Could Thomas Jones lose the starting job? (1 Viewer)

[Muahahaha]

I'm a big believer in the theory that Favre will improve the offense by increasing the threat of the deep pass. I've looked at some QB changes in the past that caused an increase in YPA and there appears to be a definite correlation to an increase in YPC.

Look at these case studies:

Elway ==> Griese

7.6 ypa ==> 6.7 ypa

4.7 ypc ==> 4.0 ypc

Bledsoe ==> Romo

7.3 ypa ==> 8.7 ypa (!)

3.6 ypc ==> 4.1 ypc

Peete ==> Delhomme

5.6 ypa ==> 7.2 ypa

3.5 ypc ==> 4.0 ypc

Culpepper ==> Johnson

7.1 ypa ==> 6.4 ypa

4.7 ypc ==> 3.9 ypc

I could keep going probably all day. This is largely why I am high on Gore & down on any RB with a rookie QB. Grant is unclear because we really don't know if Rodgers will wing it downfield successfully.

For these reasons, I am high on the Jets running game. Favre should transform that offense. The only question I have is whether Thomas Jones will represent that running game or Leon Washington will. I have heard lots of comments about Thomas Jones having lost a step. So, anybody have a strong opinion on this?

 

[Modog814]

My thoughts are:

1) Thomas Jones is the starter and will most likely remain the starter unless of injury or absolutely dreadful play.

2) Leon Washington is actually the more explosive back and maybe better all-around back.

3) I agree that the Jet's running game will be much improved (I believe Favre is a secondary factor and more imporantly was the moves made to bring in Faneca and Richardson).

Ultimately I believe T. Jones will be the main back for the Jet's barring injury. Washington will get some carries and catches but for reasons you've already stated (opening up the field via downfield passing) and the improvement in OL and FB, Jones won't play poorly enough to warrant a switch to Washington carrying the load.

Just my opinion.

 

[go jints]

I predict:

260 carries for T. Jones

102 carries for L. Washington

which is close to a 70/30 split of the carries.

From what I have seen I seem to be predicting more carries for Washington and less for T. Jones than the norm.

I think L. Washington will never be a fulltime back but he is a very nice change of pace back and he did average about a yard and a half more per carry than Washington did last year. I look for a bigger workload than last year but he will not "take over" for T. Jones.

 

[Muahahaha]

Yes, I have heard this sentiment several times that Leon Washington will never be a full time back. Why exactly is that?

I have TJones in a couple of leagues and am concerned about whether I should get Washington.

 

[zamboni]

I think Leon could handle more of a load than what Mangini gives him, but Leon does his best work in spots and on special teams. I don't think Mangini really wants to wear him out and use him more - he makes a nice 1-2 punch with Jones.

 

[Muahahaha]

I think Leon could handle more of a load than what Mangini gives him, but Leon does his best work in spots and on special teams. I don't think Mangini really wants to wear him out and use him more - he makes a nice 1-2 punch with Jones.

Thanks, Zamboni. I actually live right by the Jets training facility, but most people here are Giants fans. The few people that admit to being Jets fans all pretty much have the same sentiment that Leon is best used as a change of pace/breather fill-in for Jones.For the moment, I'm not going to worry about Washington.

 

[valhallan]

I would agree that Washington probably isn't a threat to take the job from a healthy Jones, but if TJ goes down and Leon gets a shot, he could end up being very good based on the ability we've already seen. His style is similar to other guys that took a few years to become starters (Tiki, Westy).

 

[plapla]

I'm a big believer in the theory that Favre will improve the offense by increasing the threat of the deep pass. I've looked at some QB changes in the past that caused an increase in YPA and there appears to be a definite correlation to an increase in YPC.Look at these case studies:Elway ==> Griese7.6 ypa ==> 6.7 ypa4.7 ypc ==> 4.0 ypcBledsoe ==> Romo7.3 ypa ==> 8.7 ypa (!)3.6 ypc ==> 4.1 ypcPeete ==> Delhomme5.6 ypa ==> 7.2 ypa3.5 ypc ==> 4.0 ypcCulpepper ==> Johnson7.1 ypa ==> 6.4 ypa4.7 ypc ==> 3.9 ypc

I hope you didn't do a lot of work to come to the conclusion that teams with a better QB had a better overall offense.That being said I think Washington represents value in this years draft as there are more interesting 4th round options than T. jones.

