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Climate Change aka Global Warming (1 Viewer)

joffer said:
Or realize that land ice is a lot more important than sea ice
I do understand the difference but the tales of ice sheets sliding into the ocean anytime soon is exaggerated. Scientists who say the West Antarctic ice sheet is on an inevitable path even believe it will be centuries from now.

In the second paper, Ian Joughlin and colleagues from the University of Washington used models to investigate whether the Thwaites and Haynes glaciers, which together are a major contributor to sea level change, were indeed on their way to collapsing. “The simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun,” they said. How long that would take varies with different simulations – from 200 to 900 years.
http://m.ibtimes.com/antarctic-glacial-melt-fastest-melting-region-losing-mount-everest-worth-ice-every-1736059
 
I do understand the difference but the tales of ice sheets sliding into the ocean anytime soon is exaggerated. Scientists who say the West Antarctic ice sheet is on an inevitable path even believe it will be centuries from now.
Wanna bet?

 
Drought forces some Cape Town residents into midnight queues for water

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-drought-lines/drought-forces-some-cape-town-residents-into-midnight-queues-for-water-idUSKBN1FQ26M

Hundreds of Cape Town residents are being forced to line up overnight to stock up on water as South Africa’s second largest economic hub and tourism attraction struggles with a severe drought that could see taps turned off in May.

On Monday, city officials pushed back “Day Zero” – the day taps could run dry – by a month to May 11 from April 16, as farmers in the water intensive agriculture sector cut back consumption amid tight restrictions.

Last week, dam levels in Western Cape province fell to 24.5 percent from 25.3 percent the previous week and from nearly 38 percent a year ago.

Cape Town’s drought is part of a wider climate change pattern seen around the country including Eastern Cape province, where several towns also face water shortages.

Authorities say each person will be allocated 25 litres of water per day, and have been urging residents of the city to “save water or line up for water” in the run-up to Day Zero.

“I hope Day Zero never comes, but I can see with people wanting to come here and the desperation for water, we are soon going to realize that water is more valuable than oil,”

 
I have some friends that recently bought a house near Cape Town and will be staying with them for a few days at the end of the week. It'll be interesting to see how people are reacting to the drought. It may be a glimpse into the future for a lot of other places. Their traditional heavy rain months(June/July) are still several months out. My friends have a borehole on their property and in between the time they purchased the house and when they actually moved in they already had neighbors stealing water from their borehole.

It's kind of funny when people say they NEED to drive a car, or they shutter at the thought of turning their cell phone off for an hour at a comedy show. When you don't have access to fresh drinkable water it kind of snaps into focus the difference between WANTS and NEEDS. In a world where folks are willing to pay $1200/year on a fancy phone which, let's be honest, is a glorified toy for adults just imagine how much a month of fresh water is actually worth. It's one thing when you are in a rural setting and need water, it's a whole different thing when you have a world-class city where everyone needs water. 

 
I think with global warming we are already seeing the effect in that the extremes are hitting.  Droughts followed by floods.  -5C days followed by 20C days 2 days later.  

Certain pockets are simply more sensitive to the swings like this.  

De-Sal seems like it will be required in huge parts of the world.  The aquifers in Texas are draining so much so fast that the ground level is dropping! 

It's a dirty process, but with higher global temperatures more water will be tied up in the atmosphere.  You have to get that water back somehow.

 
What are the options there?  Desal?  
They have some of these coming online in a month or so.  So they're getting there, just not as quick as the populace needs.

Certain pockets are simply more sensitive to the swings like this.  
We, as humans, have a recency bias.  Let's not forget the historical record shows California having huge, major droughts much larger than the ones we've seen in our lifetimes.  The Mayan civilization, in an area generally considered to be rain forest, was decimated by drought.  

These are relatively normal swings in the earths climate.  They are the definition of climate change.  They may or may not be affected by human influenced climate change - proving that is impossible.

 
They have some of these coming online in a month or so.  So they're getting there, just not as quick as the populace needs.

We, as humans, have a recency bias.  Let's not forget the historical record shows California having huge, major droughts much larger than the ones we've seen in our lifetimes.  The Mayan civilization, in an area generally considered to be rain forest, was decimated by drought.  

These are relatively normal swings in the earths climate.  They are the definition of climate change.  They may or may not be affected by human influenced climate change - proving that is impossible.
You were doing so fine until that last bit of hyperbole.

 
https://news.vice.com/en_ca/article/j5bjvx/china-soldiers-trees-planting-beijing-pollution

60,000 Chinese troops have been deployed to plants trees in an extended area around Beijing roughly the size of Utah.

