Complete first round mock draft (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

I was messing around and my board fell into place.

Some notes:

- Big trade up by New England. They have been acquiring picks and finally cash some of them in for a number one wide receiver.

- Last year Sergio Kindle's knee had him fall to the middle of the second round. He wasn't as talented as Bowers and had other off-field issues to deal with so Bowers could be snatched in the first round but I think the knee is a legit issue and he will have an big fall and in this draft I have him falling completely out of the first round.

- I feel Prince is going to turn into an excellent corner and I think others feel the same way so I have Houston moving up before the Boys to make sure they get him.

- I think that if Cleveland were to fall so far down the board that they would make sure they got the guy they wanted so the last deal I have makes sense for both Minnesota and Cleveland.

1. Carolina: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

2. Denver: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

3. Buffalo: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

4. Cincinnati: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

5. Arizona: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

*6. New England: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

(NE trades #17 & #33 to CLE for #6)

First trade kicks off. NE got rid of Moss and the wideouts they have drafted recently haven’t worked out and Deon Branch isn’t what he once was and he’s getting older. Welker is the slot guy but they lack a true deep threat. Listen to the interview that Cecil did with the Pats beat writer for her explanation of how the Jets shut down the Pats passing attack in last year’s playoffs due to the lack of a deep threat.

http://podcast.footballguys.com/2011/Footballguys-Audible-2011-Vol49a.mp3

7. San Francisco: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

*8. Houston: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

(HOU trades #11 & #105 to TEN for #8)

Kubiak’s job is on the line. He needs instant impact from his top pick and trying to convert a down defensive lineman to outside linebacker is a two-year conversion or time he doesn’t have to spare. Prince would make an instant impact.

9. Dallas: Tyron Smith, OT, Southern Cal

10. Washington: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

*11. Tennessee: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

(from HOU)

The Titans get the guy they want and pick up an extra fourth round pick.

*12. Cleveland: Ryan Kerrigan, OLB/DE, Purdue

(CLE trades #17 acquired from NE & # 70 to MIN)

The Browns are high on Kerrigan and make a move back up to assure landing him.

13. Detroit: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

14. St. Louis: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

15. Miami: Mark Ingram, HB, Alabama

16. Jacksonville: Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal

*17. Minnesota: Jake Locker, QB, Washington

(from CLE via NE)

Vikes get back third round pick they lost in the fiasco to get Randy Moss for a week last year.

18. San Diego: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

19. NY Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

20. Tampa Bay: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

21. Kansas City: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor

22. Indianapolis: Mike Pouncey, C, Florida

23. Philadelphia: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

24. New Orleans: Ryan Williams, HB, Virginia Tech

25. Seattle: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

26. Baltimore: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

27. Atlanta: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Norte Dame

28. New England: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

29. Chicago: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

30. NY Jets: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

31. Pittsburgh: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas

32. Green Bay: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

===========================================================

Just missed:

Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona

Mikel Leshoure ,RB, Illinois

Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

Jon Baldwin, WR, Pitt

Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky

 

[shader]

I don't see any way Bowers falls out of the first. I also think the "knee thing", as is the case with Ingram, is a smokescreen.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I don't see any way Bowers falls out of the first. I also think the "knee thing", as is the case with Ingram, is a smokescreen.

He had surgery before the Combine, that wasn't a smokescreen.Since he missed the Combine his Pro-Day was his showcase for the league to prove his knee was fine and he did not perform well, that was not a smokescreen.I think his knee is a legitimate issue and he will fall much further than people believe.

 

[Funkley]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

I agree with you and figure that the Pats would have to include one of their third round picks but I wasn't sure if one were awarded by the league for losing free agents and those picks cannot be traded and then I have the Browns trading a third to Minnesota to move up for Kerrigan and didn't want to get to detailed on which later picks would go to the Vikings.Basically I wanted to keep it clean but I agree with you 100% that New England would have to include a package of more picks and they can afford it and Julio would be the last legit number-one deep threat WR so if they are in the market they will pay market price and then the move back up with the Browns would make more sense because they would still have a third round selection.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Seahawks won't take Mallet. He doesn't fit what they want to do and they will probably trade down/out of the first round.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Seahawks won't take Mallet. He doesn't fit what they want to do and they will probably trade down/out of the first round.

It was my toughest selection, the one I struggled with mor than any other pick but I actually have liked Mallet more than others since I first saw him. I truly think he will turn into the best QB of this draft when its all said and done.I also think if they passed on him in the first round that he would never make it past the top of the second round to where they would get a shot to get him with their second round pick.So I agree that he is not viewed as a first round talent by most and I stuggled with that selection more than any other but in the end it made the most sense to me.

 

[Blackjacks]

Great Mock, well thought out

I like the Ryan Williams call to New Orleans.

I just read where he is going tot he draft. He must be getting alot of positive feedback form teams to want to go there.

I don't think NE will give up that with pressing needs on there defense and many spots to fill but they are a hard team to figure out.

I like the Minnesota moving back and picking up Locker.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Great Mock, well thought outI like the Ryan Williams call to New Orleans.I just read where he is going tot he draft. He must be getting alot of positive feedback form teams to want to go there.I don't think NE will give up that with pressing needs on there defense and many spots to fill but they are a hard team to figure out.I like the Minnesota moving back and picking up Locker.