 

[Muahahaha]

I'm a big believer in the theory that Favre will improve the offense by increasing the threat of the deep pass. I've looked at some QB changes in the past that caused an increase in YPA and there appears to be a definite correlation to an increase in YPC.Look at these case studies:Elway ==> Griese7.6 ypa ==> 6.7 ypa4.7 ypc ==> 4.0 ypcBledsoe ==> Romo7.3 ypa ==> 8.7 ypa (!)3.6 ypc ==> 4.1 ypcPeete ==> Delhomme5.6 ypa ==> 7.2 ypa3.5 ypc ==> 4.0 ypcCulpepper ==> Johnson7.1 ypa ==> 6.4 ypa4.7 ypc ==> 3.9 ypc

I hope you didn't do a lot of work to come to the conclusion that teams with a better QB had a better overall offense.That being said I think Washington represents value in this years draft as there are more interesting 4th round options than T. jones.

Actually, most of this work was to investigate the theory that in most cases, unless the back is truly special, ypc is a function of the offense the back is performing in. For instance, when Thomas Jones moved to New York, the ypc of the team remained unch'd. Same thing happened when Edge moved to Arizona. These backs are not bigger than the system/offense. It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense. The running YPC went down because Vick left. Turner will not solve this issue.Barry Sanders and LT would probably perform on any offense. But this probably isn't true of most backs.The above numbers are big and give credence to the theory that it is not the back, but the offense that gives rise to ypc. That is what I was studying. Yes, it is common sense, but I constantly hear people discussing various backs' ypc without considering other changes in the offensive system that back is operating in.Jamal Lewis only turned things around because Derek Anderson emerged as a credible QB. The list goes on and on, but people attribute it to other reasons.So, yes, I felt compelled to "go to this work" because I wanted to make sure that I was right given the many confused comments I see on this board regarding ypc.

 

[bucsbaby]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

 

[bcr8f]

Favre loves throwing screens to RB's. I think both will be used there. GetTJ out in the open field and let him do his thing.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Could Thomas Jones lose the starting job?

Absolutely.

He cannot continue to average 3.6 like he did last year and keep the job.

There are reasons to believe he might be able to raise that up this year... but in preseason he looked s-l-o-w.

Not a good sign when you are 30 and someone behind you is very talented.

 

[Tchula]

Leon washington "might" be too small to be an every down back. He isnt barry sanders or emmit smith in terms of ability, but he is close in size to those two guys. He may be able to go full time for a couple games, but I dont see him being an every down back for most of the season. If the Jets thought he could do that, wouldnt he have had that opportunity last year?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Leon washington "might" be too small to be an every down back. He isnt barry sanders or emmit smith in terms of ability, but he is close in size to those two guys. He may be able to go full time for a couple games, but I dont see him being an every down back for most of the season. If the Jets thought he could do that, wouldnt he have had that opportunity last year?

Dont hate on MJDrew and Willie Parker, Ray Rice and a host of others.5'8" 205lbs with a solid base is plenty big enough. *I know you weren't "hate'n" on him. Its just a term.

 

[General Malaise]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

Why is Turner 'not special'? Is he less special than Frank Gore, Willis McGahee or Justin Fargas? Guys who were on "crap offenses" but crossed 1,000 yards in rushing?

 

[Muahahaha]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

Why is Turner 'not special'? Is he less special than Frank Gore, Willis McGahee or Justin Fargas? Guys who were on "crap offenses" but crossed 1,000 yards in rushing?

Special in my mind is somebody who can rise above his supporting cast. Gore has proven that by finishing in the top ten mutliple times on the worst offense in football.If Turner performs with the worst offensive line in football, a rookie QB, and very little talent at the other skill positions, then will be "special". Until then, he is just another running back. The majority of the data indicates he will sink to the level of the team.

 

[David Yudkin]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

Why is Turner 'not special'? Is he less special than Frank Gore, Willis McGahee or Justin Fargas? Guys who were on "crap offenses" but crossed 1,000 yards in rushing?

Special in my mind is somebody who can rise above his supporting cast. Gore has proven that by finishing in the top ten mutliple times on the worst offense in football.If Turner performs with the worst offensive line in football, a rookie QB, and very little talent at the other skill positions, then will be "special". Until then, he is just another running back. The majority of the data indicates he will sink to the level of the team.

