Current Era Closers and the Hall of Fame (1 Viewer)

[RnR]

We're nearing the end of the career of the 3 most recognizable closers of the last 15 seasons. Two of them have "officially" hung up the cleats, and Mariano just keeps plugging along.

So given their current bodies of work, do these guys get in the Hall of Fame?

Billy Wagner (1995-2010)

903 IP

2.31 ERA

0.99 WHIP

11.9 K/9

422 saves

Trevor Hoffman (1993-2010)

1089 IP

2.87 ERA

1.05 WHIP

9.4 K/9

601 saves

Mariano Rivera (1995- ???)

1150 IP

2.23 ERA

1.00 WHIP

8.2 K/9

559 saves

Mariano also has the added benefit of the World Series titles and post-season records, Wagner and Hoffman are without a World Championship.

 

[oso diablo]

which question should we answer? I think all 3 are HOF worthy, but only 2 of them are going to make it.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Billy Wags has no business sniffing the hall, the guy was jelly in a big spot.

And in the end, so was Hoffman, lots of high profile meltdowns.

Who cares about piling up saves, which are relatively useless as a stat?

How does Lee Smith struggle with support if those two can walk in?

 

[RnR]

which question should we answer? I think all 3 are HOF worthy, but only 2 of them are going to make it.

Will they make it? Sorry for the confusion.

 

[RnR]

Billy Wags has no business sniffing the hall, the guy was jelly in a big spot.And in the end, so was Hoffman, lots of high profile meltdowns. Who cares about piling up saves, which are relatively useless as a stat? How does Lee Smith struggle with support if those two can walk in?

Billy Wagner's stats are probably the most impressive of the 3. Not sure how you could say he was "jelly" in a big spot with over 400 saves. For comparison's sake, here's Lee Smith:Lee Smith (1980-1997)1289 IP3.03 ERA1.25 WHIP8.7 K/9478 saves

 

[Eephus]

which question should we answer? I think all 3 are HOF worthy, but only 2 of them are going to make it.

Will they make it? Sorry for the confusion.

Any question involving will they requires getting into the minds of the BBWAA and their attitudes about closers and the steroid era. I'm personally torn on closers. The role has undoubtedly taken on importance in modern baseball but we're still talking about a guy, in the case of Wagner, who has less than 1000 career IP. The key metric for closers is SV which has somewhat dubious value as a counting stat. That said, I'd vote for Rivera and probably Hoffman. Then again, I think Ray Guy belongs in the Pro Football HoF.

 

[David Yudkin]

Mo's 8-1 record and 42 saves in the post season make him a lock to go along with a 0.766 WHIP and 0.71 ERA in the playoffs in nearly 140 IP. 5 rings never hurt either.

 

[rodg12]

Mo's a slam dunk, first ballot HOFer. Hoffman will probably get in, I'm thinking. No clue on Wagner. I think the lack of 1000 IP will ultimately hurt his case.

 

[dparker713]

If Wagner stuck around for another season or 2, he'd make it. He's the best lefty closer ever by a long shot - Franco was never dominant like Wagner.

Hoffman should get in. He has both exception peak and career numbers. Plus one of the best changeups in the history of baseball.

Mo is a lock.

As for why Lee Smith isn't in, it probably has alot to do with him being a compiler. Though the writers eventually voted in Sutter, I don't think Smith ever makes it. The ballot is about to get ridiculously crowded in a few years with holdovers and new candidates, so I just don't see a year where he can get in past next season - and thats not going to happen.

 

[Eephus]

John Franco with 424 career saves (albeit worse peripherals than Wagner) was one and done on the HoF ballot.

 

[boubucarow]

Closers have reached the Hall of Fame because of impact and not stats. Fingers, Sutter, and Eckersley won the Cy Young. Gossage rose with the resurgence of the Yankees in the late 70's and was the closer on the most watched team of the period receiving Cy Young votes in multiple years. Rivera certainly has that impact with his post season dominance. Hoffman is interesting since he has the Cy Young votes but does lack the post season impact or one singular season of greatness of a Rivera, Fingers, Sutter, or Eckersley. Wagner has no chance due to the lack of impact.

