Guppy Warning
First of all, not all of the owners in this league are guppies. But there are enough to make the draft look very strange when compared to ADP. This is my second year in the league. It has two conferences of 12 teams each with inter-conference double headers in six of the weeks. The two conference winners meet in week 16 for the championship.
Starting Requirements
1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT and 1 Flex (RB or WR)
Scoring
1 pt per 20 yards passing, 6 pts for all TDs.
1 pt per 10 yards rushing/receiving.
1 pt per reception.
Defenses get points for points allowed as well as 1 pt per 20 yards on interception, fumble and kick returns.
Last year, I started with D Davis, Tiki Barber and LaMont Jordan as my first three picks. I noticed the incredible value remaining at RB later in the draft. Manning and Culpepper went in the first round and other QBs followed regularly. So this year I planned to grab at least one elite receiver as trading was very difficult last year.
I drew pick 11 of 12. I was hoping for a top three pick so that I could get a stud RB and two top ten receivers, or one receiver and Gates at the turn.
Portis fell to me and was tempting, but the top receivers scored 40 points more than him last year. With the injury and the expectation that RBs would fall, I held off. Jordan and Westbrook were also on the board, but I did something that surprised even me:
1.01 1 Cowboys Like it Hot! Alexander, Shaun SEA RB
1.02 2 "DA WINNAHZ" Johnson, Larry KCC RB
1.03 3 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
1.04 4 DC Lagers Barber, Tiki NYG RB
1.05 5 EJ's Bulldogs Williams, Carnell TBB RB
1.06 6 JCIE Smith, Steve CAR WR
1.07 7 Bucshot Johnson, Rudi CIN RB
1.08 8 PATZFAN James, Edgerrin ARI RB
1.09 9 Texas Pride Manning, Peyton IND QB
1.10 10 Auslanders Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.11 11 Wave of Mutilation Holt, Torry STL
1.12 12 The Dawgs Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
Manning would have been mine had he fallen two more spots, but I decided to go with Holt. Linehan has improved the Vikings' and Dolphins' offenses in recent years and I don't expect much of a drop off from the Martz years. Holt averaged slightly under 20 ppg last year and would have been up there with Larry Johnson and Tiki Barber if he had performed at that level for 16 games.
2.01 13 The Dawgs Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
2.02 14 Wave of Mutilation Johnson, Chad CIN WR
2.03 15 Auslanders Jordan, Lamont OAK RB
2.04 16 Texas Pride Dunn, Warrick ATL RB
2.05 17 PATZFAN Jones, Thomas CHI RB
2.06 18 Bucshot Harrison, Marvin IND WR
2.07 19 JCIE Portis, Clinton WAS RB
2.08 20 EJ's Bulldogs Bush, Reggie NOS RB
2.09 21 DC Lagers McGahee, Willis BUF RB
2.10 22 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Davis, Domanick HOU RB
2.11 23 "DA WINNAHZ" Boldin, Anquan ARI WR
2.12 24 Cowboys Like it Hot! Owens, Terrell DAL WR
In the second round I achieved a first. I had never started any draft WR/WR before this one. I liked what I saw of Palmer on Monday night and Johnson is another receiver that should be heavily targeted. He scored 40 points more than Portis and Rudi Johnson last year so I gambled and crossed my fingers that last year's RB trend would repeat.
3.01 25 Cowboys Like it Hot! Gates, Antonio SDC TE
3.02 26 "DA WINNAHZ" Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB
3.03 27 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Droughns, Reuben CLE RB
3.04 28 DC Lagers Moss, Randy OAK WR
3.05 29 EJ's Bulldogs Chambers, Chris MIA WR
3.06 30 JCIE Moss, Santana WAS WR
3.07 31 Bucshot Driver, Donald GBP WR
3.08 32 PATZFAN Jackson, Darrell SEA WR
3.09 33 Texas Pride Jones, Julius DAL RB
3.10 34 Auslanders Parker, Willie PIT RB
3.11 35 Wave of Mutilation Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
3.12 36 The Dawgs Wayne, Reggie IND WR
After a long wait, I finally had my third round pick. Only two QBs were off the board which was a big change from last year. But exactly as I hoped, Westbrook fell to me at 3.11. If I had chosen my usual RB heavy start, he would have been one of my first two picks in a ppr format. So I was thrilled to get a potential top 10 back at the end of the third.
