Chaser1439
Footballguy
Does Colston have a chance to be a top 5 WR if he stays healthy?
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Colston? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaser1439
- Start date
redman
Footballguy
Considering that he was at or near the top during his rookie season before he got injured, the answer is undeniably "yes". What impressed me about him is that even when defenses knew he was getting the ball, he still made plays. He also was the reason (with a nice assist to Brees of course) why Copper and Henderson looked so good last year IMHO.
Chaser1439
Footballguy
yeah I would have to agree with you on that. The Saints have a ton of options on offense which I believe works to Colston advantage. If he gets any kind of space he will be pulling down 8-12 receptions a game, and with his size good luck bringing him down.
coolnerd
Footballguy
8 catches a game would be 128 for a season. The number of times that has been done can be counted pretty quickly, so temper your expectation with some reality.For me, Colston is a show me again player. I like his talent and skills, but want to see him be the number WR1 on his team and stay healthy before annoiting him as a top 5 WR.
Chaser1439
Footballguy
If Clayton had Drew Brees throwing him the ball it would have been a different story.
coolnerd
Footballguy
The criticisms of Clayton have been work ethic, and inability to stay healthy. Drew Brees could not have helped Clayton with that.
Sidewinder
Footballguy
No arguments on that. But kind of reading between the lines on the "want to see him be the number WR1" part, I'm assuming you mean without Horn on the field. Here are the stat lines for the games Colston played where Horn did not suit up:11-123-1 (at Tampa)10-169-0 (at Pitt)5-48-0 (at Dallas, first game back after injury)7-84-0 (vs Wash)4-37-1 (at NYG)5-55-0 (playoffs vs Phil)5-63-1 (playoffs at Chic)Total of 47 catches, 579 yards, and 3 TDs in 7 games.
guderian
Footballguy
I don't understand why people constantly compare Colston to Clayton. They have very little in common besides a solid rookie year. Why isn't Colston ever compared to Anquan Boldin? Or Antonio Gates (Drew Brees' last favorite target)? Why do we have to force fit Colston into a comparison to any specific player? Just because a guy has a good rookie year doesn't mean he's going to follow in the footsteps of the last guy that had a solid rookie year. This reminds me of the "Penn State RBs suck" type of analysis. 1. Clayton had a pretty good sized rookie contract. Colston gets paid $360k this year and $445k next year--and can't renegotiate until after 2008. I think that Colston's first big expenditure after signing with the Saints was an XBOX. 2. Colston's work ethic has been praised. He's apparently a humble, well grounded guy who didn't let success go to his head. We won't know about his on-going work ethic until next year, but there is absolutely no evidence that he doesn't have a solid work ethic. Downgrading him because of Clayton's work ethic makes no sense. 3. "Injury proneness" is over-rated. Football is a dangerous sport--players get injured. Colston got dinged up in a couple games and came right back--showing his toughness. Downgrading him because Clayton has had injury issues makes no sense. 4. Drew Brees will play a huge factor in Colston's future success. Consistent QB play in a high scoring offense is a pretty good indicator for WR success. Clayton didn't have that. Clayton has had a revolving door at QB in a declining offense. 5. Colston did phenomenally well when Joe Horn was out last year putting up a string of 100+ yard games when people knew the ball was going to go to him. Of course it's a small sample size, but there is absolutely no evidence that Colston can't succeed as the #1 WR when he did great as the #1 WR last year.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Why? Based on what? I know of nothing to suggest he anything like Clayton.
Then why bring up Clayton for Colston? How about Anquan Boldin?Seems to me that Colston impressed enough as a 7th round pick that they traded Stallworth, so obviously he had some talent, but more than likely the professionalism that he needed to pickup the playbook and practive well. Colston didn't get a 1st round pick's contract like Clayton did, so he has a lot more incentive ($$$) to continue to do well.The other great thing about Colston is that Brees, Bush and McAllister all just signed multi-year contracts. I think McAllister signed a huge new deal starting in 2005. Colston has the luxury of being in the same situation the next few years.That said, there are no guarantees in life, but with that running game, Brees, and last year's results, I think Colston looks good to me. Also, if he does get nicked again, you know whoever takes over for him (Henderson/Copper) produced as well.