It might hurt Hoffman that voters can't remember anything specific unless Hells Bells gets him in. I think he is the borderline case in the eyes of the voters.

 

[PIK95]

Billy Wags has no business sniffing the hall, the guy was jelly in a big spot.And in the end, so was Hoffman, lots of high profile meltdowns. Who cares about piling up saves, which are relatively useless as a stat? How does Lee Smith struggle with support if those two can walk in?

Billy Wagner's stats are probably the most impressive of the 3. Not sure how you could say he was "jelly" in a big spot with over 400 saves. For comparison's sake, here's Lee Smith:Lee Smith (1980-1997)1289 IP3.03 ERA1.25 WHIP8.7 K/9478 saves

Wagner had some sick sick years.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Billy Wags has no business sniffing the hall, the guy was jelly in a big spot.And in the end, so was Hoffman, lots of high profile meltdowns. Who cares about piling up saves, which are relatively useless as a stat? How does Lee Smith struggle with support if those two can walk in?

Billy Wagner's stats are probably the most impressive of the 3. Not sure how you could say he was "jelly" in a big spot with over 400 saves. For comparison's sake, here's Lee Smith:Lee Smith (1980-1997)1289 IP

He's got a 10.00 era in the postseason

 

[whoknew]

Wagner only has 900 IP. Is that really enough to make the HOF? Hoffman only has 1000 IP and Rivera 1125 IP.

I just don't know if that should be enough.

 

[RnR]

Wagner only has 900 IP. Is that really enough to make the HOF? Hoffman only has 1000 IP and Rivera 1125 IP.I just don't know if that should be enough.

Yeah, that's what makes this such an interesting discussion. The closer has become such an integral part of the game, but by nature a relief pitcher is never going to accrue enough IP to make a worthwhile comparison to starters that are Hall worthy. So how do you valuate a closer in terms of the HOF? Accept the lack of innings pitched and chose the best of that position, or ignore the position altogether?

 

[PIK95]

Wagner only has 900 IP. Is that really enough to make the HOF? Hoffman only has 1000 IP and Rivera 1125 IP.I just don't know if that should be enough.

Yeah, that's what makes this such an interesting discussion. The closer has become such an integral part of the game, but by nature a relief pitcher is never going to accrue enough IP to make a worthwhile comparison to starters that are Hall worthy. So how do you valuate a closer in terms of the HOF? Accept the lack of innings pitched and chose the best of that position, or ignore the position altogether?

Your gonna just ignore the closers? That's silly. You compare them to each other. All three of these guys get in imo with Hoff being the weakest. I hate the Yanks but I would vote. in Mo before Jeter without a doubt.

 

[Michael Brown]

Wagner only has 900 IP. Is that really enough to make the HOF? Hoffman only has 1000 IP and Rivera 1125 IP.

I just don't know if that should be enough.

Yeah, that's what makes this such an interesting discussion. The closer has become such an integral part of the game, but by nature a relief pitcher is never going to accrue enough IP to make a worthwhile comparison to starters that are Hall worthy. So how do you valuate a closer in terms of the HOF? Accept the lack of innings pitched and chose the best of that position, or ignore the position altogether?

Your gonna just ignore the closers? That's silly. You compare them to each other. All three of these guys get in imo with Hoff being the weakest. I hate the Yanks but I would vote. in Mo before Jeter without a doubt.

I agree that you can't ignore a position entirely just because it's not as important, but I don't think it's as easy as comparing them to each other and picking the best. It goes to the discussion about Edgar Martinez. Sure, he was the best DH of his era. But the problem is that there were no other great DHs. Edgar was an excellent hitter, but should he get in just because he's the tallest midget? I think if you're going to make it in SOLELY as a DH, you need to put up otherworldly stats (think Frank Thomas, Pujols type numbers, etc). Just like if you're going to make it in as a closer, you need to be well above and beyond the field.Mariano is above and beyond the field of other relievers, but Edgar has a number of other hitters from his era right alongside him in terms of career stats. Two similar hitters from his era on BBR were John Olerud and Moises Alou. Those guys aren't coming close to sniffing 75% of the vote and they played the field. Edgar was a better hitter than each, but not SO much better that he deserves to get in when he only played half the time they did and only at a modestly better level at the plate.