The initiative is part of a wider plan to increase China’s overall level of forestation from 21.7 percent to 23 percent by the end of the decade, and to 26 percent by 2035.

“The Paris Agreement is a hard-won achievement,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said at Davos last year. “All signatories should stick to it instead of walking away from it, as this is a responsibility we must assume for future generations.”

 
https://news.vice.com/en_ca/article/j5bjvx/china-soldiers-trees-planting-beijing-pollution

60,000 Chinese troops have been deployed to plants trees in an extended area around Beijing roughly the size of Utah.

The initiative is part of a wider plan to increase China’s overall level of forestation from 21.7 percent to 23 percent by the end of the decade, and to 26 percent by 2035.

“The Paris Agreement is a hard-won achievement,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said at Davos last year. “All signatories should stick to it instead of walking away from it, as this is a responsibility we must assume for future generations.”
I think they'll have to do more than plant some trees. If you're in Chongqing, you can stare at the sun, midday, and it looks like an 8th grader's chalk drawing.  And not a bird to be found for miles.

 
I have some friends that recently bought a house near Cape Town and will be staying with them for a few days at the end of the week. It'll be interesting to see how people are reacting to the drought. It may be a glimpse into the future for a lot of other places. Their traditional heavy rain months(June/July) are still several months out. My friends have a borehole on their property and in between the time they purchased the house and when they actually moved in they already had neighbors stealing water from their borehole.

It's kind of funny when people say they NEED to drive a car, or they shutter at the thought of turning their cell phone off for an hour at a comedy show. When you don't have access to fresh drinkable water it kind of snaps into focus the difference between WANTS and NEEDS. In a world where folks are willing to pay $1200/year on a fancy phone which, let's be honest, is a glorified toy for adults just imagine how much a month of fresh water is actually worth. It's one thing when you are in a rural setting and need water, it's a whole different thing when you have a world-class city where everyone needs water. 
There is no reason why any place around water can’t have fresh water, Cape Town is surrounded by salt water.  One navy carrier can make over 1,000,000 gallons of fresh water per day distilled from ocean water without having to do anything special while they are launching jets and fighting wars.  And it’s on rusty equipment that’s 40 years old on technology even older all done by kids who just graduated high school.  And the water is cleaner than bottled water out of a grocery store.  It’s actually extreme easy to do.  Just boil it, problem solved.  They could get blue prints printed several decades ago before computers were readily used and build units.  

The problem with places like Cape Town isn’t a water shortage, but rather their inability to anticipate and problem solve in a civilized society. 

 
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There is no reason why any place around water can’t have fresh water, Cape Town is surrounded by salt water.  One navy carrier can make over 1,000,000 gallons of fresh water per day distilled from ocean water without having to do anything special while they are launching jets and fighting wars.  And it’s on rusty equipment that’s 40 years old on technology even older all done by kids who just graduated high school.  And the water is cleaner than bottled water out of a grocery store.  It’s actually extreme easy to do.  Just boil it, problem solved.  They could get blue prints printed several decades ago before computers were readily used and build units.  

The problem with places like Cape Town isn’t a water shortage, but rather their inability to anticipate and problem solve in a civilized society. 
Boom.  Problem solved.

 
There is no reason why any place around water can’t have fresh water, Cape Town is surrounded by salt water.  One navy carrier can make over 1,000,000 gallons of fresh water per day distilled from ocean water without having to do anything special while they are launching jets and fighting wars.  And it’s on rusty equipment that’s 40 years old on technology even older all done by kids who just graduated high school.  And the water is cleaner than bottled water out of a grocery store.  It’s actually extreme easy to do.  Just boil it, problem solved.  They could get blue prints printed several decades ago before computers were readily used and build units.  

The problem with places like Cape Town isn’t a water shortage, but rather their inability to anticipate and problem solve in a civilized society. 
Not every place has the same attitude to cost as the US Navy.

That said, desalination is clearly a solution for coastal cities

 
Not every place has the same attitude to cost as the US Navy.

That said, desalination is clearly a solution for coastal cities
Desalination plants can require quite a bit of energy over a long period of time.  On a cost basis they have become increasing cheap over the past decade.  But if there are high energy costs or energy deficiencies this may be a reason they are behind in desalination. 

Maybe they have a water crisis because they actually have an energy crisis? I have no idea, but this would make sense. 