Bolded for truth. I see Colston very much like Boldin - great rookie season but who knows if he'll be able to duplicate.
coolnerd
Footballguy
The point was not that Colston= Clayton in terms of style of play, personality, system, etc. It was that Clayton was annointed a top WR after an outstanding rookie year and has not duplicated those marks in total over the next two. It is a proceed with caution warning versus don't go near him. I own him in like 3 leagues, but I am not procedding as though he is a no doubt about number 1 fantasy WR.
BTW, the premise of this thread was should Colston be consider a top 5 WR if healthy? Seriously, who is ready to just insert Colston is their clear number 1 fantasy WR w/o reservation?
BTW, the premise of this thread was should Colston be consider a top 5 WR if healthy? Seriously, who is ready to just insert Colston is their clear number 1 fantasy WR w/o reservation?
perry147
Footballguy
I really got burned by Clayton after that first year and am now very pessimistic when choosing a player after only 1 year of production - I will take someone with a more proven record if available to me (I choose Driver).Clayton major problem is his work ethic (and general laziness) that did not come to light until after he had started to decline. I have not heard anything negative about Colston and his work ethic but is risk/award is much higher than that a more established player.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
I guess i just really like him but i traded for him this offseason to be my #1 on a few teamsOn those teams i have:COLSTEN BOLDIN and EVANSCOLSTEN BOLDIN and SANTANAI do have him rated as my #1 on both of those teams
bostonfred
Footballguy
Wide receiver is one of the hardest positions for the FF community to predict. Each year about half of the top receivers bust. Sometimes that bust is predictable, other times people look for patterns where there are none (Moulds every other year, or second year WRs will be like Moss/Clayton/Fitzgerald/Boldin/Terry Glenn/whoever they're compared to each year).
Here are some of the risks a wide receiver can have. This is not a comprehensive list and I would appreciate any suggested changes or additions.
Short history of production: Colston has one year of experience, during which he got off to a fast start, but missed two games and was held without a catch in two more.
Half season phenomenon: When a receiver has a half season that's great, and another half that's not as great, I tend to get nervous. Colston was much better in the first half than the post-injury second half.
Deep threat phenomenon: If a player gets a big percentage of his yards on a small percentage of his plays, they may not be there next year. Colston's big games were games like 11/123/1 and 6/163/2. If they were 3/123/1 and 4/163/2, I'd be concerned. Here, I think it's in his favor.
Change in surrounding receiving talent: The major change here is Joe Horn. Horn wasn't drawing the top corner, but he was playing a receiver position that Copper and Henderson may not adequately fill. It's possible that this will hurt the offense.
Change in quarterback: Brees is still there, but he's coming off a career year. I think most people expect him to regress to his mean, at least a little.
Change in offensive scheme or coaching: This has been fairly static.
Injury history: It's limited, but it's there. I don't hold this much against him, but it's something to watch.
Age: If anything, this is on his side. It's reasonable to expect improvement.
Experience: This, on the other hand, is going against him. Small changes to the offense may create bigger changes in his production if he doesn't understand how to adapt.
Motivation: By all accounts he appears motivated, but after a big rookie season this could be a concern.
Overall, the only ones that seem like a real concern are the half season of production and Brees coming back to earth. Motivation may be an issue but it doesn't seem like it yet.
Last year's numbers, which started out great, ended up at just 70/1038/8 when he basically missed four games. Based on all of the above, I think it's reasonable to project him to repeat or exceed those numbers over a 16 game season where he has improved, but his QB may have regressed. I'd probably project something closer to 80/1100/9.
Here are some of the risks a wide receiver can have. This is not a comprehensive list and I would appreciate any suggested changes or additions.
Short history of production: Colston has one year of experience, during which he got off to a fast start, but missed two games and was held without a catch in two more.
Half season phenomenon: When a receiver has a half season that's great, and another half that's not as great, I tend to get nervous. Colston was much better in the first half than the post-injury second half.
Deep threat phenomenon: If a player gets a big percentage of his yards on a small percentage of his plays, they may not be there next year. Colston's big games were games like 11/123/1 and 6/163/2. If they were 3/123/1 and 4/163/2, I'd be concerned. Here, I think it's in his favor.
Change in surrounding receiving talent: The major change here is Joe Horn. Horn wasn't drawing the top corner, but he was playing a receiver position that Copper and Henderson may not adequately fill. It's possible that this will hurt the offense.