Is Norwood special? Cause he's played on the same Falcons offense and now carries a lifetime 6.2 ypc average in over 200 carries.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I can't tell you why the Jets brass will do what they do, but my opinion is that the MVP of the Jets last year, Leon Washington, is the better all around back. There is no reason why he can't be as durable as Westbrook or Tiki etc...Thomas Jones is one of the weaker starters in the league and you can find 10 posts of mine over the past year that say this.

 

[Liquid Tension]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

If you think Turner is not special then you need a sliding scale because he is much better than Thomas Jones. In other words, you have special, average and weak starters...Thomas Jones is a weak starter, Turner is average at worst IMO (of course you could make more categories, but stay with the concept).If this is true, then a weak starter should hurt the YPC.This is all being said, everything changes year over year. The line changes the FB and the QB as well as receivers and all those factors along with the RB make the difference. it is extremely rare that nothing changes but one player. For example, you guys are saying the running game should be better because of Favre, but I think the running game will be better because they added Faneca to a spot on the line that was one of the league worst spots. The Jets have also added a tough run blocking FB.So the jet running game will be much improved, but the RB's have not changed. IMO, getting more carries for Leon would be a prudent move.

 

[Muahahaha]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

If you think Turner is not special then you need a sliding scale because he is much better than Thomas Jones. In other words, you have special, average and weak starters...Thomas Jones is a weak starter, Turner is average at worst IMO (of course you could make more categories, but stay with the concept).If this is true, then a weak starter should hurt the YPC.

This is all being said, everything changes year over year. The line changes the FB and the QB as well as receivers and all those factors along with the RB make the difference. it is extremely rare that nothing changes but one player. For example, you guys are saying the running game should be better because of Favre, but I think the running game will be better because they added Faneca to a spot on the line that was one of the league worst spots. The Jets have also added a tough run blocking FB.

So the jet running game will be much improved, but the RB's have not changed. IMO, getting more carries for Leon would be a prudent move.

If you haven't read this already, I would suggest reading this for an interesting review of Turner's move to Atlanta: http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/09/outsi...ichard-huntley/But, to answer your question, we don't know if Thomas Jones is a weak starter. IMHO, he has never had the supporting to prove/disprove this. I think this year we will find out. But in Chicago, he performed in line or better than the other RBs, Peterson and Benson. They are all we can really compare him to.

As for Turner vs. Jones, it's very difficult to compare a spot starter/backup RB on one of the top offenses in the NFL to an everyday starter on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The fact is, the Jets had a 3.5 ypc before he got there and a 3.6 ypc after. Really don't know if it was the line, the QB, or the RB. If he blows, this year, we should know the answer.

YPC is somewhat flawed because we don't know if those carries are in the 4th quarter with a big lead, 3 and 12, etc. I suspect that Turner got his carries in very favorable situations.

 

[moleculo]

I'm a big believer in the theory that Favre will improve the offense by increasing the threat of the deep pass. I've looked at some QB changes in the past that caused an increase in YPA and there appears to be a definite correlation to an increase in YPC.Look at these case studies:Elway ==> Griese7.6 ypa ==> 6.7 ypa4.7 ypc ==> 4.0 ypcBledsoe ==> Romo7.3 ypa ==> 8.7 ypa (!)3.6 ypc ==> 4.1 ypcPeete ==> Delhomme5.6 ypa ==> 7.2 ypa3.5 ypc ==> 4.0 ypcCulpepper ==> Johnson7.1 ypa ==> 6.4 ypa4.7 ypc ==> 3.9 ypc

I hope you didn't do a lot of work to come to the conclusion that teams with a better QB had a better overall offense.That being said I think Washington represents value in this years draft as there are more interesting 4th round options than T. jones.

