This is a list of the 16 guys I like the most above their ADPs. ADP is taken from an average of Yahoo, Fantasy Pros, and MFL. This list is also in order of how much I like them above their ADP, not necessarily how I rank them in relation to one another. With that in mind:
1. Chris Godwin currently going WR47 110th overall.
This is simply too late for Godwin even with the chances that he is PUP to start the season. He's simply too huge of a difference maker. Godwin was WR7 on a PPG basis last season, and now Brown and Gronk are gone. Tampa Bay isn't likely to change their offense, as despite Arians leaving, I think we can safely surmise that Tom Brady is calling the shots and has been since his arrival.
Over his 2 seasons with Tom Brady, he's been on a 17 game pace of: 107-1275-9.
I think Godwin will likely be a league winner at this price as he could be putting up top-10 numbers the last 6-8 weeks of the season, after likely (but not certainly) being eased in a bit.
2. Travis Etienne RB25 62nd
He'll be over a full year removed from injury by week 1, and has no real competition for carries, unless James Robinson is somehow the greatest healer in the NFL. Etienne will likely be the centerpiece of an improved offense (how could it not be with Urban gone?) and is a rare 3-down RB, who also has big play ability, he had 16 TDs at Clemson of over 45 yards.
Truthfully, I don't really understand the huge gap between him and somebody like D'Andre Swift, who seem like they are in very similar situations, and Etienne is arguably a greater talent.
3. Russell Gage WR38 86th
He's getting a huge upgrade in offensive quality and QB quality (sorry Matt Ryan) and should see a huge workload as Godwin eases in, and maintain a good one after his return. I'm very on board with the idea of drafting both Godwin and Gage.
In 10 games without Calvin Ridley last season, Gage was on a 17 game pace of: 97-1148-5
4. Hollywood Brown WR23 54th
Hollywood was in the midst of a breakout season last year before Lamar Jackson went down. He finished WR23 last year, despite basically being used mostly as a quick screen guy once Huntley took over. His Lamar Jackson pace was 111-1403-10, which would have led to a finish above the likes of Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs.
Kyler Murray is both a better passer than Lamar Jackson, and specifically a better deep ball passer. He's made it work throwing deep to the likes of Christian Kirk and the husk of AJ Green. Brown is an upgrade from those guys, and the Cardinals have both a schedule, and a defense that screams weekly shootouts all year.
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB31 85th
This may be my most disagreed with call, judging by what I've read in both the CEH thread and the Ronald Jones thread. Personally, I'm putting a lot of weight into the idea that CEH was never truly healthy after gallbladder surgery last year, and was actually pretty decent under the circumstances. I think the Chiefs agree with that, as in my opinion, they didn't add any serious competition (to that end I was a little surprised they didn't go for someone like Melvin Gordon) only adding Ronald Jones and bringing back McKinnon.
Personally, I think McKinnon is more of an in case of emergency type of back, who can fill in for a short period, but isn't someone you ever want to count on. Other than maybe Chris Carson (who probably isn't even playing) I'm not sure there is a more injury prone RB in the NFL than McKinnon. Jones will likely have a role, but it could be the exact same role he had in Tampa, and that's assuming he stays out of Reid's doghouse, which he wasn't able to do in Tampa under Arians or Koetter.
CEH was more productive than people remember last season. His 17 game pace was 1258(total yards) and 11 TD's at 4.4 per carry, which would have been more than solid from an RB3. Now factor in that Darrell Williams and his 47 catches are gone, and I think many(most?) of those catches go to CEH and there's some real cheap upside here.
6. Treylon Burks WR48 116th
I'll get this out of the way early. I hated this pick by the Titans. I thought Burks was an overrated prospect who probably should have been picked a round later than he was. That said, boy his landing spot is excellent. Robert Woods is coming off an ACL injury and is on the wrong side of 30, and Austin Hooper is JAG.
Burks should see heavy usage from day 1. Now he's nowhere near as good as AJ Brown, hell, he may not be any better than Corey Davis was, but he'll get every opportunity to lead this team in receiving.