Change in quarterback: Brees is still there, but he's coming off a career year. I think most people expect him to regress to his mean, at least a little.
Change in offensive scheme or coaching: This has been fairly static.
Injury history: It's limited, but it's there. I don't hold this much against him, but it's something to watch.
Age: If anything, this is on his side. It's reasonable to expect improvement.
Experience: This, on the other hand, is going against him. Small changes to the offense may create bigger changes in his production if he doesn't understand how to adapt.
Motivation: By all accounts he appears motivated, but after a big rookie season this could be a concern.
Overall, the only ones that seem like a real concern are the half season of production and Brees coming back to earth. Motivation may be an issue but it doesn't seem like it yet.
Last year's numbers, which started out great, ended up at just 70/1038/8 when he basically missed four games. Based on all of the above, I think it's reasonable to project him to repeat or exceed those numbers over a 16 game season where he has improved, but his QB may have regressed. I'd probably project something closer to 80/1100/9.
coolnerd
Footballguy
and he is not your clear number fantasy WR. You're calling him that out of a personal preference, not because a clear separation between him and the others listed. I would rank him as third on both of those teams and be very happy that I have 3wrs that I rank in the top 20, if not Top 15.I guess i just really like him but i traded for him this offseason to be my #1 on a few teamsOn those teams i have:COLSTEN BOLDIN and EVANSCOLSTEN BOLDIN and SANTANAI do have him rated as my #1 on both of those teams
guderian
Footballguy
Just to clarify, the two games where Colston was held without a catch were the Cincinnati game when he was injured on the first series and the Carolina game when the starters only played the first series.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Based on your observations, I think you can see the differences. As for taking an established player over a 1year guy, that just makes sense. Of course Colston will probably go higher than he should while guys like Driver and Jackson continue to bring value. I suspect it'll be more of the same this year.BTW-if Moss ends up in GB, Driver will fall somewhat and he'll be a steal.
Pipes
Footballguy
Saying he was held without a catch in 2 games is very misleading.Top 5 may be a stretch for Colston, especially in a redraft, but I don't see how he's not at least in the 10-15 range.
Restricted
Footballguy
Don't own him in dynatsy and would take him without hesitation as a #2 in redrafts but someone will jump on him much earlier.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I wasn't trying to mislead anyone. I don't know everything there is to know about Colston. I think it's valuable to know why he missed those games - he missed three due to injury (one mid-game), and one due to the fact they'd locked up their playoff seed.
I'm more interested in the conversation about WHY a receiver should do well or poorly next year. It's one of the hardest positions for drafters to figure out each year. It would be nice to have a tool we could agree on to figure out what positive and negatives influences there are on a player's numbers from year to year. I took a first pass; I would be more interested in hearing whether it's a good tool to use than someone questioning the information I filled it in with for Colston.
Apparently we don't do strategy talk here in the offseason anymore, though. I apologize for trying to start some.
I'm more interested in the conversation about WHY a receiver should do well or poorly next year. It's one of the hardest positions for drafters to figure out each year. It would be nice to have a tool we could agree on to figure out what positive and negatives influences there are on a player's numbers from year to year. I took a first pass; I would be more interested in hearing whether it's a good tool to use than someone questioning the information I filled it in with for Colston.
Apparently we don't do strategy talk here in the offseason anymore, though. I apologize for trying to start some.
Sidewinder
Footballguy
Just shot-gunning a few things here:
Having signed a legitimate receiving threat at TE (assuming Johnson can stay healthy) will open some things up on the outside for the WRs, but may actually cut into their numbers a bit.
Brees didn't even start throwing until June last year, and had his reps limited until well into TC. Having a full offseason of work together can't but help Colston.
To me, the wildcard will be how many TDs Colston gets. Excluding injury, I see no way he doesn't go for 75 catches and 1,200 yards. But how many TDs ? There are only going to be so many to go around, and if Deuce and Bush go crazy and combine for something in the mid-to-upper 20's, I could see Colston only having 5 or 6. But he could also catch 12 if the RBs are held in the high teens to 20 range.
I know no one has labeled Colston as injury-prone, but several posts do mention injury. Just to make clear, his injury was a freak thing where he got rolled up from behind as McAllister was being tackled on a run. And it was on the Saints 3rd play from scrimmage, so he essentially missed 3 games due to injury.