Actually, most of this work was to investigate the theory that in most cases, unless the back is truly special, ypc is a function of the offense the back is performing in. For instance, when Thomas Jones moved to New York, the ypc of the team remained unch'd. Same thing happened when Edge moved to Arizona. These backs are not bigger than the system/offense. It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense. The running YPC went down because Vick left. Turner will not solve this issue.Barry Sanders and LT would probably perform on any offense. But this probably isn't true of most backs.The above numbers are big and give credence to the theory that it is not the back, but the offense that gives rise to ypc. That is what I was studying. Yes, it is common sense, but I constantly hear people discussing various backs' ypc without considering other changes in the offensive system that back is operating in.Jamal Lewis only turned things around because Derek Anderson emerged as a credible QB. The list goes on and on, but people attribute it to other reasons.So, yes, I felt compelled to "go to this work" because I wanted to make sure that I was right given the many confused comments I see on this board regarding ypc.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I suspect that Turner got his carries in very favorable situations.

People of this board have shown this was not the case. And as Yudkin asked, is Norwood special?

 

[TLEF316]

Leon was BADLY underutilized last year. Whenever someone would tell me that the Jets had "No playmakers" i knew that they flat out just didn't know football. Washington is short, but he isn't overly small. He's quick and has good burst. He'll never be a stud between the tackles, but i see no reason why he cant provide Westbrook-lite production.

 

[Muahahaha]

I suspect that Turner got his carries in very favorable situations.

People of this board have shown this was not the case. And as Yudkin asked, is Norwood special?

First of all, I honestly do think Norwood is special. He has outperformed every other back at Atlanta. His Football Outsider's DVOA has been far better than Dunn's the last few years. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Turner are splitting carries by the end of the year.On to the rest of the question.Six questions will illustrate what I am trying to say:1. If Turner and Addai switched teams and starting gigs, would Turner instantly become a 1st round RB?2. And then would Addai slip out of the 1st round?3. Will Turner's YPC in Atlanta as a starter go down or up from his career 5.5 ypc as a backup?4. If Addai moved to becoming LT's backup, would his YPC go down or up from 4.4 ypc?5. What if Darren McFadden became a Colt, would his ADP go up or down?6. What if Edge went back to the Colts; would his ADP go up?Hopefully you get my point. Running back performance has to be evaluated in the context of role and offense. A running back that comes in on 3rd and 12 in the 3rd quarter for his first carry in the game and gets 8 yards in a draw play is not necessarily a good running back. Similarly, a RB with a crap QB and crap line could be a much better RB than the Minnesota or Indy starting RB. It is hard to compare the two.In essence, what I am trying to say is that when we draft Addai, we are 80% drafting Indy starting RB and 20% drafting Joe Addai. Same thing with Turner. LT is probably more like 70% LT vs. 30% SD starting RB.We all implicitly make this distinction.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

1. If Turner and Addai switched teams and starting gigs, would Turner instantly become a 1st round RB?

Yep, #3-5.

 

[Hash Mark]

This turned out to be quite a topic of discussion. Ultimately, I have to agree that RB's on better teams make better fantasy RB's...it is that simple. Remember Priest Holmes? His career didn't amount to much until he came to a team with the best O-line, one of the top FB's in the game, a good QB and TE. (Not saying T. Jones is Priest Holmes!)

I think that we can all agree that the Jets have improved on offense. This bodes well for the starting RB for the Jets.

The question is "Could T. Jones lose the starting job?"

I think the answer is Yes, he could, but so could any RB in the league at any time. I do not feel that Leon Washinton is a greater threat than most of the other back-up RB's in the league. I would draft T. Jones with confidence and grab L. Washington as a handcuff if you are into that. Just as any #2 RB in the league - L. Washington is worth a late round pick (or $1 in an auction) for his potential to produce if T. Jones doesn't get the job done, or is injured, etc...

 

[Liquid Tension]

It is one of the reasons why I think Turner will be a bust in Atlanta because he is not special and it is a crap offense.

If you think Turner is not special then you need a sliding scale because he is much better than Thomas Jones. In other words, you have special, average and weak starters...Thomas Jones is a weak starter, Turner is average at worst IMO (of course you could make more categories, but stay with the concept).If this is true, then a weak starter should hurt the YPC.

This is all being said, everything changes year over year. The line changes the FB and the QB as well as receivers and all those factors along with the RB make the difference. it is extremely rare that nothing changes but one player. For example, you guys are saying the running game should be better because of Favre, but I think the running game will be better because they added Faneca to a spot on the line that was one of the league worst spots. The Jets have also added a tough run blocking FB.

So the jet running game will be much improved, but the RB's have not changed. IMO, getting more carries for Leon would be a prudent move.