7. James Conner RB20 43rd
Conner had 6 games where Chase Edmonds was either out or limited last season. Conner finished as an RB1 in 5 of them. I don't think Darrell Williams or Eno Benjamin are on Chase Edmonds level, nor does anyone in the NFL based on their draft positions and FA contracts. So Conner is likely in for a bigger workload in general than he had a year ago.
The Cardinals are 3rd in the NFL in rushing TDs since Kingsbury took over, and they love to hand it to their RB inside the 3. Both Conner last year, and Drake in 2020 lead the NFL in carries inside the 3. I think 12+ TD's are pretty bankable given reasonable health.
Conner is an underrated player in my eyes, who has always played pretty well when healthy. A hot take perhaps, but I don't think the Steelers upgraded going from Conner to Najee a year ago, though I will concede they got more durable. Alas, durability is about 75% of the reason Conner is going as late as he is in my opinion, as he's missed multiple games in every season he's played.
8. Drake London WR43 99th
London was the first WR drafted this year, and was a dominant player last year at USC. He's also part of a 2 player passing game on a team that will be trailing early and often.
As I said in the Gage blurb, he was on an 1100+ yard 5 TD pace after Ridley went out, and Ridley himself (while clearly not his best self) was on a 105-955-7 pace. Even with a QB downgrade, I think there is room for London to produce alongside Kyle Pitts.
9. DeAndre Hopkins WR44 102nd
This is a twofold bet. First, this is another bet on the Cardinals having an elite offense. Secondly, this a bet that Hopkins injury issues were just a fluke and not a sign of things to come. I'm not too worried as he has been durable in the past and didn't suffer any major injuries, just a serious of smallish ones.
Hopkins wasn't seeing the dominant target share he'd seen in past last season, but he also was never really healthy, first getting hurt in week 2, and basically not practicing at any point after that.
Its not out of question Hopkins instantly assumes the #1 job when he comes back, though it likely will be a 1A/1B situation as he and Brown in theory complement each other perfectly.
10. Saquon Barkley RB13 25th
Man, last year was about the unluckiest year for him. He had 2 back to back 20+ point games, and then he, Jones, and Golladay all get hurt in the same game, with Toney going down the very next week. Barkley's injury in particular was about as fluky as it gets and in my opinion, and doesn't make him any more of an injury risk than I thought he was before.
Joe Judge and Jason Garrett may have been the most incompetent coaching staff in the NFL last year (side note, I've really begun to wonder if the Romo era Cowboys would have been a Super Bowl team with even a league average HC) and the upgrade to Brian Daboll could be the biggest coaching upgrade north of Jacksonville.
In a contract year, I think Barkley gets all the work he can handle, and could potentially lead the NFL in touches. Also, players tend to have a bounce back in year 2 after ACL surgery typically, which Barkley will be in this season. Also, while the Bengals got all the headlines for their OL upgrades, the Giants have significantly upgraded their OL as well, especially if Evan Neal hits the ground running.
Truth be told, recency bias and a perhaps misguided injury prone label, is basically the difference between Barkley and a guy like Najee Harris in my opinion.
11. Tony Pollard RB34 92nd
As somebody who tends to look for trends and comparisons, man, I see a whole lot of similarities between Zeke/Pollard and Gordon/Ekeler a few years ago. In both cases, the smaller better pass catching back got a little pigeonholed into being a COP player, because the team had such a big investment in the other guy, and much like Ekeler, I believe Pollard will prove to be the better player as soon as the team gives him the chance.
I think Pollard is very capable of making this draft cost profitable even if his role doesn't change. Dallas has the league's easiest schedule, and Pollard was RB30 last year, despite missing some games. He'll likely be asked to do more in the passing game as Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson are gone, and Gallup is a question mark for when he'll be back. While I like Jalen Tolbert as a prospect (thought he should have gone a round earlier) I don't see him and James Washington picking up the slack themselves.
Also, if Zeke goes down, Pollard has league winning upside.