Same with guys like Hoffman and Wagner. They didn't dominate the way Rivera did nor did they do it in as many postseason spots. I think hoffman gets in, but I don't necessarily agree that he should be.

 

[dparker713]

I think if you're going to make it in SOLELY as a DH, you need to put up otherworldly stats (think Frank Thomas, Pujols type numbers, etc).

Paul Molitor already got in and he was primarily a DH. And its not like Edgar never played in the field. He was primarily a DH, but he did start out as a 3B.

 

[David Yudkin]

Part of the issue that I have is that "saves" is mostly a fabricated and made up category to begin with. To start an inning, you only need to get 3 outs without giving up 3 runs to earn a save (if up by that many runs). Similarly, you could enter a game up by 5 runs and earn a save if the bases were loaded and you only needed one out. Come in for the last out of the 8th and have your team explode for 10 runs and you also get a save (if you entered in a save situation).

So unless a closer had killer peripheral numbers, I don't think many of them should get inducted. Like Michael said, it's like the DH spot. Are voters really going to reward guys that only batted for most of their careers?

For the guys listed here, here are some other metrics to consider. For players with at least 1000 IP, Rivera leads all pitchers in history in terms of Adjusted ERA+ score. Wagner would rank second if he qualifies (short by 97 innings). Hoffman ranks 14th and Lee Smith #131. It's tough to compare these guys to starters when they've pitched 20-30% of the innings as long term starting pitchers.

In terms of WAR score, Rivera ranks 69th among all pitchers while Hoffman clocks in at 215, Smith at 222, and Wagner at 238.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think if you're going to make it in SOLELY as a DH, you need to put up otherworldly stats (think Frank Thomas, Pujols type numbers, etc).

Paul Molitor already got in and he was primarily a DH. And its not like Edgar never played in the field. He was primarily a DH, but he did start out as a 3B.

Molitor played 1497 games in the field. Thomas played 971. Martinez played 592. Edgar played about 3.5 full seasons in the field.

 

[dparker713]

I think if you're going to make it in SOLELY as a DH, you need to put up otherworldly stats (think Frank Thomas, Pujols type numbers, etc).

Paul Molitor already got in and he was primarily a DH. And its not like Edgar never played in the field. He was primarily a DH, but he did start out as a 3B.

Molitor played 1497 games in the field. Thomas played 971. Martinez played 592. Edgar played about 3.5 full seasons in the field.

In 10 of his 21 seasons he had the most games as a DH. He played more games at DH than any other position - atleast 1168. Next closest was 791 at 3B. He was only an above average hitter until he moved to DH full time at age 30. Molitor is in because of his contributions as a DH, not as a good 3B.

 

[PIK95]

Wagner was DOMINANT!

 

[Statorama]

Mo's 8-1 record and 42 saves in the post season make him a lock to go along with a 0.766 WHIP and 0.71 ERA in the playoffs in nearly 140 IP. 5 rings never hurt either.

He's a certain first-balloter

 

[David Yudkin]

I think if you're going to make it in SOLELY as a DH, you need to put up otherworldly stats (think Frank Thomas, Pujols type numbers, etc).

Paul Molitor already got in and he was primarily a DH. And its not like Edgar never played in the field. He was primarily a DH, but he did start out as a 3B.

Molitor played 1497 games in the field. Thomas played 971. Martinez played 592. Edgar played about 3.5 full seasons in the field.

In 10 of his 21 seasons he had the most games as a DH. He played more games at DH than any other position - atleast 1168. Next closest was 791 at 3B. He was only an above average hitter until he moved to DH full time at age 30. Molitor is in because of his contributions as a DH, not as a good 3B.

The point was not that Molitor was a great fielder but that he played in over 900 more games in the field than Edgar did. Obviously Molitor played a lot of games at DH, but he had almost 10 years worth of games as a fielder.