If you haven't read this already, I would suggest reading this for an interesting review of Turner's move to Atlanta: http://www.patriotsdaily.com/2007/09/outsi...ichard-huntley/But, to answer your question, we don't know if Thomas Jones is a weak starter. IMHO, he has never had the supporting to prove/disprove this. I think this year we will find out. But in Chicago, he performed in line or better than the other RBs, Peterson and Benson. They are all we can really compare him to.

As for Turner vs. Jones, it's very difficult to compare a spot starter/backup RB on one of the top offenses in the NFL to an everyday starter on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The fact is, the Jets had a 3.5 ypc before he got there and a 3.6 ypc after. Really don't know if it was the line, the QB, or the RB. If he blows, this year, we should know the answer.

YPC is somewhat flawed because we don't know if those carries are in the 4th quarter with a big lead, 3 and 12, etc. I suspect that Turner got his carries in very favorable situations.

Thomas Jones has a long history of mediocrity, but you also have to use your eyes to see whether a RB has special qualities. Thomas Jones best quality is that he is a grinder. I would also say that while he doesn't do anything well, he does do everything (block, catch, etc...) I agree that YPC is not the only indicator because if the RB is getting all the short yardage carries his YPC would look worse than "Norwood." That being said, Turner was used at different times and he excelled all the time. He is simply a more talented RB than Thomas Jones and I think on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is the worst STARTER, Thomas Jones is in the 2-3 range and Turner is in the 6-8 range (we will know more this year)

 

[-baller]

leon washington = jerious norwood

 

[Liquid Tension]

I suspect that Turner got his carries in very favorable situations.

People of this board have shown this was not the case. And as Yudkin asked, is Norwood special?

First of all, I honestly do think Norwood is special. He has outperformed every other back at Atlanta. His Football Outsider's DVOA has been far better than Dunn's the last few years. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Turner are splitting carries by the end of the year.On to the rest of the question.Six questions will illustrate what I am trying to say:1. If Turner and Addai switched teams and starting gigs, would Turner instantly become a 1st round RB?2. And then would Addai slip out of the 1st round?3. Will Turner's YPC in Atlanta as a starter go down or up from his career 5.5 ypc as a backup?4. If Addai moved to becoming LT's backup, would his YPC go down or up from 4.4 ypc?5. What if Darren McFadden became a Colt, would his ADP go up or down?6. What if Edge went back to the Colts; would his ADP go up?Hopefully you get my point. Running back performance has to be evaluated in the context of role and offense. A running back that comes in on 3rd and 12 in the 3rd quarter for his first carry in the game and gets 8 yards in a draw play is not necessarily a good running back. Similarly, a RB with a crap QB and crap line could be a much better RB than the Minnesota or Indy starting RB. It is hard to compare the two.In essence, what I am trying to say is that when we draft Addai, we are 80% drafting Indy starting RB and 20% drafting Joe Addai. Same thing with Turner. LT is probably more like 70% LT vs. 30% SD starting RB.We all implicitly make this distinction.

Agree with the concept...although I would say that in dynasty you draft more toward the RB than the team as you expect talent to eventually surface.

 

[Todem]

In Dynasty leagues I would be selling TJ now while you can get some decent value for him return. He is a grinder as Liquid Tension noted and I have always liked his game since he went to the Bears. He is nothing special though. With the hype about Favre coming in (and yes I think Jones will have a good RB2 season in 2008) I would be selling him now if you can to someone who needs a RB2 badly but has depth at WR.

As far as Leon taking his job? Unless TJ totally flops...I never can see this happening. Leon is a very good COP back. That is his role on this team. He can run between the tackles but not 15 times a game for 16 weeks.

On another note I am getting really tired of the Norwood comparisons with all lightly built backs. Norwood is not a gifted RB at the NFL level. He is a pure COP 3rd down back at best who could not run between the tackles if his life depended on it. Norwood being mentioned with guys like Washington ( who has shown much more IMO as a pure runner)Lorenzo Booker (who is strong as hell), Chris Johnson, etc etc. jeez already with the Norwood comparisons. Guy's like Tatum Bell, Trung Canidate...those are guys who had careers like Norwood will have.

 

[flufhed]

leon washington = jerious norwood

You mean in terms of overall production?Because the two couldn't have body types that are more different.