12. Gerald Everett TE21 159th
This is my biggest sleeper, as I doubt Everett is drafted at all in many leagues. Jared Cook was TE15 last year, and Everett is a better player than Cook is at this stage. Everett himself was TE20 despite missing a few games, in an offense nowhere near as pass heavy as the Chargers. Based on some early draft trends, I think people are expecting a Josh Palmer breakout as the 3rd option in LA, but I think its more likely to be Everett, as a higher snap player.
Plus, if/when something happens to Allen, or Williams, Everett could be potentially be a top-2 option in possibly the best passing game in the NFL. He makes a lot more sense as a flier to me than someone like Albert O, or Mike Gesicki.
13. Kyler Murray QB6 71st
He's got a new contract, a WR upgrade, and a potentially awful defense. Its been a good offseason for Murray owners. Murray has been the QB1 each of the last 2 seasons until getting injured, and while that could arguably be the start of a trend, I'm of the belief its just been bad luck.
While Murray has spoken about running less, it wasn't really happening as he was on pace for 115 carries last year. His YPC was down, but I'm not worried about that, its not like Murray is suddenly not a huge rushing threat or anything. His 11 rushing TDs in 2020 was always a little fluky, especially with how often Kingsbury spreads the field out and calls dive plays for his RB inside the 3.
Part of me wonders if Murray's awful playoff game against the Rams has skewed opinions on him somewhat. He's quietly improved as a passer in every possibly way each year of his still young career. Only Joe Burrow had a higher completion percentage last year, and only Burrow, Garoppolo (a Shanny product in my opinion) and Stafford had a higher YPA. Murray is a great passer, and he's also a great runner. If he can stay on the field, he's basically cheaper Josh Allen in my opinion.
14. Trey Lance QB14 105th
As I said in my Murray blurb, Jimmy G was 2nd in the NFL in YPA. I believe that to be at least 75% a Kyle Shanahan stat. What Trey Lance may not have in consistency, I think he'll make up for with his ability to throw deep. If he can finish with similar passing yards and TDs to Jimmy G, which isn't farfetched in my opinion, as much of Jimmy G's work was after the catch, then Lance could be the biggest steal of drafts.
Over the last 4 seasons (adjusted pace for 17 games) 49ers QBs have averaged 4454 passing yards and 28 TD passes. Large portions of that are Nick Mullens and CJ Bethard, so that isn't an unrealistic goal for Lance, now factor in that Lance (in an admittedly miniscule sample size) ran for 168 yards in roughly 10 quarters of action last season, which is a pace that would top every QB other than Lamar Jackson. He also ran for over 1,100 yards and 14 TD's his final year of college so its not like that came out of nowhere.
Every year since 2017, there has been at least 1 2nd year QB to take the league by storm. Lance is by far the best candidate this season.
15. TJ Hockenson TE9 83rd
Hockenson was on a 94-901-6 pace when he got hurt a year ago, and that was despite defenses doubling him as often as any TE in the league after a hot start. TE is a position where guys (even top guys) are slower to develop, and I don't think we've seen Hockenson's best season yet.
Hockenson has been extremely effective inside the 10 in particular, over the last 2 seasons, he's caught 10 of 15 targets inside the 10, for 8 TD's and 2 2pt conversions. If the offense is more effective in general, it makes sense his opportunities will increase. I think he'll benefit from the offense having other receiving options around him, as I think he'll be the 1st look more often than not. I'm not dismissing St. Brown, but its notable that the majority of his production came without Hockenson or Swift in the lineup.
16. Zach Ertz TE11 111th
If you've read this far, you should have a good idea who I think is the offense to target this year. After his trade to the Cardinals, Ertz had only 1 game under 8 points, and put up at least 5 catches in each of his last 6 games, finishing as a top-10 TE in 4 of those weeks.
His 17 game Cardinals pace was: 88-884-5.
Now he gets a full offseason to learn the offense, and work with Murray. Ertz doesn't have the highest ceiling, but he's got a pretty high floor, and possibly a ceiling while Hopkins is out, but he's a guy I'd be very comfortable waiting for, instead of taking similar prospects like Schultz, Goedert, or worse prospects like Knox earlier.