4.01 37 The Dawgs Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE
4.02 38 Wave of Mutilation Jones, Kevin DET RB
4.03 39 Auslanders Burress, Plaxico NYG WR
4.04 40 Texas Pride Ward, Hines PIT WR
4.05 41 PATZFAN Williams, Roy DET WR
4.06 42 Bucshot McNabb, Donovan PHI QB
4.07 43 JCIE Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE
4.08 44 EJ's Bulldogs Brady, Tom NEP QB
4.09 45 DC Lagers Walker, Javon DEN WR
4.10 46 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Horn, Joe NOS WR
4.11 47 "DA WINNAHZ" Heap, Todd BAL TE
4.12 48 Cowboys Like it Hot! Mason, Derrick BAL WR
I decided to grab Kevin Jones over Heap, Gonzalez or a third receiver. I don't like gambling on unproven players but I felt that the risk was worth it. If I were to have two reasonable RBs, it was now or never. I don't feel that I missed much by taking the two stud receivers in the first two rounds. Jordan/Westbrook vs. K Jones/Westbrook.
5.01 49 Cowboys Like it Hot! Taylor, Chester MIN RB
5.02 50 "DA WINNAHZ" Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR
5.03 51 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Smith, Rod DEN WR
5.04 52 DC Lagers Palmer, Carson CIN QB
5.05 53 EJ's Bulldogs Witten, Jason DAL TE
5.06 54 JCIE Rhodes, Dominic IND RB
5.07 55 Bucshot Bryant, Antonio SFO WR
5.08 56 PATZFAN Bell, Mike DEN RB
5.09 57 Texas Pride Johnson, Andre HOU WR
5.10 58 Auslanders Delhomme, Jake CAR QB
5.11 59 Wave of Mutilation Evans, Lee BUF WR
5.12 60 The Dawgs Manning, Eli NYG QB
I watched in dismay as the other elite TEs were taken. Gonzalez fell to 6.6 in the other 12 team draft. I looked at Crumpler but figured that his receptions were too low for this format, and with the outstanding TE depth available I chose to go in another direction. I watch all of the Bills' games and as a homer I think Losman and Evans are going to vastly outperform all expectations. Evans is a TD threat every time he touches the ball, and the 2006 version of Losman is not the jittery Yoda fan that I watched last year. In this draft, maybe Evans would have fallen. But I wanted him on my team and think that he has a shot at the top ten this year. The reception numbers might be low though.
6.01 61 The Dawgs Burleson, Nate SEA WR
6.02 62 Wave of Mutilation Lewis, Jamal BAL RB
6.03 63 Auslanders Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
6.04 64 Texas Pride Glenn, Terry DAL WR
6.05 65 PATZFAN Bulger, Marc STL QB Sat
6.06 66 Bucshot Bears, Chicago CHI Def
6.07 67 JCIE Green, Trent KCC QB
6.08 68 EJ's Bulldogs Galloway, Joey TBB WR
6.09 69 DC Lagers Vick, Michael ATL QB
6.10 70 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Crumpler, Alge ATL TE
6.11 71 "DA WINNAHZ" Foster, De'shaun CAR RB
6.12 72 Cowboys Like it Hot! Gore, Frank SFO RB
I know it's a ppr league, but Jamal Lewis should not fall to the 6th round. I made sure he didn't fall to the 7th and again passed on good TEs.
7.01 73 Cowboys Like it Hot! Johnson, Keyshawn CAR WR
7.02 74 "DA WINNAHZ" Taylor, Fred JAC RB
7.03 75 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Martin, Curtis NYJ RB
7.04 76 DC Lagers McMichael, Randy MIA TE
7.05 77 EJ's Bulldogs Kennison, Eddie KCC WR
7.06 78 JCIE Addai, Joseph IND RB
7.07 79 Bucshot Watson, Ben NEP TE
7.08 80 PATZFAN Davis, Vernon SFO TE
7.09 81 Texas Pride Smith, L.J. PHI TE
7.10 82 Auslanders Cooley, Chris WAS TE
7.11 83 Wave of Mutilation Culpepper, Daunte MIA QB
7.12 84 The Dawgs Warner, Kurt ARI QB
McMichael was my target in the seventh as I think Culpepper will elevate him to a new level. The guy has essentially been playing with backup QBs his entire career. But again I missed out on my TE. After seeing the way Culpepper moved around on Thursday, I moved him a few spots up my board. I think he was excellent value as the 12th QB taken. I expect three or four rushing TDs and I like Chambers/Booker as targets, along with McMichael.
