both of those games were played against solid, NFL caliber defenses employing complex schemes and blitz packages. Now, I like McFadden too, but go back to weeks 12-13 of 2010 and look at McFadden's numbers. He averaged 9 carries, 8 yards and 0 TDs per game. Extrapolate those stats over a full 16 game season and you'd be hard pressed to project him for anything more than 200 total yards and 0 total TDs. I think it's pretty obvious that Chris Johnson's upside and projected preformance is far superior to that of McFadden's.

I just don't buy this. Far superior?

 

[Chaka]

I am not sure where these consistency numbers are coming from but I suspect it is another reason to remember that scoring systems are so variable from league to league that you can't take any fantasy scoring numbers as true across the board.

For example in my league CJ finished as the #9, #1, #6 & #20 RB and put up games of 10+ points (which is the benchmark for above average performance in my league) 8, 9, 8 & 4 times in those seasons. 8 games of 10+ points is pretty much the average for the top 10 backs in a given season. Sure there were a few RBs with 10-11 games of 10+ points but there were also some with 6-7. For my league at least CJ is plenty consistent in week to week scoring. And in no season did Nate Washington outscore CJ more times than CJ outscored Nate.

Point being that you really have to check the numbers for your particular league to determine if the lack of consistency argument holds true. My guess is that the argument will fall short as often as it holds up.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Soooo....who watched the game tonight, because CJ's 13 carries for 27 yards looks terrible no matter how you spin it.

And this was during a game that Locker had a 100+ QBR

 

[Sienna2012]

Soooo....who watched the game tonight, because CJ's 13 carries for 27 yards looks terrible no matter how you spin it.And this was during a game that Locker had a 100+ QBR

Yip, I watched it. Terrible game, still looks like he did last year.

 

[Sweet Love]

Someone may need to start the CJ versus Shonn Greene thread soon.

 

[Sienna2012]

Someone may need to start the CJ versus Shonn Greene thread soon.

 

[VaTerp]

I am not sure where these consistency numbers are coming from but I suspect it is another reason to remember that scoring systems are so variable from league to league that you can't take any fantasy scoring numbers as true across the board.

For example in my league CJ finished as the #9, #1, #6 & #20 RB and put up games of 10+ points (which is the benchmark for above average performance in my league) 8, 9, 8 & 4 times in those seasons. 8 games of 10+ points is pretty much the average for the top 10 backs in a given season. Sure there were a few RBs with 10-11 games of 10+ points but there were also some with 6-7. For my league at least CJ is plenty consistent in week to week scoring. And in no season did Nate Washington outscore CJ more times than CJ outscored Nate.

Point being that you really have to check the numbers for your particular league to determine if the lack of consistency argument holds true. My guess is that the argument will fall short as often as it holds up.

People are down on CJ because of last year. He sucked. But I'm not buying the inconsistent argument for several reasons but most importantly because in my league scoring it doesnt apply.

And his pre-season stats don't concern me. It's pre-season. I use the eyeball test to see how he was running. IMO the burst is there when he had running lanes. He looks better to me than he did last year.

He is a RB that can entirely change his stat line on one play. I can understand the concern that those big plays are on the decline but I still think he has a bounce back year in him. He's gonna get the carries, he's still explosive, and he's displayed ability to find the endzone.

Something to consider for those looking at pre-season stat lines:

2009

25 carries 77 yards 3.1 ypc 0 TDs- Finished RB1, NFL record for yards from scrimmage

2010

19 carries 39 yards 2.1 ypc 2 TDs- Finished RB5

2012

28 carries 81 yards 2.9 upc 2 TDs- ??????

 

[Bobble Fett]

I think they're both great and I'd take either.

However, Palmer cant throw downfield very well and has no scrambling ability. Hell get more touches than CJ?K and IS The Raiders offense. DMC is even my 1st round keeper in my own 10 team standard league. I'm taking that risk willingly. If he has the Fred Taylor effect and stays healthy this year, he could put up monstrous numbers. Highest ceiling relative to ADP in FFB.

 

[degenerate]

ive had this opinion before johnson's game last night, but dmac is my 4th ranked rb. ive never owned him and i'm kind of scared to say that he has won me over this preseason. the stars may be aligning for a #1 overall rb season

 

[MarcO]

ive had this opinion before johnson's game last night, but dmac is my 4th ranked rb. ive never owned him and i'm kind of scared to say that he has won me over this preseason. the stars may be aligning for a #1 overall rb season

no one doubts he has the talent. However this thread is about the chances of him making it through the season healthy versus CJs chances of sucking.

 

[odouls]

I've had DMC twice (including last year). I think the argument should be is DMC and his backup going to be better than CJ2K and a 5th or 6th round pick? If you run the numbers on the person who starts for the Raiders (DMC or his backup) what are you buying. DMC is more of a sure thing to get hurt and if you draft him you have to make sure you lock up his backup. What do you guys think will lock up his backup? Maybe a 5th or 6th round pick or so? Just a few things I'm taking into consideration this year. I'm not a fantasy expert by any means and would like to see what you guys think.