1. Chris Godwin currently going WR47 110th overall.
This is simply too late for Godwin even with the chances that he is PUP to start the season. He's simply too huge of a difference maker. Godwin was WR7 on a PPG basis last season, and now Brown and Gronk are gone. Tampa Bay isn't likely to change their offense, as despite Arians leaving, I think we can safely surmise that Tom Brady is calling the shots and has been since his arrival.
Over his 2 seasons with Tom Brady, he's been on a 17 game pace of: 107-1275-9.
I think Godwin will likely be a league winner at this price as he could be putting up top-10 numbers the last 6-8 weeks of the season, after likely (but not certainly) being eased in a bit.
2. Travis Etienne RB25 62nd
He'll be over a full year removed from injury by week 1, and has no real competition for carries, unless James Robinson is somehow the greatest healer in the NFL. Etienne will likely be the centerpiece of an improved offense (how could it not be with Urban gone?) and is a rare 3-down RB, who also has big play ability, he had 16 TDs at Clemson of over 45 yards.
Truthfully, I don't really understand the huge gap between him and somebody like D'Andre Swift, who seem like they are in very similar situations, and Etienne is arguably a greater talent.
3. Russell Gage WR38 86th
He's getting a huge upgrade in offensive quality and QB quality (sorry Matt Ryan) and should see a huge workload as Godwin eases in, and maintain a good one after his return. I'm very on board with the idea of drafting both Godwin and Gage.
In 10 games without Calvin Ridley last season, Gage was on a 17 game pace of: 97-1148-5
4. Hollywood Brown WR23 54th
Hollywood was in the midst of a breakout season last year before Lamar Jackson went down. He finished WR23 last year, despite basically being used mostly as a quick screen guy once Huntley took over. His Lamar Jackson pace was 111-1403-10, which would have led to a finish above the likes of Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs.
Kyler Murray is both a better passer than Lamar Jackson, and specifically a better deep ball passer. He's made it work throwing deep to the likes of Christian Kirk and the husk of AJ Green. Brown is an upgrade from those guys, and the Cardinals have both a schedule, and a defense that screams weekly shootouts all year.
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB31 85th
This may be my most disagreed with call, judging by what I've read in both the CEH thread and the Ronald Jones thread. Personally, I'm putting a lot of weight into the idea that CEH was never truly healthy after gallbladder surgery last year, and was actually pretty decent under the circumstances. I think the Chiefs agree with that, as in my opinion, they didn't add any serious competition (to that end I was a little surprised they didn't go for someone like Melvin Gordon) only adding Ronald Jones and bringing back McKinnon.
Personally, I think McKinnon is more of an in case of emergency type of back, who can fill in for a short period, but isn't someone you ever want to count on. Other than maybe Chris Carson (who probably isn't even playing) I'm not sure there is a more injury prone RB in the NFL than McKinnon. Jones will likely have a role, but it could be the exact same role he had in Tampa, and that's assuming he stays out of Reid's doghouse, which he wasn't able to do in Tampa under Arians or Koetter.
CEH was more productive than people remember last season. His 17 game pace was 1258(total yards) and 11 TD's at 4.4 per carry, which would have been more than solid from an RB3. Now factor in that Darrell Williams and his 47 catches are gone, and I think many(most?) of those catches go to CEH and there's some real cheap upside here.
6. Treylon Burks WR48 116th
I'll get this out of the way early. I hated this pick by the Titans. I thought Burks was an overrated prospect who probably should have been picked a round later than he was. That said, boy his landing spot is excellent. Robert Woods is coming off an ACL injury and is on the wrong side of 30, and Austin Hooper is JAG.
Burks should see heavy usage from day 1. Now he's nowhere near as good as AJ Brown, hell, he may not be any better than Corey Davis was, but he'll get every opportunity to lead this team in receiving.