Thanks.Per Rye-Will: I love that he's always going forward, although not explosive he somehow scoots-by defenders and gets out of jams. Slippery/elusive and deceptive in many ways. I feel he will do very well in the league for a long time.I agree that NE is tough to figure out and that is why I leaned so heavily on the Pat beat writer's intuition. She and I feel they are going to make a big move up and the one position that she feels is a big need is a number-one deep threat wideout and this draft only has two legit blue-chppers and Julio fits to a 'T' what the Pats need.The top five picks seemed locked-in stone to me. I have a sneaky suspicion that Arizona has a back-pocket deal in place with a veteran QB so they will pass on Gabbert and get the best player of the draft with Peterson so I don't think the Pats will be able to make any of the top-five teams budge but I think the Browns can be persuaded to flinch enough where a deal can be worked out.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

I agree with you and figure that the Pats would have to include one of their third round picks but I wasn't sure if one were awarded by the league for losing free agents and those picks cannot be traded and then I have the Browns trading a third to Minnesota to move up for Kerrigan and didn't want to get to detailed on which later picks would go to the Vikings.Basically I wanted to keep it clean but I agree with you 100% that New England would have to include a package of more picks and they can afford it and Julio would be the last legit number-one deep threat WR so if they are in the market they will pay market price and then the move back up with the Browns would make more sense because they would still have a third round selection.

Not likely a Belichick move, is it? The pressing need of the team is not a glamour WR and they will be moving either 17, 28 or 33 to acquire more picks for next season (they only have 5 picks in 12). You might have overlooked the fact that one guard retired and another has been in a pissing contest w/ the owner about his contract and could be out the door after the CBA settles. Thanks for playing and drive home safely.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

I agree with you and figure that the Pats would have to include one of their third round picks but I wasn't sure if one were awarded by the league for losing free agents and those picks cannot be traded and then I have the Browns trading a third to Minnesota to move up for Kerrigan and didn't want to get to detailed on which later picks would go to the Vikings.Basically I wanted to keep it clean but I agree with you 100% that New England would have to include a package of more picks and they can afford it and Julio would be the last legit number-one deep threat WR so if they are in the market they will pay market price and then the move back up with the Browns would make more sense because they would still have a third round selection.

Not likely a Belichick move, is it? The pressing need of the team is not a glamour WR and they will be moving either 17, 28 or 33 to acquire more picks for next season (they only have 5 picks in 12). You might have overlooked the fact that one guard retired and another has been in a pissing contest w/ the owner about his contract and could be out the door after the CBA settles. Thanks for playing and drive home safely.

I don't think anyone can say what a Bilichick move is so I feel I have an even footing with most on what Bill may or may not do.Per your last line...

Ahem.

28. New England: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

 

[Cassius]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

I agree with you and figure that the Pats would have to include one of their third round picks but I wasn't sure if one were awarded by the league for losing free agents and those picks cannot be traded and then I have the Browns trading a third to Minnesota to move up for Kerrigan and didn't want to get to detailed on which later picks would go to the Vikings.Basically I wanted to keep it clean but I agree with you 100% that New England would have to include a package of more picks and they can afford it and Julio would be the last legit number-one deep threat WR so if they are in the market they will pay market price and then the move back up with the Browns would make more sense because they would still have a third round selection.

Not likely a Belichick move, is it? The pressing need of the team is not a glamour WR and they will be moving either 17, 28 or 33 to acquire more picks for next season (they only have 5 picks in 12). You might have overlooked the fact that one guard retired and another has been in a pissing contest w/ the owner about his contract and could be out the door after the CBA settles. Thanks for playing and drive home safely.

One presumes to know what the Patriots will do at his/her own peril. It would not be a "Belichik move" to move up and get Jones, but neither was it such to draft Maroney/Chad Jackson in the first two rounds several years ago. Don't rule anything out. Thanks for playing.

 

[daveR]

While I would love to see the Browns acquire #33, which will be extremely valuable for teams looking to round 2 for a QB, I agree that NE has greater needs than WR.

I'm still interested in the Vikes pick, though. I want 2 DEs from this draft. People are saying the Vikes want a QB. How do we manage to acquire 1.20 - 1.25 for them?

 

[5Rings]

good read

i personally don't like Gabbert, and hope SF doesn't take him...but I can see how it makes sense in your mock.

 

[BigDave]

I like you thoughts on NE moving up for Julio but I think it's with Dallas.

SF and Tenn are not on anyone's radar for a WR, so Dallas at #9 makes more sense.

They can sneak in before Wash at #10 & St. L. at #14.

It wouldn't cost them as much either. Something like 17, 60 & 92 for #9. Dallas would pickup a late 2nd and 3rd.

Also, I think having #33 gives NE lots of trading power for day #2. there will be lots of teams willing to trade up to that spot to get the guy that slipped day one. NE can trade down a little after having the #9 and #28 day one.

 

[Abrantes]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

I agree with you and figure that the Pats would have to include one of their third round picks but I wasn't sure if one were awarded by the league for losing free agents and those picks cannot be traded and then I have the Browns trading a third to Minnesota to move up for Kerrigan and didn't want to get to detailed on which later picks would go to the Vikings.Basically I wanted to keep it clean but I agree with you 100% that New England would have to include a package of more picks and they can afford it and Julio would be the last legit number-one deep threat WR so if they are in the market they will pay market price and then the move back up with the Browns would make more sense because they would still have a third round selection.