8.01 85 The Dawgs Miller, Heath PIT TE
8.02 86 Wave of Mutilation Plummer, Jake DEN QB
8.03 87 Auslanders Jones, Matt JAC WR
8.04 88 Texas Pride Dillon, Corey NEP RB
8.05 89 PATZFAN Jackson, Chad NEP WR
8.06 90 Bucshot White, LenDale TEN RB
8.07 91 JCIE Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR
8.08 92 EJ's Bulldogs Stallworth, Donte' PHI WR
8.09 93 DC Lagers Panthers, Carolina CAR Def
8.10 94 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Robinson, Koren FA WR
8.11 95 "DA WINNAHZ" Brown, Reggie PHI WR
8.12 96 Cowboys Like it Hot! Bledsoe, Drew DAL QB
Ok, I like Culpepper. but I am not stupid and I know that his knee makes him a risky pick. I added Plummer immediately because he is very high on my board. He didn't have to do much in the second half of most games last year as Denver won most of their games easily. With the doubts over their running game this year, and the addition of Walker, I think they will pass more. Looking at the opponents they face, I don't expect them to canter to victory in so many games. Plummer will throw more, and the passing game will increase production. I was hoping to start a QB2 run with this pick.
9.01 97 Cowboys Like it Hot! McNair, Steve BAL QB
9.02 98 "DA WINNAHZ" Barber, Marion DAL RB
9.03 99 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Branch, Deion NEP WR
9.05 101 EJ's Bulldogs Clark, Dallas IND TE
9.06 102 JCIE Favre, Brett GBP QB
9.07 103 Bucshot McAllister, Deuce NOS RB
9.08 104 PATZFAN Leftwich, Byron JAC QB
9.09 105 Texas Pride Barlow, Kevan NYJ RB
9.10 106 Auslanders Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
9.11 107 Wave of Mutilation Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
9.12 108 The Dawgs Green, Ahman GBP RB
With defenses being worth a lot in this league, I had already decided to try and get a good one. But I figured that the Ravens and/or Redskins would fall to the latter part of the draft. But when the Steelers were there at 9.11, I altered my tactics and grabbed them.
10.01 109 The Dawgs Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
10.02 110 Wave of Mutilation Winslow, Kellen CLE TE
10.03 111 Auslanders Simms, Chris TBB QB
10.04 112 Texas Pride Givens, David TEN WR
10.05 113 PATZFAN Jurevicius, Joe CLE WR
10.06 114 Bucshot Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR
10.07 115 JCIE Bruce, Isaac STL WR
10.08 116 EJ's Bulldogs Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def
10.09 117 DC Lagers Vinatieri, Adam IND PK
10.10 118 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Kitna, Jon DET QB
10.11 119 "DA WINNAHZ" Williamson, Troy MIN WR
10.12 120 Cowboys Like it Hot! Clayton, Michael TBB WR
When Heath Miller went, my late TE target was blown. Some owners were even taking a second TE. That totally threw me. I was relieved to get Winslow as Wiggins was the player immediately below him on my list had I missed out. I was not happy with this, but there is at least the possibility that he will be somewhat productive. I plan to address this position through a trade early in the season when the opportunity presents itself.
11.01 121 Cowboys Like it Hot! Feely, Jay NYG PK
11.02 122 "DA WINNAHZ" Elam, Jason DEN PK
11.03 123 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Brooks, Aaron OAK QB
11.04 124 DC Lagers Clayton, Mark BAL WR
11.05 125 EJ's Bulldogs Brees, Drew NOS QB
11.06 126 JCIE Giants, New York NYG Def
11.07 127 Bucshot Rivers, Philip SDC QB
11.08 128 PATZFAN Rackers, Neil ARI PK
11.09 129 Texas Pride Colts, Indianapolis IND Def
11.10 130 Auslanders Edwards, Braylon CLE WR
11.11 131 Wave of Mutilation Benson, Cedric CHI RB
11.12 132 The Dawgs Toomer, Amani NYG WR
Hmmmm, Benson in the 11th. A chance at the starter or eventual starter on a run-first team. Not quite Larry Johnson, but definitely some potential there. I decided he would be excellent trade bait if the Bears made him the starter.
