Combo Plays — QB-RB, QB-WR, Et Cetera (1 Viewer)

[taylormeetstheismann]

If anyone knows of good studies on differing two player combos like QB-RB, QB-WR, RB-WR, QB-PK, et cetera, I’d like to brush up as it’s been a long time since I looked into it and there wasn’t much out there back then.

 

[Gruden's Keyboard]

Not a study, but my gut says:

QB + RB stack will generally raise your floor, but lower your ceiling. One of them has to be elite, like top 3 QB or RB, for me to want to do this. It's banking on the offense to put up big numbers, while expecting your players to account for every TD their team scores.

QB + WR stack will generally lower your floor, but increase your ceiling. It's the nuts for DFS/BestBall/ Tournaments. For redraft, it's nice if you can get it, but it's not worth reaching on players for.

RB + WR stack is a tournament strat. It's basically betting that the team will get into a shootout, or the offense is hyper efficient and funnels everything to your guys. Super game script dependent.

WR + WR stack feels neutral. Gamescript dependent of course.

TE + QB stack positive EV.

TE + WR stack negative EV.

TE + RB stack very negative EV. There's a correlation between TE and RB production. Pick one or the other, but never both outside of DFS exceptions.

QB + Kicker stack would be negative EV in a tournament. Really only useful in redraft when you're stuck with a mediocre QB (think Derek Carr.)

 

[BobbyLayne]

IME Burrow+Chase or Tee in a downpour = no bueno

YW

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I just try to put the best team together I can regardless without reaching for combos. If anything I like to diversify so as not to fall victim to days like what Mr. Layne described above. The bonus is you also get to spread out your bye weeks.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I just try to put the best team together I can regardless without reaching for combos. If anything I like to diversify so as not to fall victim to days like what Mr. Layne described above. The bonus is you also get to spread out your bye weeks.

Help me understand your point here as I’m also looking to put the best team together I can and that is why I‘m looking to learn more about how same team player combos (or “stacks” as they are called now) can be applied to improve my chances of winning a head-to-head matchup. That’s the purpose of the thread.

You’re basically saying that you are avoiding them which is fine but how do you actually know that lineup diversification is somehow better than stacking? Have you worked out the statistical probabilities to come to this conclusion?

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Not a study, but my gut says:

QB + RB stack will generally raise your floor, but lower your ceiling. One of them has to be elite, like top 3 QB or RB, for me to want to do this. It's banking on the offense to put up big numbers, while expecting your players to account for every TD their team scores.

QB + WR stack will generally lower your floor, but increase your ceiling. It's the nuts for DFS/BestBall/ Tournaments. For redraft, it's nice if you can get it, but it's not worth reaching on players for.

RB + WR stack is a tournament strat. It's basically betting that the team will get into a shootout, or the offense is hyper efficient and funnels everything to your guys. Super game script dependent.

WR + WR stack feels neutral. Gamescript dependent of course.

TE + QB stack positive EV.

TE + WR stack negative EV.

TE + RB stack very negative EV. There's a correlation between TE and RB production. Pick one or the other, but never both outside of DFS exceptions.

QB + Kicker stack would be negative EV in a tournament. Really only useful in redraft when you're stuck with a mediocre QB (think Derek Carr.)

I’m only thinking in terms of a regular head-to-head league and I generally concur with most of your takes but I’d love to see a good statistical study that better characterizes the correlations. If I’m a favorite, I’d like a higher floor and I can accept a lower ceiling. If I’m an underdog, I’d like a higher ceiling and I’ll accept a lower floor. I believe the numbers work out over the long haul to improve my chances of winning. As an extreme example, if my team will score 110 points on average and my opponent will score 100 points on average, I’d love to eliminate both of our ceilings and floors and so we just score our averages and I win every game. Obviously this isn’t possible but I do have some control over my lineup and I might be able to tweak the odds a little bit here and there. I’m happy to improve my chances of getting 2 TDs and decrease my chances of getting 1-3 TDs.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I just try to put the best team together I can regardless without reaching for combos. If anything I like to diversify so as not to fall victim to days like what Mr. Layne described above. The bonus is you also get to spread out your bye weeks.

Help me understand your point here as I’m also looking to put the best team together I can and that is why I‘m looking to learn more about how same team player combos (or “stacks” as they are called now) can be applied to improve my chances of winning a head-to-head matchup. That’s the purpose of the thread.