Being able to afford it isn't the issue. Overpaying for Julio Jones would just be utterly unlike the Patriots MO. Moving up in the first round for need (not to mention that it's a WR), while giving up the kind of draft leverage that comes with the 33rd pick? I can't see it at all, even though it's the second time I see this prediction today (the other case had them moving up to 13).

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I like you thoughts on NE moving up for Julio but I think it's with Dallas.SF and Tenn are not on anyone's radar for a WR, so Dallas at #9 makes more sense. They can sneak in before Wash at #10 & St. L. at #14. It wouldn't cost them as much either. Something like 17, 60 & 92 for #9. Dallas would pickup a late 2nd and 3rd. Also, I think having #33 gives NE lots of trading power for day #2. there will be lots of teams willing to trade up to that spot to get the guy that slipped day one. NE can trade down a little after having the #9 and #28 day one.

I think that Cleveland is the first and a substantial threat to take Julio and I also pointed out how I don't think the Pats could trade into the top-five picks so they would have to deal with Cleveland or else I would agree with you that they would prefer to not move up as high for Jones.If you look at the last five Patriots drafts the second best player (to McCourty) that they have gotten so-far is probably Jerod Mayo whom they moved into the top-ten to make sure they got. Jerod wasn't considered a top-ten pick in many mocks and when it was annouced that the Pats had moved up it was thought they were targeting Rivers because he was rated higher on most every pre-draft list. The Patriots will move up and pay a reasonable amount to do so when they want a player.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

17 and 33 doesn't seem like enough to move to 6.

I agree with you and figure that the Pats would have to include one of their third round picks but I wasn't sure if one were awarded by the league for losing free agents and those picks cannot be traded and then I have the Browns trading a third to Minnesota to move up for Kerrigan and didn't want to get to detailed on which later picks would go to the Vikings.Basically I wanted to keep it clean but I agree with you 100% that New England would have to include a package of more picks and they can afford it and Julio would be the last legit number-one deep threat WR so if they are in the market they will pay market price and then the move back up with the Browns would make more sense because they would still have a third round selection.

Being able to afford it isn't the issue. Overpaying for Julio Jones would just be utterly unlike the Patriots MO. Moving up in the first round for need (not to mention that it's a WR), while giving up the kind of draft leverage that comes with the 33rd pick? I can't see it at all, even though it's the second time I see this prediction today (the other case had them moving up to 13).

I'm not sure that the 33rd (Masonic number oooh) pick is going to be as valuable as many are saying as a matter of fact I think its been overblown and no-one will make an offer to move up to the top pick of the second round. Jes my humble opinion.

 

[Atomic Punk]

Wow, great minds think alike. I also have NE trading up in the first round albeit for a much different reason. I think they realized they cannot succeed without heavily investing in their defense, so I see the move up for a DE. There are more than a few teams clamoring for DE's in the early to mid part of the first, if the Pats want "their guy", they are going to have to move up for him.

Good read.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Wow, great minds think alike. I also have NE trading up in the first round albeit for a much different reason. I think they realized they cannot succeed without heavily investing in their defense, so I see the move up for a DE. There are more than a few teams clamoring for DE's in the early to mid part of the first, if the Pats want "their guy", they are going to have to move up for him.

Good read.

And apparently so do your two.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

If you look at the last five Patriots drafts the second best player (to McCourty) that they have gotten so-far is probably Jerod Mayo whom they moved into the top-ten to make sure they got. Jerod wasn't considered a top-ten pick in many mocks and when it was annouced that the Pats had moved up it was thought they were targeting Rivers because he was rated higher on most every pre-draft list.

The Patriots will move up and pay a reasonable amount to do so when they want a player.

F A I L . The actual swap was the 1st round pick acquired from SF (7th overall) and a 5th round pick to N.O. for the Saints' first round, (10th pick), and 3rd round pick.Traded 2008 first round pick (#10-Jerod Mayo), 2008 third round pick (#78-Shawn Crable) to Patriots for 2008 first round pick (#7-Sedrick Ellis), 2008 fifth round pick (#164-Carl Nicks) on 2008-04-26

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

The last 'decent' WR the Patriots have drafted was Deon Branch and after dishing away Moss they re-acquired Branch to soothe the feelings of Tom Brady but Deon isn't the same player that he was and he's 33 years old.Here are the wideouts that the Patriots have taken in the draft since Branch:

2003

2nd round

Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M

2004

5th round

P.K. Sam WR Florida State

2006

2nd round

Chad Jackson WR Florida

2008

5th round

Matt Slater WR UCLA

2009

3rd round

Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

7th round

Julian Edelman QB/WR Kent State

2010

3rd round

Taylor Price WR Ohio

If they hadn't gotten Wes Welker in free agency and traded for Randy Moss they would have had a difficult time getting production from that group.

Oh and Wes Welker is in the last year of his contract so it might be tough to pay out big bucks for a guy coming off a major injury especially since he didn't produce after the Pats lost a legitimate #1 WR in Randy Moss.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

If you look at the last five Patriots drafts the second best player (to McCourty) that they have gotten so-far is probably Jerod Mayo whom they moved into the top-ten to make sure they got. Jerod wasn't considered a top-ten pick in many mocks and when it was annouced that the Pats had moved up it was thought they were targeting Rivers because he was rated higher on most every pre-draft list.

The Patriots will move up and pay a reasonable amount to do so when they want a player.