7. James Conner RB20 43rd
Conner had 6 games where Chase Edmonds was either out or limited last season. Conner finished as an RB1 in 5 of them. I don't think Darrell Williams or Eno Benjamin are on Chase Edmonds level, nor does anyone in the NFL based on their draft positions and FA contracts. So Conner is likely in for a bigger workload in general than he had a year ago.
The Cardinals are 3rd in the NFL in rushing TDs since Kingsbury took over, and they love to hand it to their RB inside the 3. Both Conner last year, and Drake in 2020 lead the NFL in carries inside the 3. I think 12+ TD's are pretty bankable given reasonable health.
Conner is an underrated player in my eyes, who has always played pretty well when healthy. A hot take perhaps, but I don't think the Steelers upgraded going from Conner to Najee a year ago, though I will concede they got more durable. Alas, durability is about 75% of the reason Conner is going as late as he is in my opinion, as he's missed multiple games in every season he's played.
8. Drake London WR43 99th
London was the first WR drafted this year, and was a dominant player last year at USC. He's also part of a 2 player passing game on a team that will be trailing early and often.
As I said in the Gage blurb, he was on an 1100+ yard 5 TD pace after Ridley went out, and Ridley himself (while clearly not his best self) was on a 105-955-7 pace. Even with a QB downgrade, I think there is room for London to produce alongside Kyle Pitts.
9. DeAndre Hopkins WR44 102nd
This is a twofold bet. First, this is another bet on the Cardinals having an elite offense. Secondly, this a bet that Hopkins injury issues were just a fluke and not a sign of things to come. I'm not too worried as he has been durable in the past and didn't suffer any major injuries, just a serious of smallish ones.
Hopkins wasn't seeing the dominant target share he'd seen in past last season, but he also was never really healthy, first getting hurt in week 2, and basically not practicing at any point after that.
Its not out of question Hopkins instantly assumes the #1 job when he comes back, though it likely will be a 1A/1B situation as he and Brown in theory complement each other perfectly.
10. Saquon Barkley RB13 25th
Man, last year was about the unluckiest year for him. He had 2 back to back 20+ point games, and then he, Jones, and Golladay all get hurt in the same game, with Toney going down the very next week. Barkley's injury in particular was about as fluky as it gets and in my opinion, and doesn't make him any more of an injury risk than I thought he was before.
Joe Judge and Jason Garrett may have been the most incompetent coaching staff in the NFL last year (side note, I've really begun to wonder if the Romo era Cowboys would have been a Super Bowl team with even a league average HC) and the upgrade to Brian Daboll could be the biggest coaching upgrade north of Jacksonville.
In a contract year, I think Barkley gets all the work he can handle, and could potentially lead the NFL in touches. Also, players tend to have a bounce back in year 2 after ACL surgery typically, which Barkley will be in this season. Also, while the Bengals got all the headlines for their OL upgrades, the Giants have significantly upgraded their OL as well, especially if Evan Neal hits the ground running.
Truth be told, recency bias and a perhaps misguided injury prone label, is basically the difference between Barkley and a guy like Najee Harris in my opinion.
11. Tony Pollard RB34 92nd
As somebody who tends to look for trends and comparisons, man, I see a whole lot of similarities between Zeke/Pollard and Gordon/Ekeler a few years ago. In both cases, the smaller better pass catching back got a little pigeonholed into being a COP player, because the team had such a big investment in the other guy, and much like Ekeler, I believe Pollard will prove to be the better player as soon as the team gives him the chance.
I think Pollard is very capable of making this draft cost profitable even if his role doesn't change. Dallas has the league's easiest schedule, and Pollard was RB30 last year, despite missing some games. He'll likely be asked to do more in the passing game as Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson are gone, and Gallup is a question mark for when he'll be back. While I like Jalen Tolbert as a prospect (thought he should have gone a round earlier) I don't see him and James Washington picking up the slack themselves.
Also, if Zeke goes down, Pollard has league winning upside.