 

[dparker713]

I think if you're going to make it in SOLELY as a DH, you need to put up otherworldly stats (think Frank Thomas, Pujols type numbers, etc).

Paul Molitor already got in and he was primarily a DH. And its not like Edgar never played in the field. He was primarily a DH, but he did start out as a 3B.

Molitor played 1497 games in the field. Thomas played 971. Martinez played 592. Edgar played about 3.5 full seasons in the field.

In 10 of his 21 seasons he had the most games as a DH. He played more games at DH than any other position - atleast 1168. Next closest was 791 at 3B. He was only an above average hitter until he moved to DH full time at age 30. Molitor is in because of his contributions as a DH, not as a good 3B.

The point was not that Molitor was a great fielder but that he played in over 900 more games in the field than Edgar did. Obviously Molitor played a lot of games at DH, but he had almost 10 years worth of games as a fielder.

That was not the point. The point was that we don't need a hypothetical benchmark for a DH to be worthy of HOF induction. We already have a benchmark - Paul Molitor. If you had to designate Molitor to one position, it would be DH and its not particularly close. Likewise, we already have benchmarks for HOF closers, so determining probability of HOF induction is just a matter of comparing players against those benchmarks.

 

[David Yudkin]

That was not the point. The point was that we don't need a hypothetical benchmark for a DH to be worthy of HOF induction. We already have a benchmark - Paul Molitor. If you had to designate Molitor to one position, it would be DH and its not particularly close. Likewise, we already have benchmarks for HOF closers, so determining probability of HOF induction is just a matter of comparing players against those benchmarks.

If as you suggest Molitor is the benchmark for DHs, a case could be made that the baseline is playing 1500 games in the field as a frame of reference. He played 1186 games at DH vs 1497 games in the field. IMO, he didn't make the HOF as a DH. He made it as a combination as a DH and as a position player. Martinez played 593 games at 1B/3B and and 1462 games as a DH. His ratio is far more weighted to being a DH. Molitor was a DH for 44% of his career vs. 71% for Martinez.

 

[Michael Brown]

That was not the point. The point was that we don't need a hypothetical benchmark for a DH to be worthy of HOF induction. We already have a benchmark - Paul Molitor. If you had to designate Molitor to one position, it would be DH and its not particularly close. Likewise, we already have benchmarks for HOF closers, so determining probability of HOF induction is just a matter of comparing players against those benchmarks.

If as you suggest Molitor is the benchmark for DHs, a case could be made that the baseline is playing 1500 games in the field as a frame of reference. He played 1186 games at DH vs 1497 games in the field. IMO, he didn't make the HOF as a DH. He made it as a combination as a DH and as a position player. Martinez played 593 games at 1B/3B and and 1462 games as a DH. His ratio is far more weighted to being a DH. Molitor was a DH for 44% of his career vs. 71% for Martinez.

Plus Molitor had over 3,300 hits so he was getting into the HOF no matter what position he played or didn't play.Sorry to the OP for sidetracking the conversation, let's get it back on track...I was just using the DH thing as an example to counter a point, not to open a debate on the DHs.

 

[dparker713]

That was not the point. The point was that we don't need a hypothetical benchmark for a DH to be worthy of HOF induction. We already have a benchmark - Paul Molitor. If you had to designate Molitor to one position, it would be DH and its not particularly close. Likewise, we already have benchmarks for HOF closers, so determining probability of HOF induction is just a matter of comparing players against those benchmarks.

If as you suggest Molitor is the benchmark for DHs, a case could be made that the baseline is playing 1500 games in the field as a frame of reference. He played 1186 games at DH vs 1497 games in the field. IMO, he didn't make the HOF as a DH. He made it as a combination as a DH and as a position player. Martinez played 593 games at 1B/3B and and 1462 games as a DH. His ratio is far more weighted to being a DH. Molitor was a DH for 44% of his career vs. 71% for Martinez.

Take a look at his years as a position player. He was above average, good even. He wasn't close to HOF levels though. He's in because he was a great DH, any time he spent in the field was incidental to his candidacy.