F A I L . The actual swap was the 1st round pick acquired from SF (7th overall) and a 5th round pick to N.O. for the Saints' first round, (10th pick), and 3rd round pick.Traded 2008 first round pick (#10-Jerod Mayo), 2008 third round pick (#78-Shawn Crable) to Patriots for 2008 first round pick (#7-Sedrick Ellis), 2008 fifth round pick (#164-Carl Nicks) on 2008-04-26

Ah there ya go.The Patriots got a good LBer and the Saints got two solid starters on a SB winning team.

Sorry I made a mistake and didn't catch that.

 

[Boston]

I would not be happy if the Pats traded up that high and went WR...by far their biggest need is addressing the pass rush...after that it's O-line...there's no doubt a player like Jones would help them but right now it's not a luxury they can afford...if they wanted an impact skill player I would rather they take Ingram at #17 or go up a few picks to get him.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

The last 'decent' WR the Patriots have drafted was Deon Branch and after dishing away Moss they re-acquired Branch to soothe the feelings of Tom Brady but Deon isn't the same player that he was and he's 33 years old.Here are the wideouts that the Patriots have taken in the draft since Branch:

2003

2nd round

Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M

2004

5th round

P.K. Sam WR Florida State

2006

2nd round

Chad Jackson WR Florida

2008

5th round

Matt Slater WR UCLA

2009

3rd round

Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

7th round

Julian Edelman QB/WR Kent State

2010

3rd round

Taylor Price WR Ohio

If they hadn't gotten Wes Welker in free agency and traded for Randy Moss they would have had a difficult time getting production from that group.

Oh and Wes Welker is in the last year of his contract so it might be tough to pay out big bucks for a guy coming off a major injury especially since he didn't produce after the Pats lost a legitimate #1 WR in Randy Moss.

If your point was that the Pats have been poor at drafting WR, I didn't need convincing. IMO, this is another reason why they wouldn't give up multiple picks to move up to take a WR. They have traded up in the past for receivers and they didn't pan out.The issue for the Pats last year WAS NOT the receiving corps, no matter how much people want to point to the second Jets game. Why not point to the first Jets game when they shredded the Jets secondary?

I think there is a better chance they bring back Moss for minimum wage then there is them moving into the Top 5 for a WR.

As you also pointed out, Welker's contract is due to run out after this year. IMO, paying big money to a rookie receiver could spell the end of Welker's time in NE (as I doubt they would pay out big money to both).

I don't think the Pats have written off Tate or Price yet (and Hernandez is really a WR playing as a TE). If the Pats had the defense they had 10 years ago, they might make a move to grab a top rookie WR, but given that they have some depth issues on defense I don't see it happening . . .

 

[eakfootball]

Dam I would love Jones up here.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

The last 'decent' WR the Patriots have drafted was Deon Branch and after dishing away Moss they re-acquired Branch to soothe the feelings of Tom Brady but Deon isn't the same player that he was and he's 33 years old.Here are the wideouts that the Patriots have taken in the draft since Branch:

2003

2nd round

Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M

2004

5th round

P.K. Sam WR Florida State

2006

2nd round

Chad Jackson WR Florida

2008

5th round

Matt Slater WR UCLA

2009

3rd round

Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

7th round

Julian Edelman QB/WR Kent State

2010

3rd round

Taylor Price WR Ohio

If they hadn't gotten Wes Welker in free agency and traded for Randy Moss they would have had a difficult time getting production from that group.

Oh and Wes Welker is in the last year of his contract so it might be tough to pay out big bucks for a guy coming off a major injury especially since he didn't produce after the Pats lost a legitimate #1 WR in Randy Moss.

If your point was that the Pats have been poor at drafting WR, I didn't need convincing. IMO, this is another reason why they wouldn't give up multiple picks to move up to take a WR. They have traded up in the past for receivers and they didn't pan out.The issue for the Pats last year WAS NOT the receiving corps, no matter how much people want to point to the second Jets game. Why not point to the first Jets game when they shredded the Jets secondary?

I think there is a better chance they bring back Moss for minimum wage then there is them moving into the Top 5 for a WR.

As you also pointed out, Welker's contract is due to run out after this year. IMO, paying big money to a rookie receiver could spell the end of Welker's time in NE (as I doubt they would pay out big money to both).

I don't think the Pats have written off Tate or Price yet (and Hernandez is really a WR playing as a TE). If the Pats had the defense they had 10 years ago, they might make a move to grab a top rookie WR, but given that they have some depth issues on defense I don't see it happening . . .

Its obvious that the Pats haven't been able to hit on WRs drafted outside of the first round so I'd refer to Einstien's definition of insanity."The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". --Albert Einstein

Its broken so the Pats can keep doing the same thing or try something radically different to fix the WR drafting process.

Here are NFL Combine Comparison Numbers of Julio Jones & A.J. Green

Julio Jones / A.J. Green

Ht/ Wt

Size: 6026- 220 lbs. / 6035 – 211 lbs.

40-yard dash: 4.39 / 4.50

Broad jump: 11’3″ / 10’6”

Vertical jump: 38.5″ / 34.5”

3-cone drill: 6.66 / 6.91

20-yard shuttle: 4.25 / 4.21

60-yard shuttle: 11.07 / 11.46

Bench press: 17 reps / 18 reps @ 225 lbs.

Jones posted those numbers with a broken bone in his foot.