 
Desalination plants can require quite a bit of energy over a long period of time.  On a cost basis they have become increasing cheap over the past decade.  But if there are high energy costs or energy deficiencies this may be a reason they are behind in desalination. 

Maybe they have a water crisis because they actually have an energy crisis? I have no idea, but this would make sense. 
South Africa has a governance and financial crisis in addition to a drought - as well as quite likely too lenient an attitude towards water usage

 
Maybe they have a water crisis because they actually have an energy crisis? I have no idea, but this would make sense. 
I think they are so closely related it's hard to separate the two, at least until it takes much less power for desalination. It's one thing to create fresh water for a ship full of people, another thing to create enough fresh water for the population of the Western Cape. 

Desalination opens its own can of worms. Over 2/3rds of the desalination plants in the world are in the Middle East. Most people that go to Cape Town do so to enjoy the outdoors in one form or another whether is seeing sharks, or whales, or sea fishing, or safari, or visiting wineries, Table Mountain, etc. The people that visit the Middle East aren't driven to enjoy the outdoors nearly as much. Nearly 80% of South Africa power comes from coal which already impacts the country negatively. Between the excess coal needed for the desalination and the salty brine that is created from the process it would have a fairly negative impact both in terms of air quality and water quality both of which have the potential to have a huge negative impact on ecosystems, wildlife and tourism.

Another big stumbling block is the cost. Australia invested over 10 BILLION dollars in desalination plants during a drought crisis but then when you get a normal rainfall year it makes more financial sense to moth ball almost half of them. Keep in mind, $10 BILLION seems like change in the couch cushions when compared to GDP of the U.S. but for countries like Australia and South Africa that is a lot more money to them. When it comes to the equivalent of a backup generator for your house that's a tough pill to swallow. But maybe they would then raise the price of the water to more accurately reflect its value to pay for the necessity when they need it.

Honestly, I think that's the direction this is all moving. Higher prices for water and transporting water long distances more efficiently. 

 
South Africa has a governance and financial crisis in addition to a drought - as well as quite likely too lenient an attitude towards water usage
I agree on the first part. It's kind of become an exercise in political finger pointing at the moment. Much of the white population thinks that water is used less efficiently than it should be in the townships, where there is generally less regulation and maintenance done. The reality is agriculture has been using up to 40% of the water(at a subsidized rate no less) as recently as 2015. But winery tourism is one of the biggest money makers in the region so they desperately need the foreign money. Most of the political parties seem more interested in painting their opposition as the "bad guy" than actually coming up with a plan of action to address the long term problem.

Speaking of the long term problem, I don't think there is a too lenient attitude toward water usage by the locals. If anything during the last drought conditions there were many measures put in place to cut water waste. Because the water saving measures were put into action the water consumption actually leveled off during a period of fast population growth within the region. Now they have the problem of more people and they have already used their bag of tricks to use the finite water more efficiently so the only way to cut water now is to flush much less often, shower less, etc. When I left the Cape Town airport you couldn't even wash your hands.... just had to use hand sanitizer. That's fine.... when you have the luxury of hand sanitizer. There is a big problem with inequality throughout the country and there are people that worry about not being able to wash their car, and there are people worried about staying hydrated and clean enough to avoid disease. The economy of the Western Cape revolves around tourism but tourists want swimming pools and don't use water as frugally as the locals to be sure. 

The governance issue doesn't look like it will be solved anytime soon, although I will say everyone I spoke to(both black and white) were excited that Zuma stepped down. A great deal of optimism from everyone in the country that I spoke to. I'll also say that the residents in the Western Cape(and all of South Africa really) seem to have a unique resiliency. There is less of a sense of panic than there would be in the U.S. imo. There's more of a feeling that they have been through a lot, and will go through a lot, and this too will pass. It's just a matter of how much pain will be endured until the rain comes.

It will be interesting to see how Cape Town manages this water crisis because it won't be the last major city that will struggle with this problem. It may seem like it's on a far flung continent so who cares, but I would guess the water problems experienced in southern California were a mere glimpse of what is to come. Maybe it will spawn more investment in new desalination technologies. Maybe it will force municipalities to develop "grey water" grids for specific uses. Or some combination of these and more.

 
Yeah, it's not a matter of if, but how screwed we are and when.

There are some things to wish for. Reduction in coal is happening fast, China is getting on board.  We will survive this president and deal with this ourselves.  Somehow.

We really need the population of the world to top out soon.

 

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