Thanks

 

[hines]

as far as per play production everything I have seen over the past 12 months tells me McFadden should outproduce CJ by far per play. I don't think that's a controversial statement, 5.4 YPC vs 4.0 and 8.1 yards per catch vs 7.3. McFadden will be used as much as any back in the league when healthy according to the Raiders comments, plus with Bush gone he will score more TD's. he was pushing for #1 overall last year without short yardage TD's now he will get them. so literally the only reason to take CJ would be you think McFadden will miss probably 5-6 more games than Johnson will. which is impossible for anyone to predict and extremely unlikely to happen. McFadden has no structural or lingering problems and is completely healthy, so is CJ. both have a reasonable chance of getting injured this year. If it's up to me I take the top 3 overall PPG player over the guy who finished RB19 in PPG last year every single time

 

[Pots]

Here's my thoughts.

McFadden has a much higher ceiling that CJ that should not be ignored. I would be surprised if CJ finished as a top 3 RB and I would not be surprised if McFadden finished top 3.

Being injured is easier to substitute than plain sucking. If McFadden gets injured, you will sub someone else who will hopefully do a mediocre or better job. If CJ starts sucking, you don't know which games you should start him and which you shouldn't ending up with weeks of low point totals while your bench does better, followed by weeks of sitting him while CJ has decent weeks.

Do not underestimate PPG and WDIS analysis.

 

[JMJ]

Must say, this is one of the better threads I've read on the SP in a long time. Lots of solid analysis and thoughts from folks on both sides of the fence.

I have the 6th pick in a 12-team non-PPR and I totally expect to be faced with deciding between DMac and CJ. While I respect CJ (guy was a monster for years and I view last year as his absolute FLOOR for this year), I think DMac is just the better of the two RBs at this point in their careers. It really boils down to this for me:

Even if DMac plays 12 games instead of 16 ... and CJ does play 16 ... I think DMac's 12 + my replacement RB's 4 will equal more points than CJ's 16 games.

If DMac gets hurt in week 4 and it is DMac's 4 weeks + my replacement's 12 weeks ... then I'll probably wish I drafted CJ. I'm willing to roll the dice on this as none of DMac's injuries were "serious injuries" such as torn knee ligaments, achilles, etc. While I think he is a threat to not play a full 16 games, I don't think he is a threat to play less than 10 games.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm not sure that his injury last year was not serious. I think it may be a real problem.

 

[DocHolliday]

I'm not sure that his injury last year was not serious. I think it may be a real problem.

You see something that the rest of us do not? DMC looks to be running fine.

 

[Sienna2012]

I've had DMC twice (including last year). I think the argument should be is DMC and his backup going to be better than CJ2K and a 5th or 6th round pick? If you run the numbers on the person who starts for the Raiders (DMC or his backup) what are you buying. DMC is more of a sure thing to get hurt and if you draft him you have to make sure you lock up his backup. What do you guys think will lock up his backup? Maybe a 5th or 6th round pick or so? Just a few things I'm taking into consideration this year. I'm not a fantasy expert by any means and would like to see what you guys think.Thanks

If Bush was still in Oakland maybe, but in my league his backup(s) went undrafted. If you draft well, you do not need to waste a pick on his handcuff. I do notthink all handcuffs are created equal anyway. If DMC gets hurt, I will just stick him on IR and plug in my bench player and socur waivers for other rbs not automatically default to using his backup. Unless that backup impresses me.

 

[Shutout]

an 8 point game...I'm SO shocked.

 

[Pots]

an 8 point game...I'm SO shocked.

Only if your league awards a point for catching the ball.

 

[Raider Nation]

Neither will bust, but DMC is a bigger risk/reward play because of injury history.CJ bounces back this year and is a very solid pick in the middle to late first round.

 

[AcerFC]

Neither will bust, but DMC is a bigger risk/reward play because of injury history.CJ bounces back this year and is a very solid pick in the middle to late first round.

You would be happy with CJ in the late first at this point

 

[Raider Nation]

Neither will bust, but DMC is a bigger risk/reward play because of injury history.CJ bounces back this year and is a very solid pick in the middle to late first round.

You would be happy with CJ in the late first at this point

LOL

 

[Banger]

funny looking back at this thread....both are busts....CJ is 16th and DMac is 20th in my league despite both being healthy all year.

 

[Kenny Powers]

funny looking back at this thread....both are busts....CJ is 16th and DMac is 20th in my league despite both being healthy all year.

It is kind of ironic. Im glad I wasnt in the position to draft either, but at least CJ has had a couple big games like his typical self. DMC, not so much.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

chris johnson is a bust until you play another team that has him and he goes off for 200 and 2 TD.