Or the Pats could keep on drafting guys after the first round.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

The last 'decent' WR the Patriots have drafted was Deon Branch and after dishing away Moss they re-acquired Branch to soothe the feelings of Tom Brady but Deon isn't the same player that he was and he's 33 years old.Here are the wideouts that the Patriots have taken in the draft since Branch:

2003

2nd round

Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M

2004

5th round

P.K. Sam WR Florida State

2006

2nd round

Chad Jackson WR Florida

2008

5th round

Matt Slater WR UCLA

2009

3rd round

Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

7th round

Julian Edelman QB/WR Kent State

2010

3rd round

Taylor Price WR Ohio

If they hadn't gotten Wes Welker in free agency and traded for Randy Moss they would have had a difficult time getting production from that group.

Oh and Wes Welker is in the last year of his contract so it might be tough to pay out big bucks for a guy coming off a major injury especially since he didn't produce after the Pats lost a legitimate #1 WR in Randy Moss.

If your point was that the Pats have been poor at drafting WR, I didn't need convincing. IMO, this is another reason why they wouldn't give up multiple picks to move up to take a WR. They have traded up in the past for receivers and they didn't pan out.The issue for the Pats last year WAS NOT the receiving corps, no matter how much people want to point to the second Jets game. Why not point to the first Jets game when they shredded the Jets secondary?

I think there is a better chance they bring back Moss for minimum wage then there is them moving into the Top 5 for a WR.

As you also pointed out, Welker's contract is due to run out after this year. IMO, paying big money to a rookie receiver could spell the end of Welker's time in NE (as I doubt they would pay out big money to both).

I don't think the Pats have written off Tate or Price yet (and Hernandez is really a WR playing as a TE). If the Pats had the defense they had 10 years ago, they might make a move to grab a top rookie WR, but given that they have some depth issues on defense I don't see it happening . . .

Its obvious that the Pats haven't been able to hit on WRs drafted outside of the first round so I'd refer to Einstien's definition of insanity."The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". --Albert Einstein

Its broken so the Pats can keep doing the same thing or try something radically different to fix the WR drafting process.

Here are NFL Combine Comparison Numbers of Julio Jones & A.J. Green

Julio Jones / A.J. Green

Ht/ Wt

Size: 6026- 220 lbs. / 6035 – 211 lbs.

40-yard dash: 4.39 / 4.50

Broad jump: 11’3″ / 10’6”

Vertical jump: 38.5″ / 34.5”

3-cone drill: 6.66 / 6.91

20-yard shuttle: 4.25 / 4.21

60-yard shuttle: 11.07 / 11.46

Bench press: 17 reps / 18 reps @ 225 lbs.

Jones posted those numbers with a broken bone in his foot.

Or the Pats could keep on drafting guys after the first round.

Or they can continue to look at other avenues for receivers and trade for them (Moss and Welker) or take to signing free agents.My point was that the Patriots with whomever they have on their roster as receivers scored 518 points last year. The defense allowed 318. In the 3 years they won the SB, they allowed 260, 238, and 272 points. NE has now had two seasons in recent years that they scored 500 points and didn't win the title. Until they can get the defense to where it was in the early 00s, NE could have problems winning it all again if the defense has as many lapses as they have in the past few years.

I'm not personally suggesting that the Pats couldn't use a shiny new toy at receiver. But given their needs in other areas, I doubt they would package picks to move up for a top WR. They won 3 titles with pretty much no one to speak of catching the ball. They have proven they can win without a big name as a go to guy.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

The last 'decent' WR the Patriots have drafted was Deon Branch and after dishing away Moss they re-acquired Branch to soothe the feelings of Tom Brady but Deon isn't the same player that he was and he's 33 years old.Here are the wideouts that the Patriots have taken in the draft since Branch:

2003

2nd round

Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M

2004

5th round

P.K. Sam WR Florida State

2006

2nd round

Chad Jackson WR Florida

2008

5th round

Matt Slater WR UCLA

2009

3rd round

Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

7th round

Julian Edelman QB/WR Kent State

2010

3rd round

Taylor Price WR Ohio

If they hadn't gotten Wes Welker in free agency and traded for Randy Moss they would have had a difficult time getting production from that group.

Oh and Wes Welker is in the last year of his contract so it might be tough to pay out big bucks for a guy coming off a major injury especially since he didn't produce after the Pats lost a legitimate #1 WR in Randy Moss.

If your point was that the Pats have been poor at drafting WR, I didn't need convincing. IMO, this is another reason why they wouldn't give up multiple picks to move up to take a WR. They have traded up in the past for receivers and they didn't pan out.The issue for the Pats last year WAS NOT the receiving corps, no matter how much people want to point to the second Jets game. Why not point to the first Jets game when they shredded the Jets secondary?

I think there is a better chance they bring back Moss for minimum wage then there is them moving into the Top 5 for a WR.

As you also pointed out, Welker's contract is due to run out after this year. IMO, paying big money to a rookie receiver could spell the end of Welker's time in NE (as I doubt they would pay out big money to both).

I don't think the Pats have written off Tate or Price yet (and Hernandez is really a WR playing as a TE). If the Pats had the defense they had 10 years ago, they might make a move to grab a top rookie WR, but given that they have some depth issues on defense I don't see it happening . . .

Its obvious that the Pats haven't been able to hit on WRs drafted outside of the first round so I'd refer to Einstien's definition of insanity."The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". --Albert Einstein

Its broken so the Pats can keep doing the same thing or try something radically different to fix the WR drafting process.