12. Gerald Everett TE21 159th
This is my biggest sleeper, as I doubt Everett is drafted at all in many leagues. Jared Cook was TE15 last year, and Everett is a better player than Cook is at this stage. Everett himself was TE20 despite missing a few games, in an offense nowhere near as pass heavy as the Chargers. Based on some early draft trends, I think people are expecting a Josh Palmer breakout as the 3rd option in LA, but I think its more likely to be Everett, as a higher snap player.
Plus, if/when something happens to Allen, or Williams, Everett could be potentially be a top-2 option in possibly the best passing game in the NFL. He makes a lot more sense as a flier to me than someone like Albert O, or Mike Gesicki.
13. Kyler Murray QB6 71st
He's got a new contract, a WR upgrade, and a potentially awful defense. Its been a good offseason for Murray owners. Murray has been the QB1 each of the last 2 seasons until getting injured, and while that could arguably be the start of a trend, I'm of the belief its just been bad luck.
While Murray has spoken about running less, it wasn't really happening as he was on pace for 115 carries last year. His YPC was down, but I'm not worried about that, its not like Murray is suddenly not a huge rushing threat or anything. His 11 rushing TDs in 2020 was always a little fluky, especially with how often Kingsbury spreads the field out and calls dive plays for his RB inside the 3.
Part of me wonders if Murray's awful playoff game against the Rams has skewed opinions on him somewhat. He's quietly improved as a passer in every possibly way each year of his still young career. Only Joe Burrow had a higher completion percentage last year, and only Burrow, Garoppolo (a Shanny product in my opinion) and Stafford had a higher YPA. Murray is a great passer, and he's also a great runner. If he can stay on the field, he's basically cheaper Josh Allen in my opinion.
14. Trey Lance QB14 105th
As I said in my Murray blurb, Jimmy G was 2nd in the NFL in YPA. I believe that to be at least 75% a Kyle Shanahan stat. What Trey Lance may not have in consistency, I think he'll make up for with his ability to throw deep. If he can finish with similar passing yards and TDs to Jimmy G, which isn't farfetched in my opinion, as much of Jimmy G's work was after the catch, then Lance could be the biggest steal of drafts.
Over the last 4 seasons (adjusted pace for 17 games) 49ers QBs have averaged 4454 passing yards and 28 TD passes. Large portions of that are Nick Mullens and CJ Bethard, so that isn't an unrealistic goal for Lance, now factor in that Lance (in an admittedly miniscule sample size) ran for 168 yards in roughly 10 quarters of action last season, which is a pace that would top every QB other than Lamar Jackson. He also ran for over 1,100 yards and 14 TD's his final year of college so its not like that came out of nowhere.
Every year since 2017, there has been at least 1 2nd year QB to take the league by storm. Lance is by far the best candidate this season.
15. TJ Hockenson TE9 83rd
Hockenson was on a 94-901-6 pace when he got hurt a year ago, and that was despite defenses doubling him as often as any TE in the league after a hot start. TE is a position where guys (even top guys) are slower to develop, and I don't think we've seen Hockenson's best season yet.
Hockenson has been extremely effective inside the 10 in particular, over the last 2 seasons, he's caught 10 of 15 targets inside the 10, for 8 TD's and 2 2pt conversions. If the offense is more effective in general, it makes sense his opportunities will increase. I think he'll benefit from the offense having other receiving options around him, as I think he'll be the 1st look more often than not. I'm not dismissing St. Brown, but its notable that the majority of his production came without Hockenson or Swift in the lineup.
16. Zach Ertz TE11 111th
If you've read this far, you should have a good idea who I think is the offense to target this year. After his trade to the Cardinals, Ertz had only 1 game under 8 points, and put up at least 5 catches in each of his last 6 games, finishing as a top-10 TE in 4 of those weeks.
His 17 game Cardinals pace was: 88-884-5.
Now he gets a full offseason to learn the offense, and work with Murray. Ertz doesn't have the highest ceiling, but he's got a pretty high floor, and possibly a ceiling while Hopkins is out, but he's a guy I'd be very comfortable waiting for, instead of taking similar prospects like Schultz, Goedert, or worse prospects like Knox earlier.