 

[ImTheScientist]

funny looking back at this thread....both are busts....CJ is 16th and DMac is 20th in my league despite both being healthy all year.

It is kind of ironic. Im glad I wasnt in the position to draft either, but at least CJ has had a couple big games like his typical self. DMC, not so much.

DMC has been solid in PPR. Im in a 14 team auction and the highest scoring team in the league w/ him on my team. I think the patient DMAC owner will be rewarded come seasons end.

 

[Banger]

DMac injured like clockwork. The big difference this year is that DMac didn't reward you with high PPG stats prior to his injury. As of today CJ is 11th in my league and DMac is 21st and likely to miss some time.

Ironically, though this thread kind of went along with both sides of the arguments....CJ has busted to some extent with low point, inconsistent games but also some huge week winning type games and DMac has gotten hurt again.

 

[Kenny Powers]

chris johnson is a bust until you play another team that has him and he goes off for 200 and 2 TD.

Played him this week, figures. Good thing I have Doug Martin

 

[Shutout]

Chris Johnson - He has had multiple games in the last two years with near or under 2 yards per carry. That does not deserve a pick in the first round. vs Broncos in 2010 - 16 carries, 34 yards vs Texans in 2010 - 7 carries, 5 yardsvs Broncos in 2011 - 13 carries, 21 yardsvs Falcons in 2011 - 12 carries, 13 yardsvs Saints in 2011 - 11 carries, 23 yardsHis ability to be a complete bust will lose you a few games this season.To be honest, I put him in the same category as Reggie Bush. Reggie actually had more fantasy points over the second half of the season last year and can be had a few rounds after Chris Johnson.

There is a NFL RB who over a two year period had games of:15 for 3310 for 2014 for 2820 for 3314 for 28 again19 for 41Back to that in second. Personally I really like both Chris Johnson and McFadden this year and don't think you go wrong with either one. But IMO the negatives on Johnson are being overstated. Poster above points at Johnson's games with a bad ypc. Ok but it's ironic that he and McFadden share the exact same 4.8 career ypc. Johnson has just maintained that over twice as many carries. And career TDs favor Johnson to a tune of 42 in 63 career games (0.67 pg) to McFadden's 20 in 45 games (.44 pg). All the talk of inconsistency is really overstated as well. People act as if they will be rolling Johnson out by himself in weekly matchups. Like with anybody on your roster, there will be other players on your team that will more than compensate for down weeks from an individual player. If you are going to say Johnson will lose you weeks with his poor performances then you have to say he will when weeks for you with his good ones. There is a point to be made for consistency but much is often made too much of it and particularly in this case.The RB I referenced above is named Barry Sanders. Do you think he deserved a pick in the first round of drafts? Would you put him in the same category as Reggie Bush?

It is SO funny that you bring that up as an example. The Best year I ever had in FF was in 1998 when I had the 2nd overall pick and the guy picking #1 took Barry Sanders. He was just SO all over how he had just come off a 2k season DESPITE starting the first two games with a total of 53 yards (your first two examples in your post). I took Terrell Davis, the guy that had missed a game the year before and there were questions about his durability. Can definitely relate that to this topic.

Sorry to hear your best FF season was a decade and a half ago. I see where you're trying to go with that. But there are some significant differences in trying to make that comparison as well.But my point was simply this. You can make a very good argument as to why you prefer McFadden over Johnson. That's fine. But Johnson's inconsistency is being overstated AND my real point is that the suggestion above that he is not worthy of a first round pick and is in the same category as Reggie Bush is a ridiculous statement going into the 2012 season.

i didnt say i havent had many great seasons. but that year i went undefeated andwon every game by at least 20.so yeah it was a great year.and just for the record, cj and bush are almost identical in points in ppr so draft them where we want, they pretty much ARE worth the same so the guy that drafted bush likely got much better value

 

[donkshow]

CJ over DMC I think. McFadden cannot shake the injury plague and CJ seems to be "back".

 

[msommer]

DMac injured like clockwork. The big difference this year is that DMac didn't reward you with high PPG stats prior to his injury. As of today CJ is 11th in my league and DMac is 21st and likely to miss some time.Ironically, though this thread kind of went along with both sides of the arguments....CJ has busted to some extent with low point, inconsistent games but also some huge week winning type games and DMac has gotten hurt again.

Bumping this with McFadden coming back. The above is a very good postAt present McFadden is RB28 in my league (ppr), LBJ RB9. Mathews RB25 (mentioned since he was the 'safe' pick in the middle of the first)

 

[Chaka]

Johnson was the better call for this year but I would still consider starting McFadden over Johnson the rest of the way. Tennessee's offensive line has been devastated and Johnson's production has decreased in every game since Locker took over.