Here are NFL Combine Comparison Numbers of Julio Jones & A.J. Green

Julio Jones / A.J. Green

Ht/ Wt

Size: 6026- 220 lbs. / 6035 – 211 lbs.

40-yard dash: 4.39 / 4.50

Broad jump: 11’3″ / 10’6”

Vertical jump: 38.5″ / 34.5”

3-cone drill: 6.66 / 6.91

20-yard shuttle: 4.25 / 4.21

60-yard shuttle: 11.07 / 11.46

Bench press: 17 reps / 18 reps @ 225 lbs.

Jones posted those numbers with a broken bone in his foot.

Or the Pats could keep on drafting guys after the first round.

Or they can continue to look at other avenues for receivers and trade for them (Moss and Welker) or take to signing free agents.My point was that the Patriots with whomever they have on their roster as receivers scored 518 points last year. The defense allowed 318. In the 3 years they won the SB, they allowed 260, 238, and 272 points. NE has now had two seasons in recent years that they scored 500 points and didn't win the title. Until they can get the defense to where it was in the early 00s, NE could have problems winning it all again if the defense has as many lapses as they have in the past few years.

I'm not personally suggesting that the Pats couldn't use a shiny new toy at receiver. But given their needs in other areas, I doubt they would package picks to move up for a top WR. They won 3 titles with pretty much no one to speak of catching the ball. They have proven they can win without a big name as a go to guy.

The fascination with draft picks is why Belichick traded away Richard Seymour and Randy Moss.At some point the law of dimishing returns kicks in.

Getting all of those draft picks started right around the time the SB wins stopped.

I'm of the opinion that blue-chip talent wins SBs and its easier to find blue chip talent at the top of the draft. This draft is unique in that thei has been no free agency movement or trades for teams to help address needs so the draft will be more directed for teams to address needs and teams who are SB contenders will be hard pressed to nail team needs with draft picks.

This is a draft that is deep with front-seven defensive talent but their are only two blue-chip wideouts. The Patriots have a healthy need at in my opinion for a blue-chip talent at WR so their options are limited to doing the same ole-same ole and we both know how that has played out or they can make a move to land one of the blue-chippers.

I think they can get a defender later on but we know their track record of finding WRs later.

 

[Faust]

Pats draft speculation from Peter King

Excerpt from MMQB:

Stat of the Week

Number of Patriots picks in the top 33 of the draft: 3.

Most picks for a team other than New England in the top 33: 30 tied with 1 apiece.

It's become fashionable in the past couple of weeks to wonder if New England could package those picks, the 17th, 28th and 33rd overall, for a pick in the top five to get the pass-rushing 3-4 linebacker they want, Von Miller, or the franchise receiver they need, either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. To do so, clearly they'd have to move to number three overall, to assure they'd get the player they want, because Buffalo is heavily involved with Miller, and the Bengals may take one of the receivers.

So let's break out the NFL draft trade chart, which places a numerical value on the choices in all seven rounds, to see what the Patriots would have to do to move up to number three under this scenario. The answer is remarkably clean.

According to the chart, the third overall pick is worth 2,200 points. The value of the Pats' three top picks: 17 (950), 28 (660), 33 (580). Total value of the three picks: 2,190.

So the chart would tell you that to get Von Miller or A.J. Green, even if Buffalo were willing to move down, the Patriots would have to use all three picks. That, of course, is assuming the Bills and Patriots take the chart as gospel, and many teams absolutely do not.

I believe Bill Belichick would rather hire Eric Mangini as his press-conference coach than to trade all three picks for anyone in this draft. To get one of those players, he'd be trading the pick he acquired for Richard Seymour, his own, and the pick he got last year for dealing a third-rounder to Carolina for the Panthers' second-round pick this year. That's an incredible amount of loot.

Now, the chart is not gospel. Teams don't have to use it. But it just shows you how valuable the third overall pick is, and it's highly unlikely the Bills would take much of a discount, if any, for dealing that choice, particularly if it meant giving a division rival a franchise player for the next 10 years.

I also remember reading some draft speculation that the Patriots wouldn't be afraid to trade down if they could add picks in the 2012 draft, as they only have 5 picks in that draft.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

10. Washington: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Teaming up with Orakpo?Result: MURDER!

 

[Faust]

Will Patriots come up snake eyes on draft night?

By William Bendetson

Special to CBSSports.com

April 23, 2011

As astute NFL fans will attest, Patriots coach Bill Belichick has never been afraid to gamble.

He will go for it on fourth down when other coaches would surely punt, and though the phrase "fourth-and-2" instantly conjures up bad memories for Pats fans, those same supporters will acknowledge that the hooded one's dice-rolling instincts are more often than not correct.

In the draft, however, Belichick is the trader investing in low-risk bonds. He has traded up only twice in the first round in 11 years as coach, the last time back in 2003.

Belichick has made "value" a household term in New England. When grading New England's drafts, it's almost more about future draft picks accumulated than current talent collected. Few might remember where great players are selected, but the Pats' ability to manipulate the draft board fascinates fans. Before the draft is even over, there is a clamor to discuss the promise of next year's picks.