You’re basically saying that you are avoiding them which is fine but how do you actually know that lineup diversification is somehow better than stacking? Have you worked out the statistical probabilities to come to this conclusion?

My main point is to always put your best players forward. In a tight situation I prefer a diverse lineup for the reasons I stated. Just like you I am not quoting studies, just my own opinions and experience. I've just seen too many people reach for things better left for daily contests where one needs to take chances.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I just try to put the best team together I can regardless without reaching for combos. If anything I like to diversify so as not to fall victim to days like what Mr. Layne described above. The bonus is you also get to spread out your bye weeks.

Help me understand your point here as I’m also looking to put the best team together I can and that is why I‘m looking to learn more about how same team player combos (or “stacks” as they are called now) can be applied to improve my chances of winning a head-to-head matchup. That’s the purpose of the thread.

You’re basically saying that you are avoiding them which is fine but how do you actually know that lineup diversification is somehow better than stacking? Have you worked out the statistical probabilities to come to this conclusion?

My main point is to always put your best players forward. In a tight situation I prefer a diverse lineup for the reasons I stated. Just like you I am not quoting studies, just my own opinions and experience. I've just seen too many people reach for things better left for daily contests where one needs to take chances.

I’m 100% confident that putting your best players forward is sub-optimal in a head-to-head format. It’s very often the best approach but there are times when there are other approaches that can be better. In example, nearly 20 years ago I was playing in a 12 team league week 15 semi-final game and I started Denver QB Jake Plummer and my opponent started Denver WR Rod Smith and TE Jeb Putzier. Personally, I thought my opponent made a serious mistake “putting his best players forward” when two of his players relied on their points from the points of my player. Those players were unlikely to have a big day without Plummer providing it BUT Plummer could have a big day throwing to other targets. I was the clear favorite going into the game and I won that game 89-83. It’s not to say that I couldn’t have lost but my odds of winning were improved by some measure based on the interrelationship of our lineups. Since they were the underdog, they would have been better off starting another player from their roster or finding a couple players off of waivers to avoid the correlation with my players. If they were the favorite, I would have considered starting QB Matt Hasselbeck or looked into my waiver wire options for a different QB.

I find others often think that putting in the lineup that “scores the most” is best but that’s a fallacy in a head-to-head league. The reality is that it’s better to put in the lineup that offers the best chance to win the game. You only need one more point than your opponent to win. This is why I’m interested in better understanding the underlying probabilities associated with “stacks” and “clashes”.

 

[Gruden's Keyboard]

"If I’m a favorite, I’d like a higher floor and I can accept a lower ceiling. If I’m an underdog, I’d like a higher ceiling and I’ll accept a lower floor." @taylormeetstheismann

I follow your line of thinking

Naturally I would like to minimize variables and reduce variance as much as possible. But with so much human element involved, I don't believe there is such a thing as a safe play in Fantasy Football. The more you look to raise your floor, you are conversely lowering your ceiling. Setting your weekly lineup to give yourself the best chance to win your matchup is good practice..but don't approach drafting like that. You have to be prepared to take on a certain amount of risk.

"I’m happy to improve my chances of getting 2 TDs and decrease my chances of getting 1-3 TDs." @taylormeetstheismann

^This is a good example of you possibly being too risk avererse. This game is about scoring as many points as possible. Why settle for 2 TDs, when 2/3 times in your scenario you will score 2+ touchdowns? Playing to win beats playing not to lose..

"I’m 100% confident that putting your best players forward is sub-optimal in a head-to-head format." @taylormeetstheismann

^ I completely agree with this for setting your lineup week to week.

 

[Runkle]

What you are asking for is related to variance theory, if you want to maximize your odds of winning head-to-head matchups you will also need to include the correlations going the other way, that is, how you are also offsetting risk that applies to your head-to-head opponent's roster. You'll not only have to include your own stacks but how your players correlate to your specific opponent's players and the games they are in. There may be times where QB+WR is or is not preferable to your opponent having either the RB on that team, or, perhaps the QB or RB of their NFL game's opponent.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Maybe my problem is that in my league I am quite often the favorite and thus simply want to max my floor to retain that advantage.

 

[Chaka]

I try to draft and start the players that score the most points.