Having signed a legitimate receiving threat at TE (assuming Johnson can stay healthy) will open some things up on the outside for the WRs, but may actually cut into their numbers a bit.
Brees didn't even start throwing until June last year, and had his reps limited until well into TC. Having a full offseason of work together can't but help Colston.
To me, the wildcard will be how many TDs Colston gets. Excluding injury, I see no way he doesn't go for 75 catches and 1,200 yards. But how many TDs ? There are only going to be so many to go around, and if Deuce and Bush go crazy and combine for something in the mid-to-upper 20's, I could see Colston only having 5 or 6. But he could also catch 12 if the RBs are held in the high teens to 20 range.
I know no one has labeled Colston as injury-prone, but several posts do mention injury. Just to make clear, his injury was a freak thing where he got rolled up from behind as McAllister was being tackled on a run. And it was on the Saints 3rd play from scrimmage, so he essentially missed 3 games due to injury.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Don't apologize for that. Some of us still like to strategize.
Pipes
Footballguy
We are talking strategy. We're just correcting you regarding Colston's missing games. The freak HAS explains his 2nd half production more than anything and your initial post made it sound like he was just a non-factor in those games.I don't see what's not to like about Colston. Look at that offense he's in...it's young and very talented. The fact of the matter is with guys like Bush & Deuce in the lineup defenses can't gameplan to stop Colston. Plus with his size I think he's a huge red zone target for Brees who seems to look for the big guys there. I think 75 rec, 1200 yds and 10 tds are very realistic for him this year.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Colston did so well last year that predicting him to trump it is almost asking for trouble. However, with Horn gone and potentially Terrance Copper, he certainly should see a ton of opportunities. Copper is a low tendered RFA that other teams can basically sign without having to provide draft picks as compensation (provided the Saints don't match an offer sheet).
T Man
Footballguy
I expect a solid outing out of Colston in year 2, but not quite as good as his rookie year.
First: I expect teams to gameplan for him more this year. Teams will use the offseason to design packages to liimit his effectiveness.
Second: I don't expect Brees to have as great a year as last year. Will he be good, yes. But I don't think you cann expect it to be as great as it was. And if BRees is a little down, then so is Colston.
THird: I expect the Saints to get a threat at TE. A stronger TE will mean more throws to the TE.
Fourth: If Copper leaves, that leaves Henderson and COlston. Unless another solid WR is added to the mix, it means that much more attention will be placed on Colston.
Fifth: I expect that without Horn, there will be more plays with both Deuce and Reggie in the game -- and more targets to Reggie.
With that said, I expect Colston to be top 15. Can he be top 5? YES. But I am not projecting it at this point. He is only a second year WR in an offense that worked in its first year. I would like a bit more history (from both the Saints and Colston) before I project him top 5.
First: I expect teams to gameplan for him more this year. Teams will use the offseason to design packages to liimit his effectiveness.
Second: I don't expect Brees to have as great a year as last year. Will he be good, yes. But I don't think you cann expect it to be as great as it was. And if BRees is a little down, then so is Colston.
THird: I expect the Saints to get a threat at TE. A stronger TE will mean more throws to the TE.
Fourth: If Copper leaves, that leaves Henderson and COlston. Unless another solid WR is added to the mix, it means that much more attention will be placed on Colston.
Fifth: I expect that without Horn, there will be more plays with both Deuce and Reggie in the game -- and more targets to Reggie.
With that said, I expect Colston to be top 15. Can he be top 5? YES. But I am not projecting it at this point. He is only a second year WR in an offense that worked in its first year. I would like a bit more history (from both the Saints and Colston) before I project him top 5.
Restricted
Footballguy
They signed Eric Johnson from SF. Injury prone but a very solid TE when healthy.
T Man
Footballguy
I forgot they signed EJ. If he can stay on the field, I expect he'll steal targets from COlston.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
I think he could be a top 10 next season.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Ironic you chose Driver as he and Houshmandzadeh are the only 7th round WRs to finish in the top 36 in WR scoring during the last 5 years besides Colston. And both Driver and Housh have done it multiple times. I think Colston will have a similar impact.perry147 said:
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Colston. I think it would take a complete collapse of the N.O. offense or injury for his numbers to drop. I don't see the N.O. offense falling apart and injuries are a roll of the dice.I
I am 100% in agreementSimilar threads