While these tactics make draft night exciting, they can "mistake activity for accomplishment," as John Wooden used to say. The result of trading down is teams can receive many serviceable players instead of one really good one. Take the 2009 draft, when the Pats could have selected all-star Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Instead they ended up with Pat Chung, Darius Butler, Ron Brace and Sebastian Vollmer. Chung, Butler and Brace are serviceable while Vollmer has shown himself to be a respectable tackle, but none of the above is a game-changer like Matthews.

Keep that approach in mind when considering New England's 2011 quandary. With six picks in the first three rounds and three in the top 33, using multiple picks to trade up in the first round might be wise. January's playoff loss to the Jets marked the second consecutive year the defense disappeared in the playoffs, didn't make enough plays and seemed to lack a serious impact player. A year earlier, the Ravens' Ray Rice ran for an 83-yard TD on the first play from scrimmage against a futile New England defense, and Baltimore never looked back.

Big plays like Rodney's Harrison interception of Peyton Manning on the Colts' opening drive of the 2003 AFC Championship Game, or Ty Law's interception return of Kurt Warner for a touchdown in the Super Bowl against the Rams, have become the exception rather than the rule. Making plays like that means finding players to make them, a quest that might necessitate moving up in the first round.

One possible target is Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, a likely top-five pick who projects to be a strong 5-technique player, is stout against the run and would make it easier for young linebackers like Jermaine Cunningham to rush the quarterback.

"He has really good hands that allow him to gain great leverage so he can adjust quickly from the run to the pass and his body is square shaped so he has great quickness," Hall of Fame Raiders offensive tackle Art Shell said of Dareus.

Added Temple head coach Steve Addazio, who competed against Dareus while serving as offensive coordinator at Florida, "He was a dominant player -- strong guy who you had to double team in protection and use a lot of combination blocks against. The SEC is the most dominant defensive league in the country so when a guy like Dareus can dominate at that level you know he's ready for the next level."

LSU's Patrick Peterson, the premier cornerback in this draft, could be enticing for Belichick as well. Peterson, who will likely go between No. 5 and No. 8, provides the defense with an excellent corner to supplement Devin McCourty, runner-up for NFL Defensive rookie of the Year in 2010. With Peterson in the fold, offenses would have a difficult time throwing against the Pats, particularly in two-wideout sets.

Addazio thinks Peterson's speed will allow him to play man coverage against most receivers in the NFL.

Standing pat and waiting for one of their desired targets to fall to No. 17, or even to No. 28, would be yet another calculated gamble for Belichick and the Patriots. A team can choose another player or think about moving up the draft board if their target player projects to be selected higher than their current pick.

"It's all speculation -- no one knows," Chargers general manager A.J. Smith said. "The bottom line is the only way to remove that speculation is to trade up. If you knew you could get the player later then you would take him later."

"Even when you trade up you still don't know. That is sometimes why you wait until right before that pick to make the trade in order to see if your guy is available. Teams will often have a list of five players they like at each position so they don't get stuck."

Teams often adhere to the draft board, which sets a value for each pick, and are unwilling to make a trade if the board shows it to be uneven.

"You have to be careful," Eagles coach Andy Reid said. "The temptation is to trade up using a lot of picks and take a player you really like but you have to remember only 50 percent of all first-round picks make it. You also know that if you trade down into the second round your odds of getting a good player can be reduced to 26 percent."

Smith added that ultimately every team has a different opinion on what picks in each round are worth.

"It's really about what type of risk you can live with," Smith said.

In light of the team's recent failures, coupled with the fact that soon-to-be-34-year-old Tom Brady might be nearing the end of his window to put an entire franchise on his back, it's a risk the Pats can ill-afford not to take.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

As I mentioned a few days ago I saw the Pats makinga big move up the boards to the sixth spot for Julio Jones...

... *6. New England: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

(NE trades #17 & #33 to CLE for #6)

First trade kicks off. NE got rid of Moss and the wideouts they have drafted recently haven’t worked out and Deon Branch isn’t what he once was and he’s getting older. Welker is the slot guy but they lack a true deep threat. Listen to the interview that Cecil did with the Pats beat writer for her explanation of how the Jets shut down the Pats passing attack in last year’s playoffs due to the lack of a deep threat.

http://podcast.footb...2011-Vol49a.mp3

Which lead to a bit of fun debate...

The Pats may try to move up a couple spots, but I don't see them jumping way up for a WR. Only the general public thinks the Pats WR corps needs help. They led the league in scoring and need defensive help. I can't see them taking two picks away in a trade and not taking a defensive player. They had no pass rush the past couple of seasons.

The last 'decent' WR the Patriots have drafted was Deon Branch and after dishing away Moss they re-acquired Branch to soothe the feelings of Tom Brady but Deon isn't the same player that he was and he's 33 years old.Here are the wideouts that the Patriots have taken in the draft since Branch:

2003

2nd round

Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M

2004

5th round

P.K. Sam WR Florida State

2006

2nd round

Chad Jackson WR Florida

2008

5th round

Matt Slater WR UCLA

2009

3rd round

Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

7th round

Julian Edelman QB/WR Kent State

2010

3rd round

Taylor Price WR Ohio

If they hadn't gotten Wes Welker in free agency and traded for Randy Moss they would have had a difficult time getting production from that group.

Oh and Wes Welker is in the last year of his contract so it might be tough to pay out big bucks for a guy coming off a major injury especially since he didn't produce after the Pats lost a legitimate #1 WR in Randy Moss.