12.01 133 The Dawgs Bennett, Drew TEN WR
12.02 134 Wave of Mutilation Bell, Tatum DEN RB
12.03 135 Auslanders Brown, Chris TEN RB
12.04 136 Texas Pride Carr, David HOU QB
12.05 137 PATZFAN Lloyd, Brandon WAS WR
12.06 138 Bucshot Jones, Greg JAC RB
12.07 139 JCIE Porter, Jerry OAK WR
12.08 140 EJ's Bulldogs Randle El, Antwaan WAS WR
12.09 141 DC Lagers Duckett, T.J. WAS RB
12.10 142 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def
12.11 143 "DA WINNAHZ" Brunell, Mark WAS QB
12.12 144 Cowboys Like it Hot! Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def
How did Tatum Bell fall that far? I picked him up in case there are two or three games where he is the sole back due to injuries elsewhere. He could be top five in those weeks. I'll take that in the 12th round. If he does somehow win the job, then I could really get some value. I do expect him to be a situational player though.
13.01 145 Cowboys Like it Hot! Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
13.02 146 "DA WINNAHZ" Dolphins, Miami MIA Def
13.03 147 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Stover, Matt BAL PK
13.04 148 DC Lagers Curtis, Kevin STL WR
13.05 149 EJ's Bulldogs Brown, Josh SEA PK
13.06 150 JCIE Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def
13.07 151 Bucshot Wilford, Ernest JAC WR
13.08 152 PATZFAN Broncos, Denver DEN Def
13.09 153 Texas Pride Jenkins, Michael ATL WR
13.10 154 Auslanders Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def
13.11 155 Wave of Mutilation McCardell, Keenan SDC WR
13.12 156 The Dawgs Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK
I was desperately trying to risk the urge to add the Ravens defense, and they were finally taken. We only have 14 man rosters. I decided that McCardell had fallen three or four rounds too far, so I took my fourth WR after narrowly missing out on Coles earlier.
14.01 157 The Dawgs Gado, Samkon GBP RB
14.02 158 Wave of Mutilation Graham, Shayne CIN PK
14.03 159 Auslanders Kasay, John CAR PK
14.04 160 Texas Pride Wilkins, Jeff STL PK
14.05 161 PATZFAN Davenport, Najeh GB RB
14.06 162 Bucshot Akers, David PHI PK
14.07 163 JCIE Reed, Jeff PIT PK
14.08 164 EJ's Bulldogs Patriots, New England NEP Def
14.09 165 DC Lagers Stevens, Jerramy SEA TE
14.10 166 GIEZEL'Z DIEZEL'Z Troupe, Ben TEN TE
14.11 167 "DA WINNAHZ" Redskins, Washington WAS Def
14.12 168 Cowboys Like it Hot! Vanderjagt, Mike DAL PK
With waiver wire moves frozen until after the week one games, I had to take my kicker in the last round. I almost went with Kasay due to his accuracy and range, the likely success of the offense, and his week 9 bye. But Graham was too good to ignore and I again changed my mind.
Hopefully you can see from that how conventional tactics and expectations aren't worth much when drafting with
Final Team (with byes)
QB Culpepper (8), Plummer (4)
RB Westbrook (9), K Jones (8), J Lewis (7), C Benson (7), T Bell (4)
WR Holt (7), C Johnson (5), Evans (8), McCardell (3)
TE Winslow (6)
PK Graham (5)
DEF Steelers (4)
Difficult...was it not? 
EDIT: My major screw-up was missing out on Gates. I was certain that I could have taken L. Fitz first and then get Gates on the next pick, but the Cinnci homer surprised me and took Gates one pick before I planned on taking him. I gambled and lost...that IS worth a 
Droughns and Dunn in the first?? I was hoping one of them would fall to me in the 4th (slight chance going by mocks and ADP). My ADP list goes out the window at this point.
This prevents me from taking M.Jones and other WR's with week 6 byes later in the draft. I am still satisfied with Driver though.