If your point was that the Pats have been poor at drafting WR, I didn't need convincing. IMO, this is another reason why they wouldn't give up multiple picks to move up to take a WR. They have traded up in the past for receivers and they didn't pan out.The issue for the Pats last year WAS NOT the receiving corps, no matter how much people want to point to the second Jets game. Why not point to the first Jets game when they shredded the Jets secondary?

I think there is a better chance they bring back Moss for minimum wage then there is them moving into the Top 5 for a WR.

As you also pointed out, Welker's contract is due to run out after this year. IMO, paying big money to a rookie receiver could spell the end of Welker's time in NE (as I doubt they would pay out big money to both).

I don't think the Pats have written off Tate or Price yet (and Hernandez is really a WR playing as a TE). If the Pats had the defense they had 10 years ago, they might make a move to grab a top rookie WR, but given that they have some depth issues on defense I don't see it happening . . .

Its obvious that the Pats haven't been able to hit on WRs drafted outside of the first round so I'd refer to Einstien's definition of insanity."The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". --Albert Einstein

Its broken so the Pats can keep doing the same thing or try something radically different to fix the WR drafting process.

Here are NFL Combine Comparison Numbers of Julio Jones & A.J. Green

Julio Jones / A.J. Green

Ht/ Wt

Size: 6026- 220 lbs. / 6035 – 211 lbs.

40-yard dash: 4.39 / 4.50

Broad jump: 11’3″ / 10’6”

Vertical jump: 38.5″ / 34.5”

3-cone drill: 6.66 / 6.91

20-yard shuttle: 4.25 / 4.21

60-yard shuttle: 11.07 / 11.46

Bench press: 17 reps / 18 reps @ 225 lbs.

Jones posted those numbers with a broken bone in his foot.

Or the Pats could keep on drafting guys after the first round.

Or they can continue to look at other avenues for receivers and trade for them (Moss and Welker) or take to signing free agents.My point was that the Patriots with whomever they have on their roster as receivers scored 518 points last year. The defense allowed 318. In the 3 years they won the SB, they allowed 260, 238, and 272 points. NE has now had two seasons in recent years that they scored 500 points and didn't win the title. Until they can get the defense to where it was in the early 00s, NE could have problems winning it all again if the defense has as many lapses as they have in the past few years.

I'm not personally suggesting that the Pats couldn't use a shiny new toy at receiver. But given their needs in other areas, I doubt they would package picks to move up for a top WR. They won 3 titles with pretty much no one to speak of catching the ball. They have proven they can win without a big name as a go to guy.

The fascination with draft picks is why Belichick traded away Richard Seymour and Randy Moss.At some point the law of dimishing returns kicks in.

Getting all of those draft picks started right around the time the SB wins stopped.

I'm of the opinion that blue-chip talent wins SBs and its easier to find blue chip talent at the top of the draft. This draft is unique in that thei has been no free agency movement or trades for teams to help address needs so the draft will be more directed for teams to address needs and teams who are SB contenders will be hard pressed to nail team needs with draft picks.

This is a draft that is deep with front-seven defensive talent but their are only two blue-chip wideouts. The Patriots have a healthy need at in my opinion for a blue-chip talent at WR so their options are limited to doing the same ole-same ole and we both know how that has played out or they can make a move to land one of the blue-chippers.

I think they can get a defender later on but we know their track record of finding WRs later.

Yesterday it was confirmed by Browns President Mike Holmgren that the Browns were speaking with teams about trading down.Today on draft day we get reports that the New England Patriots are in talks with the Browns about trading up to the sixth pick.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/28/patriots-have-spoken-with-browns-about-sixth-pick/

Patriots have spoken with Browns about sixth pick

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on April 28, 2011, 9:52 AM EDT

Mike Holmgren of the Browns has made it clear he wants to deal. At least one team is listening.

We don’t know how serious talks between the Patriots and Browns are, but Greg A. Bedard of the Boston Globe reports New England has talked with Cleveland regarding interest in the No. 6 overall pick. ESPN has also reported that the Patriots want to move.

Bedard figures the Patriots want to move up for UNC pass rusher Robert Quinn, who would convert to outside linebacker in New England. Bedard believes Julio Jones or Patrick Peterson could also be targets.

The Globe reporter thinks that if the Pats move up that they should go for DE/OLB Robert Quinn.http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2011/04/28/patriots_should_go_rushing_after_quinn/?page=2

... ESPN reported that the Patriots have shown an interest in moving up. A league source said the Patriots have spoken to the Browns about the sixth pick and Quinn would be the likely target, although receiver Julio Jones and cornerback Patrick Peterson cannot be discounted.

The Patriots could package the 17th and 28th picks to move up. Or the 17th, 60th (second round), 74th (third), and perhaps a late pick.

They still would have the flexibility and ammunition to add many parts later in the draft, or spin some of the picks for selections in 2012. They still would be in a position of strength.

Belichick and director of player personnel Nick Caserio worked a lot of magic to accumulate six of the draft’s first 92 picks. They’ve built to this point, and they should cash in by filling the biggest hole on a very good team that could be on the verge of being great.

The windwo of opportunity is open for as long as Tom Brady is healthy so although the Pats fans love the idea of constantly acquiring draft picks they should realize that the biggest bang for their buck would be to wisely cash in draft choices when you are soo close to yet another Super Bowl victory and may only be one or two players away.A trade up to land one of the blue chippers makes sense and I think the target is Julio Jones.